Fall Patterns Predict Mortality After Hip Fracture in Older Adults, Independent of Age, Sex, and Comorbidities

Risk prediction models of mortality after hip fracture surgery in older individuals: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to critically assess existing risk prediction models for postoperative mortality in older individuals with hip fractures, with the objective of offering substantive insights for their clinical application.

DESIGN

A comprehensive search was conducted across prominent databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, SinoMed, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang, spanning original articles in both Chinese and English up until 1 December 2023. Two researchers independently extracted pertinent research characteristics, such as predictors, model performance metrics, and modeling methodologies. Additionally, the bias risk and applicability of the incorporated risk prediction models were systematically evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Within the purview of this investigation, a total of 21 studies were identified, constituting 21 original risk prediction models. The discriminatory capacity of the included risk prediction models, as denoted by the minimum and maximum areas under the subject operating characteristic curve, ranged from 0.710 to 0.964. Noteworthy predictors, recurrent across various models, included age, sex, comorbidities, and nutritional status. However, among the models assessed through the PROBAST framework, only one was deemed to exhibit a low risk of bias. Beyond this assessment, the principal limitations observed in risk prediction models pertain to deficiencies in data analysis, encompassing insufficient sample size and suboptimal handling of missing data.

CONCLUSION

Subsequent research endeavors should adopt more stringent experimental designs and employ advanced statistical methodologies in the construction of risk prediction models. Moreover, large-scale external validation studies are warranted to rigorously assess the generalizability and clinical utility of existing models, thereby enhancing their relevance as valuable clinical references.

Indoor falls and number of previous falls are independent risk factors for long-term mortality after a hip fracture

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are almost always the result of a fall. Causes and circumstances of falls may differ between frail and vigorous patients.

AIM

To describe the circumstances of falls causing hip fractures, number of falls during the previous year, and their association with long-term mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study is a retrospective review conducted in a tertiary university hospital serving a population of 425,000 inhabitants in Barcelona. All patients admitted with hip fractures with medical records describing the circumstances and number of previous falls were included. The number of falls in the previous 12 months was recorded, including the one causing the fracture. The circumstances of the index fall were dichotomized according to whether it was from the patient's own height or above; day or night; indoors or outdoors, due to intrinsic or extrinsic causes. Cumulative mortality was recorded for almost 5 years after hip fracture.

RESULTS

Indoor falls were strongly associated with shorter survival. Falling more than once in the previous year was also a risk factor for long-term mortality (hazard ratio 1.461, p < 0.001 and hazard ratio 1.035, p = 0.008 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Indoor falls and falling more than once in the previous year are long-term risk factors for mortality after hip fractures. It is always essential to take a careful patient history on admission to determine the number of falls and their circumstances, and special care should be taken to reduce mortality in patients at high risk.

Risk Factors Associated with Falls and Fractures Following Prescription of Opioids Among Privately Insured Patients with Osteoarthritis

Background: While prior research has shown that patients with osteoarthritis (OA) who are prescribed opioids have higher rates of falls and fractures following drug initiation, there is a limited body of work establishing a comprehensive model of factors that influence the risk of falls or fractures among these patients. Objective: Opioids are associated with negative clinical outcomes, including increased risk of falls and fractures. This study assessed the frequency, treatment characteristics, and risk factors associated with falls or fractures among patients with OA taking opioids. Methods: Optum Healthcare Solutions, Inc data (January 2012-March 2017) were used to identify patients over 18 with at least 2 diagnoses of hip and/or knee OA, and at least 90 days' supply of opioids. Patients with cancer were excluded. Falls or fractures outcomes were assessed in the 36-month follow-up period after the date of the first opioid prescription after first OA diagnosis. Demographic, treatment, and clinical characteristics associated with falls or fractures were assessed using logistic regression. Results: Of 16 663 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 3886 (23%) had at least 1 fall or fracture during follow-up. Of these 3886 patients, 1349 (35%) had at least 1 fall with an average of 3 fall claims, and 3299 (85%) patients had at least 1 fracture with an average of 8 claims during follow-up. Spine (15.8%) and hip (12.5%) fractures were most common. Median time to fall or fracture was 18.6 and 13.9 months, respectively. Significant (P<.05) risk factors associated with at least 1 fall or fracture during the follow-up period included alcohol use (odds ratio [OR], 3.41), history of falling (OR, 2.19), non-tramadol opioid use (OR, 1.31), age (OR, 1.03), benzodiazepine use (OR, 1.21), and at least 1 osteoporosis diagnosis (OR, 2.06). Discussion: This study is among only a few that clearly identifies the substantial impact and frequency of falls and fractures associated with prescribing non-tramadol opioids to patients with OA. Findings suggest that fall or fracture risks need to be considered when managing OA pain with opioids. Conclusion: Falls and fractures impose a major clinical burden on patients prescribed opioids for OA-related pain management. Falls or fracture risks should be an important consideration in the ongoing treatment of patients with OA.