Systemic risk factors contribute differently to the development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy and clinically significant macular oedema

Nonlinear association between remnant cholesterol and reversion from impaired fasting glucose to normoglycemia: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Remnant cholesterol (RC), a potent atherogenic lipid, has been shown to be strongly correlated with insulin resistance and the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus. However, the relationship between RC and normoglycemia reversal in individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is crucial and remains unclear. This investigation, which aimed to clarify this association, is important for understanding and potentially improving the management of diabetes.

METHOD

This study, which included 15,019 IFG participants from 11 Chinese cities between 2010 and 2016, was conducted with a rigorous research process. Cox regression analysis revealed intriguing findings regarding the relationship between RC and normoglycemia reversal in individuals with IFG. Potential nonlinear associations were further explored via smooth curve-fitting techniques and 4-knot restricted cubic spline functions, ensuring a comprehensive analysis. To examine the validity of the results, an array of subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted, further bolstering the robustness of the findings.

RESULTS

By the end of the 2.89-year median follow-up period, 6,483 of the 15,019 IFG participants (43.17%) had reverted to normoglycemia. The findings, which reveal that increased RC levels are inversely associated with the likelihood of normoglycemia reversal, are novel and significant. According to the fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model analysis, an increase of one standard deviation in RC was associated with a 20% decrease in the likelihood of normoglycemia reversal among IFG participants (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.77-0.82). A nonlinear association between RC and normoglycemia reversal was observed, with an inflection point at 41.37 mg/dL. This suggests that the growth rate of the likelihood of reversion decreased and stabilized after the inflection point was reached. Moreover, significant interactions were observed between the age groups, providing a more nuanced understanding of this complex relationship.

CONCLUSION

Among Chinese adults with IFG, RC exhibited a negative nonlinear relationship with the probability of normoglycemia reversal. When RC levels reached or exceeded 41.38 mg/dL, the probability of achieving normoglycemia progressively diminished and subsequently stabilized. Maintaining RC levels below 41.38 mg/dL can significantly improve the probability of normoglycemia reversal among individuals with IFG, especially those aged 60 years or older.

Individualised screening for diabetic retinopathy with proliferative retinopathy and macular oedema as separate end points

PURPOSE

A number of algorithms have been developed to calculate screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy on the basis of individual risk factors. However, these approaches have not considered proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and diabetic macular oedema (DME) as separate end points and death as competing risk.

METHODS

A multi-state survival model with death as competing risk was used to predict the screening interval for diabetic retinopathy based on information about all 2446 patients from a well-defined population who had started treatment for either PDR or DME during 25 years. The performance of the model was tested on the existing database and at seven screening sites on patients who had not developed a treatment requiring condition.

RESULTS

Testing on the existing database showed that at a risk level of 2% the algorithm could predict a screening interval with a success rate higher than 90% and a 1.75 times average prolongation of the screening interval without failing to detect the development of verified PDR og DME. The model was limited to a diabetes duration shorter than 40 years and depended on knowledge of relevant risk factors. At the other participating screening sites the algorithm predicted shorter intervals than the screener.

CONCLUSIONS

Algorithms for individualised screening for diabetic retinopathy can prolong screening intervals without losing patients who develop a vision threatening condition. The calculation of screening intervals requires access to relevant risk factors and should be developed on large data sets that reflect the population in which the algorithm should be used.

Socioeconomic Disparities and Emergency Department Visits for Diabetic Retinopathy in California

Purpose: To investigate the association between neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors, quantified by the Distressed Communities Index, and emergency department visits for diabetic retinopathy (DR). Methods: All patients who presented to the emergency department for DR in California were analyzed using the State Emergency Department Database (2018-2020). Patients were stratified by Distressed Communities Index score and DR severity. Logistic regression was applied to explore the independent correlation between Distressed Communities Index scores and proliferative DR (PDR). Results: Of 2 725 195 emergency department visits for diabetic patients, Distressed Communities Index data were available for 2 459 577 (90.3%); 39 693 were for DR, including 13 617 (34.3%) for PDR. Hispanics (44.2%) were the largest racial/ethnic group to present for PDR, followed by non-Hispanic Whites (19.6%) and non-Hispanic Blacks (19.3%). A significant association was observed between the Distressed Communities Index and emergency department visits for PDR, with distressed neighborhoods having the highest incidence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.63; 95% CI, 1.20-2.23; P = .001). Other predictors included Hispanic ethnicity (aOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.97-2.48; P < .001) and Black race (aOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.28-1.67; P < .001) compared with White race and having Medicaid (aOR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.13-1.65; P = .001) compared with private insurance. Conclusions: The Distressed Communities Index identified patients residing in the most distressed neighborhoods as being at the highest risk for presenting to the emergency department for PDR based on 7 socioeconomic factors. Policymakers may consider the Distressed Communities Index as a tool for targeting DR prevention strategies and improving healthcare accessibility.

Stroke incidence increases with diabetic retinopathy severity and macular edema in type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND

As the retina is suggested to mirror the brain, we hypothesized that diabetic retinopathy and macular edema are indicative of stroke risk in type 1 diabetes and sought to assess this association in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We included 1,268 adult FinnDiane Study participants with type 1 diabetes (age 38.7 ± 11.8 years, 51.7% men vs. 48.3% women, and 31.5% had diabetic kidney disease), data on baseline diabetic retinopathy severity, and first stroke during our observational follow-up. Retinopathy was graded by the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) scale, and macular edema as clinically significant (CSME) or not. Strokes identified from registries were confirmed from medical files. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for stroke by retinopathy severity and CSME were calculated by Cox models adjusted for clinical confounders, including diabetic kidney disease.

RESULTS

During median 18.0 (14.1-19.3) follow-up years, 130 strokes (96 ischemic, 34 hemorrhagic) occurred. With no-very mild (ETDRS 10-20) retinopathy as reference, the adjusted HR for stroke was 1.79 (95%CI 1.02-3.15) in non-proliferative (ETDRS 35-53), and 1.69 (1.02-2.82) in proliferative (ETDRS 61-85) retinopathy. Corresponding adjusted HR for ischemic stroke was 1.68 (0.91-3.10) in non-proliferative and 1.35 (0.77-2.36) in proliferative retinopathy. The adjusted HR for hemorrhagic stroke was 2.84 (0.66-12.28) in non-proliferative and 4.31 (1.16-16.10) in proliferative retinopathy. CSME did not increase HR for any stroke type after adjustment for clinical confounders (data not shown).

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke incidence increases with the severity of diabetic retinopathy independently of comorbid conditions, including diabetic kidney disease.

Five-Year Incidence of Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy and Associated Risk Factors in a Nationwide Cohort of 201 945 Danish Patients with Diabetes

Purpose

To evaluate the proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) progression rates and identify the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who later developed PDR compared with patients who did not progress to that state.

Design

A national 5-year register-based cohort study including 201 945 patients with diabetes.

Subjects

Patients with diabetes who had attended the Danish national screening program (2013-2018) for diabetic retinopathy (DR).

Methods

We used the first screening episode as the index date and included both eyes of patients with and without subsequent progression of PDR. Data were linked with various national health registries to investigate relevant clinical and demographic parameters. The International Clinical Retinopathy Disease Scale was used to classify DR, with no DR as level 0, mild DR as level 1, moderate DR as level 2, severe DR as level 3, and PDR as level 4.

Main Outcome Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident PDR for all relevant demographic and clinical parameters and 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidence rates of PDR according to baseline DR level.

Results

Progression to PDR within 5 years was identified in 2384 eyes of 1780 patients. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy progression rates from baseline DR level 3 at 1, 3 and 5 years were 3.6%, 10.9%, and 14.7%, respectively. The median number of visits was 3 (interquartile range, 1-4). Progression to PDR was predicted in a multivariable model by duration of diabetes (HR, 4.66 per 10 years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.05-5.37), type 1 diabetes (HR, 9.61; 95% CI, 8.01-11.53), a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of > 0 (score 1: HR, 4.62; 95% CI, 4.14-5.15; score 2: HR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.90-2.74; score ≥ 3: HR, 4.28; 95% CI, 3.54-5.17), use of insulin (HR, 5.33; 95% CI, 4.49-6.33), and use of antihypertensive medications (HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.90-2.61).

Conclusions

In a 5-year longitudinal study of an entire screening nation, we found increased risk of PDR with increasing baseline DR levels, longer duration of diabetes, type 1 diabetes, systemic comorbidity, use of insulin, and blood pressure-lowering medications. Most interestingly, we found lower risk of progression from DR level 3 to PDR compared with that in previous studies.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Oxidative Stress, Inflammatory, Angiogenic, and Apoptotic molecules in Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy and Diabetic Macular Edema Patients

The aim of this study is to evaluate molecules involved in oxidative stress (OS), inflammation, angiogenesis, and apoptosis, and discern which of these are more likely to be implicated in proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and diabetic macular edema (DME) by investigating the correlation between them in the plasma (PLS) and vitreous body (VIT), as well as examining data obtained from ophthalmological examinations. Type 2 diabetic (T2DM) patients with PDR/DME (PDRG/DMEG; n = 112) and non-DM subjects as the surrogate controls (SCG n = 48) were selected according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria and programming for vitrectomy, either due to having PDR/DME or macular hole (MH)/epiretinal membrane (ERM)/rhegmatogenous retinal detachment. Blood samples were collected and processed to determine the glycemic profile, total cholesterol, and C reactive protein, as well as the malondialdehyde (MDA), 4-hydroxynonenal (4HNE), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and catalase (CAT) levels and total antioxidant capacity (TAC). In addition, interleukin 6 (IL6), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and caspase 3 (CAS3) were assayed. The VITs were collected and processed to measure the expression levels of all the abovementioned molecules. Statistical analyses were conducted using the R Core Team (2022) program, including group comparisons and correlation analyses. Compared with the SCG, our findings support the presence of molecules involved in OS, inflammation, angiogenesis, and apoptosis in the PLS and VIT samples from T2DM. In PLS from PDRG, there was a decrease in the antioxidant load (p < 0.001) and an increase in pro-angiogenic molecules (p < 0.001), but an increase in pro-oxidants (p < 0.001) and a decline in antioxidants (p < 0.001) intravitreally. In PLS from DMEG, pro-oxidants and pro-inflammatory molecules were augmented (p < 0.001) and the antioxidant capacity diminished (p < 0.001), but the pro-oxidants increased (p < 0.001) and antioxidants decreased (p < 0.001) intravitreally. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between the PLS-CAT and the VIT-SOD levels (rho = 0.5; p < 0.01) in PDRG, and a negative correlation between the PSD-4HNE and the VIT-TAC levels (rho = 0.5; p < 0.01) in DMEG. Integrative data of retinal imaging variables showed a positive correlation between the central subfield foveal thickness (CSFT) and the VIT-SOD levels (rho = 0.5; p < 0.01), and a negative correlation between the CSFT and the VIT-4HNE levels (rho = 0.4; p < 0.01) in PDRG. In DMEG, the CSFT displayed a negative correlation with the VIT-CAT (rho = 0.5; p < 0.01). Exploring the relationship of the abovementioned potential biomarkers between PLS and VIT may help detecting early molecular changes in PDR/DME, which can be used to identify patients at high risk of progression, as well as to monitor therapeutic outcomes in the diabetic retina.

Dynamic nomogram prediction model for diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

To develop a dynamic prediction model for diabetic retinopathy (DR) using systemic risk factors.

METHODS

This retrospective study included type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients discharged from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University between May 2020 and February 2022. The early patients (80%) were used for the training set and the late ones (20%) for the validation set.

RESULTS

Finally, 1257 patients (1049 [80%] in the training set and 208 [20%] in the validation set) were included; 360 (28.6%) of them had DR. The areas under the curves (AUCs) for the multivariate regression (MR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO), and backward elimination stepwise regression (BESR) models were 0.719, 0.727, and 0.728, respectively. The Delong test showed that the BESR model had a better predictive value than the MR (p = 0.04899) and LASSO (P = 0.04999) models. The DR nomogram risk model was established according to the BESR model, and it included disease duration, age at onset, treatment method, total cholesterol, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and urine sugar. The AUC, kappa coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, and compliance of the nomogram risk model in the validation set were 0.79, 0.48, 71.2%, 78.9%, and 76.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively reliable DR nomogram risk model was established based on the BESR model.

Visual acuity and causes of central visual loss in the adult Danish population 2020-2022. Results from the FORSYN study

PURPOSE

Knowledge of visual health in the population is necessary for designing and implementing measures to handle visual handicap. The purpose of the FORSYN (Forekomst af synshandicap og synshjaelpemidler i Danmark) project was to study visual health in the Danish population 2020-2022 after implementation of the recent advances in the management of choroidal and retinal vascular disease. The present study reports visual acuity and causes of central visual loss from this study.

METHODS

A population-representative sample of 10 350 citizens living within 40 kilometres from Aarhus University Hospital were invited to answer a questionnaire about quality of life related to vision, measurement of visual acuity and a non-mydriatic examination of the eyes. The data were corrected for selection bias on the basis of demographic and socioeconomic factors so that the results could be projected to represent the adult Danish population.

RESULTS

Population-adjusted visual acuity in ETDRS letters (mean ± SD) differed significantly (p < 0.0001) among the worse eye (84.1 ± 0.25), the better eye (88.4 ± 0.11) and binocularly (89.2 ± 0.15). Social blindness affected 0.22% (95% CI: 0.14%-0.33%) of the population and was in none of the studied persons due to exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) or diabetic retinopathy. The most frequent causes of visual loss were atrophic AMD, neuro-ophthalmic disorders and other chorioretinal diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent advances in the therapy of chorioretinal vascular diseases have been paralleled with a reduction in central vision loss secondary to exudative AMD and diabetic retinopathy in Denmark. The demographic development can be expected to increase the demand for treatments of vision-threatening diseases that mainly affect older persons.

Nomogram-based prediction of clinically significant macular edema in diabetes mellitus patients

AIMS

The aim of the study was to construct and validate a risk nomogram for clinically significant macular edema (CSME) prediction in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients using systemic variables.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, DM inpatients who underwent routine diabetic retinopathy screening were recruited and divided into training and validation sets according to their admission date. Ninety-three demographic and systemic variables were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select the predictive variables from the training set. The selected variables were used to construct the CSME prediction nomogram. Internal and external validations were performed. The C-index, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were reported.

RESULTS

A total of 349 patients were divided into the training set (240, 68.77%) and the validation set (109, 31.23%). The presence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) symptoms, uric acid, use of insulin only or not for treatment, insulin dosage, urinary protein grade and disease duration were chosen for the nomogram. The C-index of the prediction nomogram was 0.896, 0.878 and 0.837 in the training set, internal validation and external validation, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good agreement between the predicted and actual outcomes. DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram with good performance for predicting CSME using systemic variables was developed. It suggested that DPN symptoms and renal function may be crucial risk factors for CSME. Moreover, this nomogram may be a convenient tool for non-ophthalmic specialists to rapidly recognize CSME in patients and to transfer them to ophthalmologists for early diagnosis and treatment.

Gene Biomarkers Related to Th17 Cells in Macular Edema of Diabetic Retinopathy: Cutting-Edge Comprehensive Bioinformatics Analysis and In Vivo Validation

Background

Previous studies have shown that T-helper 17 (Th17) cell-related cytokines are significantly increased in the vitreous of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), suggesting that Th17 cells play an important role in the inflammatory response of diabetic retinopathy (DR), but its cell infiltration and gene correlation in the retina of DR, especially in diabetic macular edema (DME), have not been studied.

Methods

The dataset GSE160306 was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, which contains 9 NPDR samples and 10 DME samples. ImmuCellAI algorithm was used to estimate the abundance of Th17 cells in 24 kinds of infiltrating immune cells. The differentially expressed Th17 related genes (DETh17RGs) between NPDR and DME were documented by difference analysis and correlation analysis. Through aggregate analyses such as gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genome (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis, a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed to analyze the potential function of DETh17RGs. CytoHubba plug-in algorithm, Lasso regression analysis and support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) were implemented to comprehensively identify Hub DETh17RGs. The expression archetypes of Hub DETh17RGs were further verified in several other independent datasets related to DR. The Th17RG score was defined as the genetic characterization of six Hub DETh17RGs using the GSVA sample score method, which was used to distinguish early and advanced diabetic nephropathy (DN) as well as normal and diabetic nephropathy. Finally, real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) was implemented to verify the transcription levels of Hub DETh17RGs in the STZ-induced DR model mice (C57BL/6J).

Results

238 DETh17RGs were identified, of which 212 genes were positively correlated while only 26 genes were negatively correlated. Six genes (CD44, CDC42, TIMP1, BMP7, RHOC, FLT1) were identified as Hub DETh17RGs. Because DR and DN have a strong correlation in clinical practice, the verification of multiple independent datasets related to DR and DN proved that Hub DETh17RGs can not only distinguish PDR patients from normal people, but also distinguish DN patients from normal people. It can also identify the initial and advanced stages of the two diseases (NPDR vs DME, Early DN vs Advanced DN). Except for CDC42 and TIMP1, the qPCR transcription levels and trends of other Hub DETh17RGs in STZ-induced DR model mice were consistent with the human transcriptome level in this study.

Conclusion

This study will improve our understanding of Th17 cell-related molecular mechanisms in the progression of DME. At the same time, it also provides an updated basis for the molecular mechanism of Th17 cell crosstalk in the eye and kidney in diabetes.

Retinal venular oxygen saturation is associated with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy in young patients with type 1 diabetes

PURPOSE

To determine the contribution of retinal vessel density (VD), central retinal vessel diameter and retinal oxygen (O₂ ) saturation independently of other known risk factors in the development of non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR).

METHODS

Macular optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA), central retinal artery/vein equivalent diameter (CRAE/CRVE) measurements and retinal oximetry were performed in a cross-sectional study of 166 eyes from 166 individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) aged 14-30 years. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to investigate whether O₂ saturation, retinal vessel diameters and vessel density in the deep capillary plexus (VD-DCP) were associated with NPDR, when adjusting for known risk factors. The individuals were allocated to one group without and one group with NPDR.

RESULTS

Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.49) and AV-difference in O₂ saturation (OR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93) were significantly associated with NPDR.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that age and lower AV-O₂ saturation difference contribute to explaining the grade of NPDR independently of other well-known risk factors. Reduced delivery of O₂ to the retinal tissue is associated with the development of NPDR in young patients with T1D and should be given appropriate weight in the risk stratification at early stages of the disease.

The risk for developing vision-threatening retinopathy after cataract surgery in diabetic patients depends on the postoperative follow-up time

PURPOSE

To identify parameters that can predict the postoperative risk for progression of retinopathy to a vision-threatening stage after cataract surgery. This may optimize the timing of surgery and the postoperative follow-up strategy in diabetic patients.

METHODS

Multi-state survival analysis with death as competing risk was used to investigate how year of onset and age of onset of diabetes, gender, body mass index, HbA1c and blood pressure had affected the risk for developing diabetic macular oedema (DME) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) among 2540 right eyes from 2797 diabetic patients operated for cataract on one or both eyes during 25 years until July 1. 2019.

RESULTS

Cataract surgery had been performed in 98.8% of patients reaching 90 years of age. The risk for developing both DME and PDR was increased by cataract surgery. The risk was highest during the first postoperative years and increased by pre-operative variability in HbA1c. The risk after more than 20 years postoperatively increased by increased cumulative HbA1c pre-operatively. The other studied risk factors contributed differently to the development of the two complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision models for the timing of cataract surgery in diabetic patients should consider that the risk for developing vision-threatening retinopathy depends on follow-up time. Differences in the risk profiles for developing DME and PDR after cataract surgery support that the two complications should be regarded as separate late complications.

The risk for developing vision threatening diabetic retinopathy is influenced by heredity to diabetes

Purpose: Clustering of vision threatening diabetic retinopathy within specific families can be the result of similarities in life style but may also be due to a common genetic background. An evaluation of the role of heredity for the development of diabetic retinopathy may help adjusting control intervals in screening programmes to each patient's individual risk profile.Methods: Survival analysis was used to study whether family history of diabetes among men and women with type 1 or type 2 diabetes together with the degree of heredity could be added as risk factors to improve the prediction of the risk for developing proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and diabetic macular edema (DME). The study was conducted on data from 12,281 patients followed in the Aarhus area, Denmark, from January 1. 2003 to July 1. 2019.Results: The risk for developing PDR was significantly reduced 2-11 years after known onset of diabetes in the presence of female family members with type 1 diabetes, and the risk for developing DME significantly increased 4-24 years after onset of diabetes in the presence of family members with type 2 diabetes of any sex. These hereditary factors were independent of other studied risk factors such as previous cataract surgery, age of onset of diabetes, metabolic regulation and blood pressure.Conclusions: The presence of family members with diabetes affects the risk for developing vision threatening diabetic retinopathy and affects the risk for developing PDR and DME differently. This evidence may help individualizing the control intervals in screening programmes for diabetic retinopathy.

Increasing metabolic variability increases the risk for vitrectomy in proliferative diabetic retinopathy

PURPOSE

Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) can be treated by retinal photocoagulation, but in some cases, the treatment is initiated too late or is insufficient so that the disease advances to a stage requiring vitrectomy. There is a need to identify risk factors that can predict if patients with PDR will develop complications in need for vitrectomy.

METHODS

Survival analysis with death as competing risk was used to study systemic risk factors for PDR progression to a complication in need for vitrectomy in right eyes of all 1288 diabetic patients from the Aarhus area, Denmark, who had developed proliferative retinopathy in the right eye during the 25 years period from 1 July 1994 until 1 July 2019.

RESULTS

The overall cumulative incidence of reaching a vitrectomy end point in the right eye was 24.1% (n = 311). In 9.3% (n = 120) of the patients where vitrectomy had been performed together with the first photocoagulation, the age of onset of diabetes was significantly higher (p < 0.0001), the diabetes duration longer (p < 0.035) and BMI higher (p < 0.01) than in the patients who had been vitrectomized later than the first photocoagulation. The risk for vitrectomy was significantly increased by high variability of HbA1c before the development of PDR (p < 0.0001), but not by other parameters known to increase the risk for developing PDR.

CONCLUSION

Increasing variability of HbA1c before the development of PDR increases the risk for progression to a complication in need of vitrectomy. The need for vitrectomy is unaffected by other risk factors known to increase the risk for developing PDR.

Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort

Background /Aims

To evaluate the performance of existing prediction models to determine risk of progression to referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) using data from a prospective Irish cohort of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

A cohort of 939 people with T2D followed prospectively was used to test the performance of risk prediction models developed in Gloucester, UK, and Iceland. Observed risk of progression to RDR in the Irish cohort was compared with that derived from each of the prediction models evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic curves assessed models’ performance.

Results

The cohort was followed for a total of 2929 person years during which 2906 screening episodes occurred. Among 939 individuals followed, there were 40 referrals (4%) for diabetic maculopathy, pre-proliferative DR and proliferative DR. The original Gloucester model, which includes results of two consecutive retinal screenings; a model incorporating, in addition, systemic biomarkers (HbA1c and serum cholesterol); and a model including results of one retinopathy screening, HbA1c, total cholesterol and duration of diabetes, had acceptable discriminatory power (area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69, 0.76 and 0.77, respectively). The Icelandic model, which combined retinopathy grading, duration and type of diabetes, HbA1c and systolic blood pressure, performed very similarly (AUC of 0.74).

Conclusion

In an Irish cohort of people with T2D, the prediction models tested had an acceptable performance identifying those at risk of progression to RDR. These risk models would be useful in establishing more personalised screening intervals for people with T2D.