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Mao J, Meng F, Song Y, Li D, Ji Q, Hong Y, Lin J, Cai P. Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model. INSECTS 2024; 15:417. [PMID: 38921132 PMCID: PMC11203975 DOI: 10.3390/insects15060417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2024] [Revised: 05/10/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024]
Abstract
The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianxiang Mao
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
| | - Fanhua Meng
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
- College of Plant Science and Technology, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Yunzhe Song
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
| | - Dongliang Li
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
- College of Resources and Environment, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
| | - Qinge Ji
- Biological Control Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China;
| | - Yongcong Hong
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
| | - Jia Lin
- Biological Control Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China;
| | - Pumo Cai
- College of Tea and Food Science, Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, China; (J.M.); (F.M.); (Y.S.); (D.L.); (Y.H.)
- Biological Control Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China;
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Guiquan S, Jiali F, Shuai G, Wenya H, Xiangkun K, Sheng Z, Yueling Z, Xuelian J. Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China. BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 2023; 23:592. [PMID: 38008724 PMCID: PMC10680213 DOI: 10.1186/s12870-023-04574-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. RESULTS January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations. CONCLUSIONS The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Song Guiquan
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Feng Jiali
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Gong Shuai
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Hao Wenya
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Kong Xiangkun
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Sheng
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Yueling
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Jiang Xuelian
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China.
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Jiang X, Liu WJ, Zhu YZ, Cao YT, Yang XM, Geng Y, Zhang FJ, Sun RQ, Jia RW, Yan CL, Zhang YY, Li ZH. Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:3561. [PMID: 37896023 PMCID: PMC10610284 DOI: 10.3390/plants12203561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 10/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/12/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people's attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae's distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above -5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today's suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Zhong-Hu Li
- Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China; (X.J.); (W.-J.L.); (Y.-T.C.); (X.-M.Y.); (Y.G.); (F.-J.Z.); (R.-Q.S.)
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Ariza-Salamanca AJ, Navarro-Cerrillo RM, Quero-Pérez JL, Gallardo-Armas B, Crozier J, Stirling C, de Sousa K, González-Moreno P. Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa. Sci Rep 2023; 13:10033. [PMID: 37340020 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-37180-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Jesús Ariza-Salamanca
- Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta. IV, Km. 396, 14071, Córdoba, Spain.
| | - Rafael M Navarro-Cerrillo
- Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta. IV, Km. 396, 14071, Córdoba, Spain
| | - José L Quero-Pérez
- Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta. IV, Km. 396, 14071, Córdoba, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Kauê de Sousa
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, 2322, Hamar, Norway
- Digital Inclusion, Bioversity International, Montpellier, France
| | - Pablo González-Moreno
- Department of Forest Engineering, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Silviculture and Global Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta. IV, Km. 396, 14071, Córdoba, Spain
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Damaneh JM, Ahmadi J, Rahmanian S, Sadeghi SMM, Nasiri V, Borz SA. Prediction of wild pistachio ecological niche using machine learning models. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Long-Whiskered Owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru. Animals (Basel) 2022; 12:ani12141794. [PMID: 35883341 PMCID: PMC9312142 DOI: 10.3390/ani12141794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary The long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) is threatened by human activities and is currently listed as vulnerable by the IUCN. Here, we geo-referenced long-whiskered owlet records, identified key environmental variables affecting their distribution, and predicted their current and future distribution (2050 and 2070) in the Amazonas and San Martin areas of northwestern Peru. Under current conditions, areas with “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability for the distribution of X. loweryi cover about 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability areas showed profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Importantly, the natural protected areas in Amazonas and San Martin, both in current and in the future conditions, do not cover most of the pivotal habitats for X. loweryi. Furthermore, it was evident that the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities will lead to further habitat loss for this species. Therefore, to effectively conserve this species over time, it is strongly recommended that areas with “high” (and even “moderate”) probability and the main ecosystems that this species inhabits be designated as priority areas for research and conservation (including in natural protected areas). Abstract The IUCN has listed the long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) as vulnerable due to the presence of few geographic records, its restricted range, and anthropogenic threats. Its natural history and ecology are largely unknown, and its distribution is widely debated; therefore, there is an urgent need for the real-time conservation of X. loweryi. In this study, 66 geo-referenced records of X. loweryi, 18 environmental variables, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) have been used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of X. loweryi in the Amazonas and San Martin regions of northwestern Peru. In fact, under current conditions, areas of “high”, “moderate”, and “low” potential habitat suitability cover 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability areas present profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Based on the environmental variables, this species mostly inhabits areas with a forest fraction with presence of trees with an emergent tree canopy of ~10–30 metres and depends on Yunga montane forest habitats with high humidity but it is not dependent on bare cover area, crops, or grasslands. Nevertheless, most of the current and future distribution areas are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas and San Martin. Additionally, the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to further losses of this species habitat. Therefore, from the management point of view, corrective and preventive actions will help to preserve this species over time.
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Gull E. Fareen A, Mahmood T, Bodlah I, Rashid A, Khalid A, Mahmood S. Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262451. [PMID: 35045121 PMCID: PMC8769289 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 12/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change has been discussed as to exert shifts in geographical range of plants, animals or insect species by increasing, reducing or shifting its appropriate climatic habitat. Globally, Pakistan has been ranked at 5th position on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2020. Climate change has resulted in the losses of biodiversity and alteration in ecosystem as a result of depletion of natural habitats of species in Pakistan as well as in the world. Ants have been regarded as indicators of environmental change and ecosystem processes. Brachyponera nigrita (Emery, 1895) was reported for the first time from Pakistan (Pothwar region). Objective of our studies was to model geographic distribution of newly recorded ant species, B. nigrita based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050s using maximum entropy model (Maxent) in Pakistan. In modeling procedure, 21occurrence records and 8 variables namely Bio4 (Temperature seasonality), Bio8 (Mean temperature of wettest quarter), Bio10 (Mean temperature of warmest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio13 (Precipitation of wettest month), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality), Bio17 (Precipitation of driest quarter) and Bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) were used to determine the current and future distributions. Performance of the model was evaluated using AUC (area under curves) values, partial ROC, omission rates (E = 5%) and AICc (Model complexity).The results showed the average AUC value of the model was 0.930, which indicated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. The jackknife test also showed that Bio4, Bio18, Bio17 and Bio15 contributed 98% for the prediction of potential distribution of the species as compared to all other variables. Maxent results indicated that distribution area of B. nigrita under future predicted bioclimatics 2050 (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) would be increased in various localities of Pakistan as compared to its current distribution. In Pothwar region, moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of this species would increase by 505.932321km2and 572.118421km2as compared to current distribution under 2050 (RCP 4.5), while under 2050 (RCP 8.5), there would be an increase of 6427.2576km2and 3765.140493km2 respectively in moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of B. nigrita. This species was associated with termites, collembolans and larval stages of different insects. White eggs, creamy white pupae and many workers of this species were observed in a variety of habitats. Unknown nesting ecology, species identification characters supported with micrographs has been given which will help researchers for further ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ammara Gull E. Fareen
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
- * E-mail:
| | - Tariq Mahmood
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Narowal, Narowal, Pakistan
| | - Imran Bodlah
- Insect Biodiversity and Conservation Group, Department of Entomology, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Audil Rashid
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
- Department of Botany, University of Gujrat, Gujrat, Pakistan
| | - Azeem Khalid
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Shahid Mahmood
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
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Kong F, Tang L, He H, Yang F, Tao J, Wang W. Assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of Osmanthus fragrans using Maxent. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:34655-34663. [PMID: 33655479 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-13121-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2020] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Models that evaluate the potential geographic distribution of species can be used with a variety of important applications in conservation biology. Osmanthus fragrans has high ornamental, culinary, and medicinal value, and is widely used in landscaping. However, its preferred habitat and the environmental factors that determine its distribution remain largely unknown; the environmental factors that shape its suitability also require analysis. Based on 89 occurrence records and 30 environmental variables, this study constructed Maxent models for current as well as future appropriate habitats for O. fragrans. The results indicate that UV-B seasonality (19.1%), precipitation seasonality (18.8%), annual temperature range (13.1%), and mean diurnal temperature range (12.5%) were the most important factors used for interpreting the environmental demands for this species. Highly appropriate habitats for O. fragrans were mainly distributed in southwestern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, northern Guangdong, Guangxi, southern Hunan, southern Hubei, Sichuan, and Taiwan. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial extent of the area of suitable distribution will decrease, and the distribution center of O. fragrans will shift to the southwest. The results of this study will help land managers to avoid blindly introducing this species into inappropriate habitat while improving O. fragrans yield and quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fen Kong
- Suzhou Industrial Park Gardens, Suzhou, 215000, Republic of China
- Institute of Fruit and Floriculture Research, Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 730070, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Ling Tang
- Institute of Fruit and Floriculture Research, Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 730070, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Huan He
- Institute of Fruit and Floriculture Research, Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 730070, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Fuxia Yang
- Institute of Fruit and Floriculture Research, Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 730070, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Tao
- College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, 225009, Yangzhou, People's Republic of China.
| | - Weicheng Wang
- Institute of Fruit and Floriculture Research, Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 730070, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China.
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Zhang K, Liu H, Pan H, Shi W, Zhao Y, Li S, Liu J, Tao J. Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:4828-4837. [PMID: 32551064 PMCID: PMC7297781 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2019] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast-growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keliang Zhang
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Huina Liu
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Haolei Pan
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Wenhao Shi
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Yi Zhao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Silei Li
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Junchi Liu
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
| | - Jun Tao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and PhysiologyCollege of Horticulture and Plant ProtectionYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
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Species Distribution Modeling of Sassafras Tzumu and Implications for Forest Management. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12104132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Sassafras tzumu (Chinese sassafras) is an economically and ecologically important deciduous tree species. Over the past few decades, increasing market demands and unprecedented human activity in its natural habitat have created new threats to this species. Nonetheless, the distribution of its habitat and the crucial environmental parameters that determine the habitat suitability remain largely unclear. The present study modeled the current and future geographical distribution of S. tzumu by maximum entropy (MAXENT) and genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP). The value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa, and true skill statistic (TSS) of MAXENT was significantly higher than that of GARP, indicating that MAXENT performed better. Temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was suitable for growth of S. tzumu. Relative humidity (26.2% of permutation importance), average temperature during the driest quarter (16.6%), annual precipitation (12.6%), and mean diurnal temperature range (10.3%) were identified as the primary factors that accounted for the present distribution of S. tzumu in China. Under the climate change scenario, both algorithms predicted that range of suitable habitat will expand geographically to northwest. Our results may be adopted for guiding the preservation of S. tzumu through identifying the habitats susceptible to climate change.
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Remote Sensing to Detect Nests of the Leaf-Cutting Ant Atta sexdens (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Teak Plantations. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11141641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Leaf-cutting ants of the genus Atta are an important insect pest in forest plantations in many countries of South America. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential for using Landsat-8 images, with medium spatial resolution and distributed free of charge, to detect leaf-cutting ant nests in Tectona grandis plantations in Brazil, using partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). The regression model adjusted by PLS-DA selected three principal components with a cross-validation error of 0.275 to map and predict the presence of leaf-cutting ant nests in these plantations. The most important bands and vegetation indices were selected using the main variables in the projection (VIP) and predicted pixels with the presence or absence of leaf-cutting ant nests with an accuracy of 72.3% on an independent validation data set. The study indicates that Landsat-8 OLI images have the potential to detect and map leaf-cutting ant nests in T. grandis plantations.
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Arthur FH, Morrison WR, Morey AC. Modeling the potential range expansion of larger grain borer, Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae). Sci Rep 2019; 9:6862. [PMID: 31053737 PMCID: PMC6499817 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-42974-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2018] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), is a beetle that is a member of a family that is primarily comprised of wood-boring insects, including forest insect pests. It is native to Mexico and Central America, where it has adapted to become a pest of stored maize. It was accidentally introduced into Africa in late 1970s, where it quickly spread throughout the sub-Saharan region, perhaps aided by adaptation to alternate hosts and the ability to persist in non-agricultural habitats. We used the correlative modelling algorithm, MaxEnt, to identify global areas of potential high suitability based on the climate locations with documented populations. Predictions using a model trained in Mexico + Central America showed potential high climatic suitability extending north into the southern United States and southward into South America, including parts of Argentina, but predictions using a model built from African occurrences did not include those areas as highly suitable. However, there was general agreement in both models that large areas of the tropics in the Western Hemisphere and in Asia have climatic conditions that could support P. truncatus if it were to become established. The models also showed consistency in capturing potential suitability at sites not used to build a given model. Results can be used as an initial guide to establish surveillance programs to monitor for this insect in high risk areas where it is not currently found, and to proactively mitigate the biosecurity risk from P. truncatus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank H Arthur
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Center for Grain and Animal Health Research, 1515 College Ave., Manhattan, KS, 66502, USA.
| | - William R Morrison
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Center for Grain and Animal Health Research, 1515 College Ave., Manhattan, KS, 66502, USA
| | - Amy C Morey
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, 1980 Folwell Ave., 219 Hodson Hall, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
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Predicting impacts of climate variability on habitats of Hippophae salicifolia (D. Don) (Seabuckthorn) in Central Himalayas: Future challenges. ECOL INFORM 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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14
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Yasodha R, Vasudeva R, Balakrishnan S, Sakthi AR, Abel N, Binai N, Rajashekar B, Bachpai VKW, Pillai C, Dev SA. Draft genome of a high value tropical timber tree, Teak (Tectona grandis L. f): insights into SSR diversity, phylogeny and conservation. DNA Res 2018; 25:409-419. [PMID: 29800113 PMCID: PMC6105116 DOI: 10.1093/dnares/dsy013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2017] [Accepted: 04/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is one of the precious bench mark tropical hardwood having qualities of durability, strength and visual pleasantries. Natural teak populations harbour a variety of characteristics that determine their economic, ecological and environmental importance. Sequencing of whole nuclear genome of teak provides a platform for functional analyses and development of genomic tools in applied tree improvement. A draft genome of 317 Mb was assembled at 151× coverage and annotated 36, 172 protein-coding genes. Approximately about 11.18% of the genome was repetitive. Microsatellites or simple sequence repeats (SSRs) are undoubtedly the most informative markers in genotyping, genetics and applied breeding applications. We generated 182,712 SSRs at the whole genome level, of which, 170,574 perfect SSRs were found; 16,252 perfect SSRs showed in silico polymorphisms across six genotypes suggesting their promising use in genetic conservation and tree improvement programmes. Genomic SSR markers developed in this study have high potential in advancing conservation and management of teak genetic resources. Phylogenetic studies confirmed the taxonomic position of the genus Tectona within the family Lamiaceae. Interestingly, estimation of divergence time inferred that the Miocene origin of the Tectona genus to be around 21.4508 million years ago.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramasamy Yasodha
- Division of Plant Biotechnology, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, R.S. Puram, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Ramesh Vasudeva
- Forest Genetics and Biotechnology Division, Kerala Forest Research Institute, Peechi, Thrissur, Kerala, India
| | - Swathi Balakrishnan
- Department of Forest Biology and Tree Improvement, University of Agricultural Sciences, College of Forestry, Sirsi, Uttara Kannada, Karnataka, India
| | - Ambothi Rathnasamy Sakthi
- Division of Plant Biotechnology, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, R.S. Puram, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Nicodemus Abel
- Division of Plant Biotechnology, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, R.S. Puram, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Nagarajan Binai
- Division of Plant Biotechnology, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, R.S. Puram, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Balaji Rajashekar
- Genotypic Technology Private Limited, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.,Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Estonia
| | - Vijay Kumar Waman Bachpai
- Division of Plant Biotechnology, Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, R.S. Puram, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Chandrasekhara Pillai
- Department of Forest Biology and Tree Improvement, University of Agricultural Sciences, College of Forestry, Sirsi, Uttara Kannada, Karnataka, India
| | - Suma Arun Dev
- Department of Forest Biology and Tree Improvement, University of Agricultural Sciences, College of Forestry, Sirsi, Uttara Kannada, Karnataka, India
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Predicting Shifts in the Suitable Climatic Distribution of Walnut (Juglans regia L.) in China: Maximum Entropy Model Paves the Way to Forest Management. FORESTS 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/f9030103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Cultivation of woody oil plants in environmentally suitable habitats is a successful ecological solution for oil development and forest management. In this study, we predicted the influences of future climate change on the potentially suitable climatic distribution of an important woody oil plant species (walnut; Juglans regia L.) in China based on given climate change scenarios and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The MaxEnt model showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual precipitation were the most important determinant variables limiting the geographical distribution of J. regia. We have found that the current suitable environmental habitat of J. regia is mainly distributed in central and southwestern China. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that global warming in the coming half-century may lead to an increase in the area size of environmentally suitable habitats for J. regia in China, indicating more lands available for artificial cultivation and oil production. However, those suitable habitat gains may be practically inaccessible due to over-harvest and urban development, and effective management strategies are urgently needed to establish those forests. This research will provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, cultivation management, and sustainable utilization of J. regia resources to face the challenge of global climate change.
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