A comparison of case-finding strategies in the UK for the management of hip fractures

Update on fracture risk assessment in osteoporosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The assessment of fracture risk is playing an ever-increasing role in osteoporosis clinical management and informing international guidelines for osteoporosis. FRAX, a fracture risk calculator that provides individualized 10-year probabilities of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, has been widely used since 2008. In this review, we recap the development and limitations of intervention thresholds and the role of absolute fracture risk.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is an increasing awareness of disparities and inequities in the setting of intervention thresholds in osteoporosis. The limitations of the simple use of prior fracture or the DXA-derived BMD T-score threshold are increasingly being discussed; one solution is to use fracture risk or probabilities in the setting of such thresholds. This approach also permits more objective assessment of high and very high fracture risk to enable physicians to make choices not just about the need to treat but what agents to use in individual patients.

SUMMARY

Like all clinical tools, FRAX has limitations that need to be considered, but the use of fracture risk in deciding who to treat, when to treat and what agent to use is a mechanism to target treatment equitably to those at an increased risk of fracture.

FRAX-derived intervention and assessment thresholds for osteoporosis in ten Middle Eastern countries

This study established FRAX-based age-specific assessment and intervention thresholds for ten Middle Eastern countries where FRAX is currently available, but the lack of specific thresholds has limited its usefulness. The intervention thresholds ranged from 0.6 (Saudi Arabia) to 36.0% (Syria) at the ages of 40 and 90 years, respectively.

INTRODUCTION

Developing fracture risk assessment tools allows physicians to select patients for therapy based on their absolute fracture risk instead of relying solely on bone mineral density (BMD). The most widely used tool is FRAX, currently available in ten Middle Eastern countries. This study aimed to set FRAX-derived assessment and intervention thresholds for individuals aged 40 or above in ten Middle Eastern countries.

METHODS

The age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) for a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m2, without BMD and clinical risk factors except for prior fracture, were calculated as intervention Threshold (IT). The upper and lower assessment thresholds were set at 1.2 times the IT and an age-specific 10-year probability of a MOF in a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m2, without BMD, prior fracture, and other clinical risk factors, respectively. IT is utilized to determine treatment or reassurance when BMD facilities are unavailable. However, with BMD facilities, assessment thresholds can offer treatment, reassurance, or bone densitometry based on MOF probability.

RESULTS

The age-specific IT varied from 0.9 to 11.0% in Abu Dhabi, 2.9 to 10% in Egypt, 2.7 to 14.0% in Iran, 1.0 to 28.0% in Jordan, 2.7 to 27.0% in Kuwait, 0.9 to 35.0% in Lebanon, 1.0 to 16.0% in Palestine, 4.1 to 14% in Qatar, 0.6 to 3.7% in Saudi Arabia, and 0.9 to 36.0% in Syria at the age of 40 and 90 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

FRAX-based IT in Middle Eastern countries provides an opportunity to identify individuals with high fracture risk.

An overview of the use of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in osteoporosis

FRAX®, a simple-to-use fracture risk calculator, was first released in 2008 and since then has been used increasingly worldwide. By calculating the 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture, it assists clinicians when deciding whether further investigation, for example a bone mineral density measurement (BMD), and/or treatment is needed to prevent future fractures. In this review, we explore the literature around osteoporosis and how FRAX has changed its management. We present the characteristics of this tool and describe the use of thresholds (diagnostic and therapeutic). We also present arguments as to why screening with FRAX should be considered. FRAX has several limitations which are described in this review. This review coincides with the release of a version, FRAXplus, which addresses some of these limitations.

An assessment of intervention thresholds for high fracture risk in Chile

Assessment and treatment pathways using FRAX-based intervention thresholds in Chile can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk.

PURPOSE

The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Chile based on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probabilities derived from FRAX®.

METHODS

Intervention and assessment thresholds were derived using methods adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Chile. Age-dependent and hybrid assessment and intervention thresholds were applied to 1998 women and 1122 men age 50 years or more drawn from participants in the National Health Survey 2016-2017.

RESULTS

Approximately 12% of men and women had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. Using age-dependent thresholds, an additional 2.6% of women (0.3% of men) were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended in 5% of men and 38% of women. With hybrid thresholds, an additional 13% of women (3.6% of men) were eligible for treatment and BMD recommended in 11% of men and 42% of women.

CONCLUSION

The application of hybrid intervention thresholds ameliorates the disparity in fracture probabilities seen with age-dependent thresholds. Probability-based assessment of fracture risk, including the use of the hybrid intervention thresholds for Chile, is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.

Is it time to consider population screening for fracture risk in postmenopausal women? A position paper from the International Osteoporosis Foundation Epidemiology/Quality of Life Working Group

The IOF Epidemiology and Quality of Life Working Group has reviewed the potential role of population screening for high hip fracture risk against well-established criteria. The report concludes that such an approach should strongly be considered in many health care systems to reduce the burden of hip fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The burden of long-term osteoporosis management falls on primary care in most healthcare systems. However, a wide and stable treatment gap exists in many such settings; most of which appears to be secondary to a lack of awareness of fracture risk. Screening is a public health measure for the purpose of identifying individuals who are likely to benefit from further investigations and/or treatment to reduce the risk of a disease or its complications. The purpose of this report was to review the evidence for a potential screening programme to identify postmenopausal women at increased risk of hip fracture.

METHODS

The approach took well-established criteria for the development of a screening program, adapted by the UK National Screening Committee, and sought the opinion of 20 members of the International Osteoporosis Foundation's Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life as to whether each criterion was met (yes, partial or no). For each criterion, the evidence base was then reviewed and summarized.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The report concludes that evidence supports the proposal that screening for high fracture risk in primary care should strongly be considered for incorporation into many health care systems to reduce the burden of fractures, particularly hip fractures. The key remaining hurdles to overcome are engagement with primary care healthcare professionals, and the implementation of systems that facilitate and maintain the screening program.

Age-dependent assessment thresholds to optimize patient care in a resource-limited setting: an analysis based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model

Age-dependent upper and lower assessment thresholds help categorizing women aged 40 years or more according to their fracture risk, independent of BMD information.

INTRODUCTION

Age-dependent assessment thresholds of the FRAX algorithm help stratifying men and women aged 40 years or more according to their fracture risk. This allows clinicians to decide on those who require interventions without BMD assessment and those who require BMD input for further assessment.

METHODS

Intervention thresholds were defined by 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) considering a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m² having a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The lower assessment thresholds (LAT) were set at 0.8 times the 10-year probabilities of a MOF and HF in a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m², without previous fracture or other clinical risk factors. The upper assessment thresholds (UAT) were set at 1.2 times the intervention thresholds of MOF and HF. Fracture probabilities were estimated for the age range of 40-80 years, without BMD input. These values were applied to a group of women who underwent DXA for clinical reasons in a single center.

RESULTS

The LATs of MOF and HF varied from 0.7 to 8.8% and 0.1 to 3.7%, from 40 to 80 years, respectively. The corresponding values for UATs were 2.5 to 21.6% and 0.3 to 8.4%. ITs of MOF and HF varied from 2.1 to 18% and 0.2 to 7%, respectively. When applied to a group of 315 postmenopausal women who underwent DXA for clinical indications, 22.9% of women were above the UATs (high-risk category) while 8.6% were below the LATs (low-risk category). The proportion of women in the intermediate category who require BMD for further assessment was 68.6% (95% CI 59.7 to 77.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

In nearly one-third of women aged 40 years or more, the decision to treat or not to treat can be achieved without BMD estimation. The remaining two-thirds will require a BMD assessment for further evaluation.

UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has revised the UK guideline for the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. Accredited by NICE, this guideline is relevant for all healthcare professionals involved in osteoporosis management.

INTRODUCTION

The UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) first produced a guideline on the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in 2008, with updates in 2013 and 2017. This paper presents a major update of the guideline, the scope of which is to review the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older.

METHODS

Where available, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials were used to provide the evidence base. Conclusions and recommendations were systematically graded according to the strength of the available evidence.

RESULTS

Review of the evidence and recommendations are provided for the diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture-risk assessment and intervention thresholds, management of vertebral fractures, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments, including duration and monitoring of anti-resorptive therapy, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, and models of care for fracture prevention. Recommendations are made for training; service leads and commissioners of healthcare; and for review criteria for audit and quality improvement.

CONCLUSION

The guideline, which has received accreditation from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), provides a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of osteoporosis for all healthcare professionals involved in its management. This position paper has been endorsed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and by the European Society for the Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases.

FRAX-based intervention thresholds for Pakistan

We compared, for women in Pakistan, the utility of intervention thresholds either at a T-score ≤  - 2.5 or based on a FRAX probability equivalent to women of average body mass index (BMI) with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age.

PURPOSE

The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Pakistan, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice.

METHODS

The age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without bone mineral density (BMD). The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing.

RESULTS

When a BMD T-score ≤  - 2.5 was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years were approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with no risk factors and average BMD. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture, rose with age from 2.1% at the age of 40 years to 17%, at the age of 90 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages.

CONCLUSION

Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a 'fracture threshold' target women at high fracture risk.

The application of FRAX in Saudi Arabia

Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Saudi Arabi can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk.

PURPOSE

Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have historically been based on the measurement of bone mineral density. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Saudi Arabia based on fracture probabilities derived from FRAX®.

METHODS

The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Saudi Arabia. The methodology was applied to women age 40 years or more drawn from a tertiary referral population for skeletal assessment. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from the referral and FRAX derivation cohorts.

RESULTS

Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.0% at the age of 50 years increasing to 7.6% at the age of 70 years. A total of 163 of 1365 women (11.9%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 5 women were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended for 593 women (43.4%) so that FRAX could be recalculated with the inclusion of femoral neck BMD. Of these, 220 individuals would be eligible for treatment after a BMD test and 373 women categorised at low risk after a BMD test.

CONCLUSION

Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Saudi Arabia to help guide decisions about treatment.

Impact of population-based or targeted BMD interventions on fracture incidence

In a simulated population of older women, we demonstrate that an upward shift in the population distribution of BMD by approximately 0.3SD may decrease the risk of incident fractures to the same extent as an intervention targeted to those with T-score less than -2.5.

INTRODUCTION

To investigate the impact of population level or targeted alterations to BMD on the incidence of fractures.

METHODS

We used a simulated cohort of 49,242 women with age and body mass index distribution from the UK, and prevalence of other clinical risk factors based on European FRAX® cohorts. Using FRAX probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, distal forearm, proximal humerus) and hip fracture, calculated with femoral neck BMD, we determined the expected number of fractures over 10 years, stratified by 10-year age band from 50 years. We then investigated the effect of (i) uplifting all individuals with T-score below -2.5 to be exactly -2.5 (high-risk strategy) and (ii) shifting the entire BMD distribution upwards (population strategy).

RESULTS

Overall, the high-risk strategy prevented 573 MOF including 465 hip fractures. Moving the BMD T-score distribution upward by 0.27SD gave an equivalent reduction in numbers of MOF; for hip fractures prevented, this was 0.35SD. A global upward 0.25SD BMD shift prevented 524 MOF including 354 hip fractures, with corresponding figures for an increase of 0.5SD being 973 MOF prevented and 640 hip fractures prevented. The ratio of hip fracture to MOF prevented differed by the two approaches, such that for the high-risk strategy, the ratio was 0.81, and for the population strategy was 0.68 (0.25SD BMD uplift) and 0.66 (0.5SD BMD uplift). The numbers of fractures prevented by the high-risk strategy increased with age. In contrast, the age-related increase in numbers of fractures prevented with the population strategy rose with age, but peaked in the 70-79-year age band and declined thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Both strategies reduced the numbers of expected incident fractures, with contrasting relative impacts by age and fracture site. Whilst the current analysis used UK/European anthropometric/risk factor distributions, further analyses calibrated to the distributions in other settings globally may be readily undertaken. Overall, these findings support the investigation of both population level interventions and those targeted at high fracture risk groups.

FRAX-Based Intervention Thresholds for Osteoporosis Treatment in Ukraine

OBJECTIVES

Osteoporosis, in addition to its consequent fracture burden, is a common and costly condition. FRAX^® is a well-established, validated, web-based tool which calculates the 10-year probability of fragility fractures. A FRAX model for Ukraine has been available since 2016 but its output has not yet been translated into intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis in Ukraine; we aimed to address this unmet need in this analysis.

METHODS

In a referral population sample of 3790 Ukrainian women, 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture separately were calculated using the Ukrainian FRAX model, with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). We used a similar approach to that first proposed by the UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group, whereby treatment is indicated if the probability equals or exceeds that of a woman of the same age with a prior fracture.

RESULTS

The MOF intervention threshold in females (the age-specific 10-year fracture probability) increased with age from 5.5% at the age of 40 years to 11% at the age of 75 years where it plateaued and then decreased slightly at age 90 (10%). Lower and upper thresholds were also defined to determine the need for BMD, if not already measured; the approach targets BMD measurements to those at or near the intervention threshold. The proportion of the referral populations eligible for treatment, based on prior fracture or similar or greater probability, ranged from 44% to 69% depending on age. The prevalence of the previous fracture rose with age, as did the proportion eligible for treatment. In contrast, the requirement for BMD testing decreased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study describes the development and application of FRAX-based assessment guidelines in Ukraine. The thresholds can be used in the presence or absence of access to BMD and optimize the use of BMD where access is restricted.

Global impact of COVID-19 on non-communicable disease management: descriptive analysis of access to FRAX fracture risk online tool for prevention of osteoporotic fractures

The COVID-19 pandemic, and its management, is markedly impacting the management of osteoporosis as judged by access to online FRAX fracture risk assessments. Globally, access was 58% lower in April than in February 2020. Strategies to improve osteoporosis care, with greater use of fracture risk assessments, offer a partial solution.

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant detrimental impact on the management of chronic diseases including osteoporosis. We have quantified the global impact by examining changes in the usage of online FRAX fracture risk assessments before and after the declaration of the pandemic (11 March 2020).

METHODS

The study comprised a retrospective analysis using GoogleAnalytics data on daily sessions on the FRAX® website ( www.sheffield.ac.uk/FRAX ) from November 2019 to April 2020 (main analysis period February-April 2020), and the geographical source of that activity.

RESULTS

Over February-April 2020, the FRAX website recorded 460,495 sessions from 184 countries, with 210,656 sessions in February alone. In March and April, the number of sessions fell by 23.1% and 58.3% respectively, a pattern not observed over the same period in 2019. There were smaller reductions in Asia than elsewhere, partly related to earlier and less-marked nadirs in some countries (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Vietnam). In Europe, the majority of countries (24/31, 77.4%) reduced usage by at least 50% in April. Seven countries showed smaller reductions (range - 2.85 to - 44.1%) including Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, Norway, Sweden and Finland. There was no significant relationship between the reduction in FRAX usage and measures of disease burden such as COVID-attributed deaths per million of the population.

CONCLUSION

This study documents a marked global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of osteoporosis as reflected by FRAX online fracture risk assessments. The analysis suggests that impact may relate to the societal and healthcare measures taken to ameliorate the pandemic.

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture.

INTRODUCTION

The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX.

METHODS

The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

RESULTS

Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures.

CONCLUSION

The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study

BACKGROUND

Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed "gSOS", and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N = 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r2 = 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention.

A decade of FRAX: how has it changed the management of osteoporosis?

The fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX^®, was released in 2008 and provides country-specific algorithms for estimating individualized 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and proximal humerus). Since its release, 71 models have been made available for 66 countries covering more than 80% of the world population. The website receives approximately 3 million visits annually. Following independent validation, FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide. The application of FRAX in assessment guidelines has been heterogeneous with the adoption of several different approaches in setting intervention thresholds. Whereas most guidelines adopt a case-finding strategy, the case for FRAX-based community screening in the elderly is increasing. The relationship between FRAX and efficacy of intervention has been explored and is expected to influence treatment guidelines in the future.

Use of age-dependent FRAX-based intervention thresholds for Singapore

Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Singapore using FRAX paths can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low risk.

PURPOSE

Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have been based historically on the measurement of bone mineral density. The development of FRAX® has permitted a more accurate assessment of fracture risk. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women selected for treatment in Singapore based on FRAX.

METHODS

The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Singapore. The methodology was applied to women age 50 years or more drawn from the population-based Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) cohort. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from Chinese cohorts from Hong Kong.

RESULTS

Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.9% at the age of 50 years increasing to 32% at the age of 90 years. A total of 1927 of 29,323 women (7%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 3019 women (10.3%) would be eligible for treatment on the basis of age-dependent thresholds. The mean BMD T-score of women so selected was -2.94.

CONCLUSION

Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Singapore to help guide decisions about treatment.

Assessing the risk of osteoporotic fractures: the Ecuadorian FRAX model

The FRAX tool incorporates data on the incidence of fractures and mortality in each country. The epidemiology of fractures changes over time, this makes it necessary to update the specific FRAX model of each population. It is shown that there are differences between old and new FRAX models in older individuals.

PURPOSE

A new FRAX® model for Ecuador was released online in April 2019. This paper describes the data used to build the revised model, its characteristics, and how intervention and assessment thresholds were constructed.

METHODS

The national rates of hip fracture incidence standardized by age and sex from the age of 40 years for 2016 were used to synthesize a FRAX model for Ecuador. For other major fractures, Ecuadorian incidence rates were calculated using ratios obtained in Malmö, Sweden, for other major osteoporotic fractures. The new FRAX model was compared with the previous model released in 2012. Assessment and intervention thresholds were based on age-specific probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture equivalent to women with a previous fracture.

RESULTS

Fracture incidence rates increase with age. The probability of hip or major fractures at 10 years increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female sex, a higher age, and a lower BMD T-score. Compared to the previous model, the new FRAX model gave similar 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women age less than70 years but substantially higher above this age. Notwithstanding, there were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the two models (> 0.99) so that the revision had little impact on the rank order of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The FRAX tool provides a country-specific fracture prediction model for Ecuador. This update of the model is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been validated externally in several independent cohorts. The FRAX model is an evolving tool that is being continuously refined, as the databases of each country are updated with more epidemiological information.

The ability of calcaneal and multisite quantitative ultrasound variables in the identification of osteoporosis in women and men

Objectives

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of calcaneal and multisite quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters in the identification of osteoporosis in women and men.

Patients and methods

A total of 131 women (mean age 53.7±11.9 years; range, 21 to 79 years) and 109 men (mean age 57.8±13.7 years; range, 24 to 85 years) whose bone mineral density (BMD) at the spine and proximal femur was measured between January 2010 and January 2012, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were included. Acoustic bone properties were also examined using both a calcaneal and a multisite QUS. The receiver operating characteristic analysis with the calculation of areas under the curve (AUCs) to evaluate the ability of both QUS devices for the identification of osteoporosis. We also calculated a lower and an upper threshold at a specificity of 90% and at a sensitivity of 90%, respectively, for the identification of osteoporosis along with a threshold/cut-off value with the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity.

Results

All calcaneal QUS parameters showed significant AUCs within the range of 0.712 (for Broadband Ultrasound Attenuation [BUA]) and 0.764 (for Speed of Sound [SOS]) in women and ranging from 0.661 (for BUA) to 0.735 (for SOS) in men, while only radial SOS of the multisite QUS demonstrated a significant AUC value of 0.661 for identifying osteoporosis in women. A Quantitative Ultrasound Index T-score of -1.53 for women and -1.68 for men showed sensitivity and specificities around 70%.

Conclusion

Based on the results of this study, all calcaneal QUS parameters in both women and men and possibly radial SOS measurements of the multisite QUS in women may be helpful for the identification of osteoporosis.

Review of the guideline of the American College of Physicians on the treatment of osteoporosis

This review, endorsed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases, summarizes several failings of the recent guidelines of the American College of Physicians (ACP) on the treatment of low bone density or osteoporosis to prevent fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The ACP recently issued guidelines for the treatment of low bone density or osteoporosis to prevent fractures.

METHODS

Literature review and critical review of the ACP guidelines.

RESULTS

The guideline is lacking in scope due to the endorsement of treatment based on T-scores rather than fracture risk assessment and in failure to adequately consider anabolic therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACP guideline appears outdated.

FRAX-based intervention and assessment thresholds in seven Latin American countries

Age-specific intervention and assessment thresholds were developed for seven Latin American countries. The intervention threshold ranged from 1.2% (Ecuador) to 27.5% (Argentina) at the age of 50 and 90 years, respectively. In the Latin American countries, FRAX offers a substantial advance for the detection of subjects at high fracture risk.

INTRODUCTION

Intervention thresholds are proposed using the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) tool. We recommended their use to calculate the ten-year probability of fragility fracture (FF) in both, men and women with or without the inclusion of bone mineral density (BMD). The purpose of this study is to compute FRAX-based intervention and BMD assessment thresholds for seven Latin American countries in men and women ≥ 40 years.

METHODS

The intervention threshold (IT) was set at a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) equivalent to a woman with a prior FF and a body mass index (BMI) equal to 25.0 kg/m² without BMD or other clinical risk factors. The lower assessment threshold was set at a 10-year probability of a MOF in women with BMI equal to 25.0 kg/m², no previous fracture and no clinical risk factors. The upper assessment threshold was set at 1.2 times the IT.

RESULTS

For the seven LA countries, the age-specific IT varied from 1.5 to 27.5% in Argentina, 3.8 to 25.2% in Brazil, 1.6 up to 20.0% in Chile, 0.6 to 10.2% in Colombia, 0.9 up to 13.6% in Ecuador, 2.6 to 20.0% in Mexico, and 0.7 up to 22.0% in Venezuela at the age of 40 and 90 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the LA countries, FRAX-based IT offers a substantial advance for the detection of men and women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. The heterogeneity of IT between the LA countries indicates that country-specific FRAX models are appropriate rather than a global LA model.

UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

INTRODUCTION

In 2008, the UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) produced a guideline on the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis, with an update in 2013. This paper presents a major update of the guideline, the scope of which is to review the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women and men age 50 years or over.

METHODS

Where available, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials were used to provide the evidence base. Conclusions and recommendations were systematically graded according to the strength of the available evidence.

RESULTS

Review of the evidence and recommendations are provided for the diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture-risk assessment, lifestyle measures and pharmacological interventions, duration and monitoring of bisphosphonate therapy, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, osteoporosis in men, postfracture care and intervention thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The guideline, which has received accreditation from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), provides a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of osteoporosis for all healthcare professionals who are involved in its management.

FRAX- vs. T-score-based intervention thresholds for osteoporosis

Many current guidelines for the assessment of osteoporosis, including those in Kuwait, initiate fracture risk assessment in men and women using BMD T-score thresholds. We compared the Kuwaiti guidelines with FRAX-based age-dependent intervention thresholds equivalent to that in women with a prior fragility fracture. FRAX-based intervention thresholds identified women at higher fracture probability than fixed T-score thresholds, particularly in the elderly.

PURPOSE

A FRAX® model been recently calibrated for Kuwait, but guidance is needed on how to utilise fracture probabilities in the assessment and treatment of patients.

METHODS

We compared age-specific fracture probabilities, equivalent to women with no clinical risk factors and a prior fragility fracture (without BMD), with the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with femoral neck T-scores of -2.5 and -1.5 SD, in line with current guidelines in Kuwait. Upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing were additionally explored using FRAX.

RESULTS

When a BMD T-score of -2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture in women aged 50 years were approximately twofold higher than those in women of the same age but with an average BMD. The increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 83 years or more, a T-score of -2.5 SD was associated with a lower probability of fracture than that of the age-matched general population with no clinical risk factors. The same phenomenon was observed from the age of 66 years at a T-score of -1.5 SD. A FRAX-based intervention threshold, defined as the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture in a woman of average BMI with a previous fracture, rose with age from 4.3% at the age of 50 years to 23%, at the age of 90 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages. Qualitatively comparable findings were observed in the case of hip fracture probability and in men.

CONCLUSION

Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not optimally target women at higher fracture risk than those on age-matched individuals without clinical risk factors, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a 'fracture threshold' consistently target women at higher fracture risk, irrespective of age.

Overview of Fracture Prediction Tools

The characterization of risk factors for fracture that contribute significantly to fracture risk, over and above that provided by the bone mineral density, has stimulated the development of risk assessment tools. The more adequately evaluated tools, all available online, include the FRAX® tool, the Garvan fracture risk calculator and, in the United Kingdom only, QFracture®. Differences in the input variables, output, and model construct give rise to marked differences in the computed risks from each calculator. Reasons for the differences include the derivation of fracture probability (FRAX) rather than incidence (Garvan and QFracture), limited calibration (Garvan), and inappropriate source information (QFracture). These differences need to be taken into account in the evaluation of assessment guidelines.

FRAX Update

The fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX, was released in 2008 and provides country-specific algorithms for estimating individualized 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and proximal humerus). Since its release, models are now available for 63 countries, covering 79% of the world population. The website receives approximately 3 million visits annually. Following independent validation, FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide. However, the application of FRAX in guidelines has been heterogeneous with the adoption of several different approaches to setting intervention thresholds. The relationship between FRAX and efficacy of intervention has been explored and is expected to influence treatment guidelines in the future. A more unified approach to setting intervention thresholds with FRAX is a research priority.

A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation

This systematic review identified assessment guidelines for osteoporosis that incorporate FRAX. The rationale for intervention thresholds is given in a minority of papers. Intervention thresholds (fixed or age-dependent) need to be country-specific.

INTRODUCTION

In most assessment guidelines, treatment for osteoporosis is recommended in individuals with prior fragility fractures, especially fractures at spine and hip. However, for those without prior fractures, the intervention thresholds can be derived using different methods. The aim of this report was to undertake a systematic review of the available information on the use of FRAX® in assessment guidelines, in particular the setting of thresholds and their validation.

METHODS

We identified 120 guidelines or academic papers that incorporated FRAX of which 38 provided no clear statement on how the fracture probabilities derived are to be used in decision-making in clinical practice. The remainder recommended a fixed intervention threshold (n = 58), most commonly as a component of more complex guidance (e.g. bone mineral density (BMD) thresholds) or an age-dependent threshold (n = 22). Two guidelines have adopted both age-dependent and fixed thresholds.

RESULTS

Fixed probability thresholds have ranged from 4 to 20 % for a major fracture and 1.3-5 % for hip fracture. More than one half (39) of the 58 publications identified utilised a threshold probability of 20 % for a major osteoporotic fracture, many of which also mention a hip fracture probability of 3 % as an alternative intervention threshold. In nearly all instances, no rationale is provided other than that this was the threshold used by the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. Where undertaken, fixed probability thresholds have been determined from tests of discrimination (Hong Kong), health economic assessment (USA, Switzerland), to match the prevalence of osteoporosis (China) or to align with pre-existing guidelines or reimbursement criteria (Japan, Poland). Age-dependent intervention thresholds, first developed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), are based on the rationale that if a woman with a prior fragility fracture is eligible for treatment, then, at any given age, a man or woman with the same fracture probability but in the absence of a previous fracture (i.e. at the 'fracture threshold') should also be eligible. Under current NOGG guidelines, based on age-dependent probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold using a hybrid model reduces this disparity.

CONCLUSION

The use of FRAX (fixed or age-dependent thresholds) as the gateway to assessment identifies individuals at high risk more effectively than the use of BMD. However, the setting of intervention thresholds needs to be country-specific.

SIGN Guidelines for Scotland: BMD Versus FRAX Versus QFracture

Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) recently issued guidance on the management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures. The aim of this paper was to critically review the guidance. The SIGN guidance utilises risk factors for fracture as an initial step for assessment, but recommends treatment only in individuals with a T-score of -2.5. There are many problems with the sole use of BMD as the sole gateway to treatment. Moreover, the assessment tools to determine risk (FRAX or QFracture) are not designed to detect osteoporosis but rather fracture risk. Whereas SIGN assumes that FRAX overestimates fracture probability, there are compelling reasons to believe that the disparity is related to the inadequate calibration of QFracture. The disparities make the use of a single threshold for BMD testing problematic. The SIGN guidance for men at high risk of fracture provides a set of confused and inconsistent recommendations that are in direct conflict with regulatory authorizations and is likely to increase further the large treatment gap in men. For women, the number of women eligible for treatment (i.e. with osteoporosis) is 81,700 with the use of FRAX but only 12,300 with QFracture representing 8.2 and 1.2 % of the total population at risk, respectively. We conclude that serious problems with the SIGN guidance preclude its implementation.

FRAX and fracture prediction without bone mineral density

The major application of FRAX in osteoporosis is to direct pharmacological interventions to those at high risk of fracture. Whereas the efficacy of osteoporosis treatment, with the possible exception of alendronate, is largely independent of baseline bone mineral density (BMD), it remains a widely held perception that osteoporosis therapies are only effective in the presence of low BMD. Thus, the use of FRAX in the absence of BMD to identify individuals requiring therapy remains the subject of some debate and is the focus of this review. The clinical risk factors used in FRAX have high evidence-based validity to identify a risk responsive to intervention. The selection of high-risk individuals with FRAX, without knowledge of BMD, preferentially selects for low BMD and thus identifies a risk that is responsive to pharmacological intervention. The prediction of fractures with the use of clinical risk factors alone in FRAX is comparable to the use of BMD alone to predict fractures and is suitable, therefore, in the many countries where facilities for BMD testing are sparse. In countries where access to BMD is greater, FRAX can be used without BMD in the majority of cases and BMD tests reserved for those close to a probability-based intervention threshold. Thus concerns surrounding the use of FRAX in clinical practice without information on BMD are largely misplaced.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040.

METHODS

A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country.

RESULTS

Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

FRAX-based assessment and intervention thresholds--an exploration of thresholds in women aged 50 years and older in the UK

Under current guidelines, based on prior fracture probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold (a fixed threshold from the age of 70 years) reduces this disparity, increases treatment access and decreases the need for bone densitometry.

INTRODUCTION

Several international guidelines set age-specific intervention thresholds at the 10-year probability of fracture equivalent to a woman of average BMI with a prior fracture. At older ages (≥70 years), women with prior fracture selected for treatment are at lower average absolute risk than those selected for treatment in the absence of prior fracture, prompting consideration of alternative thresholds in this age group.

METHODS

Using a simulated population of 50,633 women aged 50-90 years in the UK, with a distribution of risk factors similar to that in the European FRAX derivation cohorts and a UK-matched age distribution, the current NOGG intervention and assessment thresholds were compared to one where the thresholds remained constant from 70 years upwards.

RESULTS

Under current thresholds, 45.1% of women aged ≥70 years would be eligible for therapy, comprising 37.5% with prior fracture, 2.2% with high risk but no prior fracture and 5.4% selected for treatment after bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Mean hip fracture probability was 11.3, 23.3 and 17.6%, respectively, in these groups. Under the alternative thresholds, the overall proportion of women treated increased from 45.1 to 52.9%, with 8.4% at high risk but no prior fracture and 7.0% selected for treatment after BMD measurement. In the latter group, the mean probability of hip fracture was identical to that observed in women with prior fracture (11.3%). The alternative threshold also reduced the need for BMD measurement, particularly at older ages (>80 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The alternative thresholds equilibrate fracture risk, particularly hip fracture risk, in those with or without prior fracture selected for treatment and reduce BMD usage at older ages.

European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk of fractures due to osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION

The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2008. This manuscript updates these in a European setting.

METHODS

Systematic literature reviews.

RESULTS

The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk, general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis, monitoring of treatment, assessment of fracture risk, case finding strategies, investigation of patients and health economics of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.

Advances in bone imaging for osteoporosis

The diagnosis and management of osteoporosis have been improved by the development of new quantitative methods of skeletal assessment and by the availability of an increasing number of therapeutic options, respectively. A number of imaging methods exist and all have advantages and disadvantages. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most widely available and commonly utilized method for clinical diagnosis of osteoporosis and will remain so for the foreseeable future. The WHO 10-year fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX(®)) will improve clinical use of DXA and the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic intervention. Improved reporting of radiographic features that suggest osteoporosis and the presence of vertebral fracture, which are powerful predictors of future fractures, could increase the frequency of appropriate DXA referrals. Quantitative CT remains predominantly a research tool, but has advantages over DXA--allowing measurement of volumetric density, separate measures of cortical and trabecular bone density, and evaluation of bone shape and size. High resolution imaging, using both CT and MRI, has been introduced to measure trabecular and cortical bone microstructure. Although these methods provide detailed insights into the effects of disease and therapies on bone, they are technically challenging and not widely available, so they are unlikely to be used in clinical practice.

The impact of a FRAX-based intervention threshold in Turkey: the FRAX-TURK study

INTRODUCTION

With the development of country-specific FRAX® tools to estimate fracture probability, guidance is required on the fracture probability at which treatment can be recommended.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to determine FRAX-based intervention thresholds in men and women from Turkey and determine their population impact.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Intervention thresholds for treatment and assessment thresholds for measuring BMD were devised using the strategy adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group of the UK but applied to the fracture probabilities in Turkey. The number of men and women potentially eligible for treatment was determined from the distribution of FRAX-based probabilities of a major fracture (Turkish model, version 3.6) in a representative sample of 26,394 men and women aged 50 years or more.

RESULTS

Intervention thresholds, set at the probability equivalents of a woman with a prior fragility fracture rose with age from 7.0 % at the age of 50 years to 31 % at the age of 90 years. Approximately 8.6 % of the female Turkish population aged 50 years or more had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment. A further 13.6 % without a prior fracture would be eligible for treatment. In contrast, the number of men aged 50 years or more eligible for treatment was 3.1 %.

CONCLUSIONS

FRAX-based guidelines can be developed and are expected to avoid unnecessary treatment of individuals at low fracture risk and direct treatments to those at high risk. The adoption of FRAX-based intervention thresholds will demand a reappraisal of the criteria for reimbursement of interventions and health economic assessment.

A framework for the development of guidelines for the management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis

This paper provides a framework for the development of national guidelines for the management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis in men and women aged 18 years and over in whom oral glucocorticoid therapy is considered for 3 months or longer.

INTRODUCTION

The need for updated guidelines for Europe and other parts of the world was recognised by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Calcified Tissue Society, which set up a joint Guideline Working Group at the end of 2010.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The epidemiology of GIO is reviewed. Assessment of risk used a fracture probability-based approach, and intervention thresholds were based on 10-year probabilities using FRAX. The efficacy of intervention was assessed by a systematic review.

CONCLUSIONS

Guidance for glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis is updated in the light of new treatments and methods of assessment. National guidelines derived from this resource need to be tailored within the national healthcare framework of each country.

FRAX(®) with and without bone mineral density

The use of FRAX, particularly in the absence of BMD, has been the subject of some debate and is the focus of this review. The clinical risk factors used in FRAX have high validity as judged from an evidence-based assessment and identify a risk that is responsive to pharmaceutical intervention. Moreover, treatment effects, with the possible exception of alendronate, are not dependent on baseline BMD and strongly suggest that FRAX identifies high-risk patients who respond to pharmaceutical interventions. In addition, the selection of high-risk individuals with FRAX, without knowledge of BMD, preferentially selects for low BMD. The prediction of fractures with the use of clinical risk factors alone in FRAX is comparable to the use of BMD alone to predict fractures and is suitable, therefore, in the many countries where DXA facilities are sparse. In countries where access to BMD is greater, FRAX can be used without BMD in the majority of cases and BMD tests reserved for those close to a probability-based intervention threshold. Whereas the efficacy for agents to reduce fracture risk has not been tested prospectively in randomized controlled trials in patients selected on the basis of FRAX probabilities, there is compelling evidence that FRAX with or without the use of BMD provides a well-validated instrument for targeting patients most likely to benefit from an intervention.