Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover

OBJECTIVE

To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission.

METHODS

Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021).

RESULTS

The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Effect of B vitamins and genetics on success of in-vitro fertilisation: prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a need to understand what affects the success of in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) and the rate of resulting twin births so that pregnancy rates can be improved and multiple gestations avoided. Our aim was to assess the role of B vitamins and genetics.

METHODS

We did a prospective cohort study of 602 women undergoing fertility treatment. We assessed intake of folate and vitamin B12 with a questionnaire and measured their plasma and red-blood-cell concentrations by radioimmunoassay. We measured five B-vitamin-related gene variants in women who received treatment and in 932 women who conceived naturally.

FINDINGS

The likelihood of a twin birth after IVF rose with increased concentrations of plasma folate (1.52, 1.01-2.28; p=0.032) and red-cell folate (1.28, 1.00-1.65; p=0.039). There was no association between folate and vitamin B12 levels and likelihood of a successful pregnancy. Women homozygous for the 1298 CC variant of methylenetetrahydro-folate reductase (MTHFR), rather than the AA variant, were less likely to produce a livebirth after IVF (0.24, 0.08-0.71; p=0.003) or to have had a previous pregnancy (0.42, 0.21-0.81; p=0.008).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that MTHFR genotype is linked to a woman's potential to produce healthy embryos (possibly through interaction with genes related to DNA methylation). In women likely to have a successful IVF pregnancy, high folate status increases the likelihood of twin birth after multiple embryo transfer. Proposals to fortify the UK diet with folic acid could lead to an increase in the number of twins born after IVF.

Paediatric pelvic imaging: improvement in gonad shield placement by multidisciplinary audit

BACKGROUND

In 1996, there were local reports of poor gonad protection for paediatric pelvic radiographs.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the nature of the problem and make necessary improvements.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective audit of 218 paediatric pelvic radiographs was undertaken in 1997. Each radiograph was assessed for the presence of a gonad shield, appropriateness of the device and its position. A multidisciplinary team was formed with representation from radiology, radiography, orthopaedics and medical physics to investigate ways of improving technique and reducing patient dose. These included radiographer training and the introduction of digital fluoroscopy as an alternative imaging technique in follow-up patients. There were further rounds of data collection in 1998 and 1999.

RESULTS

In round 1, a gonad shield was present in 77.9 % of boys' films and 76 % of girls' films where one should have been, increasing to 85.2 % and 85.4 % respectively by round 3 of the audit (P < 0.05). Only 31.6 % of boys' devices and 21.9 % of girls' devices were correctly positioned in round 1, increasing to 78.3 % and 94.3 %, respectively, by round 3 of the audit (P < 0.05). After round 1, no inappropriate devices were used.

CONCLUSION

Audit was an effective tool in gaining the resources needed to improve technique and reduce radiation exposure in children. The multidisciplinary approach was vital in the success of this project.

How should pathogen transmission be modelled?

Host-pathogen models are essential for designing strategies for managing disease threats to humans, wild animals and domestic animals. The behaviour of these models is greatly affected by the way in which transmission between infected and susceptible hosts is modelled. Since host-pathogen models were first developed at the beginning of the 20th century, the 'mass action' assumption has almost always been used for transmission. Recently, however, it has been suggested that mass action has often been modelled wrongly. Alternative models of transmission are beginning to appear, as are empirical tests of transmission dynamics.

The impact of cardiology on the collective effective dose in the North of England

Two cardiology X-ray rooms were monitored with dose-area product meters as part of a Regional Patient Dosimetry Programme. Dose-area product measurements on over 2000 patients undergoing examinations in the cardiology rooms are presented. The data have been corrected according to patient size where possible. In room A mean dose-area product values for coronary angiography, coronary angioplasty, radiofrequency ablation and mitral valvuloplasty were found to be 47.7, 72.2, 91.1 and 161.9 Gy cm2 respectively. In room B mean dose-area product values for coronary angiography and coronary angioplasty were found to be 23.4 and 51.6 Gy cm2 respectively. Observational studies were used to deduce the typical projections and technique factors. This typical examination was used to simulate an angiogram from which it was possible to derive factors to convert measured dose-area product values into estimates of effective dose. In room A, the effective doses were estimated to be 9.4, 14.2, 17.3 and 29.3 mSv for coronary angiography, coronary angioplasty, radiofrequency ablation and mitral valvuloplasty, respectively. The effective doses during coronary angiography and coronary angioplasty, performed in room B, were found to be 4.6 and 10.2 mSv, respectively. A regional survey of the frequency of these cardiac procedures was performed. It was deduced that the annual collective effective dose from these cardiac procedures in the North of England, the former Northern Region, was 45.7 manSv.

Modelling Wildlife-Parasite Interactions to Help Plan and Interpret Field Studies

The positive role that modelling has played in the understanding of wildlife and parasite population dynamics is reviewed with particular emphasis on macroparasitic infection, and how modelling can lead to better understanding in the future is discussed.

Modelling the impact of predation on reintroductions of bridled nailtail wallabies

Predation by introduced foxes and cats is generally thought to be the main reason for the poor success rate of macropod reintroductions on the Australian mainland. Predator-prey theory suggests that predation may have particularly severe impacts on very small populations, especially if a more common primary prey species is present (such as the rabbit). Thus, a sufficiently large reintroduction may overcome predation and succeed where a smaller one would fail. The minimum viable population would, however, be much larger than that predicted by standard population-viability analysis. We use a simple stochastic model based upon the bridled nailtail wallaby to explore this possibility. Even very small amounts of predation (2-4 individuals per six months) can be sufficient to cause reintroductions of up to 50 animals to fail. No clear threshold population size beyond which reintroductions will succeed is evident and, for a given mean, the probability distribution of predation has a very limited impact on the success of reintroductions. In almost all circumstances, a single reintroduction of a given size is preferable to multiple reintroductions of the same total number of individuals.

Live-trapping of the northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus krefftii): population-size estimates and effects on individuals

The northern hairy-nosed wombat, one of the most endangered large mammals known, occurs only in Epping Forest National Park, central Queensland. The results of a 3-stage trapping programme, carried out between 1985 and 1993, were used to estimate population size by means of three separate modelling approaches: minimum number alive (MNA), mark-recapture, and trapping effort. Trapping procedure varied among sessions, and each estimator was applied to sessions only where its use was appropriate. The population-size estimate for 1985-86 was 67 (trap effort) with MNA of 58; for 1988-89 it was 62 (Jolly-Seber mark-recapture estimate), with MNA of 48 and upper 95% confidence limit of 77; and for 1993 it was 65 (Chao mark-recapture and trap effort), with MNA of 43 and upper 95% confidence limit of 186 (Chao mark-recapture). No population trends were observed, although variability in estimates and wide confidence intervals meant that power to do so was limited. Trapping affected the health and behaviour of wombats. Animals that were trapped twice within 10 nights lost an average of 0.62 kg (P = 0.006) between captures. Wombats that were trapped twice within the first four nights of traps being set on a burrow showed less weight loss than those trapped for the second time after 5-7 nights (0.23 kg v. 1.54 kg). The effects of trapping appeared to remain with animals for some time, since animals trapped twice more than 30 nights apart and within six months weighed an average of 0.5 kg less (P = 0.013) on second capture. When areas were trapped twice in succession with a 3-week gap, population-size estimates were lower for the second period of trapping. Thus, some wombats may have temporarily left areas disturbed by trapping. The deleterious impact of trapping may be reduced by restricting trapping to periods of four nights. Trapping effectiveness may be increased by minimising disturbance immediately before trapping and by moving traps between periods of trapping.