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Frans VF, Liu J. Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:1365-1377. [PMID: 38867092 PMCID: PMC11239511 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02435-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/14/2024]
Abstract
Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronica F Frans
- Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
- Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
- W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, USA.
| | - Jianguo Liu
- Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
- Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
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Liu S, Liu Y, Teschke K, Hindell MA, Downey R, Woods B, Kang B, Ma S, Zhang C, Li J, Ye Z, Sun P, He J, Tian Y. Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios. MARINE LIFE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 6:68-83. [PMID: 38433967 PMCID: PMC10902249 DOI: 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuhao Liu
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Yang Liu
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100 China
| | - Katharina Teschke
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
- Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity at the University Oldenburg, Ammerländer Heerstraße 231, 23129 Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Mark A Hindell
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7004 Australia
| | - Rachel Downey
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2602 Australia
| | - Briannyn Woods
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7004 Australia
| | - Bin Kang
- College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Shuyang Ma
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Chi Zhang
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Jianchao Li
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Zhenjiang Ye
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Peng Sun
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
| | - Jianfeng He
- Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, 200136 China
| | - Yongjun Tian
- Research Centre for Deep Sea and Polar Fisheries, and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100 China
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Wu J. The risk of forfeiting the ranges of reptiles under nonrandom and stochastic scenarios of moving climate conditions: a case study for 115 species in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:51511-51529. [PMID: 33982261 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14247-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Revealing the hazard features of forfeiting areal ranges for nonidentical scenarios of shifting climatic conditions is pivotal for the conformation of reptiles to climatic warming. Taking 115 reptiles in China as an example, the indefiniteness and danger of shrinking geographical range for the reptiles under stochastic and nonrandom scenarios of moving climatic situations were inspected via exploiting the scenarios of shifting climatic status associated with the representative concentration pathways, Monte Carlo simulation, and the classifications scheme based on the fuzzy set. For non-stochastic states of altering climatic elements, the richness of 115 reptiles improved in certain sites of northeastern, and western China and dropped in several areas of northern, eastern, central China, and southeastern China: roughly 59-74 reptiles forfeiting less than 20% of their present ranges, roughly 25-34 reptiles narrowing less than 20-40% of their present areal ranges, and roughly 105-111 reptiles inhabited more than 80% of their overall areal ranges. For the random status of shifting climatic elements, the count of reptiles that forfeited the various extent of the present or entire areal ranges descended with raising the eventuality; with a possibility of over 0.6, the count of reptiles that minified less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of the present ranges was roughly 28-49, 5-10, 1-3, 0-1 and 13-18, separately; the count of reptiles that inhabited below 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and more than 80% of the entire real ranges was roughly 0-1, 5-6, 1-5, 0-2 and 35-36, separately. About 30% of 115 reptiles would face disappearance danger in response to moving climate conditions in the absence of adaption steps, and the conformation measures were indispensable for the reptiles that shrunk their areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianguo Wu
- The Institute of Environmental Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, No 8, Da Yang Fang, Beiyuan, Anwai, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100012, China.
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