US detection of medial meniscus extrusion can predict the risk of developing radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a 5-year cohort study

The Role of Ultrasound in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Meniscal Injuries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review evaluates the current understanding of the role of ultrasound in the diagnosis and treatment of meniscal disorders.

RECENT FINDINGS

Ultrasound (US) demonstrates similar sensitivity and specificity when compared to magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of meniscal injuries when compared to arthroscopy. Meniscal extrusion (ME) under US can be a reliable metric to evaluate for meniscal root tears in knees with and without osteoarthritis (OA). Sonographic ME is associated with development of OA in knees without OA. US following allograft meniscal transplant may be useful in predicting graft failure. US findings can be used to screen for discoid menisci and may demonstrate snapping of a type 3 discoid lateral meniscus. Shear wave elastography for meniscal injuries is in its infancy; however, increased meniscal stiffness may be seen with meniscal degeneration. Perimeniscal corticosteroid injections may provide short term relief from meniscal symptoms, and intrameniscal platelet-rich plasma injections appear to be safe and effective up to three years. Ultrasound-assisted meniscal surgery may increase the safety of all inside repairs near the lateral root and may assist in assessing meniscal reduction following root repair. Diagnostic US can demonstrate with high accuracy a variety of meniscal pathologies and can be considered a screening tool. Newer technologies such as shear wave elastography may allow us to evaluate characteristics of meniscal tissue that is not possible on conventional imaging. US-guided (USG) treatment of meniscal injuries is possible and may be preferable to surgery for the initial treatment of degenerative meniscal lesions. USG or US-assisted meniscal surgery is in its infancy.

Medial meniscus extrusion during gait is associated with decrease in knee rotation in early-stage knee osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND

In patients with medial knee osteoarthritis (OA), medial meniscus extrusion during gait is aggravated by mechanical stress, such as knee adduction moment (KAM). Conversely, the decrease in the range of knee rotation during stance phase is also one of the important issues in early knee OA, whereas the correlation between medial meniscus extrusion and knee rotation during gait are unclear.

RESEARCH QUESTION

To investigate the correlation between increase in medial meniscus extrusion and range of knee rotation during gait in patients with early- and late-stage of knee OA.

METHODS

Forty patients with medial knee OA were enrolled and divided into early- and late-OA group by Kellgren-Lawrence grading scale. During gait tasks, the extent of medial meniscus extrusion was measured using ultrasonography and kinetic/kinematic data were measured using three-dimensional motion analysis system. The correlation between medial meniscus extrusion and the range of knee rotation or KAM were evaluated in the overall, early-, and late- OA groups.

RESULTS

A significant negative correlation was observed between an increase in medial meniscus extrusion and range of knee rotation angle in early-OA group only. However, an increase in medial meniscus extrusion significantly correlated with the second KAM peak in the overall and early-OA groups.

SIGNIFICANCE

The decrease in range of knee rotation during stance phase may be associated with the increase in medial meniscus extrusion during gait in patients with early knee OA.

The ultrasound assessment of osteoarthritis: the current status

Traditionally, osteoarthritis (OA) is diagnosed with the clinical examination supplemented by the conventional radiography (CR). In the research literature, the role of ultrasound (US) imaging in the diagnostics of OA has risen steadily during the last two decades. US imaging is cheap and globally widely available often already in primary healthcare. Here, we reviewed the most essential US literature focusing on OA diagnostics and progression prediction using the various search engines. Starting from the year 2000, our search provided 1 445 journal articles. After reviewing the abstracts, 89 articles were finally included. Most of the reviewed articles focused on the imaging of knee and hand OA, whereas only a minority dealt with the imaging of hip, ankle, midfoot, acromioclavicular, and temporomandibular joints. Overall, during the last 20 years, the use of US imaging for OA assessment has increased in the scientific literature. In knee and hand joints, US imaging has been reported to be a promising tool to evaluate OA changes. Furthermore, the reproducibility of US as well as its association to MRI findings are excellent. Importantly, US seems to even outperform CR in certain aspects, such as detection of osteophytes, joint inflammation, meniscus protrusion, and localized cartilage damage (especially at the medial femoral condyle and sulcus area). Based on the reviewed literature, US can be truly considered as a complementary tool to CR in the clinical setup for OA diagnostics. New technical developments may even enhance the diagnostic value of the US in the future.

The influence of meniscal pathology in the incidence of knee osteoarthritis: a review

IMPORTANCE

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a common cause of pain and disability in older persons, affecting approximately 14 million individuals in the USA. Meniscal damage is also common in this age group with a prevalence of 35% in a middle-aged and older community sample and 82% in persons with evidence of radiographic knee osteoarthritis. This paper systematically reviews evidence on the association of meniscal pathology and incident radiographic knee OA.

OBSERVATIONS

We included 15 articles, published between 2013 and 2021, assessing the relationship between meniscal pathology and OA incidence (Fig. 1). The menisci are crucial load-bearing structures, and the resulting increase in biomechanical stress due to meniscal damage increases the risk for OA development. While some discrepancies are present in the literature, a clinically meaningful association has been generally established between the presence of a meniscal tear or meniscal extrusion and subsequent development of incident OA. Of note, larger radial tears as well as complex and more severe tears exhibit the strongest association with the development of incident OA. The relationship between other features of meniscal morphology-such as meniscal volume and meniscal coverage-and incident OA is less clearly documented.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The early detection of meniscal pathology can be used to trigger preventative and therapeutic strategies designed to avert or delay knee OA in this at-risk population.

Preoperative valgus-corrected hip-knee-ankle angle and medial meniscal extrusion are useful for evaluating postoperative alignment in mobile-bearing UKA

Purpose

The purposes of the study were to analyze the correlation between preoperative variables (valgus corrected hip-knee-ankle angle (vcHKA), medial osteophyte areas of the tibia and femur, and medial meniscus extrusion (MME)) and the postoperative alignment in mobile-bearing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA).

Methods

This study enrolled 109 patients (118 knees) who underwent mobile-bearing UKA between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2023, retrospectively. Radiographic parameters, including the HKA, hip-knee-shaft angle (HKS), and valgus-corrected femorotibial angle (vcFTA), were measured using preoperative radiographs. The vcHKA was calculated as vcFTA - HKS. The medial osteophyte areas of the tibia and femur and MME were measured using knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Simple and multiple linear regression analyses, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed.

Results

In total, 109 patients (118 knees) were enrolled in this study. In the multiple linear regression analysis, vcHKA (β = 0.732, 95 % confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.582 to 0.881; p < 0.001) and MME (β = 0.203, 95%CI = 0.001 to 0.405; p = 0.049) were positively correlated with postoperative HKA, and postoperative HKA was modeled according to the following equation: 45.420 + (0.732° * vcHKA) + (0.203 mm × MME). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, vcHKA (odds ratio (OR) = 2.007, 95 % CI = 1.433 to 2.810, p < 0.001) was associated with postoperative valgus malalignment independently. In the ROC curve, vcHKA (cutoff value: 180°) was predictive of postoperative valgus malalignment, with an accuracy (95%CI) of 0.862 (0.780-0.944).

Conclusion

Overcorrection of a varus knee under valgus stress radiograph (VSR) and excessive MME on preoperative MRI increase the possibility of overcorrection of postoperative alignment in mobile-bearing UKA.

Development of a Novel Rat Knee Osteoarthritis Model Induced by Medial Meniscus Extrusion

OBJECTIVE

The medial meniscus extrusion (MME) is associated with increased stress on the knee joint, which leads to cartilage degeneration. To evaluate the etiology of knee osteoarthritis, it is extremely important to create animal models of the disease that more closely resemble actual clinical conditions in terms of symptomatology, molecular biology, and histology. This study aimed to create a clinically relevant model of MME in rats.

DESIGN

Behavioral, molecular biological, and histological changes in the newly developed rat MME model were compared with those in sham and medial meniscus transection and medial collateral ligament transection (MMT) models to examine the characteristics of this model.

RESULTS

In the MME rat model, behavioral evaluation shows abnormalities in gait compared with the other 2 groups, and molecular biological evaluation of the infrapatellar synovia of rats shows that gene expression of inflammatory cytokines, matrix-degrading enzymes, and pain-related nerve growth factor was increased compared with the sham group. Furthermore, histological evaluation reveals that cartilage degeneration was the most severe in the MME group.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly developed MME model reproduced the characteristic pathology of MME in clinical practice, such as severe pain, inflammation, and rapid progression of osteoarthritis. The MME model, which might more closely mimic human knee osteoarthritis (OA), could be a useful model for elucidating the pathophysiology and considering therapeutic management for knee OA.

Charting Aging Trajectories of Knee Cartilage Thickness for Early Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: An MRI Study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Cohort

Knee osteoarthritis (OA), a prevalent joint disease in the U.S., poses challenges in terms of predicting of its early progression. Although high-resolution knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) facilitates more precise OA diagnosis, the heterogeneous and multifactorial aspects of OA pathology remain significant obstacles for prognosis. MRI-based scoring systems, while standardizing OA assessment, are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. Current AI technologies facilitate knee OA risk scoring and progression prediction, but these often focus on the symptomatic phase of OA, bypassing initial-stage OA prediction. Moreover, their reliance on complex algorithms can hinder clinical interpretation. To this end, we make this effort to construct a computationally efficient, easily-interpretable, and state-of-the-art approach aiding in the radiographic OA (rOA) auto-classification and prediction of the incidence and progression, by contrasting an individual's cartilage thickness with a similar demographic in the rOA-free cohort. To better visualize, we have developed the toolset for both prediction and local visualization. A movie demonstrating different subtypes of dynamic changes in local centile scores during rOA progression is available at https://tli3.github.io/KneeOA/. Specifically, we constructed age-BMI-dependent reference charts for knee OA cartilage thickness, based on MRI scans from 957 radiographic OA (rOA)-free individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. Then we extracted local and global centiles by contrasting an individual's cartilage thickness to the rOA-free cohort with a similar age and BMI. Using traditional boosting approaches with our centile-based features, we obtain rOA classification of KLG ≤ 1 versus KLG = 2 (AUC = 0.95, F1 = 0.89), KLG ≤ 1 versus KLG ≥ 2 (AUC = 0.90, F1 = 0.82) and prediction of KLG2 progression (AUC = 0.98, F1 = 0.94), rOA incidence (KLG increasing from < 2 to ≥ 2; AUC = 0.81, F1 = 0.69) and rOA initial transition (KLG from 0 to 1; AUC = 0.64, F1 = 0.65) within a future 48-month period. Such performance in classifying KLG ≥ 2 matches that of deep learning methods in recent literature. Furthermore, its clinical interpretation suggests that cartilage changes, such as thickening in lateral femoral and anterior femoral regions and thinning in lateral tibial regions, may serve as indicators for prediction of rOA incidence and early progression. Meanwhile, cartilage thickening in the posterior medial and posterior lateral femoral regions, coupled with a reduction in the central medial femoral region, may signify initial phases of rOA transition.

Evaluation of Medial Meniscal Extrusion Using Radiography

Recently, there has been increasing interest in medial meniscal extrusion (MME), but few reports have evaluated MME via X-ray. In this study, the amount of MME and meniscal height at the medial border of the tibia were measured via X-ray with gradation processing. The extrusion length divided by the meniscal height yields the meniscal extrusion ratio, which was used as an index. In addition, the medial meniscal length of the part protruding from the medial border of the tibia on MRI was measured as an absolute value. Then, the correlation between the meniscal extrusion ratio and the amount of MME on MRI was examined, and there was a strong correlation between the meniscal extrusion ratio via X-ray and the amount of MME on MRI (correlation coefficient 0.860, p < 0.0001). The cut-off value of the meniscal extrusion ratio via X-ray for positive meniscal extrusion on MRI was 0.50, with an AUC of 0.9825, sensitivity of 0.9063, and specificity of 0.8663. From the present study, it was possible to measure the extrusion length and meniscal height via gradation processing, with X-ray and without MRI, and to calculate the meniscal extrusion ratio, which strongly correlates with the amount of MME on MRI.

An Update on Clinical Utility of Musculoskeletal Ultrasonography in Knee Osteoarthritis

In knee osteoarthritis (KOA), timely and accurate assessment of the severity is essential to help orthopedic surgeons determine the most appropriate therapeutic strategies and evaluate disease outcomes and responses for corresponding treatments. In KOA, musculoskeletal ultrasonography (MSUS) could effectively help detect various abnormalities, including synovitis, osteophytes, and cartilage damage. Further, MSUS could be used to monitor the response to different therapies in KOA, to guide local diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In the future, applications based on continuously evolving US tools could enhance the clinical utility of MSUS in KOA.

Meniscal extrusion, cartilage, bone, and ligament lesions associated with medial meniscus posterior root tear gap

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relationship between the severity of the tear gap resulting from medial meniscus posterior root (MMPR) tear and medial meniscal extrusion, cartilage, bone, and ligament lesions on MRI.

METHODS

A total of 133 patients with MMPR tear were retrospectively evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups according to the tear gap width as minor (≤ 4 mm) and widely (4 mm<) displaced. Medial meniscal extrusion and medial compartmental chondromalacia, bone and ligament lesions were analyzed.

RESULTS

There were 61 patients (56 women and 5 men) in the minor displaced group (mean age: 56.3 years, range: 29-82 years) and 72 patients (59 women, 13 men) in the widely displaced group (mean age: 53.2 years, range: 20-86 years). There was no significant difference in terms of age and sex (p = 0.31 and p = 0.09, respectively). The mean absolute extrusion was 3.51 mm (range: 1.5-5 mm) in the minor displaced group and 4.52 mm (range: 2.4-7.2 mm) in the widely displaced group (p < 0.001). High-grade medial femoral condylar chondromalacia was more common in the widely displaced group (p = 0.002). Osteophyte, bone marrow edema, and subchondral cyst in the medial compartment, and ligament injury were higher in the widely displaced group, but were not statistically significant (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The amount of medial meniscal extrusion and the prevalence of high-grade medial femoral condylar chondromalacia were found to be significantly more in patients with wider tear gap. Determining the amount of tear gap in the evaluation of root ligament tears on MRI is important to predict knee joint internal derangement.

Effusion detected by ultrasonography and overweight may predict the risk of knee osteoarthritis in females with early knee osteoarthritis: a retrospective analysis of Iwaki cohort data

BACKGROUND

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) has enormous medical and socioeconomic burdens, which early diagnosis and intervention can reduce. We investigated the influence of knee effusion on the progression of knee OA in patients with early knee OA.

METHODS

A total of 404 participants without radiographic knee OA were assessed from a 3-year longitudinal analysis. Participants were classified into non-OA and early knee OA groups. The effusion area (mm²) was quantified using ultrasonography. Receiver operating characteristic and logistic regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

At the 3-year follow-up, 114 of 349 knees (32%) had progressed from non-OA and 32 of 55 knees (58%) had progressed from early knee OA to radiographic knee OA. Logistic regression analysis showed that female sex (odds ratio [OR] 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CIs] 2.98-5.42), early knee OA (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.08-3.75), body mass index (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), and effusion area (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02) were significantly correlated with knee OA progression. Women who were overweight (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m²) with more severe effusion had a higher risk of OA progression (area under the curve = 0.691, OR = 6.00) compared to those not overweight (area under the curve = 0.568, OR = 1.91).

CONCLUSION

Knee effusion may be an indicator of the progression of early-stage knee OA.

Medial Meniscal Extrusion Evaluation With Weight-Bearing Ultrasound: Correlation With MR Imaging Findings and Reported Symptoms: Correlation With MR Imaging Findings and Reported Symptoms

OBJECTIVES

To compare medial meniscal extrusion on weight-bearing ultrasound (US) with supine US and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging correlating with meniscal pathology and reported symptoms.

METHODS

IRB approved study with informed consent. Patients obtaining routine knee MR imaging for suspected knee pathology were prospectively evaluated with supine and weight-bearing US of the medial meniscus. Meniscal extrusion was measured independently by two fellowship-trained musculoskeletal radiologists. Correlation was made to presence or absence of meniscal degeneration or tear on MR imaging, as well as reported symptoms. Statistical significance was calculated via intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and analysis of variance (ANOVA).

RESULTS

Ninety-nine knees from 95 subjects (50 males, 45 females; mean age 45 ± 15 years) were included. Mean medial meniscal extrusion measured at US for a normal meniscus (n = 36) was 0.8 mm when supine, increasing to 1.6 mm on weight-bearing. Mean meniscal extrusion in subjects with mucoid degeneration (n = 20) and those with meniscal tears (n = 43) was 1.6 mm, increasing to 2.3 mm with weight bearing. Inter-reader reliability showed ICC values of 0.853 to 0.940. There was a significant difference in medial meniscal extrusion comparing subjects with a normal medial meniscus at magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and subjects with either meniscal degeneration or tear. There was no significant difference in degree of meniscal extrusion between subjects with meniscal degeneration or tear. There was trend of worsening symptoms and increasing functional limitations moving from normal meniscus to meniscal degeneration to meniscal tear.

CONCLUSIONS

A normal meniscus shows lesser mobility between supine and upright position, than a pathologic meniscus. Both mucoid degeneration and meniscal tear demonstrate extrusion in the supine position, which increases with weight-bearing position.

Clinical significance and management of meniscal extrusion in different knee pathologies: a comprehensive review of the literature and treatment algorithm

The menisci are crescent-shaped, fibrocartilaginous structures that play a crucial role in the load transition and distribution of the contact forces along the tibiofemoral articulation. Meniscal extrusion (ME) is a radiological finding, especially in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, for which there has been growing interest in recent years. ME, in the coronary plane, is defined as the maximum distance of the most distal end of the meniscus from the border of the tibial plateau, where the tibial eminences are the most prominent, without taking into account the osteophytes. Although there is still controversy in the literature in respect of the optimal cutoff value, a threshold of 3 mm is considered significant. ME has no specific clinical finding or sign and it is encountered in many knee pathologies. It is associated with either rapidly progressive knee osteoarthritis or early onset of knee osteoarthritis and increased morbidity. In this review, we delineate the clinical significance of ME in various knee pathologies, as well as when, why and how it should be managed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to elaborate on these topics.

The EFSUMB Guidelines and Recommendations for Musculoskeletal Ultrasound - Part II: Joint Pathologies, Pediatric Applications, and Guided Procedures

The second part of the Guidelines and Recommendations for Musculoskeletal Ultrasound (MSUS), produced under the auspices of EFSUMB, following the same methodology as for Part 1, provides information and recommendations on the use of this imaging modality for joint pathology, pediatric applications, and musculoskeletal ultrasound-guided procedures. Clinical application, practical points, limitations, and artifacts are described and discussed for every joint or procedure. The document is intended to guide clinical users in their daily practice.

Greater medial meniscus extrusion seen on ultrasonography indicates the risk of MRI-detected complete medial meniscus posterior root tear in a Japanese population with knee pain

To elucidate the association between medial meniscus extrusion measured on ultrasonography (MME_US) and the prevalence of medial meniscus posterior root tear detected on magnetic resonance imaging (MMPRT_MRI). We recruited 127 patients (135 knees; 90 females; mean age: 64.4 ± 8.7 years old; mean BMI: 25.5 ± 3.4 kg/m²) in this cross-sectional study. All participants had medial knee pain without a knee trauma or surgery history. Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) severity was evaluated using Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG) scores. Patients with KLG scores 0–1 and ≥ 2 were classified in non-radiographic (non-ROA) and radiographic KOA (ROA) groups, respectively. MME_US was measured with patients in the supine position. Based on fat-suppressed T2-weighted images, MMPRT_MRI was defined as the presence of “Ghost meniscus sign” and “Cleft/truncation sign”, indicating an abnormal high signal intensity of a completely disrupted posterior root. MME_US was compared between MMPRT+ and MMPRT– patients using a non-paired t-test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the optimal cut-off MME_US to predict MMPRT+. The prevalence of MMPRT+ was 31.3% (25/80 knees) and 29.1% (16/55 knees) in the non-ROA and ROA groups. The MME_US of MMPRT+ patients were significantly greater than that of MMPRT– patients in both the non-ROA (5.9 ± 1.4 mm vs. 4.4 ± 1.0 mm, P < 0.001) and ROA (7.8 ± 1.3 mm vs. 6.3 ± 1.3 mm, P < 0.001) groups. ROC curves demonstrated that 5-mm and 7-mm MME_US were the optimal cut-off values in non-ROA (adjusted odds ratio: 6.280; area under the curve [AUC]: 0.809; P < 0.001) and ROA (adjusted odds ratio: 15.003; AUC: 0.797; P = 0.001) groups. In both early non-radiographic and established radiographic KOA stages, a greater MME_US was associated with a higher MMPRT_MRI prevalence.

Reduced serum levels of anti-Mullerian hormone is a putative biomarker of early knee osteoarthritis in middle-aged females at menopausal transition

A recent epidemiological study revealed that the highest prevalence of early knee osteoarthritis (OA) was observed in females aged ≥ 50 years. The major causal factor of early knee OA was sex. Despite the relevance of estrogen in evaluating chondral and bone metabolism in OA, it is not easily clinically monitored because irregular menstrual cycles induce unstable female hormone patterns during menopausal transitions. Anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) has been found to be a new stable biomarker to predict menopause. This study aimed to investigate the association between menopausal transition and early knee OA by using serum biomarkers, with special focus on AMH. A total of 518 female volunteers who participated in the Iwaki cohort study were enrolled and divided into pre-menopause and post-menopause groups. Weight-bearing anterior–posterior knee radiographs were classified by Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grade, and grade ≥ 2 was defined as radiographic knee OA. In participants with KL grades 0 and 1, early knee OA was defined by Luyten’s criteria. AMH, luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, estradiol (pg/ml), prolactin, and testosterone were measured on the female hormones. Bone mineral density at a distal radius was measured. The predictive power of female hormones for early knee OA was estimated by ROC analysis (comparison of area under curve, AUC) and regression analysis. Fifty-two participants (10.0%) were diagnosed with early knee OA and 204 (39.4%) with radiographic knee OA. In 393 (75.9%) females, menopause began. From the ROC analysis in pre-menopausal females, cutoff value of AMH for detecting early knee OA was 0.08 ng/ml (area under curve (AUC), 0.712; 95% CI, 0.527–0.897; p value, 0.025; odds ratio, 8.28). AUCs of other female hormones did not reach the level of AMH (range, 0.513 of prolactine to 0.636 of estradiol). Logistic regression analysis focusing on AMH reduction at menopausal transition showed that the related AMH below 0.08 ng/ml was significantly related to the presence of early knee OA (p = 0.035; odds ratio, 5.55). Reduced serum levels of AMH in middle-aged females were correlated with the presence of early knee OA, which might be a useful serum biomarker.

Determining a Threshold of Medial Meniscal Extrusion for Prediction of Knee Pain and Cartilage Damage Progression Over 4 Years: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative

BACKGROUND. The extent of medial meniscal extrusion (MME) that is associated with structural and symptomatic progression of knee osteoarthritis has not been defined yet. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of our study was to investigate MRI-based thresholds of MME that are associated with structural progression of knee degenerative disease and symptoms over a period of 4 years. METHODS. We studied 328 knees of 235 participants that were randomly selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. MME was quantified on coronal sections of intermediate-weighted MRI sequences obtained at 3 T. Knee pain and cartilage abnormalities were measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scale and the cartilage whole-organ MRI score (WORMS). General estimating equations with logistic regression models were used to correlate baseline MME and changes in pain (WOMAC) and cartilage damage (WORMS). ROC analyses were performed to determine the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). Individual thresholds were determined by maximizing the product of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS. The AUROC for predicting progression of knee pain, medial compartment cartilage damage, and medial tibial cartilage damage were 0.71, 0.70, and 0.72, respectively, and the individual thresholds for MME were 2.5, 2.7, and 2.8 mm. A single threshold of 2.5 mm was determined by maximizing the mean of the product of sensitivity and specificity of the three outcome variables (knee pain progression, medial compartmental cartilage damage progression, and medial tibial cartilage damage progression). CONCLUSION. MME was associated with knee pain and cartilage damage progression over 4 years. A single threshold of 2.5 mm was found to be the most useful threshold for predicting knee pain, medial compartment cartilage damage progression, and tibial cartilage damage progression over 4 years. CLINICAL IMPACT. This threshold could be used to standardize the diagnostic criterion of extrusion and to better characterize the risk for subsequent structural and symptomatic progression of knee osteoarthritis.