Viability of compact cities in the post-COVID-19 era: subway ridership variations in Seoul Korea

Social and spatial heterogeneities in COVID-19 impacts on individual's metro use: A big-data driven causality inference

While mobility intervention policies implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on public transit use, few studies have investigated the individual-level responses in metro transit riding behaviors. Using long time-series cellphone big data from frequent metro users in Shenzhen, China, we developed a quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) design to estimate the treatment effects of mobility intervention policies on people's daily shares of metro transit use (SMU). The results indicate that the first-level emergency response (FLR) and the public transit restriction (PTR) policy yielded abrupt drops in SMU of 8.0% and 17.6%, respectively, whereas the return-to-work (RTW) order had an immediate recovery effect of 14.5%. The effect of the FLR is time-decreasing while those effects of the PTR and the RTW are time-increasing. Females and elderly people living in neighborhoods near the city center with low population density and fewer transit stations are more adaptable to policy interventions for reducing SMUs, while the recovery effect of RTW is relatively low for the elderly living in less mixed-use neighborhoods with reduced transit service. These findings can help policymakers design more socially- and spatially-precise and equity mobility intervention policies during a pandemic.

Measuring the effects of Compactness/Sprawl on COVID 19 spread patterns at the neighborhood level

This study analyzes the compactness/sprawl index and its effects on the spread of COVID-19 in the neighborhoods of Ahvaz, Iran. Multiple Criteria Decision Making and GIS techniques were used to develop the index. Also, the effects of compactness/sprawl on COVID-19 were investigated using a regression model. It was found that when considering the number of COVID-19 cases per 1000 people, the compactness/sprawl index did not affect the spread of the disease. However, it had a low but significant effect if the raw number of cases was considered. Results also showed that the compactness index significantly affected the raw number of cases, with a coefficient of 0.291, indicating that more compact neighborhoods had more COVID-19 cases. This is unsurprising as more people live in compact areas and, therefore, the raw number of cases is also likely to be higher. In the absence of proper control measures, this could result in further contact between people, thereby, increasing the risk of virus spread. Overall, we found that compactness had a dual effect on the spread of COVID-19 in Ahvaz. We conclude that proper development and implementation of control measures in well-designed compact neighborhoods are essential for enhancing pandemic resilience.

Do the determinants of COVID-19 transmission differ by epidemic wave? Evidence from U.S. counties

This paper uses data from the United States to examine determinants of the spread of COVID-19 during three different epidemic waves. We address how sociodemographic and economic attributes, industry composition, density, crowding in housing, and COVID-19-related variables are associated with the transmission of COVID-19. After controlling for spatial autocorrelation, our findings indicate that the percentage of people in poverty, number of restaurants, and percentage of workers teleworking were associated with the COVID-19 incidence rate during all three waves. Our results also show that dense areas were more vulnerable to the transmission of COVID-19 after the first epidemic wave. Regarding the density of supermarkets, our study elaborates the negative aspects of wholesale retail stores, which likely provide a vulnerable place for virus transmission. Our results suggest that sociodemographic and economic attributes were the determinants of the early phase of the pandemic, while density showed positive association with the transmission during subsequent waves. We provide implications for regions serving as gateway cities with high density and number of population. To add, we further provide evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early stage may mitigate the virus transmission.

Unraveling the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on metro ridership: An empirical analysis of Beijing and Shanghai, China

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had severely disruptive impacts on transportation, particularly public transit. To understand metro ridership changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of two Chinese megacities from January 1, 2020, to August 31, 2021. Generalized linear models are used to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on metro ridership. The dependent variable is the relative change in metro ridership, and the independent variables include COVID-19, socio-economic, and weather variables. The results suggested the following: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic has a significantly negative effect on the relative change in metro ridership, and the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases within 14 days performs better in regression models, which reflects the existence of the time lag effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Emergency responses are negatively associated with metro system usage according to severity and duration. (3) The marginal effects of the COVID-19 variables and emergency responses are larger on weekdays than on weekends. (4) The number of imported confirmed COVID-19 cases only significantly affects metro ridership in the weekend and new-normal-phase models for Beijing. In addition, the daily gross domestic product and weather variables are significantly associated with metro ridership. These findings can aid in understanding the usage of metro systems in the outbreak and new-normal phases and provide transit operators with guidance to adjust services.

A Spatial Adaptation Strategy for Safe Campus Open Spaces during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Korea University

Open spaces on campus offer various opportunities for students. However, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected students’ comfort when occupying open spaces on campus. The purpose of this study is to investigate possible spatial adaptation strategies for safe campus open spaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this research, a case study was conducted using a mixed methodology with behavioral mapping that investigated students’ perceptions at Korea University, Seoul, Korea. A qualitative approach was first conducted with behavioral mapping; the results show that despite some behavioral and spatial changes, people still occupy open spaces on campus for various meaningful activities. A quantitative approach with structural equation modeling (SEM) was also conducted to understand the required spatial modifications to improve the safety of open spaces on campus. The positive correlation between (i) social distancing measures, (ii) health protocols, and (iii) accessibility and occupational comfort with (iv) individuals’ fear of COVID-19 as a positive moderation are the four hypotheses proposed in this study. The results suggest that social distancing measures have no correlation with occupational comfort, while accessibility has the largest positive correlation. Suggestions are presented for providing accessible and equally distributed open spaces on campus to avoid overcrowding. Spatial health protocols are also found to positively correlate with occupational comfort, and the perception of the severity of COVID-19 strengthens this correlation. Tangible physical measures to prevent the spread of the virus are necessary to improve students’ sense of comfort and safety in open spaces on campus.