Assessing risk factors of non-fatal outcomes amid a competing risk of mortality: the example of hip fracture

Health Perceptions, Multimorbidity, and New Fractures and Mortality Among Patients With a Fracture

Importance

A high proportion of patients who sustain a fracture have multimorbidity. However, the association of multimorbidity with postfracture adverse outcomes, such as subsequent fractures and premature mortality, has not been widely explored.

Objective

To examine the association of multimorbidity and self-rated health with subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study included participants from New South Wales, Australia, in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267 357). Participants were recruited from July 2005 to December 2009 and followed up from the date of the incident fracture until subsequent fracture, death, or the end of the study (April 2017), whichever occurred first, with questionnaire data linked to hospital admission and medication records. Data analysis was reported between March and September 2023.

Exposures

Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and self-rated health (SRH).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were subsequent fracture or mortality after an incident fracture. Associations between SRH measures and subsequent fracture and mortality were also assessed. All analyses were stratified by sex given the different fracture and mortality risk profiles of females and males.

Results

Of 25 280 adults who sustained incident fractures, 16 191 (64%) were female (mean [SD] age, 74 [12] years) and 9089 (36%) were male (mean [SD] age, 74 [13] years). During a median follow-up time of 2.8 years (IQR, 1.1-5.2 years), 2540 females (16%) and 1135 males (12%) sustained a subsequent fracture and 2281 females (14%) and 2140 males (24%) died without a subsequent fracture. Compared with a CCI score of less than 2, those with a CCI score of 2 to 3 had an increased risk of subsequent fracture (females: hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; males: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.43]) and mortality (females: HR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.99-2.40]; males: HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.71-2.09]). Those with a CCI score of 4 or greater had greater risks of subsequent fracture (females: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.58]; males: HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]) and mortality (females: HR, 4.48 [95% CI, 3.97-5.06]; males: HR, 3.82 [95% CI 3.41-4.29]). Self-rated health was also significantly associated with subsequent fracture and mortality. Those reporting the poorest health and quality of life had the highest subsequent fracture risks, and their mortality risks were even higher.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, both CCI and SRH measures were associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture, underscoring the importance of managing the care of patients with comorbidities who sustain a fracture.

Epilepsy and the risk of adverse cardiovascular events: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Epilepsy is associated with higher morbidity and mortality compared to people without epilepsy. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal cohort study to evaluate cardiovascular comorbidity and incident vascular events in people with epilepsy (PWE).

METHODS

Data were extracted from the French Hospital National Database. PWE (n = 682,349) who were hospitalized between January 2014 and December 2022 were matched on age, sex, and year of hospitalization with 682,349 patients without epilepsy. Follow-up was conducted from the date of first hospitalization with epilepsy until the date of each outcome or date of last news in the absence of the outcome. Primary outcome was the incidence of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, ischaemic stroke (IS), new onset atrial fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (VT/VF), and cardiac arrest.

RESULTS

A diagnosis of epilepsy was associated with higher numbers of cardiovascular risk factors and adverse cardiovascular events compared to controls. People with epilepsy had a higher incidence of all-cause death (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 2.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.67-2.72), cardiovascular death (IRR = 2.16, 95% CI = 2.11-2.20), heart failure (IRR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.25-1.28), IS (IRR = 2.08, 95% CI = 2.04-2.13), VT/VF (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.16), and cardiac arrest (IRR = 2.12, 95% CI = 2.04-2.20). When accounting for all-cause death as a competing risk, subdistribution hazard ratios for ischaemic stroke of 1.59 (95% CI = 1.55-1.63) and for cardiac arrest of 1.73 (95% CI = 1.58-1.89) demonstrated higher risk in PWE.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence and incident rates of cardiovascular outcomes were significantly higher in PWE. Targeting cardiovascular health could help reduce excess morbidity and mortality in PWE.

Comorbidity and risk of infection among patients with hip fracture: a Danish population-based cohort study

Impact of comorbidity on infection risk among hip fracture patients is unclear. We found high incidence of infection. Comorbidity was an important risk factor for infection up to 1 year after surgery. Results indicates a need for additional investment in pre- and postoperative programs that assist patients with high comorbidity.

PURPOSE

Comorbidity level and incidence of infection have increased among older patients with hip fracture. The impact of comorbidity on infection risk is unclear. We conducted a cohort study examining the absolute and relative risks of infection in relation to comorbidity level among hip fracture patients.

METHODS

Utilizing Danish population-based medical registries, we identified 92,600 patients aged ≥ 65 years undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2018. Comorbidity was categorized by Charlson comorbidity index scores (CCI): none (CCI = 0), moderate (CCI = 1-2), or severe (CCI ≥ 3). Primary outcome was any hospital-treated infection. Secondary outcomes were hospital-treated pneumonia, urinary tract infection, sepsis, reoperation due to surgical-site infection (SSI), and a composite of any hospital- or community-treated infection. We calculated cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (aHRs) adjusted for age, sex, and surgery year, including 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Prevalence of moderate and severe comorbidity was 40% and 19%, respectively. Incidence of any hospital-treated infection increased with comorbidity level within 0-30 days (none 13% vs. severe 20%) and 0-365 days (none 22% vs. 37% severe). Patients with moderate and severe comorbidity, compared to no comorbidity, had aHRs of 1.3 (CI: 1.3-1.4) and 1.6 (CI: 1.5-1.7) within 0-30 days, and 1.4 (CI: 1.4-1.5) and 1.9 (CI: 1.9-2.0) within 0-365, respectively. Highest incidence was observed for any hospital- or community-treated infection (severe 72%) within 0-365 days. Highest aHR was observed for sepsis within 0-365 days (severe vs. none: 2.7 (CI: 2.4-2.9)).

CONCLUSION

Comorbidity is an important risk factor for infection up to 1 year after hip fracture surgery.

Impact of Stroke History on the Risk of Recurrent Hip Fracture or Major Osteoporotic Fractures among Patients with Incident Hip Fracture: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Considerable uncertainty prevails regarding risk factors for recurrent fracture among older patients with hip fracture. We aimed to investigate the relationship between prefracture stroke history, baseline mobility, and the risk of recurrent hip fracture. This cohort study was based on the Danish Multidisciplinary Hip Fracture Registry, 2011-2018 (n = 48,230). We estimated cumulative incidence (competing risk of death) of recurrent hip fracture and major osteoporotic fractures within 1 and 2 years comparing patients with/without prefracture stroke history. Analyses were performed overall and stratified on baseline mobility status (good mobility: Cumulated Ambulation Score ≥ 5 versus poor mobility: Cumulated Ambulation Score < 5). Using Cox regression, adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained. The 1-year cumulative incidence was 4.6% (95% CI: 3.9-5.4) among patients with stroke history and 4.3% (95% CI: 4.1-4.5) among patients without stroke history. For patients with good mobility, the cumulative incidence of recurrent hip fracture was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.3-7.5) versus 3.7% (95% CI: 3.4-4.0) for patients with versus without stroke history. Corresponding numbers for patients with poor mobility were 4.4% (95% CI: 3.6-5.5) and 5.0% (95% CI: 4.7-5.3). Stroke history was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.55 (95% CI: 1.15-2.10) for recurrent fracture among patients with good mobility. In contrast, no association was observed among patients with poor mobility (adjusted HR 0.88 [95% CI: 0.70-1.10]). The associations were attenuated after 2 years of follow-up and for major osteoporotic fractures. In conclusion, stroke history was associated with slightly higher risk of recurrent fracture among patients with first-time hip fracture in the overall analysis, although the CI included a null result. The association was modified by baseline mobility: Patients with stroke history and good mobility had a markedly higher risk, whereas patients with stroke and poor mobility did not. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Long term association of hip fractures by questions of physical health in a cohort of men and women

We do not know if fracture predicting factors are constant throughout life, if they can be assessed earlier in life, and for how long. The aim was to study the association between questions about health status and mobility and fragility fractures in a cohort during a 35-year follow-up. A cohort of 16,536 men and women in two age groups, 26-45 and 46-65 years old, who answered five questions of their physical health status in postal surveys in 1969-1970. We obtained data on hip fractures from 1970 to the end of 2016. We found most significant results when restricting the follow-up to age 60-85 years, 35 for the younger age group and 20 years for the older. Men of both age groups considered "at risk" according to their answers had a 2.69 (CI 1.85-3.90)- 3.30 (CI 1.51-7.23) increased risk of having a hip fracture during a follow-up. Women in the younger age group had a 2.69 (CI 1.85-3.90) increased risk, but there was no elevated risk for women in the older age group. This study shows that questions/index of physical health status may be associated with hip fractures that occur many years later in life, and that there is a time span when the predictive value of the questions can be used, before other, age-related, factors dominate. Our interpretation of the results is that we are studying the most vulnerable, who have hip fractures relatively early in life, and that hip fractures are so common among older women that the questions in the survey lose their predictive value.

Hydroxychloroquine and Risk of Long QT Syndrome in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Veterans Cohort Study With Nineteen-Year Follow-up

OBJECTIVE

Recent evidence suggests that hydroxychloroquine use is not associated with higher 1-year risk of long QT syndrome (LQTS) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Less is known about its long-term risk, the examination of which was the objective of this study.

METHODS

We conducted a propensity score-matched active-comparator safety study of hydroxychloroquine in 8,852 veterans (mean age 64 ± 12 years, 14% women, 28% Black) with newly diagnosed RA. A total of 4,426 patients started on hydroxychloroquine and 4,426 started on another nonbiologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) and were balanced on 87 baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was LQTS during 19-year follow-up through December 31, 2019.

RESULTS

Incident LQTS occurred in 4 (0.09%) and 5 (0.11%) patients in the hydroxychloroquine and other DMARD groups, respectively, during the first 2 years. Respective 5-year incidences were 17 (0.38%) and 6 (0.14%), representing 11 additional LQTS events in the hydroxychloroquine group (number needed to harm 403; [95% confidence interval (95% CI)], 217-1,740) and a 181% greater relative risk (95% CI 11%-613%; P = 0.030). Although overall 10-year risk remained significant (hazard ratio 2.17; 95% CI 1.13-4.18), only 5 extra LQTS occurred in hydroxychloroquine group over the next 5 years (years 6-10) and 1 over the next 9 years (years 11-19). There was no association with arrhythmia-related hospitalization or all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Hydroxychloroquine use had no association with LQTS during the first 2 years after initiation of therapy. There was a higher risk thereafter that became significant after 5 years of therapy. However, the 5-year absolute risk was very low, and the absolute risk difference was even lower. Both risks attenuated during longer follow-up. These findings provide evidence for long-term safety of hydroxychloroquine in patients with RA.

Assessment of Lung Cancer Risk Among Smokers for Whom Annual Screening Is Not Recommended

Importance

The US Preventive Services Task Force does not recommend annual lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for adults aged 50 to 80 years who are former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking who quit 15 or more years ago or current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking.

Objective

To determine the risk of lung cancer in older smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This cohort study used the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) data sets obtained from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, which also sponsored the study. The CHS enrolled 5888 community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years and older in the US from June 1989 to June 1993 and collected extensive baseline data on smoking history. The current analysis was restricted to 4279 individuals free of cancer who had baseline data on pack-year smoking history and duration of smoking cessation. The current analysis was conducted from January 7, 2022, to May 25, 2022.

Exposures

Current and prior tobacco use.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident lung cancer during a median (IQR) of 13.3 (7.9-18.8) years of follow-up (range, 0 to 22.6) through December 31, 2011. A Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to estimate incidence of lung cancer in the presence of competing risk of death. Cox cause-specific hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident lung cancer.

Results

There were 4279 CHS participants (mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.6] years; 2450 [57.3%] women; 663 [15.5%] African American, 3585 [83.8%] White, and 31 [0.7%] of other race or ethnicity) included in the current analysis. Among the 861 nonheavy smokers (<20 pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 7.6 (3.3-13.5) pack-years for the 615 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 10.0 (5.3-14.9) pack-years for the 146 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 11.4 (7.3-14.4) pack-years for the 100 current smokers. Among the 1445 heavy smokers (20 or more pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 34.8 (26.3-48.0) pack-years for the 516 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 48.0 (35.0-70.0) pack-years for the 497 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 48.8 (31.6-57.0) pack-years for the 432 current smokers. Incident lung cancer occurred in 10 of 1973 never smokers (0.5%), 5 of 100 current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking (5.0%), and 26 of 516 former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking with 15 or more years of smoking cessation (5.0%). Compared with never smokers, cause-specific HRs for incident lung cancer in the 2 groups for whom LDCT is not recommended were 10.54 (95% CI, 3.60-30.83) for the current nonheavy smokers and 11.19 (95% CI, 5.40-23.21) for the former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation; age, sex, and race-adjusted HRs were 10.06 (95% CI, 3.41-29.70) for the current nonheavy smokers and 10.22 (4.86-21.50) for the former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation compared with never smokers.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that there is a high risk of lung cancer among smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended, suggesting that prediction models are needed to identify high-risk subsets of these smokers for screening.

Association of perioperative thromboprophylaxis on revision rate due to infection and aseptic loosening in primary total hip arthroplasty - new evidence from the Nordic Arthroplasty Registry Association (NARA)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Results regarding the impact of anticoagulants on revision rate are conflicting. We examined the association between the use of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) or non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) as thromboprophylaxis after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the revision rate due to infection, aseptic loosening, and all causes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a cohort study (n = 53,605) based on prospectively collected data from the national hip arthroplasty registries from Denmark and Norway. The outcome was time to revision due to infection, aseptic loosening, and all causes, studied separately. Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate implant survival and cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, fixation type, start, and duration of thromboprophylaxis, and preoperative use of Vitamin K antagonists, NOAC, aspirin, and platelet inhibitors as confounders.

RESULTS

We included 40,451 patients in the LMWH group and 13,154 patients in the NOAC group. Regarding revision due to infection, the 1-year and 5-year KM survival was 99% in both the LMWH group and in the NOAC group. During the entire follow-up period, the adjusted HR for revision due to infection was 0.9 (CI 0.7-1.1), 1.6 (CI 1.3-2.1) for aseptic loosening, and 1.2 (CI 1.1-1.4) for all-cause revision for the NOAC compared with the LMWH group. The absolute differences in revision rates between the groups varied from 0.2% to 1%.

INTERPRETATION

Compared with LMWH, NOACs were associated with a slightly lower revision rate due to infection, but higher revisions rates due to aseptic loosening and all-cause revision. The absolute differences between groups are small and most likely not clinically relevant. In addition, the observed associations might partly be explained by selection bias and unmeasured confounding, and should be a topic for further research.

The association between social network index, atrial fibrillation, and mortality in the Framingham Heart Study

Social isolation might be considered as a marker of poor health and higher mortality. The aim of our analysis was to assess the association of social network index (SNI) with incident AF and death. We selected participants aged ≥ 55 years without prevalent AF from the Framingham Heart Study. We evaluated the association between social isolation measured by the Berkman-Syme Social Network Index (SNI), incident AF, and mortality without diagnosed AF. We assessed the risk factor-adjusted associations between SNI (the sum of 4 components: marriage status, close friends/relatives, religious service attendance, social group participation), incident AF, and mortality without AF by using Fine-Gray competing risk regression models. We secondarily examined the outcome of all-cause mortality. We included 3454 participants (mean age 67 ± 10 years, 58% female). During 11.8 ± 5.2 mean years of follow-up, there were 686 incident AF cases and 965 mortality without AF events. Individuals with fewer connections had lower rates of incident AF (P = 0.04) but higher rates of mortality without AF (P = 0.03). Among SNI components, only social group participation was associated with higher incident AF (subdistribution hazards ratio [sHR] 1.35, 95% CI 1.16-1.57, P = 0.0001). For mortality without AF, social group participation (sHR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.93, P = 0.002) and regular religious service attendance sHR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.87, P < 0.0001) were associated with lower risk of death. Social isolation was associated with a higher rate of mortality without diagnosed AF. In contrast to our hypothesis, we observed that poor social connectedness was associated with a lower rate of incident AF. This finding should be interpreted cautiously since there were very few participants in the lowest social connectedness group. Additionally, the seemingly protective effect of social isolation on AF incidence may be simply an artifact of the strong association between social isolation and increased mortality rate in combination with the large number of deaths as compared to AF events in our study. Further study is warranted.

Kaplan-Meier and Cox Regression Are Preferable for the Analysis of Time to Revision of Joint Arthroplasty: Thirty-One Years of Follow-up for Cemented and Uncemented THAs Inserted From 1987 to 2000 in the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register

Background:

Previous studies have suggested that the probability function of 1 minus the Kaplan-Meier survivorship overestimates revision rates of implants and that patient death should be included in estimates as a competing risk factor. The present study aims to demonstrate that this line of thinking is incorrect and is a misunderstanding of both the Kaplan-Meier method and competing risks.

Methods:

This study demonstrated the differences, misunderstandings, and interpretations of classical, competing-risk, and illness-death models with use of data from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register for 15,734 cemented and 7,867 uncemented total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed from 1987 to 2000, with fixation as the exposure variable.

Results:

The mean age was higher for patients who underwent cemented (72 years) versus uncemented THA (53 years); as such, a greater proportion of patients who underwent cemented THA had died during the time of the study (47% compared with 29%). The risk of revision at 20 years was 18% for cemented and 42% for uncemented THAs. The cumulative incidence function at 20 years was 11% for cemented and 36% for uncemented THAs. The prevalence of revision at 20 years was 6% for cemented and 31% for uncemented THAs.

Conclusions:

Adding death as a competing risk will always attenuate the probability of revision and does not correct for dependency between patient death and THA revision. Adjustment for age and sex almost eliminated differences in risk estimates between the different regression models. In the analysis of time until revision of joint replacements, classical survival analyses are appropriate and should be advocated.

Level of Evidence:

Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Intramedullary nail versus sliding hip screw for stable and unstable trochanteric and subtrochanteric fractures : 17,341 patients from the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register

AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate if there are differences in outcome between sliding hip screws (SHSs) and intramedullary nails (IMNs) with regard to fracture stability.

METHODS

We assessed data from 17,341 patients with trochanteric or subtrochanteric fractures treated with SHS or IMN in the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register from 2013 to 2019. Primary outcome measures were reoperations for stable fractures (AO Foundation/Orthopaedic Trauma Association (AO/OTA) type A1) and unstable fractures (AO/OTA type A2, A3, and subtrochanteric fractures). Secondary outcome measures were reoperations for A2, A3, and subtrochanteric fractures individually, one-year mortality, quality of life (EuroQol five-dimension three-level index score), pain (visual analogue scale (VAS)), and satisfaction (VAS) for stable and unstable fractures. Hazard rate ratios (HRRs) for reoperation were calculated using Cox regression analysis with adjustments for age, sex, and American Society of Anesthesiologists score.

RESULTS

Reoperation rate was lower after surgery with IMN for unstable fractures one year (HRR 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70 to 0.97; p = 0.022) and three years postoperatively (HRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.99; p = 0.036), compared with SHS. For individual fracture types, no clinically significant differences were found. Lower one-year mortality was found for IMN compared with SHS for stable fractures (HRR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.96; p = 0.007), and unstable fractures (HRR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.98; p = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

This national register-based study indicates a lower reoperation rate for IMN than SHS for unstable trochanteric and subtrochanteric fractures, but not for stable fractures or individual fracture types. The choice of implant may not be decisive to the outcome of treatment for stable trochanteric fractures in terms of reoperation rate. One-year mortality rate for unstable and stable fractures was lower in patients treated with IMN. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(2):274-282.

Competing risk of mortality in association studies of non-fatal events

In geriatric research of non-fatal events, participants often die during the study follow-up without having the non-fatal event of interest. Cause-specific (CS) hazard regression and Fine-Gray (FG) subdistribution hazard regression are the two most common estimation approaches addressing such competing risk. We explain how the conventional CS approach and the FG approach differ and why many FG estimates of associations are counter-intuitive. Additionally, we clarify the indirect link between models for hazard and models for cumulative incidence. The methodologies are contrasted on data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based study in adults aged 65 years and older.

Cumulative burden of clinically significant aortic stenosis in community-dwelling older adults

OBJECTIVES

Current estimates of aortic stenosis (AS) frequency have mostly relied on cross-sectional echocardiographic or longitudinal administrative data, making understanding of AS burden incomplete. We performed case adjudications to evaluate the frequency of AS and assess differences by age, sex and race in an older cohort with long-term follow-up.

METHODS

We developed case-capture methods using study echocardiograms, procedure and diagnosis codes, heart failure events and deaths for targeted review of medical records in the Cardiovascular Health Study to identify moderate or severe AS and related procedures or hospitalisations. The primary outcome was clinically significant AS (severe AS or procedure). Assessment of incident AS burden was based on subdistribution survival methods, while associations with age, sex and race relied on cause-specific survival methods.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 5795 participants (age 73±6, 42.2% male, 14.3% Black). Cumulative frequency of clinically significant AS at maximal 25-year follow-up was 3.69% (probable/definite) to 4.67% (possible/probable/definite), while the corresponding 20-year cumulative incidence was 2.88% to 3.71%. Of incident cases, about 85% had a hospitalisation for severe AS, but roughly half did not undergo valve intervention. The adjusted incidence of clinically significant AS was higher in men (HR 1.62 [95% CI 1.21 to 2.17]) and increased with age (HR 1.08 [95% CI 1.04 to 1.11]), but was lower in Blacks (HR 0.43 [95% CI 0.23 to 0.81]).

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based study, we identified a higher burden of clinically significant AS than reported previously, with differences by age, sex and race. These findings have important implications for public health resource planning, although the lower burden in Blacks merits further study.

Higher-Impact Physical Activity Is Associated With Maintenance of Bone Mineral Density But Not Reduced Incident Falls or Fractures in Older Men: The Concord Health and Aging in Men Project

High-impact physical activities with bone strains of high magnitude and frequency may benefit bone health. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal associations between changes in loading intensities and application rates, estimated from self-reported physical activity, with bone mineral density (BMD) changes over 5 years and also with incident falls over 2 years and long-term incident fractures in community-dwelling older men. A total of 1599 men (mean age 76.8 ± 5.4 years) from the Concord Health and Aging in Men Project (CHAMP) were assessed at baseline (2005-2007) and at 2- and 5-year follow-up. At each time point, hip and lumbar spine BMD were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and physical activity energy expenditure over the past week was self-reported via the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) questionnaire. Sum effective load ratings (ELRs) and peak force were estimated from the PASE questionnaire, reflecting the total and highest loading intensity and application rate of physical activities, respectively. Participants were contacted every 4 months over 2 years to self-report falls and over 6.0 ± 2.2 years for fractures. Hip fractures were ascertained by data linkage for 8.9 ± 3.6 years. Compared with sum ELR and PASE scores, peak force demonstrated the greatest standardized effect size for BMD maintenance at the spine (β = 9.77 mg/cm² ), total hip (β = 14.14 mg/cm² ), and femoral neck (β = 13.72 mg/cm² ) after adjustment for covariates, including PASE components (all p < .01). Only PASE scores were significantly associated with reduced falls risk (standardized incident rate ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.00, p = .04). All physical activity measures were significantly associated with reduced incident fractures in univariate analyses, but none remained significant after multivariable adjustments. Older men who engaged in physical activity of high and rapid impact maintained higher BMD, while higher energy expenditure was associated with reduced falls risk. Coupling traditional physical activity data with bone loading estimates may improve understanding of the relationships between physical activity and bone health. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Red Cell Distribution Width Is a Risk Factor for Hip Fracture in Elderly Men Without Anemia

Red cell distribution width (RDW), routinely assessed as a component of a complete blood count (CBC), quantifies the variation in the size of red blood cells. It increases with age, and increased RDW predicts many aging-related diseases and mortality. However, whether it also predicts hip fracture is unknown. We prospectively evaluated the association between RDW and hip fracture using data from the Osteoporotic Fracture in Men (MrOS) study. RDW was measured in 3635 men (aged 71 to 99 years) along with bone mineral density (BMD) in MrOS. RDW ranged from 11.3% to 32.9% (median 14.0%; interquartile range 13.5% to 14.8%) and was categorized into four groups (≤13.0%, 13.1% to 14.0%, 14.1% to 15.0%, ≥15.1%). Study participants with a hemoglobin level <13.0 g/dL were classified as having anemia. During an average 8.1 years, 164 men suffered hip fractures. The risks of hip fractures increased with increase of RDW category. Furthermore, there was a significant interaction between anemia and RDW: An association between RDW and hip fractures was only observed in participants without anemia. In those without anemia, the relative hazard of hip fractures increased with increases in RDW category: Men in the highest RDW category had a 2.8 times higher risk of hip fractures than men in the lowest group (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 7.1). The risks of all-clinical fractures were also increased along with higher RDW values. Additionally, RDW was significantly associated with the risk of having a fall but not with femoral neck or total hip BMD. In conclusion, RDW and anemia defined by hemoglobin are widely available routine laboratory measurements that together could indicate increased risk of hip fracture, reflecting the neuromuscular effects of aging rather than lower hip BMD. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.