Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover

OBJECTIVE

To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission.

METHODS

Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021).

RESULTS

The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Applications of VirScan to broad serological profiling of bat reservoirs for emerging zoonoses

Introduction

Bats are important providers of ecosystem services such as pollination, seed dispersal, and insect control but also act as natural reservoirs for virulent zoonotic viruses. Bats host multiple viruses that cause life-threatening pathology in other animals and humans but, themselves, experience limited pathological disease from infection. Despite bats' importance as reservoirs for several zoonotic viruses, we know little about the broader viral diversity that they host. Bat virus surveillance efforts are challenged by difficulties of field capture and the limited scope of targeted PCR- or ELISA-based molecular and serological detection. Additionally, virus shedding is often transient, thus also limiting insights gained from nucleic acid testing of field specimens. Phage ImmunoPrecipitation Sequencing (PhIP-Seq), a broad serological tool used previously to comprehensively profile viral exposure history in humans, offers an exciting prospect for viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, including bats.

Methods

Here, for the first time, we apply PhIP-Seq technology to bat serum, using a viral peptide library originally designed to simultaneously assay exposures to the entire human virome.

Results

Using VirScan, we identified past exposures to 57 viral genera-including betacoronaviruses, henipaviruses, lyssaviruses, and filoviruses-in semi-captive Pteropus alecto and to nine viral genera in captive Eonycteris spelaea. Consistent with results from humans, we find that both total peptide hits (the number of enriched viral peptides in our library) and the corresponding number of inferred past virus exposures in bat hosts were correlated with poor bat body condition scores and increased with age. High and low body condition scores were associated with either seropositive or seronegative status for different viruses, though in general, virus-specific age-seroprevalence curves defied assumptions of lifelong immunizing infection, suggesting that many bat viruses may circulate via complex transmission dynamics.

Discussion

Overall, our work emphasizes the utility of applying biomedical tools, like PhIP-Seq, first developed for humans to viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, while highlighting opportunities for taxon-specific improvements.

Viral Co-Infection in Bats: A Systematic Review

Co-infection is an underappreciated phenomenon in contemporary disease ecology despite its ubiquity and importance in nature. Viruses, and other co-infecting agents, can interact in ways that shape host and agent communities, influence infection dynamics, and drive evolutionary selective pressures. Bats are host to many viruses of zoonotic potential and have drawn increasing attention in their role as wildlife reservoirs for human spillover. However, the role of co-infection in driving viral transmission dynamics within bats is unknown. Here, we systematically review peer-reviewed literature reporting viral co-infections in bats. We show that viral co-infection is common in bats but is often only reported as an incidental finding. Biases identified in our study database related to virus and host species were pre-existing in virus studies of bats generally. Studies largely speculated on the role co-infection plays in viral recombination and few investigated potential drivers or impacts of co-infection. Our results demonstrate that current knowledge of co-infection in bats is an ad hoc by-product of viral discovery efforts, and that future targeted co-infection studies will improve our understanding of the role it plays. Adding to the broader context of co-infection studies in other wildlife species, we anticipate our review will inform future co-infection study design and reporting in bats. Consideration of detection strategy, including potential viral targets, and appropriate analysis methodology will provide more robust results and facilitate further investigation of the role of viral co-infection in bat reservoirs.

Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat¹. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors^2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified⁴. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.

Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis

BACKGROUND

Billions of people living in poverty are at risk of environmentally mediated infectious diseases-that is, pathogens with environmental reservoirs that affect disease persistence and control and where environmental control of pathogens can reduce human risk. The complex ecology of these diseases creates a global health problem not easily solved with medical treatment alone.

METHODS

We quantified the current global disease burden caused by environmentally mediated infectious diseases and used a structural equation model to explore environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens across all countries.

FINDINGS

We found that around 80% (455 of 560) of WHO-tracked pathogen species known to infect humans are environmentally mediated, causing about 40% (129 488 of 359 341 disability-adjusted life years) of contemporary infectious disease burden (global loss of 130 million years of healthy life annually). The majority of this environmentally mediated disease burden occurs in tropical countries, and the poorest countries carry the highest burdens across all latitudes. We found weak associations between disease burden and biodiversity or agricultural land use at the global scale. In contrast, the proportion of people with rural poor livelihoods in a country was a strong proximate indicator of environmentally mediated infectious disease burden. Political stability and wealth were associated with improved sanitation, better health care, and lower proportions of rural poverty, indirectly resulting in lower burdens of environmentally mediated infections. Rarely, environmentally mediated pathogens can evolve into global pandemics (eg, HIV, COVID-19) affecting even the wealthiest communities.

INTERPRETATION

The high and uneven burden of environmentally mediated infections highlights the need for innovative social and ecological interventions to complement biomedical advances in the pursuit of global health and sustainability goals.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, Stanford University, and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Land use, season, and parasitism predict metal concentrations in Australian flying fox fur

Urban-living wildlife can be exposed to metal contaminants dispersed into the environment through industrial, residential, and agricultural applications. Metal exposure carries lethal and sublethal consequences for animals; in particular, heavy metals (e.g. arsenic, lead, mercury) can damage organs and act as carcinogens. Many bat species reside and forage in human-modified habitats and could be exposed to contaminants in air, water, and food. We quantified metal concentrations in fur samples from three flying fox species (Pteropus fruit bats) captured at eight sites in eastern Australia. For subsets of bats, we assessed ectoparasite burden, haemoparasite infection, and viral infection, and performed white blood cell differential counts. We examined relationships among metal concentrations, environmental predictors (season, land use surrounding capture site), and individual predictors (species, sex, age, body condition, parasitism, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio). As expected, bats captured at sites with greater human impact had higher metal loads. At one site with seasonal sampling, bats had higher metal concentrations in winter than in summer, possibly owing to changes in food availability and foraging. Relationships between ectoparasites and metal concentrations were mixed, suggesting multiple causal mechanisms. There was no association between overall metal load and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, but mercury concentrations were positively correlated with this ratio, which is associated with stress in other vertebrate taxa. Comparison of our findings to those of previous flying fox studies revealed potentially harmful levels of several metals; in particular, endangered spectacled flying foxes (P. conspicillatus) exhibited high concentrations of cadmium and lead. Because some bats harbor pathogens transmissible to humans and animals, future research should explore interactions between metal exposure, immunity, and infection to assess consequences for bat and human health.

Serological evidence of a pararubulavirus and a betacoronavirus in the geographically isolated Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus natalis)

Due to their geographical isolation and small populations, insular bats may not be able to maintain acute immunizing viruses that rely on a large population for viral maintenance. Instead, endemic transmission may rely on viruses establishing persistent infections within hosts or inducing only short-lived neutralizing immunity. Therefore, studies on insular populations are valuable for developing broader understanding of viral maintenance in bats. The Christmas Island flying-fox (CIFF; Pteropus natalis) is endemic on Christmas Island, a remote Australian territory, and is an ideal model species to understand viral maintenance in small, geographically isolated bat populations. Serum or plasma (n = 190), oral swabs (n = 199), faeces (n = 31), urine (n = 32) and urine swabs (n = 25) were collected from 228 CIFFs. Samples were tested using multiplex serological and molecular assays, and attempts at virus isolation to determine the presence of paramyxoviruses, betacoronaviruses and Australian bat lyssavirus. Analysis of serological data provides evidence that the species is maintaining a pararubulavirus and a betacoronavirus. There was little serological evidence supporting the presence of active circulation of the other viruses assessed in the present study. No viral nucleic acid was detected and no viruses were isolated. Age-seropositivity results support the hypothesis that geographically isolated bat populations can maintain some paramyxoviruses and coronaviruses. Further studies are required to elucidate infection dynamics and characterize viruses in the CIFF. Lastly, apparent absence of some pathogens could have implications for the conservation of the CIFF if a novel disease were introduced into the population through human carriage or an invasive species. Adopting increased biosecurity protocols for ships porting on Christmas Island and for researchers and bat carers working with flying-foxes are recommended to decrease the risk of pathogen introduction and contribute to the health and conservation of the species.

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win-win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all" and "conserve life on land and below water", what progress has been made with win-win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win-win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.

Morphological and quantitative analysis of leukocytes in free-living Australian black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto)

The black flying fox (Pteropus alecto) is a natural reservoir for Hendra virus, a paramyxovirus that causes fatal infections in humans and horses in Australia. Increased excretion of Hendra virus by flying foxes has been hypothesized to be associated with physiological or energetic stress in the reservoir hosts. The objective of this study was to explore the leukocyte profiles of wild-caught P. alecto, with a focus on describing the morphology of each cell type to facilitate identification for clinical purposes and future virus spillover research. To this end, we have created an atlas of images displaying the commonly observed morphological variations across each cell type. We provide quantitative and morphological information regarding the leukocyte profiles in bats captured at two roost sites located in Redcliffe and Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia, over the course of two years. We examined the morphology of leukocytes, platelets, and erythrocytes of P. alecto using cytochemical staining and characterization of blood films through light microscopy. Leukocyte profiles were broadly consistent with previous studies of P. alecto and other Pteropus species. A small proportion of individual samples presented evidence of hemoparasitic infection or leukocyte morphological traits that are relevant for future research on bat health, including unique large granular lymphocytes. Considering hematology is done by visual inspection of blood smears, examples of the varied cell morphologies are included as a visual guide. To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first qualitative assessment of P. alecto leukocytes, as well as the first set of published hematology reference images for this species.

Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat-coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic.

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Circulating in Black Flying Foxes and Grey-Headed Flying Foxes, Australia

A novel Hendra virus variant, genotype 2, was recently discovered in a horse that died after acute illness and in Pteropus flying fox tissues in Australia. We detected the variant in flying fox urine, the pathway relevant for spillover, supporting an expanded geographic range of Hendra virus risk to horses and humans.

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Detected by Sentinel Surveillance of Horses in Australia

We identified and isolated a novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant not detected by routine testing from a horse in Queensland, Australia, that died from acute illness with signs consistent with HeV infection. Using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we determined the variant had ≈83% nt identity with prototypic HeV. In silico and in vitro comparisons of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV support that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for postexposure prophylaxis and current equine vaccine will be effective against this variant. An updated quantitative PCR developed for routine surveillance resulted in subsequent case detection. Genetic sequence consistency with virus detected in grey-headed flying foxes suggests the variant circulates at least among this species. Studies are needed to determine infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host coevolution, and spillover dynamics for this virus. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to acknowledge HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to bats - An Australian assessment

SARS-CoV-2, the cause of COVID-19, infected over 100 million people globally by February 2021. Reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to other species has been documented in pet cats and dogs, big cats and gorillas in zoos, and farmed mink. As SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to known bat viruses, assessment of the potential risk of transmission of the virus from humans to bats, and its subsequent impacts on conservation and public health, is warranted. A qualitative risk assessment was conducted by a multi-disciplinary group to assess this risk in bats in the Australian context, with the aim of informing risk management strategies for human activities involving interactions with bats. The overall risk of SARS-CoV-2 establishing in an Australian bat population was assessed to be Low, however with a High level of uncertainty. The outcome of the assessment indicates that, for the Australian situation where the prevalence of COVID-19 in humans is very low, it is reasonable for research and rehabilitation of bats to continue, provided additional biosecurity measures are applied. Risk assessment is challenging for an emerging disease where information is lacking and the situation is changing rapidly; assessments should be revised if human prevalence or other important factors change significantly. The framework developed here, based on established animal disease risk assessment approaches adapted to assess reverse zoonotic transmission, has potential application to a range of wildlife species and situations.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m² or m³ ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

Conventional wisdom on roosting behavior of Australian flying-foxes-A critical review, and evaluation using new data

Fruit bats (Family: Pteropodidae) are animals of great ecological and economic importance, yet their populations are threatened by ongoing habitat loss and human persecution. A lack of ecological knowledge for the vast majority of Pteropodid species presents additional challenges for their conservation and management.In Australia, populations of flying-fox species (Genus: Pteropus) are declining and management approaches are highly contentious. Australian flying-fox roosts are exposed to management regimes involving habitat modification, through human-wildlife conflict management policies, or vegetation restoration programs. Details on the fine-scale roosting ecology of flying-foxes are not sufficiently known to provide evidence-based guidance for these regimes, and the impact on flying-foxes of these habitat modifications is poorly understood.We seek to identify and test commonly held understandings about the roosting ecology of Australian flying-foxes to inform practical recommendations and guide and refine management practices at flying-fox roosts.We identify 31 statements relevant to understanding of flying-fox roosting structure and synthesize these in the context of existing literature. We then contribute a contemporary, fine-scale dataset on within-roost structure to further evaluate 11 of these statements. The new dataset encompasses 13-monthly repeat measures from 2,522 spatially referenced roost trees across eight sites in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.We show evidence of sympatry and indirect competition between species, including spatial segregation of black and grey-headed flying-foxes within roosts and seasonal displacement of both species by little red flying-foxes. We demonstrate roost-specific annual trends in occupancy and abundance and provide updated demographic information including the spatial and temporal distributions of males and females within roosts.Insights from our systematic and quantitative study will be important to guide evidence-based recommendations on restoration and management and will be crucial for the implementation of priority recovery actions for the preservation of these species in the future.

Estimating viral prevalence with data fusion for adaptive two-phase pooled sampling

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of efficient sampling strategies and statistical methods for monitoring infection prevalence, both in humans and in reservoir hosts. Pooled testing can be an efficient tool for learning pathogen prevalence in a population. Typically, pooled testing requires a second-phase retesting procedure to identify infected individuals, but when the goal is solely to learn prevalence in a population, such as a reservoir host, there are more efficient methods for allocating the second-phase samples.To estimate pathogen prevalence in a population, this manuscript presents an approach for data fusion with two-phased testing of pooled samples that allows more efficient estimation of prevalence with less samples than traditional methods. The first phase uses pooled samples to estimate the population prevalence and inform efficient strategies for the second phase. To combine information from both phases, we introduce a Bayesian data fusion procedure that combines pooled samples with individual samples for joint inferences about the population prevalence.Data fusion procedures result in more efficient estimation of prevalence than traditional procedures that only use individual samples or a single phase of pooled sampling.The manuscript presents guidance on implementing the first-phase and second-phase sampling plans using data fusion. Such methods can be used to assess the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts to humans, or to track pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 in populations.

Optimizing noninvasive sampling of a zoonotic bat virus

Outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to bat-borne zoonoses, which has motivated increased ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations. Field sampling methods often collect pooled samples of bat excreta from plastic sheets placed under-roosts. However, positive bias is introduced because multiple individuals may contribute to pooled samples, making studies of viral dynamics difficult. Here, we explore the general issue of bias in spatial sample pooling using Hendra virus in Australian bats as a case study. We assessed the accuracy of different under-roost sampling designs using generalized additive models and field data from individually captured bats and pooled urine samples. We then used theoretical simulation models of bat density and under-roost sampling to understand the mechanistic drivers of bias. The most commonly used sampling design estimated viral prevalence 3.2 times higher than individual-level data, with positive bias 5-7 times higher than other designs due to spatial autocorrelation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in roosts. Simulation results indicate using a stratified random design to collect 30-40 pooled urine samples from 80 to 100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75-1 m2, and would allow estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. These results show that widely used under-roost sampling techniques are highly sensitive to viral presence, but lack specificity, providing limited information regarding viral dynamics. Improved estimation of true prevalence can be attained with minor changes to existing designs such as reducing sheet size, increasing sheet number, and spreading sheets out within the roost area. Our findings provide insight into how spatial sample pooling is vulnerable to bias for a wide range of systems in disease ecology, where optimal sampling design is influenced by pathogen prevalence, host population density, and patterns of aggregation.

Chlamydia Psittaci ST24: Clonal Strains of One Health Importance Dominate in Australian Horse, Bird and Human Infections

Chlamydia psittaci is traditionally regarded as a globally distributed avian pathogen that can cause zoonotic spill-over. Molecular research has identified an extended global host range and significant genetic diversity. However, Australia has reported a reduced host range (avian, horse, and human) with a dominance of clonal strains, denoted ST24. To better understand the widespread of this strain type in Australia, multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and ompA genotyping were applied on samples from a range of hosts (avian, equine, marsupial, and bovine) from Australia. MLST confirms that clonal ST24 strains dominate infections of Australian psittacine and equine hosts (82/88; 93.18%). However, this study also found novel hosts (Australian white ibis, King parrots, racing pigeon, bovine, and a wallaby) and demonstrated that strain diversity does exist in Australia. The discovery of a C. psittaci novel strain (ST306) in a novel host, the Western brush wallaby, is the first detection in a marsupial. Analysis of the results of this study applied a multidisciplinary approach regarding Chlamydia infections, equine infectious disease, ecology, and One Health. Recommendations include an update for the descriptive framework of C. psittaci disease and cell biology work to inform pathogenicity and complement molecular epidemiology.

Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: Impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics

The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment.

We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree‐dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts.

We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean‐field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying‐fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types.

Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS‐CoV‐2.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area.

No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels.

This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

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In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia.

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This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection.

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Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.

Species Traits and Hotspots Associated with Ross River Virus Infection in Nonhuman Vertebrates in South East Queensland

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus associated with high public health and economic burdens across Australia, but particularly in South East Queensland (SEQ). Despite this high burden, humans are considered incidental hosts. Transmission of RRV is maintained among mosquitoes and many nonhuman vertebrate reservoir hosts, although the relative contributions of each of these hosts are unclear. To clarify the importance of a range of vertebrates in RRV transmission in SEQ, a total of 595 serum samples from 31 species were examined for RRV exposure using a gold-standard plaque reduction neutralization test. Data were analyzed statistically using generalized linear models and a coefficient inference tree, and spatially. RRV exposure was highly variable between and within species groups. Critically, species group ("placental mammal," "marsupial," and "bird"), which has previously been used as a proxy for reservoir hosts, was a poor correlate for exposure. Instead, we found that generalized "diet" and greater "body mass" were most strongly correlated with seropositivity. We also identified significant differences in seropositivity between the two major possum species (ringtail possums and brushtail possums), which are ecologically and taxonomically different. Finally, we identified distinct hotspots and coldspots of seropositivity in nonhuman vertebrates, which correlated with human notification data. This is the largest diversity of species tested for RRV in a single study to date. The analysis methods within this study provide a framework for analyzing serological data in combination with species traits for other zoonotic disease, but more specifically for RRV highlight areas to target further public health research and surveillance effort.

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Associations Between Ross River Virus Infection in Humans and Vector-Vertebrate Community Ecology in Brisbane, Australia

Transmission of vector-borne pathogens can vary in complexity from single-vector, single-host systems through to multivector, multihost vertebrate systems. Understanding the dynamics of transmission is important for disease prevention efforts, but is dependent on disentangling complex interactions within coupled natural systems. Ross River virus (RRV) is a multivector multihost pathogen responsible for the greatest number of notified vector-borne pathogen infections in humans in Australia. Current evidence suggests that nonhuman vertebrates are critical for the maintenance and spillover of RRV into mosquito populations. Yet, there is a limited knowledge of which mosquito vector species and amplifying vertebrate host species are most important for transmission of RRV to humans. We conducted field surveys of nonhuman vertebrates and mosquitoes in the RRV endemic city of Brisbane, Australia, to assess the effect of vector and host community structure on human RRV notifications. Six suburbs were selected across a gradient of human disease notification rates. Differences in vertebrate and mosquito compositions were observed across all suburbs. Suburbs with higher RRV notification rates contained greater vertebrate biomass (dominated by the presence of horses) and higher mosquito abundances. This study suggests that horse-mosquito interactions should be considered in more detail and that vertebrate biomass and mosquito abundance be incorporated into future RRV modeling studies and considered in public health strategies for RRV management.

Synchronous shedding of multiple bat paramyxoviruses coincides with peak periods of Hendra virus spillover

Within host-parasite communities, viral co-circulation and co-infections of hosts are the norm, yet studies of significant emerging zoonoses tend to focus on a single parasite species within the host. Using a multiplexed paramyxovirus bead-based PCR on urine samples from Australian flying foxes, we show that multi-viral shedding from flying fox populations is common. We detected up to nine bat paramyxoviruses shed synchronously. Multi-viral shedding infrequently coalesced into an extreme, brief and spatially restricted shedding pulse, coinciding with peak spillover of Hendra virus, an emerging fatal zoonotic pathogen of high interest. Such extreme pulses of multi-viral shedding could easily be missed during routine surveillance yet have potentially serious consequences for spillover of novel pathogens to humans and domestic animal hosts. We also detected co-occurrence patterns suggestive of the presence of interactions among viruses, such as facilitation and cross-immunity. We propose that multiple viruses may be interacting, influencing the shedding and spillover of zoonotic pathogens. Understanding these interactions in the context of broader scale drivers, such as habitat loss, may help predict shedding pulses of Hendra virus and other fatal zoonoses.

Dose-response and transmission: the nexus between reservoir hosts, environment and recipient hosts

Dose is the nexus between exposure and all upstream processes that determine pathogen pressure, and is thereby an important element underlying disease dynamics. Understanding the relationship between dose and disease is particularly important in the context of spillover, where nonlinearities in the dose-response could determine the likelihood of transmission. There is a need to explore dose-response models for directly transmitted and zoonotic pathogens, and how these interactions integrate within-host factors to consider, for example, heterogeneity in host susceptibility and dose-dependent antagonism. Here, we review the dose-response literature and discuss the unique role dose-response models have to play in understanding and predicting spillover events. We present a re-analysis of dose-response experiments for two important zoonotic pathogens (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Nipah virus), to exemplify potential difficulties in differentiating between appropriate models with small exposure experiment datasets. We also discuss the data requirements needed for robust selection between dose-response models. We then suggest how these processes could be modelled to gain more realistic predictions of zoonotic transmission outcomes and highlight the exciting opportunities that could arise with increased collaboration between the virology and epidemiology disciplines. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover

Spillover of a pathogen from a wildlife reservoir into a human or livestock host requires the pathogen to overcome a hierarchical series of barriers. Interventions aimed at one or more of these barriers may be able to prevent the occurrence of spillover. Here, we demonstrate how interventions that target the ecological context in which spillover occurs (i.e. ecological interventions) can complement conventional approaches like vaccination, treatment, disinfection and chemical control. Accelerating spillover owing to environmental change requires effective, affordable, durable and scalable solutions that fully harness the complex processes involved in cross-species pathogen spillover.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’.

What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts

Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1-2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa- and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats

Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food. We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa- and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data. To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa- and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species. We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra-/Nipah-related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar-related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola-related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population-level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age-structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult-age bats. Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population-level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally.

Interpreting mosquito feeding patterns in Australia through an ecological lens: an analysis of blood meal studies

Background

Mosquito-borne pathogens contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, infecting millions of people each year. Mosquito feeding is critical to the transmission dynamics of pathogens, and thus it is important to understanding and interpreting mosquito feeding patterns. In this paper we explore mosquito feeding patterns and their implications for disease ecology through a meta-analysis of published blood meal results collected across Australia from more than 12,000 blood meals from 22 species. To assess mosquito-vertebrate associations and identify mosquitoes on a spectrum of generalist or specialist feeders, we analysed blood meal data in two ways; first using a novel odds ratio analysis, and secondly by calculating Shannon’s diversity scores.

Results

We find that each mosquito species had a unique feeding association with different vertebrates, suggesting species-specific feeding patterns. Broadly, mosquito species could be grouped broadly into those that were primarily ornithophilic and those that fed more often on livestock. Aggregated feeding patterns observed across Australia were not explained by intrinsic variables such as mosquito genetics or larval habitats. We discuss the implications for disease transmission by vector mosquito species classified as generalist-feeders (such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris), or specialists (such as Aedes aegypti) in light of potential influences on mosquito host choice.

Conclusions

Overall, we find that whilst existing blood meal studies in Australia are useful for investigating mosquito feeding patterns, standardisation of blood meal study methodologies and analyses, including the incorporation of vertebrate surveys, would improve predictions of the impact of vector-host interactions on disease ecology. Our analysis can also be used as a framework to explore mosquito-vertebrate associations, in which host availability data is unavailable, in other global systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3405-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Extreme Competence: Keystone Hosts of Infections

Individual hosts differ extensively in their competence for parasites, but traditional research has discounted this variation, partly because modeling such heterogeneity is difficult. This discounting has diminished as tools have improved and recognition has grown that some hosts, the extremely competent, can have exceptional impacts on disease dynamics. Most prominent among these hosts are the superspreaders, but other forms of extreme competence (EC) exist and others await discovery; each with potentially strong but distinct implications for disease emergence and spread. Here, we propose a framework for the study and discovery of EC, suitable for different host-parasite systems, which we hope enhances our understanding of how parasites circulate and evolve in host communities.

Coronaviruses and Australian bats: a review in the midst of a pandemic

Australia’s 81 bat species play vital ecological and economic roles via suppression of insect pests and maintenance of native forests through pollination and seed dispersal. Bats also host a wide diversity of coronaviruses globally, including several viral species that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2 and other emergent human respiratory coronaviruses. Although there are hundreds of studies of bat coronaviruses globally, there are only three studies of bat coronaviruses in Australian bat species, and no systematic studies of drivers of shedding. These limited studies have identified two betacoronaviruses and seven alphacoronaviruses, but less than half of Australian species are included in these studies and further research is therefore needed. There is no current evidence of spillover of coronaviruses from bats to humans in Australia, either directly or indirectly via intermediate hosts. The limited available data are inadequate to determine whether this lack of evidence indicates that spillover does not occur or occurs but is undetected. Conversely, multiple international agencies have flagged the potential transmission of human coronaviruses (including SARS CoV-2) from humans to bats, and the consequent threat to bat conservation and human health. Australia has a long history of bat research across a broad range of ecological and associated disciplines, as well as expertise in viral spillover from bats. This strong foundation is an ideal platform for developing integrative approaches to understanding bat health and sustainable protection of human health.

Changing resource landscapes and spillover of henipaviruses

Old World fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) provide critical pollination and seed dispersal services to forest ecosystems across Africa, Asia, and Australia. In each of these regions, pteropodids have been identified as natural reservoir hosts for henipaviruses. The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus and Nipah virus, which regularly spill over from bats to domestic animals and humans in Australia and Asia, and a suite of largely uncharacterized African henipaviruses. Rapid change in fruit bat habitat and associated shifts in their ecology and behavior are well documented, with evidence suggesting that altered diet, roosting habitat, and movement behaviors are increasing spillover risk of bat-borne viruses. We review the ways that changing resource landscapes affect the processes that culminate in cross-species transmission of henipaviruses, from reservoir host density and distribution to within-host immunity and recipient host exposure. We evaluate existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge that are limiting our understanding of the ecological drivers of henipavirus spillover. When considering spillover in the context of land-use change, we emphasize that it is especially important to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and resource provisioning on these processes, and to jointly consider changes in resource abundance, quality, and composition.

Environmental drivers of spatiotemporal foraging intensity in fruit bats and implications for Hendra virus ecology

In the Australian subtropics, flying-foxes (family Pteropididae) play a fundamental ecological role as forest pollinators. Flying-foxes are also reservoirs of the fatal zoonosis, Hendra virus. Understanding flying fox foraging ecology, particularly in agricultural areas during winter, is critical to determine their role in transmitting Hendra virus to horses and humans. We developed a spatiotemporal model of flying-fox foraging intensity based on foraging patterns of 37 grey-headed flying-foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) using GPS tracking devices and boosted regression trees. We validated the model with independent population counts and summarized temporal patterns in terms of spatial resource concentration. We found that spatial resource concentration was highest in late-summer and lowest in winter, with lowest values in winter 2011, the same year an unprecedented cluster of spillover events occurred in Queensland and New South Wales. Spatial resource concentration was positively correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation at 3–8 month time lags. Based on shared foraging traits with the primary reservoir of Hendra virus (Pteropus alecto), we used our results to develop hypotheses on how regional climatic history, eucalypt phenology, and foraging behaviour may contribute to the predominance of winter spillovers, and how these phenomena connote foraging habitat conservation as a public health intervention.

The non-human reservoirs of Ross River virus: a systematic review of the evidence

Understanding the non-human reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens is critical for effective disease control, but identifying the relative contributions of the various reservoirs of multi-host pathogens is challenging. For Ross River virus (RRV), knowledge of the transmission dynamics, in particular the role of non-human species, is important. In Australia, RRV accounts for the highest number of human mosquito-borne virus infections. The long held dogma that marsupials are better reservoirs than placental mammals, which are better reservoirs than birds, deserves critical review. We present a review of 50 years of evidence on non-human reservoirs of RRV, which includes experimental infection studies, virus isolation studies and serosurveys. We find that whilst marsupials are competent reservoirs of RRV, there is potential for placental mammals and birds to contribute to transmission dynamics. However, the role of these animals as reservoirs of RRV remains unclear due to fragmented evidence and sampling bias. Future investigations of RRV reservoirs should focus on quantifying complex transmission dynamics across environments.

Support for viral persistence in bats from age-specific serology and models of maternal immunity

Spatiotemporally-localised prediction of virus emergence from wildlife requires focused studies on the ecology and immunology of reservoir hosts in their native habitat. Reliable predictions from mathematical models remain difficult in most systems due to a dearth of appropriate empirical data. Our goal was to study the circulation and immune dynamics of zoonotic viruses in bat populations and investigate the effects of maternally-derived and acquired immunity on viral persistence. Using rare age-specific serological data from wild-caught Eidolon helvum fruit bats as a case study, we estimated viral transmission parameters for a stochastic infection model. We estimated mean durations of around 6 months for maternally-derived immunity to Lagos bat virus and African henipavirus, whereas acquired immunity was long-lasting (Lagos bat virus: mean 12 years, henipavirus: mean 4 years). In the presence of a seasonal birth pulse, the effect of maternally-derived immunity on virus persistence within modelled bat populations was highly dependent on transmission characteristics. To explain previous reports of viral persistence within small natural and captive E. helvum populations, we hypothesise that some bats must experience prolonged infectious periods or within-host latency. By further elucidating plausible mechanisms of virus persistence in bat populations, we contribute to guidance of future field studies.

Domesticated animals as hosts of henipaviruses and filoviruses: A systematic review

Bat-borne viruses carry undeniable risks to the health of human beings and animals, and there is growing recognition of the need for a 'One Health' approach to understand their frequently complex spill-over routes. While domesticated animals can play central roles in major spill-over events of zoonotic bat-borne viruses, for example during the pig-amplified Malaysian Nipah virus outbreak of 1998-1999, the extent of their potential to act as bridging or amplifying species for these viruses has not been characterised systematically. This review aims to compile current knowledge on the role of domesticated animals as hosts of two types of bat-borne viruses, henipaviruses and filoviruses. A systematic literature search of these virus-host interactions in domesticated animals identified 72 relevant studies, which were categorised by year, location, design and type of evidence generated. The review then focusses on Africa as a case study, comparing research efforts in domesticated animals and bats with the distributions of documented human cases. Major gaps remain in our knowledge of the potential ability of domesticated animals to contract or spread these zoonoses. Closing these gaps will be necessary to fully evaluate and mitigate spill-over risks of these viruses, especially with global agricultural intensification.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape-scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.

Transmission or Within-Host Dynamics Driving Pulses of Zoonotic Viruses in Reservoir-Host Populations

Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host–pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Bat trait, genetic and pathogen data from large-scale investigations of African fruit bats, Eidolon helvum

Bats, including African straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum), have been highlighted as reservoirs of many recently emerged zoonotic viruses. This common, widespread and ecologically important species was the focus of longitudinal and continent-wide studies of the epidemiological and ecology of Lagos bat virus, henipaviruses and Achimota viruses. Here we present a spatial, morphological, demographic, genetic and serological dataset encompassing 2827 bats from nine countries over an 8-year period. Genetic data comprises cytochrome b mitochondrial sequences (n=608) and microsatellite genotypes from 18 loci (n=544). Tooth-cementum analyses (n=316) allowed derivation of rare age-specific serologic data for a lyssavirus, a henipavirus and two rubulaviruses. This dataset contributes a substantial volume of data on the ecology of E. helvum and its viruses and will be valuable for a wide range of studies, including viral transmission dynamic modelling in age-structured populations, investigation of seasonal reproductive asynchrony in wide-ranging species, ecological niche modelling, inference of island colonisation history, exploration of relationships between island and body size, and various spatial analyses of demographic, morphometric or serological data.

Can survival analyses detect hunting pressure in a highly connected species? Lessons from straw-coloured fruit bats

Animal behaviour, social structure and population dynamics affect community structure, interspecific interactions, and a species' resilience to harvesting. Building on new life history information for the straw-coloured fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) from multiple localities across Africa, we used survival analyses based on tooth-cementum annuli data to test alternative hypotheses relating to hunting pressure, demography and population connectivity. The estimated annual survival probability across Africa was high (≥ 0.64), but was greatest in colonies with the highest proportion of males. This difference in sex survival, along with age and sex capture biases and out-of-phase breeding across the species' distribution, leads us to hypothesize that E. helvum has a complex social structure. We found no evidence for additive mortality in heavily hunted populations, with most colonies having high survival with constant risk of mortality despite different hunting pressure. Given E. helvum's slow life history strategy, similar survival patterns and rate among colonies suggest that local movement and regional migration may compensate for local excess hunting, but these were also not clearly detected. Our study suggests that spatio-temporal data are necessary to appropriately assess the population dynamics and conservation status of this and other species with similar traits.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.