Optimal EPO dosing in hemodialysis patients using a non-linear model predictive control approach

Usage of the Anemia Control Model Is Associated with Reduced Hospitalization Risk in Hemodialysis

INTRODUCTION

The management of anemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD-An) presents significant challenges for nephrologists due to variable responsiveness to erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs), hemoglobin (Hb) cycling, and multiple clinical factors affecting erythropoiesis. The Anemia Control Model (ACM) is a decision support system designed to personalize anemia treatment, which has shown improvements in achieving Hb targets, reducing ESA doses, and maintaining Hb stability. This study aimed to evaluate the association between ACM-guided anemia management with hospitalizations and survival in a large cohort of hemodialysis patients.

METHODS

This multi-center, retrospective cohort study evaluated adult hemodialysis patients within the European Fresenius Medical Care NephroCare network from 2014 to 2019. Patients treated according to ACM recommendations were compared to those from centers without ACM. Data on demographics, comorbidities, and dialysis treatment were used to compute a propensity score estimating the likelihood of receiving ACM-guided care. The primary endpoint was hospitalizations during follow-up; the secondary endpoint was survival. A 1:1 propensity score-matched design was used to minimize confounding bias.

RESULTS

A total of 20,209 eligible patients were considered (reference group: 17,101; ACM adherent group: 3108). Before matching, the mean age was 65.3 ± 14.5 years, with 59.2% men. Propensity score matching resulted in two groups of 1950 patients each. Matched ACM adherent and non-ACM patients showed negligible differences in baseline characteristics. Hospitalization rates were lower in the ACM group both before matching (71.3 vs. 82.6 per 100 person-years, p < 0.001) and after matching (74.3 vs. 86.7 per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). During follow-up, 385 patients died, showing no significant survival benefit for ACM-guided care (hazard ratio = 0.93; p = 0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

ACM-guided anemia management was associated with a significant reduction in hospitalization risk among hemodialysis patients. These results further support the utility of ACM as a decision-support tool enhancing anemia management in clinical practice.

Effects of Individualized Anemia Therapy on Hemoglobin Stability: A Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial in Patients on Hemodialysis

Key Points

Background

Anemia is common among patients on hemodialysis. Maintaining stable hemoglobin levels within predefined target levels can be challenging, particularly in patients with frequent hemoglobin fluctuations both above and below the desired targets. We conducted a multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing our anemia therapy assistance software against a standard population-based anemia treatment protocol. We hypothesized that personalized dosing of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) improves hemoglobin target attainment.

Methods

Ninety-six patients undergoing hemodialysis and receiving methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta were randomized 1:1 to the intervention group (personalized ESA dose recommendations computed by the software) or the standard-of-care group for 26 weeks. The therapy assistance software combined a physiology-based mathematical model and a model predictive controller designed to stabilize hemoglobin levels within a tight target range (10–11 g/dl). The primary outcome measure was the percentage of hemoglobin measurements within the target. Secondary outcome measures included measures of hemoglobin variability and ESA utilization.

Results

The intervention group showed an improved median percentage of hemoglobin measurements within target at 47% (interquartile range, 39–58), with a 10% point median difference between the two groups (95% confidence interval, 3 to 16; P = 0.008). The odds ratio of being within the hemoglobin target in the standard-of-care group compared with the group receiving the personalized ESA recommendations was 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.51 to 0.92). The variability of hemoglobin levels decreased in the intervention group, with the percentage of patients experiencing fluctuating hemoglobin levels being 45% versus 82% in the standard-of-care group. ESA usage was reduced by approximately 25% in the intervention group.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrated an improved hemoglobin target attainment and variability by using personalized ESA recommendations using the physiology-based anemia therapy assistance software.

Clinical Trial registration number:

NCT04360902.

Enhancing medication management in hemodialysis patients: Exploring the impact of patient-centered pharmacist care and motivational interviewing

BACKGROUND

Patients on hemodialysis (HD) often uses several medications, making them highly susceptible to medication-related problems (MRP) thereby leading to medication nonadherence. Therefore, an innovative pharmaceutical care strategy incorporating drug therapy optimization (DTO) and motivational interviewing (MI) can mitigate medication-related problems and optimize patient care.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to assess the efficacy of pharmacist led interventions in utilizing DTO and MI techniques in managing medication related problems among patients undergoing hemodialysis.

METHOD AND DESIGN

A12-months, cross sectional prospective study was conducted among 63 End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) patients on HD. DTO was conducted by the pharmacist to identify the MRP by reviewing complete medication list gathered from patient interview and medical records. All MRPs was classified using the PCNE classification version 9.00 and medication issues, that require patient involvement were categorized as patient-related, while those that necessitate physician intervention were classified as physician-related. The DTO was performed at the baseline, 6-month and at the final month of the study. Identified medication issues were communicated to the site nephrologist and was tracked during next follow up. Whereas MI was conducted physically at Month-3 and via telephone on month-6 and month-9 to address patient related medication issues.

RESULTS

Mean age of the study population was 48.5±14 years. While the mean number of prescribed medications was 8.1±2 with 57% of the patients taking more than 5 types of medication. After 12 months of pharmacist intervention using DTO and MI, a mean reduction in MRP was observed for both patient-related and physician-related MRPs across three time series. However, further analysis using repeated measure ANOVA revealed that the reduction in patient-related MRPs was statistically significant [F(1.491, 92.412) = 60.921, p < 0.05], while no statistically significant difference was detected in physician-related MRPs [F(2, 124) = 2.216, P = 0.113].

CONCLUSION

Pharmaceutical care service through DTO and MI can effectively reduce and prevent drug-related issues to optimize medication therapy among HD patients.

Multi-head self-attention mechanism enabled individualized hemoglobin prediction and treatment recommendation systems in anemia management for hemodialysis patients

Anemia is a critical complication in hemodialysis patients, but the response to erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESA) treatment varies from patient to patient and is not linear across different time points. The aim of this study was to develop deep learning algorithms for individualized anemia management. We retrospectively collected 36,677 data points from 623 hemodialysis patients, including clinical data, laboratory values, hemoglobin levels, and previous ESA doses. To reduce the computational complexity associated with recurrent neural networks (RNN) in processing time-series data, we developed neural networks based on multi-head self-attention mechanisms in an efficient and effective hemoglobin prediction model. Our proposed model achieved a more accurate hemoglobin prediction than the state-of-the-art RNN model, as shown by the smaller mean absolute error (MAE) of hemoglobin (0.451 vs. 0.593 g/dL, p = 0.014). In ESA (including darbepoetin and epoetin) dose recommendation, the simulation results by our model revealed a higher rate of achieved hemoglobin targets (physician prescription vs. model: 86.3 % vs. 92.7 %, p < 0.001), a lower rate of hemoglobin levels below 10 g/dL (13.7 % vs. 7.3 %, p < 0.001) and smaller change in hemoglobin levels (0.6 g/dL vs. 0.4 g/dL, p < 0.001) in all patients. Our model holds great potential for individualized anemia management as a computerized clinical decision support system for hemodialysis patients. Further external validation with other datasets and prospective clinical utility studies are warranted.

Mechanisms of hemoglobin cycling in anemia patients treated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents

Patients with renal anemia are frequently treated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs), which are dynamically dosed in order to stabilize blood hemoglobin levels within a specified target range. During typical ESA treatments, a fraction of patients experience hemoglobin 'cycling' periods during which hemoglobin levels periodically over- and undershoot the target range. Here we report a specific mechanism of hemoglobin cycling, whereby cycles emerge from the patient's delayed physiological response to ESAs and concurrent ESA dose adjustments. We introduce a minimal theoretical model that can explain dynamic hallmarks of observed hemoglobin cycling events in clinical time series and elucidates how physiological factors (such as red blood cell lifespan and ESA responsiveness) and treatment-related factors (such as dosing schemes) affect cycling. These results show that in general, hemoglobin cycling cannot be attributed to patient physiology or ESA treatment alone but emerges through an interplay of both, with consequences for the design of ESA treatment strategies.

Why Are Periodic Erythrocytic Diseases so Rare in Humans?

Many studies have shown that periodic erythrocytic (red blood cell linked) diseases are extremely rare in humans. To explain this observation, we develop here a simple model of erythropoiesis in mammals and investigate its stability in the parameter space. A bifurcation analysis enables us to sketch stability diagrams in the plane of key parameters. Contrary to some other mammal species such as rabbits, mice or dogs, we show that human-specific parameter values prevent periodic oscillations of red blood cells levels. In other words, human erythropoiesis seems to lie in a region of parameter space where oscillations exclusively concerning red blood cells cannot appear. Further mathematical analysis show that periodic oscillations of red blood cells levels are highly unusual and if exist, might only be due to an abnormally high erythrocytes destruction rate or to an abnormal hematopoietic stem cell commitment into the erythrocytic lineage. We also propose numerical results only for an improved version of our approach in order to give a more realistic but more complex approach of our problem.

Multistage hematopoietic stem cell regulation in the mouse: A combined biological and mathematical approach

We have reconciled steady-state and stress hematopoiesis in a single mathematical model based on murine in vivo experiments and with a focus on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. A phenylhydrazine stress was first applied to mice. A reduced cell number in each progenitor compartment was evidenced during the next 7 days through a drastic level of differentiation without proliferation, followed by a huge proliferative response in all compartments including long-term hematopoietic stem cells, before a return to normal levels. Data analysis led to the addition to the 6-compartment model, of time-dependent regulation that depended indirectly on the compartment sizes. The resulting model was finely calibrated using a stochastic optimization algorithm and could reproduce biological data in silico when applied to different stress conditions (bleeding, chemotherapy, HSC depletion). In conclusion, our multi-step and time-dependent model of immature hematopoiesis provides new avenues to a better understanding of both normal and pathological hematopoiesis.

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We describe a new 6-compartment time-dependent regulated model of hematopoiesis

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Biological data under steady state and stress and cell dynamics were used

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Modeling is able to recapitulate effects from chemotherapy, bleeding, or HSC depletion

OptiDose: Computing the Individualized Optimal Drug Dosing Regimen Using Optimal Control

Providing the optimal dosing strategy of a drug for an individual patient is an important task in pharmaceutical sciences and daily clinical application. We developed and validated an optimal dosing algorithm (OptiDose) that computes the optimal individualized dosing regimen for pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models in substantially different scenarios with various routes of administration by solving an optimal control problem. The aim is to compute a control that brings the underlying system as closely as possible to a desired reference function by minimizing a cost functional. In pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling, the controls are the administered doses and the reference function can be the disease progression. Drug administration at certain time points provides a finite number of discrete controls, the drug doses, determining the drug concentration and its effect on the disease progression. Consequently, rewriting the cost functional gives a finite-dimensional optimal control problem depending only on the doses. Adjoint techniques allow to compute the gradient of the cost functional efficiently. This admits to solve the optimal control problem with robust algorithms such as quasi-Newton methods from finite-dimensional optimization. OptiDose is applied to three relevant but substantially different pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic examples.

Artificial intelligence supported anemia control system (AISACS) to prevent anemia in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Anemia, for which erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and iron supplements (ISs) are used as preventive measures, presents important difficulties for hemodialysis patients. Nevertheless, the number of physicians able to manage such medications appropriately is not keeping pace with the rapid increase of hemodialysis patients. Moreover, the high cost of ESAs imposes heavy burdens on medical insurance systems. An artificial-intelligence-supported anemia control system (AISACS) trained using administration direction data from experienced physicians has been developed by the authors. For the system, appropriate data selection and rectification techniques play important roles. Decision making related to ESAs poses a multi-class classification problem for which a two-step classification technique is introduced. Several validations have demonstrated that AISACS exhibits high performance with correct classification rates of 72%-87% and clinically appropriate classification rates of 92%-98%.