Influence of sex, age and race on coronary and heart failure events in patients with diabetes and post-acute coronary syndrome

Representativeness in randomised clinical trials supporting acute coronary syndrome guidelines

AIMS

Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are published to guide the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to critically appraise the representativeness and standard of care of randomised clinical trials (RCTs) supporting CPGs for ACS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

American and European CPGs for ST- and non-ST-elevation ACS were screened to extract all references (n = 2128) and recommendations (n = 600). Among the 407 primary publications of RCTs (19.1%), there were 52.6 and 73.2% recruiting patients in North America and Europe, respectively, whereas other regions were largely under-represented (e.g. 25.3% RCTs recruited in Asia). There was 68.6% RCTs enrolling patient with ACS, whereas the remaining 31.4% did not enrol any patient with ACS. There was under-representation of some important subgroups, including elderly, female (29.9%), and non-white patients (<20%). The incidence and type of reperfusion reported in these RCTs were not reflective of current clinical practice (the percentage of patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) among all RCTs was 42.7%; whereas for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction patients, the number of participants who underwent fibrinolysis was 3.3-fold higher than those who underwent primary PCI). All-cause mortality in these RCTs was 11.9% in RCTs with a follow-up ≤ 1 year.

CONCLUSION

Randomised clinical trials supporting CPGs for ACS are not fully representative of the diversity of the ACS population and their current standard of care. While some of these issues with representativeness may be explained by how evidence has been accrued over time, efforts should be made by trialists to ensure that the evidence supporting CPGs is representative of the wider ACS population.

Acute Coronary Syndrome Presenting during On- and Off-Hours: Is There a Difference in a Tertiary Cardiovascular Center?

Background and Objectives: ACS presents an acute manifestation of coronary artery disease and its treatment is based on timely interventional diagnostics and PCI. It has been known that the treatment and the outcomes are not the same for all the patients with ACS during the working day, depending on the availability of the procedures and staff. The aim of the study was to explore the differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes in patients admitted for ACS during on- and off-hours. Materials and Methods: The retrospective study included 1873 consecutive ACS patients admitted to a tertiary, university hospital that underwent coronary angiography and intervention. On-hours were defined from Monday to Friday from 07:30 h to 14:30 h, while the rest was considered off-hours. Results: There were more males in the off-hours group (on-hours 475 (56%) vs. off-hours 635 (62%); p = 0.011), while previous MI was more frequent in the on-hours group (on 250 (30%) vs. off 148 (14%); p < 0.001). NSTEMI was more frequent during on-hours (on 164 (19%) vs. off 55 (5%); p < 0.001), while STEMI was more frequent during off-hours (on 585 (69%) vs. off 952 (93%); p < 0.001). Patients admitted during on-hours had more multivessel disease (MVD) (on 485 (57%) vs. off 489 (48%); p = 0.006), as well as multivessel PCI (on 187 (22%) vs. off 171 (16%); p = 0.002), while radial access was preferred in off-hours patients (on 692 (82%) vs. off 883 (86%); p = 0.004). Left main PCI was performed with similar frequency in both groups (on 37 (4%) vs. off 35 (3%); p = 0.203). Death occurred with similar frequency in both groups (on 17 (2.0%) vs. off 26 (2.54%); p = 0.404), while major adverse cardio-cerebral events (MACCEs) were more frequent in the on-hours group (on 105 (12.4%) vs. off 70 (6.8%); p = 0.039) probably due to the more frequent repeated PCI (on 49 (5.8%) vs. off 27 (2.6%); p = 0.035). Conclusions: Patients admitted for ACS during working hours in a tertiary hospital present with more complex CAD, have more demanding interventions, and experience more MACCEs during follow-up mostly due to myocardial infarctions and repeated procedures.

Risk stratification and predictive value of serum sodium fluctuation for adverse prognosis in acute coronary syndrome patients

BACKGROUND

Serum sodium fluctuation (SF) as an indicator of the extent of changes in serum sodium is associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients. However, there is no consensus on diagnostic criteria for SF, and its impact on the outcome of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains uncertain. We defined SF and assessed its association with adverse prognosis in hospitalized ACS patients.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ACS were consecutively recruited. The serum SF rate (SFR) was defined as the ratio of the difference between the highest and lowest serum sodium levels during hospitalization to the initial serum sodium level on admission. The Cox proportional hazards model was performed to evaluate the association between SFR and mortality. The dose-response relationships of SFR with mortality was characterized by restricted cubic splines (RCS) model. The predictive performance of SF for mortality was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).

RESULTS

The study retrospectively enrolled 1856 ACS patients, of which 36 (1.94%) patients dead within 1 year. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that SFR was independently associated with higher risk of 1-year mortality (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.111-1.244, P < 0.001). RCS analysis showed the optimal threshold for SFR was 5%, and the 1-year cumulative mortality was higher in the abnormal SF group (SFR ≥ 5%) compared with the normal SF group (SFR < 5%, P < 0.01). The AUCs of SF for predicting mortality within 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year were 0.842 (95% CI: 0.781-0.904), 0.830 (95% CI:0.736-0.926), 0.703 (95% CI:0.595--0.811), respectively. Even in patients with normal baseline serum sodium, abnormal SF group demonstrated a significantly higher 1-year mortality compared to normal SF group (HR = 4.955, 95% CI: 1.919-12.795).

CONCLUSION

The SFR during hospitalization is an adequate predictor of adverse outcomes in ACS patients, independent of serum sodium level at admission. Additional research is warranted to ascertain whether interventions targeting SF confer measurable clinical benefits.

Nomogram to predict the incidence of new-onset heart failure after acute coronary syndrome among women

Background

Although great progress has been made in caring for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), the incidence of heart failure (HF) after discharge remains high after ACS.

Aims

We aimed to investigate the risk predictors for new-onset HF and build a simple nomogram to optimize the clinical management of female patients.

Methods

The clinical data of 319 female patients with ACS between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2022, were obtained from the Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out to build the prediction model among all participants and then verified by 10-fold cross-validation. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the prediction model were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.

Results

This study analyzed 15 potential independent risk predictors of new-onset HF in 319 female patients with ACS. The incidence of HF onset was 23.2%. The following 5 independent risk predictors were filtered out as most relevant for predicting 12-month HF onset: left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 60.5%, high-density lipoprotein ≤ 1.055 mmol/L, human epididymal protein 4 > 69.6 pmol/L, creatinine > 71.95 µmol/L, and diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI).

Conclusion

Our nomogram, which used five easily obtained clinical variables, could be a useful tool to help identify female individuals with ACS who are at high risk of developing HF after discharge and facilitate communication between female patients and physicians.

Predicting Acute Onset of Heart Failure Complicating Acute Coronary Syndrome: An Explainable Machine Learning Approach

Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are at high risk of heart failure (HF). Early prediction and management of HF among ACS patients are essential to provide timely and cost-effective care. The aim of this study is to train and evaluate a machine learning model to predict the acute onset of HF subsequent to ACS. A total of 1,028 patients with ACS admitted to Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital between October 2019 and May 2022 were included in this study. 128 clinical features were ranked using Shapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) values and the top 20% of features were selected for building a balanced random forest (BRF) model. We compared the discriminatory capability of BRF with linear logistic regression (LLR). In the hold-out test set, the BRF model predicted subsequent HF with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.75-0.77), sensitivity of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96-0.97), positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72-0.74), negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.60-0.66), and accuracy of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72-0.73), respectively. BRF outperforms linear logistic regression by 15.6% in AUC, 3.0% in sensitivity, and 60.8% in NPV. End-to-end machine learning approaches can predict the acute onset of HF following ACS with high prediction accuracy. This proof-of-concept study has the potential to substantially advance the management of ACS patients by utilizing the machine learning model as a triage tool to automatically identify clinically significant patients allowing for prioritization of interventions.

Serum Human Epididymis Protein 4 as a Prognostic Predictor of New-Onset Heart Failure among Women after Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the prognostic factors among women with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), partly due to the small number of women included in heart failure (HF) clinical trials. Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) has been proven to be a new biomarker for acute and chronic HF over the years. We hypothesize that HE4 could be a promising predictor.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital. This study included 302 female patients with ACS between January 1, 2021, and December 1, 2021. The primary outcome was new-onset HF after ACS during the 12-month follow-up period. We used a logistic regression model to evaluate the association between serum HE4 levels and the incidence of HF. Serum HE4 levels were measured at baseline (within 24 h after admission).

RESULTS

Of the 302 female patients, 70 (23.2%) developed new-onset HF within 12 months. Serum HE4 levels in patients with adverse events were significantly higher than those in patients without events (8.9 [7.3-11.5] pmol/dL versus 5.9 [5.0-6.8] pmol/dL, p < 0.001). The levels of HE4, troponin I peak, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were validated as independent predictors, with HE4 being the best laboratory predictor (area under the curve, 0.863; 95% confidence interval, 0.817-0.909). Serum HE4 concentrations of >6.93 pmol/dL distinguished patients at risk of HF with 82.9% sensitivity and 78.0% specificity (maximum Youden index J, 0.609). Moreover, HE4 levels were associated with an increased risk of HF.

DISCUSSION

We found a strong relationship between HE4 and the occurrence of HF after ACS among women, which might help identify patients at high risk of HF for whom close or intense management should be mandatory.

Serum VCAM-1 and ICAM-1 measurement assists for MACE risk estimation in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients

Background

Vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1 (VCAM‐1) and intercellular adhesion molecule‐1 (ICAM‐1) modulate atherosclerosis by promoting leukocyte infiltration, neutrophil recruitment, endothelial cell proliferation, etc., which may directly or indirectly facilitate the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). This study intended to investigate the value of VCAM‐1 and ICAM‐1 for predicting MACE in ST‐segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients.

Methods

Totally, 373 STEMI patients receiving the percutaneous coronary intervention and 50 health controls (HCs) were included. Serum VCAM‐1 and ICAM‐1 were detected by ELISA. Meanwhile, MACE was recorded during a median follow‐up of 18 (range: 1–46) months in STEMI patients.

Results

Vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1 and ICAM‐1 were raised in STEMI patients compared with HCs (both p < 0.001). VCAM‐1 (p = 0.002) and ICAM‐1 (p = 0.012) high were linked with raised accumulating MACE rate in STEMI patients. Notably, VCAM‐1 high (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.339, p = 0.031), age ≥ 65 years (HR = 2.019, p = 0.039), history of diabetes mellitus (DM) (HR = 2.395, p = 0.011), C‐reactive protein (CRP) ≥ 5 mg/L (HR = 2.550, p = 0.012), multivessel disease (HR = 2.561, p = 0.007) independently predicted MACE risk in STEMI patients. Furthermore, a nomogram‐based prediction model combining these factors was established, exhibiting an acceptable value for estimating 1, 2, and 3‐year MACE risk, with AUC of 0.764, 0.716, and 0.778, respectively, in STEMI patients.

Conclusion

This study confirms the value of VCAM‐1 and ICAM‐1 measurement in predicting MACE risk in STEMI patients. Moreover, VCAM‐1 plus other traditional prognostic factors (such as age, history of DM, CRP, and multivessel disease) cloud further improve the predictive accuracy of MACE risk in STEMI patients.

The role of blood CXCL12 level in prognosis of coronary artery disease: A meta-analysis

Objective

The role of C-X-C motif chemokine 12 (CXCL12) in atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVDs) has emerged as one of the research hotspots in recent years. Studies reported that the higher blood CXCL12 level was associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), but the results were inconsistent. The objective of this study was to clarify the prognostic value of the blood CXCL12 level in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) through meta-analysis.

Methods

All related studies about the association between the blood CXCL12 level and the prognosis of CAD were comprehensively searched and screened according to inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria. The quality of the included literature was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The heterogeneity test was conducted, and the pooled hazard risk (HR) or the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated using the fixed-effect or random-effects model accordingly. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's funnel plot and Egger's test. Sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis were also conducted.

Results

A total of 12 original studies with 2,959 CAD subjects were included in the final data combination. The pooled data indicated a significant association between higher CXCL12 levels and MACEs both in univariate analysis (HR 5.23, 95% CI 2.48–11.04) and multivariate analysis (HR 2.53, 95% CI 2.03–3.16) in the CXCL12 level as the category variable group. In the CXCL12 level as the continuous variable group, the result also indicated that the higher CXCL12 level significantly predicted future MACEs (multivariate OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.02–2.35). Subgroup analysis of the CXCL12 level as the category variable group found significant associations in all acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (univariate HR 9.72, 95% CI 4.69–20.15; multivariate HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.79–3.40), non-ACS (univariate HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.65–4.54; multivariate HR 3.49, 95% CI 1.66–7.33), Asian (univariate HR 7.43, 95% CI 1.70–32.49; multivariate HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.71–2.85), Caucasian (univariate HR 3.90, 95% CI 2.73–5.57; multivariate HR 3.87, 95% CI 2.48–6.04), short-term (univariate HR 9.36, 95% CI 4.10–21.37; multivariate HR 2.72, 95% CI 1.97–3.76), and long-term (univariate HR 2.86, 95% CI 1.62–5.04; multivariate HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.76–3.22) subgroups. Subgroup analysis of the CXCL12 level as the continuous variable group found significant associations in non-ACS (multivariate OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.23–1.92), Caucasian (multivariate OR 3.83, 95% CI 1.44–10.19), and long-term (multivariate OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.37–1.93) subgroups, but not in ACS (multivariate OR 1.36, 95% CI 0.67–2.75), Asian (multivariate OR 1.40, 95% CI 0.91–2.14), and short-term (multivariate OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.28–4.76) subgroups. No significant publication bias was found in this meta-analysis.

Conclusion

The higher blood CXCL12 level is associated with increased MACEs in patients with CAD, and the blood CXCL12 level may serve as an important prognostic index for CAD. Integrating the blood CXCL12 level into CAD risk assessment tools may provide more comprehensive messages for evaluating and managing patients with CAD.

Sex differences following percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass surgery for acute myocardial infarction

Background

Women have been underrepresented in the literature; the effects of female sex on outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remain unclear.

Objectives

This study compares the real-world outcomes of women and men with AMI who have undergone revascularization via percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG).

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study utilizing data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database. We identified patients who were admitted for AMI and who underwent coronary revascularization during the index admission period between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013. Patients were then categorized based on the treatment received into PCI and CABG groups. In-hospital and long-term outcomes were compared between women and men in each group. Interaction tests were then performed to determine whether the differences between sexes were modified by the mode of revascularization. Analyses were repeated after propensity score matching between women and men in each group to minimize possible confounders. We also conducted subgroup analyses, stratifying by the presence of diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, and chronic kidney disease.

Results

We enrolled 67,534 patients who met the inclusion criteria in the analysis; 60,207 patients had undergone PCI (13,514 female and 46,693 male), while 7327 patients had received CABG (1762 female and 5565 male). Prior to matching, enrolled female patients were older on average, with more comorbidities. In-hospital and long-term outcomes were worse in women, particularly in the PCI group. After matching, the incidence of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) was higher in women (10.4% vs 8.0%, OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43), with fewer repeat revascularizations (28.1% vs 32.4%, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.81–0.88). Both observations were more pronounced in the PCI group (HHF: P for interaction = 0.0496; repeat revascularization: P for interaction = 0.021).

Conclusions

Women presenting with AMI exhibited worse in-hospital and long-term outcomes than men, especially among women who received PCI as the initial mode of revascularization. Women who underwent PCI were more likely to be admitted for heart failure during follow-up. Possible socioeconomic inequalities or a distinct pathobiology of cardiac ischemia between sexes may underlie these results; thus, further investigation is needed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13293-022-00427-1.

Among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), women were older, had more comorbid conditions, and were less likely to be discharged with optimal medical therapy than their male counterparts.

In-hospital and long-term outcomes were worse among women compared to men, particularly in those who received percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) as the mode of revascularization for AMI. Despite worse in-hospital survival, women were less likely to receive mechanical cardiac support.

After propensity score matching between women and men for baseline characteristics, the incidence of hospitalization for heart failure was higher among women during long-term follow-up, especially among patients who had undergone PCI. Contrarily, the incidence of repeat revascularization procedures was lower in women in the long term.

Mechanisms underlying cardiac ischemia likely differ between women and men, and socioeconomic inequalities that influence treatment of female patients are also possible.

Survival analyses in cardiovascular research, part II: statistical methods in challenging situations

This article is the second of a series of 2 educational articles. In the first article, we described the basic concepts of survival analysis, summarizing the common statistical methods and providing a set of recommendations to guide the strategy of survival analyses in randomized clinical trials and observational studies. Here, we introduce stratified Cox models and frailty models, as well as the immortal time bias arising from a poor assessment of time-dependent variables. To address the issue of multiplicity of outcomes, we provide several modelling strategies to deal with other types of time-to-event data analyses, such as competing risks, multistate models, and recurrent-event methods. This review is illustrated with examples from previous cardiovascular research publications, and each statistical method is discussed alongside its main strengths and limitations. Finally, we provide some general observations about alternative statistical methods with less restrictive assumptions, such as the win ratio method, the restrictive mean survival time, and accelerated failure time model.