Early Prediction of Post-hepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients Undergoing Major Hepatectomy Using a PHLF Prognostic Nomogram

Realizing Textbook Outcomes Following Liver Resection for Hepatic Neoplasms with Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram

BACKGROUND

'Textbook Outcome' (TO) represents an effort to define a standardized, composite quality benchmark based on intraoperative and postoperative endpoints. This study aimed to assess the applicability of TO as an outcome measure following liver resection for hepatic neoplasms from a low- to middle-income economy and determine its impact on long-term survival. Based on identified perioperative predictors, we developed and validated a nomogram-based scoring and risk stratification system.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients undergoing curative resections for hepatic neoplasms between 2012 and 2023. Rates of TO were assessed over time and factors associated with achieving a TO were evaluated. Using stepwise regression, a prediction nomogram for achieving TO was established based on perioperative risk factors.

RESULTS

Of the 1018 consecutive patients who underwent liver resections, a TO was achieved in 64.9% (661/1018). The factor most responsible for not achieving TO was significant post-hepatectomy liver failure (22%). Realization of TO was independently associated with improved overall and disease-free survival. On logistic regression, American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 2 (p = 0.0002), perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (p = 0.011), major hepatectomy (p = 0.0006), blood loss >1500 mL (p = 0.007), and presence of lymphovascular emboli on pathology (p = 0.026) were associated with the non-realization of TO. These independent risk factors were integrated into a nomogram prediction model with the predictive efficiency for TO (area under the curve 75.21%, 95% confidence interval 70.69-79.72%).

CONCLUSION

TO is a realizable outcome measure and should be adopted. We recommend the use of the nomogram proposed as a convenient tool for patient selection and prognosticating outcomes following hepatectomy.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models and Risk Calculators for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure and Postoperative Complications Using a Diverse International Cohort of Major Hepatectomies

OBJECTIVE

The study aim was to develop and validate models to predict clinically significant posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and serious complications [a Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI)>40] using preoperative and intraoperative variables.

BACKGROUND

PHLF is a serious complication after major hepatectomy but does not comprehensively capture a patient's postoperative course. Adding the CCI as an additional metric can account for complications unrelated to liver function.

METHODS

The cohort included adult patients who underwent major hepatectomies at 12 international centers (2010-2020). After splitting the data into training and validation sets (70:30), models for PHLF and a CCI>40 were fit using logistic regression with a lasso penalty on the training cohort. The models were then evaluated on the validation data set.

RESULTS

Among 2192 patients, 185 (8.4%) had clinically significant PHLF and 160 (7.3%) had a CCI>40. The PHLF model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80, calibration slope of 0.95, and calibration-in-the-large of -0.09, while the CCI model had an AUC of 0.76, calibration slope of 0.88, and calibration-in-the-large of 0.02. When the models were provided only preoperative variables to predict PHLF and a CCI>40, this resulted in similar AUCs of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively. Both models were used to build 2 risk calculators with the option to include or exclude intraoperative variables ( PHLF Risk Calculator; CCI>40 Risk Calculator ).

CONCLUSIONS

Using an international cohort of major hepatectomy patients, we used preoperative and intraoperative variables to develop and internally validate multivariable models to predict clinically significant PHLF and a CCI>40 with good discrimination and calibration.

Developing and validating a nomogram based on skeletal muscle index and clinical scoring system for prediction of liver failure after hepatectomy

Background and objectives

Hepatectomy is the preferred treatment for patients with liver tumors. Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains one of the most fatal postoperative complications. We aim to explore the risk factors of PHLF and create a nomogram for early prediction of PHLF.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed patients undergoing hepatectomy at the Affiliated Huaian No. 1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between 2015 and 2022, and the patients were divided into training and internal validation cohorts at an 8:2 ratio randomly. The patients undergoing liver resection from the Affiliated Huaian Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University worked as external validation. Then, a nomogram was developed which was based on multivariate analyses to calculate the risk of PHLF. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and Hosmer -Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.

Results

A total of 421 eligible patients were included in our study. Four preoperative variables were identified after multivariate analysis as follows, ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) score, Child-Pugh score, SMI (Skeletal muscle index), and MELD (Model for end-stage liver disease) score as independent predictors of PHLF. The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts were 0.89, 0.82, and 0.89. Hosmer -Lemeshow P values in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts were 0.91, 0.22, and 0.15. The Calibration curve confirmed that our nomogram prediction results were in accurate agreement with the actual occurrence of PHLF.

Conclusion

We construct a nomogram to predict the grade B/C PHLF of ISGLS (International Study Group of Liver Surgery) in patients who underwent hepatic resection based on risk factors. This tool can provide a visual and accurate preoperative prediction of the grade B/C PHLF and guide the next step of clinical decision-making.

A nomogram for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma based on spleen-volume-to-platelet ratio

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most serious complications after hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and has an association with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to explore the risk factors of PHLF and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict PHLF.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 971 HCC patients undergoing major liver resection at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2011 and 2016, and established a nomogram based on multivariate analyses for predicting PHLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The predictive ability of PHLF of this nomogram was compared with conventional models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The incidence of PHLF was 18.8%. Multivariate analysis identified age, BMI, preoperative ascites, preoperative prealbumin, spleen volume-to-platelet ratio, total bilirubin, and intraoperative blood loss as independent predictors of PHLF. The area under ROC curve (AUROC) of the predictive model was 0.668 and was higher than that of the albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI). The optimal cut-off value of the model was 124.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a nomogram for predicting PHLF based on risk factors. The nomogram can assist clinicians in identifying patients with high-risk PHLF, eventually facilitating earlier interventions and improving clinical outcomes.

A comprehensive preoperative predictive score for post-hepatectomy liver failure after hepatocellular carcinoma resection based on patient comorbidities, tumor burden, and liver function: the CTF score

BACKGROUND

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a dreaded complication following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high mortality rate. We sought to develop a score based on preoperative factors to predict PHLF.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Factors associated with PHLF were identified and used to develop a preoperative comorbidity-tumor burden-liver function (CTF) predictive score.

RESULTS

Among 1785 patients, 106 (5.9%) experienced PHLF. On multivariate analysis, several factors were associated with PHLF including high Charlson comorbidity index (CCI ≥ 5) (OR 2.80, 95%CI, 1.08-7.26), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) (OR 1.99, 95%CI, 1.10-3.56), and tumor burden score (TBS) (OR 1.06, 95%CI, 1.02-1.11) (all p < 0.05). Using the beta-coefficients of these variables, a weighted predictive score was developed and made available online ( https://alaimolaura.shinyapps.io/PHLFriskCalculator/ ). The CTF score (c-index = 0.67) performed better than Child-Pugh score (CPS) (c-index = 0.53) or Barcelona clinic liver cancer system (BCLC) (c-index = 0.57) to predict PHLF. A high CTF score was also an independent adverse prognostic factor for survival (HR 1.61, 95%CI, 1.12-2.30) and recurrence (HR 1.36, 95%CI, 1.08-1.71) (both p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Roughly 1 in 20 patients experienced PHLF following resection of HCC. Patient (i.e., CCI), tumor (i.e., TBS), and liver function (i.e., ALBI) factors were associated with risk of PHLF. These preoperative factors were incorporated into a novel CTF tool that was made available online, which outperformed other previously proposed tools.

Outcomes of patients with post-hepatectomy hypophosphatemia: A narrative review

Phosphate is an essential electrolyte for proper mineralisation of bone, buffering of urine, and diverse cellular actions. Hypophosphatemia (HP) is a clinical spectrum which range from asymptomatic to severe complications such as neuromuscular and pulmonary complications, or even death. Post-hepatectomy HP (PHH) has been reported to be 55.5%-100%. Post-hepatectomy, there is rapid uptake of phosphate and increased mitotic counts to aid in regeneration of residual liver. Concurrently, PHH may be due to increased urinary phosphorous from activation of matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein in the injured liver, which decreases phosphate influx into hepatocytes to sustain adenosine triphosphate synthesis. A literature review was performed on PubMed till January 2022. We included 8 studies which reported on impact of PHH on post-operative outcomes. In patients with diseased liver, PHH was reported to have either beneficial or deleterious effects on post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF), morbidity and/or mortality in various cohorts. In living donor hepatectomy, PHLF was higher in PHH. Benefits of correction of PHH with reduced post-operative complications have been shown. Correction of PHH should be done based on extent of PHH. Existing studies were however heterogenous; further studies should be conducted to assess PHH on post-operative outcomes with standardized phosphate replacement regimes.

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Liver Failure After Major Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the most common cause of mortality after major hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We aim to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict grade B/C PHLF defined by the International Study Group on Liver Surgery Grading (ISGLS) in HCC patients undergoing major hepatectomy.

Study Design

The consecutive HCC patients who underwent major hepatectomy at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2008 and 2013 served as a training cohort to develop a preoperative nomogram, and patients from 2 other hospitals comprised an external validation cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was applied to identify preoperative predictors of grade B/C PHLF. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to establish a nomogram model. Internal and external validations were used to verify the performance of the nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was also compared with the conventional scoring models, including MELD and ALBI score.

Results

A total of 880 patients who underwent major hepatectomy (668 in the training cohort and 192 in the validation cohort) were enrolled in this study. The independent risk factors of grade B/C PHLF were age, gender, prothrombin time, total bilirubin, and CSPH, which were incorporated into the nomogram. Good prediction discrimination was achieved in the training (AUROC: 0.73) and validation (AUROC: 0.72) cohorts. The calibration curve also showed good agreement in both training and validation cohorts. The nomogram has a better performance than MELD and ALBI score models.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram showed more accurate ability to individually predict grade B/C PHLF after major hepatectomy in HCC patients than MELD and ALBI scores.

Nature of the liver volume depending on the gender and age assessing volumetry from a reconstruction of the computed tomography

Although the liver is a regenerating organ, excessive loss of liver volume (LV) can cause fatal liver failure. It is unclear whether LV is correlated with age; however, it is known that liver function decreases with age. In addition, the gender-related role of LV remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the changes in LV by age and gender. Between January and December 2018, 374 consecutive patients who underwent abdominal multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) for any abdominal examinations were enrolled. LV was evaluated using MDCT. The relationship between the LV and body mass index (BMI), body surface area (BSA), age, and gender was investigated. The modified LV (mLV) was calculated by a formula measured LV × 1.5/BSA. LV correlated to BSA more than to BMI in both the males (R: 0.559 vs. 0.416) and females (R: 0.479 vs. 0.300) in our study. Age was negatively correlated to LV and BSA, and correlated to LV more than to BSA in males (R: 0.546 vs. 0.393) and females (R: 0.506 vs. 0.385). In addition, the absolute slope between age and LV in the males was higher than that in the females (14.1 vs. 10.2, respectively). Furthermore, the absolute slope of age and mLV in the males was slightly higher than in the females (9.1 vs. 7.3, respectively). In conclusion, LV in the normal liver is correlated to age rather than the one in the diseased liver. Liver volume in the males decreased more with age than LV in the females.

Mesenchymal stromal cells mitigate liver damage after extended resection in the pig by modulating thrombospondin-1/TGF-β

Post-surgery liver failure is a serious complication for patients after extended partial hepatectomies (ePHx). Previously, we demonstrated in the pig model that transplantation of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) improved circulatory maintenance and supported multi-organ functions after 70% liver resection. Mechanisms behind the beneficial MSC effects remained unknown. Here we performed 70% liver resection in pigs with and without MSC treatment, and animals were monitored for 24 h post surgery. Gene expression profiles were determined in the lung and liver. Bioinformatics analysis predicted organ-independent MSC targets, importantly a role for thrombospondin-1 linked to transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and downstream signaling towards providing epithelial plasticity and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). This prediction was supported histologically and mechanistically, the latter with primary hepatocyte cell cultures. MSC attenuated the surgery-induced increase of tissue damage, of thrombospondin-1 and TGF-β, as well as of epithelial plasticity in both the liver and lung. This suggests that MSC ameliorated surgery-induced hepatocellular stress and EMT, thus supporting epithelial integrity and facilitating regeneration. MSC-derived soluble factor(s) did not directly interfere with intracellular TGF-β signaling, but inhibited thrombospondin-1 secretion from thrombocytes and non-parenchymal liver cells, therewith obviously reducing the availability of active TGF-β.

Impact of introduction of an enhanced recovery protocol on the outcomes of laparoscopic liver resections: A propensity-score matched study

BACKGROUND

Presently, data on the impact of enhanced recovery protocols on the outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection remain limited. We performed propensity matched analysis comparing the outcomes between patients undergoing laparoscopic liver resection before and after the introduction of an enhanced recovery protocol.

METHODS

Between 2013 and 2019, 462 consecutive patients underwent laparoscopic liver resection by 3 surgeons of which 360 met the study inclusion criteria. There were 89 patients who underwent surgery under an enhanced recovery protocol and 271 without an enhanced recovery protocol. One-to-one propensity matched analysis was performed for 84 enhanced recovery protocol patients and 84 nonenhanced recovery protocol patients.

RESULTS

Comparisons between propensity matched cohorts revealed that patients who received laparoscopic liver resection with enhanced recovery protocol had reduced median blood loss (200 vs 300 mL, P = .013), postoperative stay (3 vs 4 days, P = .003), and lower open conversion rates (0% vs 8.3%, P = .008). There was no difference in other key perioperative outcomes such as operation time, postoperative morbidity, postoperative major morbidity, and 30-day readmission rates.

CONCLUSION

A combined approach of enhanced recovery protocol and laparoscopic liver resection was associated with improved perioperative outcomes as opposed to laparoscopic liver resection alone.

A Nomogram Based on Preoperative Inflammatory Indices and ICG-R15 for Prediction of Liver Failure After Hepatectomy in HCC Patients

Objective

To establish a nomogram based on inflammatory indices and ICG-R15 for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) among patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 407 patients with HCC hospitalized at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University between January 2015 and December 2020, and 81 patients with HCC hospitalized at the Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University between January 2019 and January 2020 were included in the study. Totally 488 HCC patients were divided into the training cohort (n=378) and the validation cohort (n=110) by random sampling. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors. Through combining these independent risk factors, a nomogram was established for the prediction of PHLF. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated and compared with traditional models, like CP score (Child-Pugh), MELD score (Model of End-Stage Liver Disease), and ALBI score (albumin-bilirubin) by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Cirrhosis (OR=2.203, 95%CI:1.070-3.824, P=0.030), prothrombin time (PT) (OR=1.886, 95%CI: 1.107-3.211, P=0.020), tumor size (OR=1.107, 95%CI: 1.022-1.200, P=0.013), ICG-R15% (OR=1.141, 95%CI: 1.070-1.216, P<0.001), blood loss (OR=2.415, 95%CI: 1.306-4.468, P=0.005) and AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) (OR=4.652, 95%CI: 1.432-15.112, P=0.011) were independent risk factors of PHLF. Nomogram was built with well-fitted calibration curves on the of these 6 factors. Comparing with CP score (C-index=0.582, 95%CI, 0.523-0.640), ALBI score (C-index=0.670, 95%CI, 0.615-0.725) and MELD score (C-ibasedndex=0.661, 95%CI, 0.606-0.716), the nomogram showed a better predictive value, with a C-index of 0.845 (95%CI, 0.806-0.884). The results were consistent in the validation cohort. DCA confirmed the conclusion as well.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram was established to predict PHLF in HCC patients. The nomogram showed a strong predictive efficiency and would be a convenient tool for us to facilitate clinical decisions.

Prognostic role of preoperative albumin-bilirubin score in posthepatectomy liver failure and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a life-threatening complication after liver resection, resulting in an increased morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological evidence of the association between preoperative albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, a newly established model for assessing liver functional reserve, and the risk of PHLF and mortality remains controversial. A systematical search for relevant literature was performed in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from December 2014 to September 2020. Odds ratio (OR) value and 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted or calculated to synthetically estimate the association of preoperative ALBI score with PHLF and mortality. Meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects model. Twelve studies with a total of 21,348 patients were included in this meta-analysis. It was indicated that, compared to patients with a lower preoperative ALBI grade, patients with a higher grade had a significantly elevated risk of PHLF (6 studies, 18,291 patients; OR = 2.48, 95%CI: 2.00-3.07) and mortality (4 studies15, 139 patients; OR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.38-4.00). In addition, when it was expressed as a continuous variable, ALBI was also a significant predictor of PHLF (6 studies, 3,833 patients; OR = 3.16, 95% CI: 2.07-4.81, per 1-point increase in ALBI score). No significant publication biases were detected as suggested by funnel plots inspection and Begg's tests. The current meta-analysis demonstrates that preoperative elevated ALBI is associated with higher risk of PHLF and mortality after hepatectomy.

Prognostic Value of the Albumin-Bilirubin Grade for the Prediction of Post-Hepatectomy Liver Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Introduction: Liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is often burdened by life-threatening complications, such as post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score can accurately evaluate liver function and the long-term prognosis of HCC patients, including PHLF. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of the ALBI grade in predicting PHLF in HCC patients undergoing LR. (2) Methods: MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus were searched through January 17th, 2021. Studies reporting the ALBI grade and PHLF occurrence in HCC patients undergoing LR were included. The Odds Ratio (OR) prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was pooled, and the heterogeneity was expressed as I2. The quality of the studies was assessed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies). (3) Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. A total of 5377 patients who underwent LR for HCC were considered, of whom 718 (13.4%) developed PHLF. Patients with ALBI grades 2 and 3 before LR showed increased rates of PHLF compared to ALBI grade 1 patients. The pooled OR was 2.572 (95% CI, 1.825 to 3.626, p < 0.001), with substantial heterogeneity between the studies (I2 = 69.6%) and no publication bias (Begg's p = 0.764 and Egger's p = 0.851 tests). All studies were at a 'low risk' or 'unclear risk' of bias. Univariate meta-regression analysis showed that heterogeneity was not dependent on the country of study, the age and sex of the participants, the definition of PHLF used, the rate of patients in Child-Pugh class A or undergoing major hepatectomy. (4) Conclusions: In this meta-analysis of published studies, individuals with ALBI grades of 2 and 3 showed increased rates of PHLF compared to ALBI grade 1 patients.

A multicenter randomized controlled trial comparing administration of antithrombin III after liver resection (HiSCO-05 trial)

BACKGROUND

Posthepatectomy liver failure is a poor prognostic factor after hepatectomy. Various preventive treatments have been tried; however, there are no clinical trials that use posthepatectomy liver failure as the primary endpoint, and the clinical effects of posthepatectomy liver failure have not been fully verified. The aim of this study was to investigate whether administration of antithrombin III can prevent posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with coagulopathy after hepatectomy. This study also evaluated the safety of AT-III administration after hepatectomy.

METHODS

The current study enrolled 141 patients diagnosed with coagulopathy after hepatectomy between October 2015 and September 2018 at 7 hospitals in Hiroshima, Japan (HiSCO group). Patients were randomized to undergo either administration of antithrombin III (n = 64) or non-administration (n = 77). The primary endpoint was the incidence of posthepatectomy liver failure. This randomized controlled trial was registered with the University Medical Information Network Clinical Trial Registry (UMIN000018852).

RESULTS

Treatment for postoperative coagulopathy was performed safely without adverse events. The incidence of posthepatectomy liver failure was similar in both treatment groups (nonadministration of antithrombin III group, 28.5%, versus administration of antithrombin III group, 28.1%; P = .953) The rate of morbidity was higher in the administration group than the non-administrated group (17.2% vs 11.7%, P = .351). Following the multivariate analysis of the whole study group, body mass index ≥25, total bilirubin ≥1.5 mg/dL, and the disseminated intravascular coagulation score ≥5 postoperatively were the independent risk factors for posthepatectomy liver failure.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the administration of antithrombin III resulted in no significant difference in preventing posthepatectomy liver failure, possibly through suppressing coagulopathy.