Phenotypic plasticity in bighorn sheep reproductive phenology: from individual to population

Weak coupling between energetic status and the timing of reproduction in an Arctic ungulate

Bioenergetic constraints are the ultimate determinant of the timing of reproduction, and seasonal breeding is consequently a widely observed trait. Consistent with this, attention has focused on plasticity in reproductive phenology conceptualized as a response to concomitant advances in the phenology of the environmental energy supply caused by climate change. Few studies, however, have directly compared timing of reproduction with energetic status in free-living wild animals. Here we demonstrate that neither body mass nor adiposity are strong proximate predictors of date of conception in wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Weak coupling between energetic status and the phenology of reproduction accounts for the increasing discrepancy between the phenology of forage (energy supply) and the phenology of reproduction (energy demand) observed across the last 2-4 decades in two populations of this species. The results emphasise that phenological plasticity is not a passive response to changes in energy supply but derives from the way in which environmental factors interact with the core control mechanisms that govern timing. Central in this respect is integration, within the rheostatic centres of the hypothalamus, of information on nutritional status with the circannual life-history calendar.

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Different proxies, different stories? Imperfect correlations and different determinants of fitness in bighorn sheep

Measuring individual fitness empirically is required to assess selective pressures and predicts evolutionary changes in nature. There is, however, little consensus on how fitness should be empirically estimated. As fitness proxies vary in their underlying assumptions, their relative sensitivity to individual, environmental, and demographic factors may also vary. Here, using a long-term study, we aimed at identifying the determinants of individual fitness in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using seven fitness proxies. Specifically, we compared four-lifetime fitness proxies: lifetime breeding success, lifetime reproductive success, individual growth rate, individual contribution to population growth, and three multi-generational proxies: number of granddaughters, individual descendance in the next generation, and relative genetic contribution to the next generation. We found that all proxies were positively correlated, but the magnitude of the correlations varied substantially. Longevity was the main determinant of most fitness proxies. Individual fitness calculated over more than one generation was also affected by population density and growth rate. Because they are affected by contrasting factors, our study suggests that different fitness proxies should not be used interchangeably as they may convey different information about selective pressures and lead to divergent evolutionary predictions. Uncovering the mechanisms underlying variation in individual fitness and improving our ability to predict evolutionary change might require the use of several, rather than one, the proxy of individual fitness.

Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.

Reproductive characteristics of Japanese monkeys on Shimokita Peninsula, Japan, the northernmost habitat of wild primates in the world

The Shimokita Peninsula in Aomori Prefecture, Japan, which is inhabited by Japanese monkeys (Macaca fuscata), is the northernmost habitat for wild primates in the world. This study was the first to determine the conception dates of specific individuals and estimate the pregnancy rate of wild populations in this region. The pregnancy rate of animals aged 5 years or more at delivery was estimated to be 40.9% (27/66). Conception dates of each fetus were also estimated using a regression line of Pig-tail monkeys (Macaca nemestrina), which are taxonomically related to Japanese monkeys and have a similar physique. The conception dates were distributed across 90 days between September 24th and December 23rd, with a mean conception date of November 4th (SD=22.3 days, n=53). Using these findings, the mean birth date was estimated as April 25th, more than two weeks earlier than the mean birth date in previous research determined using direct observations carried out over the past 20 years ago. Global warming due to climate change is thought to be one of the main causes of this difference.

Consistent within-individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36-year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within- versus between-individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within-individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population-level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no "IxE" interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within-individual plasticity to population-level responses to climate change.