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Plowright RK, Ahmed AN, Coulson T, Crowther TW, Ejotre I, Faust CL, Frick WF, Hudson PJ, Kingston T, Nameer PO, O'Mara MT, Peel AJ, Possingham H, Razgour O, Reeder DM, Ruiz-Aravena M, Simmons NB, Srinivas PN, Tabor GM, Tanshi I, Thompson IG, Vanak AT, Vora NM, Willison CE, Keeley ATH. Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2577. [PMID: 38531842 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46151-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raina K Plowright
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
| | - Aliyu N Ahmed
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Thomas W Crowther
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Imran Ejotre
- Department of Biology, Muni University, P.O. Box 725, Arua, Uganda
| | - Christina L Faust
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Winifred F Frick
- Bat Conservation International, Austin, TX, 78746, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA
| | - Peter J Hudson
- Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, 16801, USA
| | - Tigga Kingston
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, 79409-3131, USA
| | - P O Nameer
- College of Climate Change and Environmental Science, Kerala Agricultural University, Kerala, 680 656, India
| | | | - Alison J Peel
- Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, 4111, Australia
| | - Hugh Possingham
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
| | - Orly Razgour
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK
| | - DeeAnn M Reeder
- Department of Biology, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA, 17937, USA
| | - Manuel Ruiz-Aravena
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
- Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, 4111, Australia
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, USA
| | - Nancy B Simmons
- Department of Mammalogy, Division of Vertebrate Zoology, American Museum of Natural History, New York City, NY, 10024, USA
| | | | - Gary M Tabor
- Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Bozeman, MT, 59771, USA
| | - Iroro Tanshi
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
- Small Mammal Conservation Organization, Benin City, 300251, Nigeria
- Department of Animal and Environmental Biology, University of Benin, Benin City, 300000, Nigeria
| | | | - Abi T Vanak
- Centre for Policy Design, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bengaluru, Karnataka, 560064, India
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa
| | - Neil M Vora
- Conservation International, Arlington, VA, 22202, USA
| | - Charley E Willison
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
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Ellwanger JH, Chies JAB. Zoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better prevention. Genet Mol Biol 2021; 44:e20200355. [PMID: 34096963 PMCID: PMC8182890 DOI: 10.1590/1678-4685-gmb-2020-0355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Accepted: 04/05/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is called “zoonotic spillover”. Most human infectious diseases (60-75%) are derived from pathogens that originally circulated in non-human animal species. This demonstrates that spillover has a fundamental role in the emergence of new human infectious diseases. Understanding the factors that facilitate the transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is essential to establish strategies focused on the reduction of the frequency of spillover events. In this context, this article describes the basic aspects of zoonotic spillover and the main factors involved in spillover events, considering the role of the inter-species interactions, phylogenetic distance between host species, environmental drivers, and specific characteristics of the pathogens, animals, and humans. As an example, the factors involved in the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are discussed, indicating what can be learned from this public health emergency, and what can be applied to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, this article discusses actions to prevent or reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel Henrique Ellwanger
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Departamento de Genética, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular, Laboratório de Imunobiologia e Imunogenética, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | - José Artur Bogo Chies
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Departamento de Genética, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular, Laboratório de Imunobiologia e Imunogenética, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
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3
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Williamson KM, Wheeler S, Kerr J, Bennett J, Freeman P, Kohlhagen J, Peel AJ, Eby P, Merritt T, Housen T, Dalton C, Durrheim DN. Hendra in the Hunter Valley. One Health 2020; 10:100162. [PMID: 33117876 PMCID: PMC7582210 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2020] [Revised: 08/10/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area. No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels. This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events. In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia. This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection. Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.
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Affiliation(s)
- K M Williamson
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.,Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - S Wheeler
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.,Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - J Kerr
- Hunter Local Land Services, NSW, Australia
| | - J Bennett
- Hunter Local Land Services, NSW, Australia
| | - P Freeman
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, NSW, Australia
| | - J Kohlhagen
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
| | - A J Peel
- Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - P Eby
- Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.,University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - T Merritt
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
| | - T Housen
- Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - C Dalton
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
| | - D N Durrheim
- Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
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Martin G, Becker DJ, Plowright RK. Environmental Persistence of Influenza H5N1 Is Driven by Temperature and Salinity: Insights From a Bayesian Meta-Analysis. Front Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2018.00131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
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Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Plowright RK, Chen C, Roberts B, Skerratt LF. Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors. ECOHEALTH 2018; 15:526-542. [PMID: 29349533 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-017-1309-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2016] [Revised: 10/13/2017] [Accepted: 11/13/2017] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martin
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.
| | - Carlos Yanez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Raina K Plowright
- Bozeman Disease Ecology Lab, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Carla Chen
- Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Billie Roberts
- Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia
| | - Lee F Skerratt
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Chen C, Plowright RK, Webb RJ, Skerratt LF. Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk. ECOHEALTH 2018; 15:509-525. [PMID: 29556762 PMCID: PMC6245089 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2017] [Revised: 12/10/2017] [Accepted: 01/29/2018] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martin
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.
- , Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico.
- Ecological Health Research Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St. Mary's campus, Praed Street, London, W2 1NY, UK.
| | - Carlos Yanez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Carla Chen
- Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Raina K Plowright
- Bozeman Disease Ecology Lab, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Rebecca J Webb
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Lee F Skerratt
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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Kessler MK, Becker DJ, Peel AJ, Justice NV, Lunn T, Crowley DE, Jones DN, Eby P, Sánchez CA, Plowright RK. Changing resource landscapes and spillover of henipaviruses. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2018; 1429:78-99. [PMID: 30138535 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2018] [Revised: 05/11/2018] [Accepted: 05/29/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Old World fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) provide critical pollination and seed dispersal services to forest ecosystems across Africa, Asia, and Australia. In each of these regions, pteropodids have been identified as natural reservoir hosts for henipaviruses. The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus and Nipah virus, which regularly spill over from bats to domestic animals and humans in Australia and Asia, and a suite of largely uncharacterized African henipaviruses. Rapid change in fruit bat habitat and associated shifts in their ecology and behavior are well documented, with evidence suggesting that altered diet, roosting habitat, and movement behaviors are increasing spillover risk of bat-borne viruses. We review the ways that changing resource landscapes affect the processes that culminate in cross-species transmission of henipaviruses, from reservoir host density and distribution to within-host immunity and recipient host exposure. We evaluate existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge that are limiting our understanding of the ecological drivers of henipavirus spillover. When considering spillover in the context of land-use change, we emphasize that it is especially important to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and resource provisioning on these processes, and to jointly consider changes in resource abundance, quality, and composition.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel J Becker
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana.,The Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
| | - Alison J Peel
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Nathan V Justice
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
| | - Tamika Lunn
- The Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Daniel E Crowley
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
| | - Devin N Jones
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
| | - Peggy Eby
- The School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Cecilia A Sánchez
- The Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.,The Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
| | - Raina K Plowright
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana.,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana
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