Phylogeography of split kelp Hedophyllum nigripes: northern ice-age refugia and trans-Arctic dispersal

Climate change threatens unique evolutionary diversity in Australian kelp refugia

Climate change has driven contemporary decline and loss of kelp forests globally with an accompanying loss of their ecological and economic values. Kelp populations at equatorward-range edges are particularly vulnerable to climate change as these locations are undergoing warming at or beyond thermal tolerance thresholds. Concerningly, these range-edge populations may contain unique adaptive or evolutionary genetic diversity that is vulnerable to warming. We explore haplotype diversity by generating a Templeton-Crandall-Sing (TCS) network analysis of 119 Cytochrome C Oxidase (COI) sequences among four major population groupings for extant and putatively extinct populations only known from herbarium specimens of the dominant Laminarian kelp Ecklonia radiata in the south-western Pacific, a region warming at 2-4 times the global average. Six haplotypes occurred across the region with one being widespread across most populations. Three unique haplotypes were found in a deep-water range-edge population off Moreton Island, Queensland, which likely represents both a contemporary and historic refuge during periods of climatic change. Hindcasting E. radiata cover estimates using extant data, we reveal that this region likely supported the highest kelp cover in eastern Australia during the last glacial maximum. The equatorward range edge, deep-water kelp populations off Moreton Island represent a genetically diverse evolutionary refuge that is currently threatened by warming and requires prompt ex-situ conservation measures.

Standing Crop, Turnover, and Production Dynamics of Macrocystis pyrifera and Understory Species Hedophyllum nigripes and Neoagarum fimbriatum in High Latitude Giant Kelp Forests

Production rates reported for canopy-forming kelps have highlighted the potential contributions of these foundational macroalgal species to carbon cycling and sequestration on a globally relevant scale. Yet, the production dynamics of many kelp species remain poorly resolved. For example, productivity estimates for the widely distributed giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera are based on a few studies from the center of this species' range. To address this geospatial bias, we surveyed giant kelp beds in their high latitude fringe habitat in southeast Alaska to quantify foliar standing crop, growth and loss rates, and productivity of M. pyrifera and co-occurring understory kelps Hedophyllum nigripes and Neoagarum fimbriatum. We found that giant kelp beds at the poleward edge of their range produce ~150 g C · m-2 · year-1 from a standing biomass that turns over an estimated 2.1 times per year, substantially lower rates than have been observed at lower latitudes. Although the productivity of high latitude M. pyrifera dwarfs production by associated understory kelps in both winter and summer seasons, phenological differences in growth and relative carbon and nitrogen content among the three kelp species suggests their complementary value as nutritional resources to consumers. This work represents the highest latitude consideration of M. pyrifera forest production to date, providing a valuable quantification of kelp carbon cycling in this highly seasonal environment.

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

Phylogeography of sugar kelp: Northern ice-age refugia in the Gulf of Alaska

Many Northeast (NE) Pacific fishes and invertebrates survived Pleistocene glaciations in northern refugia, but the extent that kelps survived in northern areas is uncertain. Here, we test the hypothesis that populations of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) persisted in the Gulf of Alaska during ice-age maxima when the western margin of the Cordilleran ice sheet covered coastal areas around the NE Pacific Ocean. We estimated genetic diversities within and phylogeographical relationships among 14 populations along 2,800 km in the NE Pacific and Bering Sea with partial sequences of mitochondrial DNA 5'-cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI, bp = 624, n = 543), chloroplast DNA ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase large subunit-3' (rbcL, bp = 735, n = 514), and 11 microsatellite loci. Concatenated sequences of rbcL and COI showed moderate levels of within-population genetic diversity (mean h = 0.200) but substantial differences among populations (ΦST = 0.834, p < .0001). Microsatellites showed moderate levels of heterozygosity within populations (mean H E = 0.391). Kelps in the same organellar lineage tended to cluster together, regardless of geographic origins, as indicated in a principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) of microsatellite genotypes. The PCoA also showed evidence of nuclear hybridizations between co-occurring organellar lineages. Individual admixture plots with population clusters of K = 2, 6, and 9 showed increasing complexity with considerable historical admixture between some clusters. A time-calibrated phylogeny placed divergences between rbcL-COI lineages at 1.4 million years at most. The time frames of mutation in the rbcL-COI lineages and microsatellite population clusters differed among locations. The existence of ancient lineages in the Gulf of Alaska, moderate levels of genetic diversity, and the absence of departures from neutrality are consistent with northern refugia during multiple Croll-Milankovitch climate cycles in the Pleistocene Epoch.