Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

Role of local absorbing aerosols in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Absorbing aerosols and their impact on the Indian monsoon system is highly complex and demands more scientific understanding. Our study using a chemistry-coupled regional climate model (RegCM 4.5) with idealized experiments observed that natural and anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (i.e., dust and carbonaceous aerosols) reduce monsoon precipitation in a seasonal time scale. More than 1 mm day-1 decline in mean summertime rainfall was observed over parts of the central Indian region and Indo-Gangetic plane for dust aerosol. A substantial reduction in the land-sea pressure gradient and lower tropospheric moisture distribution were found to control the observed modulation in rainfall. Near-surface wind circulation responded distinctly to natural (dust) and anthropogenic (carbonaceous) aerosols. The dust forcing weakened the monsoon trough by creating an anomalous anticyclonic circulation. The Northern Arabian Sea acted as a moisture source for the carbonaceous aerosol forcing. Intraseasonal rainfall over central India appeared to have a sharp reduction for dust forcing during early June, with a moderate increase for carbonaceous aerosols. Such quantification is essential for understanding the impact of aerosol forcing on regional climate change and the water cycle and has implications for emissions management and mitigation policies.

Increased aerosol scattering contributes to the recent monsoon rainfall decrease over the Gangetic Plain

The climate effects of atmospheric aerosols remain highly uncertain. Part of the uncertainty arises from the fact that scattering and absorbing aerosols have distinct or even opposite effects. Thus their relative fraction is critical in determining the overall aerosol climate effect. This study combines observations and global model simulations to demonstrate that changes in the fraction of scattering and absorbing aerosols play an important role in driving the monsoon precipitation decrease over northern India since the 1980s, especially over the Gangetic Basin. Increased aerosol scattering, or decreased aerosol absorption, manifested as a significant increase of aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), causes strong cooling in the upper atmosphere. This suppresses vertical convection and thus reduces precipitation. Further analysis of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multi-model-mean historical simulation shows that failing to capture the SSA increase over northern India is likely an important cause of the simulated precipitation trend bias in this area.

Variability of ambient black carbon concentration in the Central Himalaya and its assessment over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

During 2015-2018, eight black carbon (BC) monitoring sites were established in Nepal and Bhutan to fill a significant data gap regarding BC measurement in Central Himalaya. This manuscript analyzes and presents data from these eight stations and one additional station on the Tibetan plateau (TP). Complex topography, varied emission sources, and atmospheric transport pathways significantly impacted the BC concentrations across these stations, with annual mean concentrations varying from 36 ng m^-3 to 45,737 ng m^-3. Higher annual mean concentrations (5609 ± 4515 ng m^-3) were recorded at low-altitude sites than in other locations, with seasonal concentrations highest in the winter (7316 ± 2541 ng m^-3). In contrast, the annual mean concentrations were lowest at high-altitude sites (376 ± 448 ng m^-3); the BC concentrations at these sites peaked during the pre-monsoon season (930 ± 685 ng m^-3). Potential source contributions to the total observed BC were analyzed using the absorption angstrom exponent (AAE). AAE analysis showed the dominance of biomass burning sources (>50 %), except in Kathmandu. By combining our data with previously published literature, we put our measurements in perspective by presenting a comprehensive assessment of BC concentrations and their variability over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The BC levels in all three geographic regions, high, mid, and low altitude significantly influenced by the persistent seasonal meteorology. However, the mid-altitude stations were substantially affected by valley dynamics and urbanization. The low-altitude stations experienced high BC concentrations during the winter and post-monsoon seasons. Concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) and frequency analyses revealed the dominance of long-range transported pollution during winter over HKH, from west to east. South Asian sources remained significant during the monsoon season. During pre- and post-monsoon, the local, regional, and long-distance pollution varied depending on the location of the receptor site.

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

An assessment of the impact of Indian summer monsoon droughts on atmospheric aerosols and associated radiative forcing at a semi-arid station in peninsular India

A continuing increase in droughts/floods in Asian monsoon regions and worsening air quality due to aerosols are the two biggest threats to the health and well being of over 60% of the world's population. This study focuses on in-situ observations of atmospheric aerosols and their impact on shortwave direct aerosol radiative forcing (SDARF) during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) from 2015 to 2020 over a semi-arid station in Southern India. The Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to identify the droughts and normal monsoon years. Based on the SPI index, 2015, 2016, and 2018 were considered the drought monsoon years, while 2017, 2019, and 2020 were chosen as the normal monsoon years. During the drought monsoon years (normal monsoon years), the monthly mean black carbon (BC) was 1.17 ± 0.25 (0.72 ± 0.18), 1.02 ± 0.31 (0.64 ± 0.17), 1.02 ± 0.38 (0.74 ± 0.28), and 1.28 ± 0.35 μg/m³ (0.88 ± 0.21 μg/m³), for June, July, August and September respectively. The lower BC concentration during the normal monsoon years is mainly due to the enhanced wet-removal rates by high rainfall over the measurement location. In July, there was a high ventilation coefficient (VC) and low concentration of BC, while in September, low VC, and a high concentration of BC was observed in both the drought and the normal monsoon years. In addition, a plane-parallel radiative transfer model was used to estimate shortwave direct aerosol radiative forcing for composite and without BC at various surfaces, including the surface (SUF), atmosphere (ATM), and top of the atmosphere (TOA). During the drought monsoon years (normal monsoon years), the estimated monthly mean ATM forcing was 17.6 ± 2.4 (13.9 ± 2.1), 17.5 ± 7.5 (12.7 ± 4.4), 17.2 ± 4.0 (13.5 ± 1.9), and 17.4 ± 2.8 Wm^-2 (14.6 ± 0.7 Wm^-2) for June, July, August, and September, respectively. During the drought monsoon years, the estimated BC forcing was substantially larger (8.8 ± 2.6 Wm^-2) than that of normal monsoon years (6.0 ± 1.5 Wm^-2). It indicates the important role of absorbing BC aerosols during the drought monsoon years in introducing additional heat to the lower atmosphere, particularly over peninsular India.

Sensitivity of Summertime Convection to Aerosol Loading and Properties in the United Arab Emirates

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate convection–aerosol interactions in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a summertime convective event. Both an idealized and climatological aerosol distributions are considered. The convection on 14 August 2013 was triggered by the low-level convergence of the cyclonic circulation associated with the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) and the daytime sea-breeze circulation. Numerical experiments reveal a high sensitivity to aerosol properties. In particular, replacing 20% of the rural aerosols by carbonaceous particles has a comparable impact on the surface radiative fluxes to increasing the aerosol loading by a factor of 10. In both cases, the UAE-averaged net shortwave flux is reduced by ~90 W m−2 while the net longwave flux increases by ~51 W m−2. However, when the aerosol composition is changed, WRF generates 20% more precipitation than when the aerosol loading is increased, due to a broader and weaker AHL. The surface downward and upward shortwave and upward longwave radiation fluxes are found to scale linearly with the aerosol loading. An increase in the amount of aerosols also leads to drier conditions and a delay in the onset of convection due to changes in the AHL.

The influence of dusts on radiation and temperature over the eastern Asia with a regional climate model

In order to investigate the climate effects of dusts, a regional climate model (RegCM 4.6) with the dust scheme was used to simulate the direct radiative forcing and air temperature response at 2 m near surface of dusts over the eastern Asia. Two sets of experiments were conducted, one with and one without dust aerosols. The experiment covered the main dust occurrence months from March to May for 8 years (2011-2018), and the simulation results were evaluated against ground station, reanalysis and satellite data. The model captured the spatiotemporal distribution of dust AOD and mass loading over the eastern Asia. However, it tended to underestimate the dust AOD and mass loading over the downwind of the dust source region and the Taklimakan Desert, and overestimate them over the north Xinjiang. The direct net radiative forcing including shortwave and longwave was up to -20 W·m^-2 at the surface and -10 W·m^-2 at the TOA over the dust source region due to the dominant negative shortwave forcing. The only exception of positive forcing at the TOA was observed along the western boundaries of the Tibetan Plateau due to the semi-persistent ice and snow cover. The dusts tended to warm the atmosphere more than 18 W·m^-2 and cool the surface locally up to -0.7 °C. Among the 5 sub-areas, the largest averaged regional direct radiative forcing induced by dusts appeared over the central Inner Mongolia in May with the value of -3.0 ± 2.1, -12.2 ± 4.1 and 9.2 ± 4.4 W·m^-2 at the TOA, surface and in the atmosphere, respectively. The results indicated that the model simulation for dusts should be further improved and the dust effects should be included in the estimates of climate change over the eastern Asia.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Impact of snow-darkening by deposition of light-absorbing aerosols on snow cover in the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau and influence on the Asian Summer monsoon: A possible mechanism for the Blanford Hypothesis

The impact of snow darkening by deposition of light absorbing aerosols (LAAs) on snow cover over the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau (HTP) and influence on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5). We find that during April-May-June, deposition of LAAs on snow leads to a reduction in surface albedo, initiating a sequence of feedback processes, starting with increased net surface solar radiation, rapid snowmelt in HTP and warming of the surface and upper troposphere, followed by enhanced low-level southwesterlies and increased dust loading over the Himalayas-Indo-Gangetic Plain. The warming is amplified by increased dust aerosol heating, and subsequently amplified by latent heating from enhanced precipitation over the Himalaya foothills and northern India, via the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) effect during June-July-August. The reduced snow cover in the HTP anchors the enhanced heating over the Tibetan Plateau and its southern slopes, in conjunction with an enhancement of the Tibetan Anticyclone, and the development of an anomalous Rossby wavetrain over East Asia, leading to weakening of the subtropical westerly jet, and northward displacement and intensification of the Mei-Yu rainbelt. Our results suggest that atmosphere-land heating induced by LAAs, particularly desert dust play a fundamental role in physical processes underpinning the snow-monsoon relationship proposed by Blanford more than a century ago.

How light absorbing properties of organic aerosol modify the Asian summer monsoon rainfall?

Light absorbing aerosols not only contribute to Earth's radiative balance but also influence regional climate by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. Following recent suggestions that organic aerosols (OAs) absorb substantial amount of solar radiation, we examine the role of light absorbing properties of OA on Asian summer monsoon rainfall redistribution using observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiment. Results suggest that the enhanced light absorption by OA in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are associated with the advance of the Indian summer monsoon in May and the southward shift of East Asian summer monsoon rain band in June. The rainfall redistribution in May is induced by elevated orographic effect with a warm-core upper-level anticyclone and surface warming of 1-2°C over the Tibetan Plateau whereas that of the East Asian summer monsoon in June is formed by stable conditions associated with surface cooling and atmospheric warming around 30°N.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870's to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS) [Lau and Kim, 2015]. The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellar overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Rainfall characteristics analyses indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.