High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite-host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes

Surveillance and control of SARS-CoV-2 in mustelids: An evolutionary perspective

The relevance of mustelids in SARS-CoV-2 transmission has become increasingly evident. Alongside experimental demonstration of airborne transmission among ferrets, the major animal model for human respiratory diseases, transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within- and/or between-commercial mink farms has occurred and continues to occur. The number of mink reared for the luxury fur trade is approximately 60.5 million, across 36 mustelid-farming countries. By July 2021, SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been reported in 12 of these countries, at 412 European and 20 North American mink farms. Reverse zoonotic transmission events (from humans to mink) have introduced the virus to farms with subsequent extensive mink-to-mink transmission as well as further zoonotic (mink-to-human) transmission events generating cases among both farm workers and the broader community. Overcrowded housing conditions inherent within intensive mink farms, often combined with poor sanitation and welfare, both guarantee spread of SARS-CoV-2 and facilitate opportunities for viral variants, thereby effectively representing biotic hubs for viral transmission and evolution of virulence. Adequate preventative, surveillance and control measures within the mink industry are imperative both for the control of the current global pandemic and to mitigate against future outbreaks.

Identification of pathogens in the invasive hornet Vespa velutina and in native Hymenoptera (Apidae, Vespidae) from SW-Europe

Invasive species contribute to deteriorate the health of ecosystems due to their direct effects on native fauna and the local parasite-host dynamics. We studied the potential impact of the invasive hornet Vespa velutina on the European parasite-host system by comparing the patterns of diversity and abundance of pathogens (i.e. Microsporidia: Nosematidae; Euglenozoa: Trypanosomatidae and Apicomplexa: Lipotrophidae) in European V. velutina specimens with those in the native European hornet Vespa crabro, as well as other common Hymenoptera (genera Vespula, Polistes and Bombus). We show that (i) V. velutina harbours most common hymenopteran enteropathogens as well as several new parasitic taxa. (ii) Parasite diversity in V. velutina is most similar to that of V. crabro. (iii) No unambiguous evidence of pathogen release by V. velutina was detected. This evidence together with the extraordinary population densities that V. velutina reaches in Europe (around of 100,000 individuals per km² per year), mean that this invasive species could severely alter the native pathogen-host dynamics either by actively contributing to the dispersal of the parasites and/or by directly interacting with them, which could have unexpected long-term harmful consequences on the native entomofauna.

The genetic and cultural evolution of unsustainability

Anthropogenic changes are accelerating and threaten the future of life on earth. While the proximate mechanisms of these anthropogenic changes are well studied (e.g., climate change, biodiversity loss, population growth), the evolutionary causality of these anthropogenic changes have been largely ignored. Anthroecological theory (AET) proposes that the ultimate cause of anthropogenic environmental change is multi-level selection for niche construction and ecosystem engineering. Here, we integrate this theory with Lotka's Maximum Power Principle and propose a model linking energy extraction from the environment with genetic, technological and cultural evolution to increase human ecosystem carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is partially determined by energetic factors such as the net energy a population can acquire from its environment and the efficiency of conversion from energy input to offspring output. These factors are under Darwinian genetic selection in all species, but in humans, they are also determined by technology and culture. If there is genetic or non-genetic heritable variation in the ability of an individual or social group to increase its carrying capacity, then we hypothesize that selection or cultural evolution will act to increase carrying capacity. Furthermore, if this evolution of carrying capacity occurs faster than the biotic components of the ecological system can respond via their own evolution, then we hypothesize that unsustainable ecological changes will result.

Multi-type branching processes with time-dependent branching rates

Under mild nondegeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total number of particles (conditioned on survival and divided by the expectation of the resulting random variable) to approach an exponential random variable as time goes to ∞.

Recent spread of Varroa destructor virus-1, a honey bee pathogen, in the United States

RNA viruses impact honey bee health and contribute to elevated colony loss rates worldwide. Deformed wing virus (DWV) and the closely related Varroa destructor virus-1 (VDV1), are the most widespread honey bee viruses. VDV1 is known to cause high rates of overwintering colony losses in Europe, however it was unknown in the United States (US). Using next generation sequencing, we identified VDV1 in honey bee pupae in the US. We tested 603 apiaries the US in 2016 and found that VDV1 was present in 66.0% of them, making it the second most prevalent virus after DWV, which was present in 89.4% of the colonies. VDV1 had the highest load in infected bees (7.45*10¹² ± 1.62*10¹² average copy number ± standard error) compared to other tested viruses, with DWV second (1.04*10¹² ± 0.53*10¹²). Analysis of 75 colonies sourced in 2010 revealed that VDV1 was present in only 2 colonies (2.7%), suggesting its recent spread. We also detected newly emerged recombinants between the US strains of VDV1 and DWV. The presence of these recombinants poses additional risk, because similar VDV1-DWV recombinants constitute the most virulent honeybee viruses in the UK.

Potential drivers of virulence evolution in aquaculture

Infectious diseases are economically detrimental to aquaculture, and with continued expansion and intensification of aquaculture, the importance of managing infectious diseases will likely increase in the future. Here, we use evolution of virulence theory, along with examples, to identify aquaculture practices that might lead to the evolution of increased pathogen virulence. We identify eight practices common in aquaculture that theory predicts may favor evolution toward higher pathogen virulence. Four are related to intensive aquaculture operations, and four others are related specifically to infectious disease control. Our intention is to make aquaculture managers aware of these risks, such that with increased vigilance, they might be able to detect and prevent the emergence and spread of increasingly troublesome pathogen strains in the future.

Spatio-temporal factors influencing the occurrence of Syngamus trachea within release pens in the South West of England

Syngamus trachea is a pathogenic tracheal nematode that causes syngamiasis in wild and game birds, especially when birds are managed at high densities. Despite its pathogenic nature, very little is known about its epidemiology and relationship with ambient temperature and humidity. The spatial and temporal modelling of disease was undertaken on two pheasant estates within the South West of England from April 2014 to August 2014. Significant differences between the mean numbers of eggs per gram of soil were identified between pens at both site 1 and site 2 but did not differ significantly between sites. Egg abundance was significantly associated with soil moisture content, with greater egg survival between years in pens with higher average volumetric soil moisture content. Previous years stocking density and pen age were also associated with greater egg survival between years with more eggs being recovered in pens with greater stocking densities, and pens that had been sited longer. The greatest model to explain the variation in the numbers of eggs per gram of soil per pen was a combination of soil moisture content, stocking density and pen age. Larval recovery differed significantly between sites. Larval abundance was significantly and positively associated with temperature and relative humidity at site 1. Similarly, temperature and humidity were also positively and significantly associated with larval abundance at site 2. Rainfall did not influence larval recovery at either site 1 or site 2. The model with the greatest ability to explain larval abundance at both sites, was a combination of temperature, humidity and rainfall. Infection status (positive faecal egg counts) was significantly and positively associated with larval abundance at both sites, but rainfall was only positively associated at site 1. Temperature and humidity were positively associated with infection status at site 2, but not at site 1. The present study highlights the influence of climatic variables on both egg survival and larval abundance, and could therefore be used to develop more targeted treatment strategies around periods of higher disease risk. The frequent use of release pens is a clear factor in the epidemiology of syngamiasis, and it is recommended that pens be rested and/or rotated in order to reduce infection pressure in subsequent flocks.