Prognostic models for predicting overall survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review

Bellmunt risk score as a survival predictor in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is influenced by numerous individual factors. Despite various proposed prognostic models, the clinical application of these remains limited, probably due to complexity. Our study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the Bellmunt risk score, which is well-known for urothelial carcinoma and easily assessed, in mCRPC patients.

METHODS

The Bellmunt risk score was calculated from three risk factors (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) ≥1, serum hemoglobin <10 g/dL, presence of liver metastases) in 125 patients who received first-line mCRPC treatment between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a modified score was established (one point each for hemoglobin <10 g/dL and the presence of liver metastases added to the ECOG PS). Associations with overall survival (OS) under first- and second-line therapy were tested using Cox regression analyzes, log-rank tests, concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic.

RESULTS

There is a significant correlation between the level of the Bellmunt risk score and shorter OS (hazard ratio: 3.23, 95% confidence interval: 2.06-5.05; log-rank p < 0.001; C-index: 0.724). The semi-quantitative modified risk score showed even better prognostic discrimination (log-rank p < 0.001, C-index: 0.764). The score and its dynamics were also predictive in the second-line setting (log-rank p < 0.001 and = 0.01; C-index: 0.742 and 0.595).

CONCLUSIONS

The Bellmunt risk score is easy to assess and provides useful prognostic information in mCRPC, and can support physicians in their treatment decisions.

Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 is a potent prognostic factor in prostate cancer associated with proliferation and invasion

Prostate cancer is one of the most common malignancies in men, and there is a need to explore novel biomarkers or therapeutic targets. Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) is expressed not only in antigen-presenting cells but also types of human malignancies, contributing to disease progression, although its clinical significance or functional role in prostate cancer remains unclear. Therefore, we immunolocalized TLR4 in 117 prostate cancer tissues to address its clinicopathological significance. Additionally, we performed in vitro assays to examine the effects of TLR4 on proliferation and migration of prostate cancer cell lines (LNCaP, DU-145 and PC-3). TLR4 immunoreactivity was predominantly detected in the cytoplasm of prostate cancer cells, and it was positively associated with proliferation and invasion abilities, as well as Gleason score. Subsequent in vitro experiments revealed that the inhibition of TLR4 by Sparstolonin B (SsnB) significantly suppressed the proliferation and migration of LNCaP, DU-145 and PC-3 cells. Therefore, we concluded that TLR4 was a potent prognostic factor associated with proliferation and invasion, and it might serve as a therapeutic target in prostate cancer.

High-Dimensional Analyses Reveal IL15 Enhances Activation of Sipuleucel-T Lymphocyte Subsets and Reverses Immunoresistance

Sipuleucel-T (sip-T) is the only FDA-approved autologous cellular immunotherapy for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). To elucidate parameters of the response profile to this therapy, we report high-dimensional analyses of sip-T using cytometry by time of flight (CyTOF) and show a lymphoid predominance, with CD3+ T cells constituting the highest proportion (median ∼60%) of sip-T, followed by B cells, and natural killer (NK) and NKT cells. We hypothesized that treatment of sip-T with homeostatic cytokines known to activate/expand effector lymphocytes could augment efficacy against prostate tumors. Of the cytokines tested, IL15 was the most effective at enhancing activation and proliferation of effector lymphocytes, as well as augmenting tumor cytotoxicity in vitro. Co-culture of sip-T with IL15 and control or prostate-relevant antigens showed substantial activation and expansion of CD8+ T cells and NKT cells in an antigen-specific manner. Adoptive transfer of IL15-treated sip-T into NSG mice resulted in more potent prostate tumor growth inhibition compared with control sip-T. Evaluation of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes revealed a 2- to 14-fold higher influx of sip-T and a significant increase in IFNγ producing CD8+ T cells and NKT cells within the tumor microenvironment in the IL15 group. In conclusion, we put forward evidence that IL15 treatment can enhance the functional antitumor immunity of sip-T, providing rationale for combining IL15 or IL15 agonists with sip-T to treat patients with mCRPC.

Natural killer cell activity in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer patients treated with enzalutamide

Metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is still the lethal stage for the whole spectrum of prostate cancer disease. Even though different treatment options have been introduced in the last decade with a significant survival improvement for this population, a lack of more reliable prognostic and predictive markers is still one of the main clinical challenges in management of mCRPC. The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between Natural Killer cell activity (NKA) and both treatment effect and outcomes in patients with mCRPC treated with enzalutamide. A total of 87 patients with mCRPC treated with enzalutamide as the first line treatment were enrolled. NKA was estimated at baseline and prior to each treatment cycle. Endpoints included both treatment effect with biochemical response (BR), biochemical progression (BP) and radiological progression (RP), as well as outcome data with overall survival (OS), radiologic progression free survival (rPFS), and time to next treatment (TTT). At the time of BR, interferon-gamma (IFNγ) decreased significantly compared to levels detected at baseline (z-score = 2.33, p = 0.019). Regarding outcome data, the whole cohort was divided into four groups according to the change of IFNγ level during the first 3 cycles of enzalutamide treatment. In group 1 (n = 42) the IFNγ level remained within a normal range (≥ 250 pg/mL),while in group 2 (n = 7) it increased from an abnormal (< 250 pg/mL) to a normal level. In group 3 (n = 13) it dropped to an abnormal level, and it remained at an abnormal level during treatment in group 4 (n = 17). Patients in group 2 showed the worst prognosis with shorter both rPFS and TTT (HR 4.30, p = 0.037; and HR 6.82, p = 0.011, respectively). In this study inverse correlations between NKA and both treatment response and outcomes was observed in mCRPC patients receiving enzalutamide, suggesting an unfavourable role of NK cells in the late stage of PCa.

Comparative analysis of multiorgan toxicity induced by long term use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs

The constant use of disease modifying anti rheumatic drugs affects the functioning of multiple organs inside the body. Some drugs are more toxic than others. The present case control investigation was designed to evaluate the comparative toxicity of methotrexate and leflunomide on multiple organs in rheumatoid arthritis patients. For this purpose, 100 subjects with confirmed rheumatoid arthritis condition were recruited form tertiary care center. Whereas 50 age matched controls were recruited from the local healthy population. Participants of the study were categorized into three groups with equal numbers of subjects in each group (n = 50). Group 1 comprised rheumatoid arthritis patients on methotrexate treatment, group 2 included rheumatoid arthritis patients on leflunomide treatment and group 3 were healthy subjects. Cardiac and respiratory response was evaluated by monitoring blood pressure, pulse and breathing rate and spot oxygen saturation. Stress on liver was estimated by measuring change in liver enzymes (alanine transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alkaline phosphatase) and total bilirubin. While, degree of renal impairment was assessed by calculating glomerular filtration rate, serum creatinine, urinary urea and uric acid. For statistical interpretation, data was subjected to independent student "t" test and analysis of variance (one way ANOVA) for mean variations. Both methotrexate and leflunomide elevated the systolic and diastolic blood pressure and pulse rate. Leflunomide maintained the oxygen saturation at 96.7%, whereas methotrexate exerted serious effect on spot oxygen saturation by reducing it significantly to 93.25% than healthy subjects. Hepatotoxicity manifested by sustained use of leflunomide was perceptible in this study group. Whereas, both methotrexate and leflunomide influenced renal function as indicated by marked increase in blood urea nitrogen (P = 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.007) and reduced glomerular filtration rate (P<0.0001). However, use of methotrexate demonstrated significant (P<0.0001) reduction in serum uric acid and urinary urea levels. Methotrexate is more injurious to heart, blood vessels and kidneys than leflunomide but it is less noxious to hepatic parenchyma. Contrarily, leflunomide usage is comparatively better option for respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal health but dangerous to liver. Thus, a single drug can't be prescribed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis for longer management of arthritis patients.

Toward precision medicine: Development and validation of a machine learning based decision support system for optimal sequencing in castration-resistant prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION

Selecting a patient-specific sequencing strategy to maximize survival outcomes is a clinically unmet need for patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). We developed and validated an artificial intelligence-based decision support system (DSS) to guide optimal sequencing strategy selection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinicopathological data of 46 covariates were retrospectively collected from 801 patients diagnosed with CRPC at 2 high-volume institutions between February 2004 and March 2021. Cox-proportional hazards regression survival (Cox) modeling in extreme gradient boosting (XGB) was used to perform survival analysis for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and overall mortality (OM) according to the use of abiraterone acetate, cabazitaxel, docetaxel, and enzalutamide. The models were further stratified into first-, second-, and third-line models that each provided CSM and OM estimates for each line of treatment. The performances of the XGB models were compared with those of the Cox models and random survival forest (RSF) models in terms of Harrell's C-index.

RESULTS

The XGB models showed greater predictive performance for CSM and OM compared to the RSF and Cox models. C-indices of 0.827, 0.807, and 0.748 were achieved for CSM in the first-, second-, and third-lines of treatment, respectively, while C-indices of 0.822, 0.813, and 0.729 were achieved for OM regarding each line of treatment, respectively. An online DSS was developed to provide visualization of individualized survival outcomes according to each line of sequencing strategy.

CONCLUSION

Our DSS can be used in clinical practice by physicians and patients as a visualized tool to guide the sequencing strategy of CRPC agents.

Prognostic Impact of Sarcopenia in Patients with Advanced Prostate Carcinoma: A Systematic Review

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common cancer in men and the fifth leading cause of death from cancer. The possibility of sarcopenia being a prognostic factor in advanced PCa patients has recently become a subject of interest. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of sarcopenia in advanced prostate carcinoma. A systematic review was conducted in Medline, EMBASE, and Web of Science (March, 2021). The quality of studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Meta-analyses for overall, cancer-specific, and progression-free survival were performed. Nine studies (n = 1659) were included. Sarcopenia was borderline associated with a shorter overall survival (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.44, P = 0.04, I2 = 43%) but was significantly associated with progression-free survival (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.06, P < 0.01; k = 3; n = 588). Available evidence supports sarcopenia as an important prognostic factor of progression-free survival in patients with advanced PCa. However, sarcopenia has a weak association with a shorter overall survival. The evidence on the role of sarcopenia in prostate-cancer-specific survival is insufficient and supports the need for further research. Patient summary: The literature was reviewed to determine whether the loss of muscle mass (sarcopenia) affects the survival in patients with advanced PCa. Patients with advanced PCa and sarcopenia were found to have a shorter progression-free survival (the length of time during and after treatment of a cancer that the patient lives with the disease but it does not get worse), but sarcopenia did not have much influence on the overall survival and cancer-specific survival (the length of time from either the date of diagnosis or the start of treatment to the date of death due to the cancer).

Local Wisdom and Diversity of Medicinal Plants in Cha Miang Forest in Mae Kampong Village, Chiang Mai, Thailand, and Their Potential for Use as Osteoprotective Products

“People-Forest-Miang” communities are villages located in the cultivated area of Camellia sinensis var. assamica, or Cha Miang, in northern Thailand. Cha Miang forests are a form of agriculture relying on forest-rich bioresources. This study focuses on a survey of the diversity of medicinal plants used by “People-Forest-Miang” communities in Mae Kampong Village, Chiang Mai, Thailand. The results demonstrated that 73 species of medicinal plants were used to prevent and treat various ailments. The highest number of species (30.14%) was used for musculoskeletal system disorders, followed by digestive system disorders (21.92%) and unspecified medicinal disorders (15.07%). The alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is the most widely recognized biochemical marker for osteoblast activity. The ALP activity of ethanol and deionized water extracts of the nine selected medicinal plants used for musculoskeletal system disorders were examined in the MG63 cell line. The results showed that the numerous water extracts, including MKP1, MKP2, MKP5, MKP6, MKP7, MKP8, and MKP9, and the ethanolic extracts—namely, MKP2, MKP3, MKP7, and MKP9—significantly increased ALP activity in the MG-63 cell line. The findings indicate that some medicinal plants may be further studied for active chemicals and developed as natural active pharmaceutical ingredients for osteoprotective products.

Prognostic significance of risk stratification in CHAARTED and LATITUDE studies among Japanese men with castration-resistant prostate cancer

Background

The CHAARTED and LATITUDE trials demonstrated a survival benefit of docetaxel and abiraterone for hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. In this study, we examined the impact of the risk stratification criteria used in the CHAARTED and LATITUDE trials on the prognosis of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). We also tested whether these risk stratification criteria could help in selecting effective initial treatment for CRPC.

Method

Japanese patients with CRPC who were treated with docetaxel or androgen receptor pathway inhibitors such as abiraterone acetate or enzalutamide between 2014 and 2018 were included in this study. Clinicopathological factors, progression-free survival, and overall survival were investigated.

Results

Of 215 patients, 110 men (51.2%) and 93 men (43.3%) were grouped as high volume by CHAARTED criteria and high risk by LATITUDE criteria, respectively. Median progression-free survival was 10.3/4.5 months (P < 0.0001) for low/high volume (CHAARTED criteria) and 9.9/4.8 months (P = 0.0032) for low/high risk (LATITUDE criteria). The median overall survival was 44.8/17.4 months (P < 0.0001) for low/high volume (CHAARTED criteria) and 37.4/17.4 months (P = 0.0011) for low/high risk (LATITUDE criteria). The prognostic impact of CHAARTED and LATITUDE criteria was comparable between androgen receptor pathway inhibitors and docetaxel as first-line treatment for CRPC.

Conclusion

The CHAARTED and LATITUDE criteria were prognostic, but not useful to discriminate the therapeutic outcome between androgen receptor pathway inhibitors and docetaxel for CRPC.

177 Lu-PSMA-617 radioligand therapy of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: Initial 254-patient results from a prospective registry (REALITY Study)

Purpose

Preliminary data from retrospective analyses and recent data from large randomized controlled trials suggest safety and efficacy of radioligand therapy (RLT) targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Limited data on this modality have been published regarding large samples treated in everyday practice.

Methods

We analyzed prospectively collected registry data regarding lutetium-177 (¹⁷⁷Lu)-PSMA-617 RLT of 254 consecutive men with mCRPC seen in everyday academic practice. Since ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA-617 was experimental salvage treatment following failure of individually appropriate conventional therapies, patients were generally elderly and heavily pretreated (median age 70 years; prior taxanes 74.0%, 188/254), with late–end-stage disease (visceral metastasis in 32.7%, 83/254). Primary endpoints were response to RLT, defined by changes from baseline serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, PSA progression-free survival (PSA-PFS), and overall survival (OS), estimated with Kaplan–Meier statistics, and caregiver-reported and patient-reported safety. Unless noted, median (minimum–maximum) values are given.

Results

Patients received 3 (1–13) ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA-617 activities (6.5 [2.5–11.6] GBq/cycle) every 5.7 (3.0–11.0) weeks. Best response was ≥ 50% PSA reduction in 52.0% of patients (132/254). PSA-PFS was 5.5 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 4.4–6.6) months and OS, 14.5 (95%CI 11.5–17.5) months. In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards modeling, response to the initial ≤ 2 RLT administrations was the strongest significant prognosticator related to OS (hazard ratio 3.7 [95%CI 2.5–5.5], p < 0.001). No RLT-related deaths or treatment discontinuations occurred; the most frequent RLT-related Grade 3/4 adverse events were anemia (18/254 patients, 7.1%), thrombocytopenia (11/254, 4.3%), and lymphopenia (7/254, 2.8%). RLT-related xerostomia, all grade 1/2, was noted in 53/254 (20.9%).

Conclusions

In a large, prospectively observed “real-world” cohort with late-stage/end-stage mCRPC and conventional treatment failure, ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA-617 RLT was effective, safe, and well-tolerated. Early biochemical disease control by such therapy was associated with better OS. Prospective study earlier in the disease course may be warranted.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05525-7.

Prognostic value of ECOG performance status and Gleason score in the survival of castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status and Gleason score are commonly investigated factors for overall survival (OS) in men with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). However, there is a lack of consistency regarding their prognostic or predictive value for OS. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis to assess the associations of ECOG performance status and Gleason score with OS in CRPC patients and compare the two markers in patients under different treatment regimens or with different chemotherapy histories. A systematic literature review of monotherapy studies in CRPC patients was conducted in the PubMed database until May 2019. The data from 8247 patients in 34 studies, including clinical trials and real-world data, were included in our meta-analysis. Of these, twenty studies reported multivariate results and were included in our main analysis. CRPC patients with higher ECOG performance statuses (≥ 2) had a significantly increased mortality risk than those with lower ECOG performance statuses (<2), hazard ratio (HR): 2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.68-2.62, and P < 0.001. The synthesized HR of OS stratified by Gleason score was 1.01, with a 95% CI of 0.62-1.67 (Gleason score ≥ 8 vs <8). Subgroup analysis showed that there was no significant difference in pooled HRs for patients administered taxane chemotherapy (docetaxel and cabazitaxel) and androgen-targeting therapy (abiraterone acetate and enzalutamide) or for patients with different chemotherapy histories. ECOG performance status was identified as a significant prognostic factor in CRPC patients, while Gleason score showed a weak prognostic value for OS based on the available data in our meta-analysis.

Nomogram predicting survival to assist decision-making of radical prostatectomy in patients with metastatic prostate cancer

Background

Radical prostatectomy (RP) has heterogeneous effects on survival of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa). A reliable model to predict risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and the potential benefit derived from RP is needed.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with mPCa were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) and categorized in RP versus nonlocal treatment (NLT). Based on the Fine and Gray competing risks model in 8,463 NLT patients, a nomogram was created to predict CSM in mPCa patients. Decision tree analysis was then utilized for patient stratification. The effect of RP was evaluated among 3 different subgroups.

Results

A total of 8,863 patients were identified for analysis. Four hundred (4.5%) patients received RP. The 5-year cumulative incidence of CSM was 52.4% for the entire patients. Based on nomogram scores, patients were sorted into three risk groups using decision tree analysis. In the low- and intermediate-risk group, RP was found to be significantly correlated with a 21.7% risk reduction of 5-year CSM, and 25.0% risk reduction of 5-year CSM, respectively, whereas RP was not associated with CSM in high-risk group (hazard ratio =0.748, 95% confidence interval 0.485–1.150; P=0.190).

Conclusions

We developed a novel nomogram and corresponding patient stratification predicting CSM in mPCa patients. A newly identified patient subgroup with low-, and intermediate-risk of CSM might benefit more from RP. These results should be further validated and improved by ongoing prospective trials.

The Prognostic Value of Quantitative Bone SPECT/CT Before 223Ra Treatment in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Radiolabeled bisphosphonates such as ^99mTc-3,3-diphosphono-1,2-propanodicarboxylic acid (^99mTc-DPD) typically show intense uptake in skeletal metastases from metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Extensive bone involvement is regarded as a risk factor for mCRPC patients treated with ²²³Ra-dichloride (²²³Ra). The aim of this study was to quantify ^99mTc-DPD uptake by means of SPECT/CT before ²²³Ra and compare the results with the feasibility of treatment and overall survival (OS). Methods: Sixty consecutive mCRPC patients were prospectively included in this study. SPECT/CT of the central skeleton covering the skull to the mid-femoral level was performed before the first cycle of ²²³Ra. The bone compartment was defined by means of low-dose CT. Emission data were corrected for scatter, attenuation, and decay supplemented by resolution recovery using dedicated software. The Kaplan-Meier estimator, U test, and Cox regression analysis were used for statistics. Results: Total ^99mTc-DPD uptake of the central skeleton varied between 11% and 56% of injected dose (%ID) or between 1.8 and 10.5 %ID/1,000 mL of bone volume (%ID/L). SUV_mean ranged from 1.9 to 7.4, whereas the SUV_max range was 18-248. Patients unable to complete ²²³Ra treatment because of progression and/or cytopenia (n = 23) showed significantly higher uptake (31.9 vs. 25.4 %ID and 6.0 vs. 4.7 %ID/L; P < 0.02). OS after ²²³Ra (median, 15.2 mo) was reduced to 7.3 mo in cases of skeletal uptake that was 26 %ID or higher, as compared with 30.8 mo if lower than 26 %ID (P = 0.008). Similar results were obtained for %ID/L and SUV_mean SUV_max did not correlate with survival. %ID/L was identified as an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio, 1.381 per unit), along with number of previous treatment lines. Conclusion: Quantitative SPECT/CT of bone scans performed at baseline is prognostic for survival in mCRPC patients treated with ²²³Ra.

A critical appraisal of the clinical applicability and risk of bias of the predictive models for mortality and recurrence in patients with oropharyngeal cancer: Systematic review

The use of predictive models is becoming widespread. However, these models should be developed appropriately (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies [CHARMS] and Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST] statements). Concerning mortality/recurrence in oropharyngeal cancer, we are not aware of any systematic reviews of the predictive models. We carried out a systematic review of the MEDLINE/EMBASE databases of those predictive models. In these models, we analyzed the 11 domains of the CHARMS statement and the risk of bias and applicability, using the PROBAST tool. Six papers were finally included in the systematic review and all of them presented high risk of bias and several limitations in the statistical analysis. The applicability was satisfactory in five out of six studies. None of the models could be considered ready for use in clinical practice.

A systematic review of predictive models for recurrence and mortality in patients with tongue cancer

INTRODUCTION

Predictive models must meet clinical/methodological standards to be used in clinical practice. However, no critique of those models relating to mortality/recurrence in tongue cancer has been done bearing in mind the accepted standards.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review evaluating the methodology and clinical applicability of predictive models for mortality/recurrence in tongue cancer published in MEDLINE and Scopus. For each model, we analysed (domains of CHARMS, Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) the following: source of data, participants, outcome to be predicted, candidate predictors, sample size, missing data, model development, model performance, model evaluation, results and interpretation and discussion.

RESULTS

We found two papers that included eight prediction models, neither of which adhered to the CHARMS recommendations.

CONCLUSION

Given the quality of tongue cancer models, new studies following current consensus are needed to develop predictive tools applicable in clinical practice.