Futility and the care of surgical patients: ethical dilemmas

The management of complicated colorectal cancer in older patients in a global perspective after COVID-19: the CO-OLDER WSES project

BACKGROUND

Colorectal (CRC) cancer is becoming a disease of the elderly. Ageing is the most significant risk factor for presenting CRC. Early diagnosis of CRC and management is the best way in achieving good outcomes and longer survival but patients aged ≥75 years are usually not screened for CRC. This group of patients is often required to be managed when they are symptomatic in the emergency setting with high morbidity and mortality rates. Our main aim is to provide clinical data about the management of elderly patients presenting complicated colorectal cancer who required emergency surgical management to improve their care.

METHODS

The management of complicated COlorectal cancer in OLDER patients (CO-OLDER; ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT05788224; evaluated by the local ethical committee CPP EST III-France with the national number 2023-A01094-41) in the emergency setting project provides carrying out an observational multicenter international cohort study aimed to collect data about patients aged ≥75 years to assess modifiable risk factors for negative outcomes and mortality correlated to the emergency surgical management of this group of patients at risk admitted with a complicated (obstructed and perforated) CRC. The CO-OLDER protocol was approved by Institutional Review Board and released. Each CO-OLDER collaborator is asked to enroll ≥25 patients over a study period from 1st January 2018 to 30th October 2023. Data will be analyzed comparing two periods of study: before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample size of 240 prospectively enrolled patients with obstructed colorectal cancer in a 5-month period was calculated. The secured database for entering anonymized data will be available for the period necessary to achieve the highest possible participation.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty hospitals asked to be a CO-OLDER collaborator, with 36 potentially involved countries over the world.

CONCLUSIONS

The CO-OLDER project aims to improve the management of elderly people presenting with a complicated colorectal cancer in the emergency setting. Our observational global study can provide valuable data on the effectiveness of different management strategies in improving primary assessment, management and outcomes for elderly patients with obstructed or perforated colorectal cancer in the emergency setting, guiding clinical decision-making. This information can help healthcare providers make informed decisions about the best course of action for these patients.

Palliative Emergency General Surgery

Acute care surgeons encounter patients experiencing surgical emergencies related to advanced malignancy, catastrophic vascular events, or associated with multisystem organ failure. The acute nature is a factor in establishing a relationship between surgeon, patient, and family. Surgeons must use effective communication skills, empathy, and a knowledge of legal and ethical foundations. Training in palliative care principles is limited in many medical school and residency curricula. We offer examples of clinical situations facing acute care surgeons and discuss evidence-based recommendations to facilitate successful treatment and outcomes.

Predictive role of radiomics features extracted from preoperative cross-sectional imaging of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in detecting lymph node metastasis: a systemic review and meta-analysis

Lymph node metastases are associated with poor clinical outcomes in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In preoperative imaging, conventional diagnostic modalities do not provide the desired accuracy in diagnosing lymph node metastasis. The current review aims to determine the pooled diagnostic profile of studies examining the role of radiomics features in detecting lymph node metastasis in PDAC. PubMed, Google Scholar, and Embase databases were searched for relevant articles. The quality of the studies was examined using the Radiomics Quality Score and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tools. Pooled results for sensitivity, specificity, likelihood, and odds ratios with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model (DerSimonian-Liard method). No significant publication bias was detected among the studies included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity of the validation datasets included in the study was 77.4% (72.7%, 81.5%) and pooled specificity was 72.4% (63.8, 79.6%). The diagnostic odds ratio of the validation datasets was 9.6 (6.0, 15.2). No statistically significant heterogeneity was detected for sensitivity and odds ratio (P values of 0.3 and 0.08, respectively). However, there was significant heterogeneity concerning specificity (P = 0.003). The pretest probability of having lymph node metastasis in the pooled databases was 52% and a positive post-test probability was 76% after the radiomics features were used, showing a net benefit of 24%. Classifiers trained on radiomics features extracted from preoperative images can improve the sensitivity and specificity of conventional cross-sectional imaging in detecting lymph node metastasis in PDAC.

Recognizing and Maximizing the Nexus of Perioperative Medicine and Narrative Medicine

Perioperative medicine remains an evolving, interdisciplinary subspecialty, which encompasses the unique perspectives and incorporates the respective vital expertise of numerous stakeholders. This integrated model of perioperative medicine and care has a wide-ranging set of clinical, strategic, and operational goals. Among these various programmatic goals, a subset of 4, specific, interdependent goals include (1) enhancing patient-centered care, (2) embracing shared decision-making, (3) optimizing health literacy, and (4) avoiding futile surgery. Achieving and sustaining this subset of 4 goals requires continued innovative approaches to perioperative care. The burgeoning field of narrative medicine represents 1 such innovative approach to perioperative care. Narrative medicine is considered the most prominent recent development in the medical humanities. Its central tenet is that attention to narrative-in the form of the patient's story, the clinician's story, or a story constructed together by the patient and clinician-is essential for optimal patient care. If we can view the health care experience through the patient's eyes, we will become more responsive to patients' needs and, thereby, better clinicians. There is a potential clinical nexus between the perioperative medicine practice and narrative medicine skills, which, if capitalized, can maximize perioperative patient care. There are a number of untapped educational and research opportunities in this fruitful nexus between perioperative medicine and narrative medicine.

Surgical mortality in patients in extremis: futility in emergency abdominal surgery

BACKGROUND

The number of older patients with multiple comorbidities in the emergency service is increasingly frequent, which implies the risk of incurring in futile surgical interventions. Some interventions generate false expectations of survival or quality of life in patients and families and represent a negligible therapeutic benefit in patients whose chances of survival are minimal. In order to address this dilemma, we describe mortality in a cohort of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy with a risk ≥ 75% per the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was designed to analyze postoperative mortality and factors associated with postoperative mortality in a cohort of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy between January 2018 and December 2021 in a high-complexity hospital who had a mortality risk ≥ 75% per the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.

RESULTS

A total of 890 emergency laparotomies were performed during the study period, and 50 patients were included for the analysis. Patient median age was 82.5 (IQR: 18.25) years old and 33 (66.00%) were male. The most frequent diagnoses were mesenteric ischemia 21 (42%) and secondary peritonitis 18 (36%). Mortality in the series was 92%. Twenty-four (54.34%) died within the first 24 h of the postoperative period; 11 (23.91%) within 72 h and 10 (21.73%) within 30 days. APACHE II and SOFA scores were statistically significantly higher in patients who died.

CONCLUSIONS

All available tools should be used to make decisions, with the most reliable and objective information possible, and be particularly vigilant in patients at extreme risk (mortality risk greater than 75% according to ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator) to avoid futility and its consequences. The available information should be shared with the patient, the family, or their guardians through an assertive and empathetic communication strategy. It is necessary to insist on a culture of surgical ethics based on reflection and continuous improvement in patient care and to know how to accompany them in order to have a proper death.

Futility considerations in surgical ethics

The topic of futility has been intensely debated in bioethical discourse. Surgical futility encompasses considerations across a continuum of care, from decision-making during initial triage, to the choice to operate or refrain from operating on the critically ill, to withdrawal of life-supporting care. Determinations over futility may result in discord between providers and patients or their families, who might insist that treatment be provided at all costs to sustain life. In this manuscript, we will explore some of the possible sources for and manifestations of these disputes, and describe approaches by which to resolve them. Part I will briefly address some of the reasons that families ask for life-sustaining measures against medical advice in the surgical setting. These include variable determinations of both the quality of life and the inherent value of life (stemming from religious, cultural, and personal beliefs). Part II will detail some general instances in which physicians and surgeons can override requests to provide futile treatment, namely: instances of resource scarcity, interventions which carry a high probability of harm, and those that carry significant moral distress. To conclude, Part III will provide concrete guidelines for navigating futility, making an argument for individual case-based communication models in surgical decision-making.

Factors Potential Patients Deem Important for Decision-Making in High-Risk Surgical Scenarios

BACKGROUND

Surgical futility and shared decision-making to proceed with high-risk surgery are challenging for patients and surgeons alike. It is unknown which factors contribute to a patient's decision to undergo high-risk and potentially futile surgery. The clinical perspective, founded in statistical probabilities of survival, could be misaligned with a patient's determination of worthwhile surgery. This study assesses factors most important to patients in pursuing high-risk surgery.

STUDY DESIGN

Via anonymous survey, lay participants recruited through Amazon's Mturk were presented high-risk scenarios necessitating emergency surgery. They rated factors (objective risk and quality-of-life domains) in surgical decision-making (0 = not at all, 4 = extremely) and made the decision to pursue surgery based on clinical scenarios. Repeated observations were accounted for via a generalized mixed-effects model and estimated effects of respondent characteristics, scenario factors, and likelihood to recommend surgery.

RESULTS

Two hundred thirty-six participants completed the survey. Chance of survival to justify surgery averaged 69.3% (SD = 21.3), ranking as the highest determining factor in electing for surgery. Other factors were also considered important in electing for surgery, including the average number of days the patient lived if surgery were and were not completed, functional and pain status after surgery, family member approval, and surgery cost. Postoperative independence was associated with proceeding with surgery (p < 0.001). Recommendations by patient age was moderated by respondent age (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Patients highly value likelihood of survival and postoperative independence in shared decision-making for high-risk surgery. It is important to improve the understanding of surgical futility from a patient's perspective.

Outcomes of dialysis in neonates with anuric end-stage renal disease at birth: ethical considerations

INTRODUCTION

We present a case series of neonates with anuric ESRD undergoing renal replacement therapy (RRT) and discuss the associated ethical implications of RRT in this population.

METHODS

We reviewed patients who initiated RRT within 1 week of life due to anuric ESRD from 2009-2019 at a single tertiary center. Primary outcomes were receipt of renal transplant (RT), one-year survival, and overall survival.

RESULTS

Five patients met the inclusion criteria. Two patients received an RT. One-year survival was 80%, while overall survival was 60% with a median follow-up of 18 months. In the 2 still-living patients who have not undergone RT, they are ineligible, one due to recent malignancy and the other from acquired cardiovascular comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Patients with anuric ESRD requiring RRT undergo multiple treatment challenges with low RT and survival rates. These findings should be shared with families considering intervention for cases of severe renal disease diagnosed prenatally.

Colorectal Surgery in Critically Unwell Patients: A Multidisciplinary Approach

A proportion of patients require critical care support following elective or urgent colorectal procedures. Similarly, critically ill patients in intensive care units may also need colorectal surgery on occasions. This patient population is increasing in some jurisdictions given an aging population and increasing societal expectations. As such, this population often includes elderly, frail patients or patients with significant comorbidities. Careful stratification of operative risks including the need for prolonged intensive care support should be part of the consenting process. In high-risk patients, especially in setting of unplanned surgery, treatment goals should be clearly defined, and appropriate ceiling of care should be established to minimize care that is not in the best interest of the patient. In this article we describe approaches to critically unwell patients requiring colorectal surgery and how a multidisciplinary approach with proactive intensive care involvement can help achieve the best outcomes for these patients.

Critical Analysis of the Causes of In-Hospital Mortality following Colorectal Resection: A Queensland Audit of Surgical Mortality (QASM) Registry Study

Background

Colorectal resection is a major gastrointestinal operation. Improvements in peri-operative care has led to improved outcomes; however, mortalities still occur. Using data from the Queensland Audit of Surgical Mortality (QASM), this study examines the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who died in hospital following colorectal resection, and also reports the primary cause of death in this population.

Methods

Patients who died in hospital following colorectal resection in Queensland between January 2010 and December 2020 were identified from the QASM database.

Results

There were 755 patients who died in the 10 year study period. Pre-operatively, the risk of death as subjectively determined by operating surgeons was ‘considerable’ in 397 cases (53.0%) and ‘expected’ in 90 cases (12.0%). The patients had a mean of 2.7 (±1.5) co-morbidities, and a mean American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score of 3.6 (±0.8). Operations were categorised as emergency in 579 patients (77.2%), with 637 patients (85.0%) requiring post-operative Intensive Care Unit (ICU) support. The primary cause of death was related to a surgical cause in 395 patients (52.7%) and to a medical cause in 355 patients (47.3%). The primary causes of death were advanced surgical pathology (n=292, 38.9%), complications from surgery (n=103, 13.7%), complications arising from pre-existing medical co-morbidity (n=282, 37.6%) or new medical complications unrelated to pre-existing conditions (n=73, 9.7%).

Conclusions

Patients who died had significant co-morbidities and often presented emergently with an advanced surgical pathology. Surgical and medical causes of death both contributed equally to the mortality burden.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00268-022-06534-9.

The false dichotomy of surgical futility in the emergency laparotomy setting: scoping review

BACKGROUND

Futile is defined as 'the fact of having no effect or of achieving nothing'. Futility in medicine has been defined through seven guiding principles, which in the context of emergency surgery, have been relatively unexplored. This scoping review aimed to identify key concepts around surgical futility as it relates to emergency laparotomy.

METHODS

Using the Arksey and O'Malley framework, a scoping review was conducted. A search of the Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, MEDLINE, and Embase was performed up until 1 November 2021 to identify literature relevant to the topic of futility in emergency laparotomy.

RESULTS

Three cohort studies were included in the analysis. A total of 105 157 patients were included, with 1114 patients reported as futile. All studies were recent (2019 to 2020) and focused on the principle of quantitative futility (assessment of the probability of death after surgery) within a timeline after surgery: two defining futility as death within 48 hours of surgery and one as death within 72 hours. In all cases this was derived from a survival histogram. Predictors of defined futile procedures included age, level of independence prior to admission, surgical pathology, serum creatinine, arterial lactate, and pH.

CONCLUSION

There remains a paucity of research defining, exploring, and analysing futile surgery in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. With limited published work focusing on quantitative futility and the binary outcome of death, research is urgently needed to explore all principles of futility, including the wishes of patients and their families.

Narrative Medicine: Perioperative Opportunities and Applicable Health Services Research Methods

Narrative medicine is a humanities-based discipline that posits that attention to the patient narrative and the collaborative formation of a narrative between the patient and provider is essential for the provision of health care. In this Special Article, we review the basic theoretical constructs of the narrative medicine discipline and apply them to the perioperative setting. We frame our discussion around the 4 primary goals of the current iteration of the perioperative surgical home: enhancing patient-centered care, embracing shared decision making, optimizing health literacy, and avoiding futile surgery. We then examine the importance of incorporating narrative medicine into medical education and residency training and evaluate the literature on such narrative medicine didactics. Finally, we discuss applying health services research, specifically qualitative and mixed methods, in the rigorous evaluation of the efficacy and impact of narrative medicine clinical programs and medical education curricula.

A preoperative nomogram for predicting long-term survival after resection of large hepatocellular carcinoma (>10 cm)

BACKGROUND

It has previously been demonstrated that a fraction of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) > 10 cm can benefit from liver resection. However, there is still a lack of effective decision-making tools to inform intervention in these patients.

METHODS

We analysed a comprehensive set of clinical data from 234 patients who underwent liver resection for HCC >10 cm at the National Cancer Institute of Peru between 1990 and 2015, monitored their survival, and constructed a nomogram to predict the surgical outcome based on preoperative variables.

RESULTS

We identified cirrhosis, multifocality, macroscopic vascular invasion, and spontaneous tumour rupture as independent predictors of survival and integrated them into a nomogram model. The nomogram's ability to forecast survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was subsequently confirmed with high concordance using an internal validation. Through applying this nomogram, we stratified three groups of patients with different survival probabilities.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a preoperative nomogram to predict long-term survival in patients with HCC >10 cm. This nomogram is useful in determining whether a patient with large HCC might truly benefit from liver resection, which is paramount in low- and middle-income countries where HCC is often diagnosed at advanced stages.

Considering Futility of Care Decisions in Neurosurgical Practice

Neurosurgeons commonly encounter futility of care decisions in their practice. Are these decisions being made with adequate consideration? What is the preparation of neurosurgical trainees for making these decisions? The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic with its extreme pressure on resources and, in particular, intensive care unit beds, has prompted many health care providers including neurosurgeons to consider more fully the potentially futile nature of some treatments and how we might better manage limited resources for the future. We review the concept of futility in neurosurgery and suggest potential solutions to the multiple challenges that arise.

Development and validation of an individualized prediction calculator of postoperative mortality within 6 months after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: an international multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based decision-making is critical to optimize the benefits and mitigate futility associated with surgery for patients with malignancies. Untreated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a median survival of only 6 months. The objective was to develop and validate an individualized patient-specific tool to predict preoperatively the benefit of surgery to provide a survival benefit of at least 6 months following resection.

METHODS

Using an international multicenter database, patients who underwent curative-intent liver resection for HCC from 2008 to 2017 were identified. Using random assignment, two-thirds of patients were assigned to a training cohort with the remaining one-third assigned to the validation cohort. Independent predictors of postoperative death within 6 months after surgery for HCC were identified and used to construct a nomogram model with a corresponding online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the calculator was assessed using C-index and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Independent factors associated with death within 6 months of surgery included age, Child-Pugh grading, portal hypertension, alpha-fetoprotein level, tumor rupture, tumor size, tumor number and gross vascular invasion. A nomogram that incorporated these factors demonstrated excellent calibration and good performance in both the training and validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.802 and 0.798). The nomogram also performed better than four other commonly-used HCC staging systems (C-indexes: 0.800 vs. 0.542-0.748).

CONCLUSIONS

An easy-to-use online prediction calculator was able to identify patients at highest risk of death within 6 months of surgery for HCC. The proposed online calculator may help guide surgical decision-making to avoid futile surgery for patients with HCC.

Palliative Care in Emergency General Surgery Patients: Reduced Inpatient Mortality And Increased Discharge to Hospice

BACKGROUND

Admissions due to emergency general surgery (EGS) are on the rise, and patients who undergo emergency surgery are at increased risk of mortality. We hypothesized that utilization of palliative care and discharge to hospice in the EGS population have increased over time and that this is associated with a decrease in inpatient mortality.

METHODS

Using the 2002-2011 nationwide inpatient sample and American Association for the Surgery of Trauma-defined EGS diagnosis codes, we identified patients ≥18 years old with an EGS admission. Demographics, hospitalization characteristics, mortality, use of palliative care services, and discharge to hospice were queried. All Patient Refined-Diagnosis Related Group risk of mortality was used to categorize those with an extreme likelihood of dying (ELD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the association between palliative care consult and discharge to hospice.

RESULTS

Of the included patients, 0.3% received palliative care and 0.2% were discharged to hospice. Over time, rates of palliative care and hospice discharge increased while inpatient mortality decreased. In the 4% of patients with ELD, 3% received palliative care, 5% were transitioned to hospice care, and 22% suffered inpatient mortality. Controlling for patient characteristics, utilization of palliative care services was associated with increased odds of discharge to hospice compared to inpatient mortality (OR = 1.78 all patients and OR = 2.04 for ELD).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the known increased risks associated with emergency surgical diagnoses, palliative care services remain infrequently utilized in the EGS population. This may be an opportunity for lessening suffering, improving patient-concordant care and outcomes, and reducing nonbeneficial and unwanted care.

Liver Transplantation

The field of liver transplantation has changed since the MELD scoring system became the most widely used donor allocation tool. Due to the MELD-based allocation system, sicker patients with higher MELD scores are being transplanted. Persistent organ donor shortages remain a challenging issue, and as a result, the wait-list mortality is a persistent problem for most of the regions. This chapter focuses on deceased donor and live donor liver transplantation in patients with complications of portal hypertension. Special attention will also be placed on donor-recipient matching, perioperative management of transplant patients, and the impact of hepatic hemodynamics on transplantation.

Going beyond "bad news": A surgical case report and systematic review of the literature surrounding futile care

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There is a paucity of literature surrounding futile care.

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There is no consensus definition of “futile care”.

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A conversation is needed to discuss training of surgeons to manage cases of futile care.

Introduction

Surgeons frequently deliver “bad news” to patients, but do they know how to address situations where further surgery is considered futile? Is there a clear definition of futile care in the literature? This paper explores these questions and seeks to start a conversation about how we can train future surgeons to deliver news of futile care.

Presentation of case

This paper describes how one surgical team handled a difficult case of futile care and provides an interview from the perspective of a surgical resident.

Discussion

The case report gives one example of how the news of futile care was delivered and how appropriate steps were taken to provide continued management of the patient and support to the family. A systematic review of the literature surrounding futile care reveals no consensus on how to define futile care within the medical community.

Conclusion

There is a paucity of information surrounding how surgeons should manage cases of futile care. The literature focuses on the physician-patient relationship and includes methods for delivering bad news, yet it fails to identify a consensus definition of futile care and does not provide guidelines that future surgeons can follow when they encounter these cases. With this paper we seek to open a discussion about how to define futile care and how to teach future surgeons best practices when managing these cases.

Predictors of Futile Liver Resection for Patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage B/C Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

There is little information concerning futile liver resection for patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B/C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish a predictive model of futile liver resection for patients with BCLC stage B/C HCC.

METHODS

The outcomes of 484 patients with BCLC stage B/C HCC who underwent liver resection at our centre between 2010 and 2016 were reviewed. Patients were randomised and divided 2:1 into training and validation sets. A novel risk-scoring model and prognostic nomogram were developed based on the results of multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven futile operations were observed. Multivariate analyses revealed tumour numbers > 3, Vp4 portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/ml independently associated with futile liver resection. A risk-scoring model based on the above-mentioned factors was developed (predictive risk score = 1 × (if AFP > 400 ng/ml) + 2 × (if tumour number > 3) + 3 × (if with Vp4 PVTT)). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.845, with a sensitivity of 60.0% and a specificity of 94.8%. A prognostic nomogram was also developed and achieved a C-index of 0.831. The validation studies optically supported these results.

CONCLUSION

A risk-scoring model and predictive nomogram for futile liver resection were developed in the present study. T`he BCLC stage B/C HCC patients with a high risk obtained no benefit from liver resection.

Hyperlactemia Predicts Surgical Mortality in Patients Presenting With Acute Stanford Type-A Aortic Dissection

OBJECTIVE

Inspired by the limited facility of the Penn classification, the authors aimed to determine a rapid and optimal preoperative assessment tool to predict surgical mortality after acute Stanford type-A aortic dissection (AAAD) repair.

DESIGN

Patients who underwent an attempted surgical repair of AAAD were determined using a de-identified single institution database. The charts of 144 patients were reviewed retrospectively for preoperative demographics and surrogates for disease severity and malperfusion. Bivariate analysis was used to determine significant (p≤0.05) predictors of in-hospital and 1-year mortality, the primary endpoints. Receiver operating characteristic curve generation was used to define optimal cut-off values for continuous predictors.

SETTING

Single center, level 1 trauma, university teaching hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 144 cardiac surgical patients with acute type-A aortic dissection presenting for surgical correction.

INTERVENTIONS

Surgical repair of aortic dissection with preoperative laboratory samples drawn before patient transfer to the operating room or immediately after arterial catheter placement intraoperatively.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 144 patients. In-hospital mortality was 9%, and the 1-year mortality rate was 17%. Variables that demonstrated a correlation with in-hospital mortality included an elevated serum lactic acid level (odds ratio [OR] 1.5 [1.3-1.9], p<0.001), a depressed ejection fraction (OR 0.91 [0.86-0.96], p = .001), effusion (OR 4.8 [1.02-22.5], p = 0.04), neurologic change (OR 5.3 [1.6-17.4], p = 0.006), severe aortic regurgitation (OR 8.2 [2.0-33.9], p = 0.006), and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (OR 6.8 [1.7-26.9], p = 0.01). Only an increased serum lactic acid level demonstrated a trend with 1-year mortality using univariate Cox regression (hazard ratio 1.1 [1.0-1.1], p = 0.006). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed optimal cut-off lactic acid levels of 6.0 mmol/L and 6.9 mmol/L for in-hospital and 1-year mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Lactic acidosis, ostensibly as a surrogate for systemic malperfusion, represents a novel, accurate, and easily obtainable preoperative predictor of short-term mortality after attempted AAAD repair. These data may improve identification of patients who would not benefit from surgery.

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair using an artificial neural network

OBJECTIVE

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) carries a high mortality rate, even with prompt transfer to a medical center. An artificial neural network (ANN) is a computational model that improves predictive ability through pattern recognition while continually adapting to new input data. The goal of this study was to effectively use ANN modeling to provide vascular surgeons a discriminant adjunct to assess the likelihood of in-hospital mortality on a pending rAAA admission using easily obtainable patient information from the field.

METHODS

Of 332 total patients from a single institution from 1998 to 2013 who had attempted rAAA repair, 125 were reviewed for preoperative factors associated with in-hospital mortality; 108 patients received an open operation, and 17 patients received endovascular repair. Five variables were found significant on multivariate analysis (P < .05), and four of these five (preoperative shock, loss of consciousness, cardiac arrest, and age) were modeled by multiple logistic regression and an ANN. These predictive models were compared against the Glasgow Aneurysm Score. All models were assessed by generation of receiver operating characteristic curves and actual vs predicted outcomes plots, with area under the curve and Pearson r(2) value as the primary measures of discriminant ability.

RESULTS

Of the 125 patients, 53 (42%) did not survive to discharge. Five preoperative factors were significant (P < .05) independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis: advanced age, renal disease, loss of consciousness, cardiac arrest, and shock, although renal disease was excluded from the models. The sequential accumulation of zero to four of these risk factors progressively increased overall mortality rate, from 11% to 16% to 44% to 76% to 89% (age ≥ 70 years considered a risk factor). Algorithms derived from multiple logistic regression, ANN, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score models generated area under the curve values of 0.85 ± 0.04, 0.88 ± 0.04 (training set), and 0.77 ± 0.06 and Pearson r(2) values of .36, .52 and .17, respectively. The ANN model represented the most discriminant of the three.

CONCLUSIONS

An ANN-based predictive model may represent a simple, useful, and highly discriminant adjunct to the vascular surgeon in accurately identifying those patients who may carry a high mortality risk from attempted repair of rAAA, using only easily definable preoperative variables. Although still requiring external validation, our model is available for demonstration at https://redcap.vanderbilt.edu/surveys/?s=NN97NM7DTK.

Hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma larger than 10 cm: preoperative risk stratification to prevent futile surgery

OBJECTIVES

Appropriate patient selection is important to achieving good outcomes and obviating futile surgery in patients with huge (≥10 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify independent predictors of futile outcomes, defined as death within 3 months of surgery or within 1 year from early recurrence following hepatectomy for huge HCC.

METHODS

The outcomes of 149 patients with huge HCCs who underwent resection during 1995-2012 were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify preoperative independent predictors of futility.

RESULTS

Independent predictors of 3-month mortality (18.1%) were: total bilirubin level >34 μmol/l [P = 0.0443; odds ratio (OR) 16.470]; platelet count of <150 000 cells/ml (P = 0.0098; OR 5.039), and the presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis (P = 0.0041; OR 5.138). The last of these was the sole independent predictor of 1-year recurrence-related mortality (17.2%). Rates of recurrence-related mortality at 3 months and 1 year were, respectively, 6.3% and 7.1% in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A disease, 12.5% and 14% in patients with BCLC stage B disease, and 37.8% (P = 0.0002) and 75% (P = 0.0002) in patients with BCLC stage C disease.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the present data, among patients submitted to hepatectomy for huge HCC, those with a high bilirubin level, low platelet count and portal vein thrombosis are at higher risk for futile surgery. The presence of portal vein tumour thrombosis should be regarded as a relative contraindication to surgery.