The risk and predictors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency laparotomy: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

Magnitude of in-hospital mortality and its associated factors among patients undergone laparotomy at tertiary public hospitals, West Oromia, Ethiopia, 2022

INTRODUCTION

Laparotomy surgery, which involves making an incision in the abdominal cavity to treat serious abdominal disease and save the patient's life, causes significant deaths in both developed and developing countries, including Ethiopia. The number studies examining in-hospital mortality rates among individuals that undergone laparotomy surgery and associated risk factors is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the magnitude of in-hospital mortality and its associated factors among patients undergone laparotomy at tertiary hospitals, West Oromia, Ethiopia, 2022.

METHODS

An institutional based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021. Data were collected using systematic random sampling and based on structured and pretested abstraction sheets from 548 medical records and patient register log. Data were checked for completeness and consistency, coded, imported using Epi-data version 4.6, cleaned and analyzed using SPSS version 25 software. Variables with p < 0.2 in the Bi-variable logistic regression analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The fit of the model was checked by the Hosmer‒Lemeshow test. Using the odds ratio adjusted to 95% CI and a p value of 0.05, statistical significance was declared.

RESULTS

A total of 512 patient charts were reviewed, and the response rate was 93.43%. The overall magnitude of in-hospital mortality was 7.42% [95% CI: 5.4-9.8]. American society of Anesthesiology physiological status greater than III [AOR = 7.64 (95% CI: 3.12-18.66)], systolic blood pressure less than 90 mmHg [AOR = 6.11 (95% CI: 1.98-18.80)], preoperative sepsis [AOR = 3.54 (95% CI: 1.53-8.19)], ICU admission [AOR = 4.75 (95% CI: 1.50-14.96)], and total hospital stay greater than 14 days [(AOR = 6.76 (95% CI: 2.50-18.26)] were significantly associated with mortality after laparotomy surgery.

CONCUSSION

In this study, overall in- hospital mortality was high. Early identification patient's American Society of Anesthesiologists physiological status and provision of early appropriate intervention, and pays special attention to patients admitted with low systolic blood pressure, preoperative sepsis, intensive care unit admission and prolonged hospital stay to improve patient outcomes after laparotomy surgery.

Development and Validation of HAS (Hajibandeh Index, ASA Status, Sarcopenia) - A Novel Model for Predicting Mortality After Emergency Laparotomy

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a predictive model to predict the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy taking into account the following variables: age, age ≥ 80, ASA status, clinical frailty score, sarcopenia, Hajibandeh Index (HI), bowel resection, and intraperitoneal contamination.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The discriminative powers of the currently available predictive tools range between adequate and strong; none has demonstrated excellent discrimination yet.

METHODS

The TRIPOD and STROCSS statement standards were followed to protocol and conduct a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent emergency laparotomy due to non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology between 2017 and 2022. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to develop and validate the model via two protocols (Protocol A and B). The model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination (ROC curve analysis), calibration (calibration diagram and Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and classification (classification table).

RESULTS

One thousand forty-three patients were included (statistical power = 94%). Multivariable analysis kept HI (Protocol-A: P =0.0004; Protocol-B: P =0.0017), ASA status (Protocol-A: P =0.0068; Protocol-B: P =0.0007), and sarcopenia (Protocol-A: P <0.0001; Protocol-B: P <0.0001) as final predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality in both protocols; hence the model was called HAS (HI, ASA status, sarcopenia). The HAS demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.96, P <0.0001), excellent calibration ( P <0.0001), and excellent classification (95%) via both protocols.

CONCLUSIONS

The HAS is the first model demonstrating excellent discrimination, calibration, and classification in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality following emergency laparotomy. The HAS model seems promising and is worth attention for external validation using the calculator provided. HAS mortality risk calculator https://app.airrange.io/#/element/xr3b_E6yLor9R2c8KXViSAeOSK .

Sarcopenia versus clinical frailty scale in predicting the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare predictive significance of sarcopenia and clinical frailty scale (CFS) in terms of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy METHODS: In compliance with STROCSS statement standards, a retrospective cohort study with prospective data collection approach was conducted. The study period was between January 2017 and January 2022. All adult patients with non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology who underwent emergency laparotomy in our centre were included. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 90-day mortality. The predictive value of sarcopenia and CFS were compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1043 eligible patients were included. The risk of 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and 90-day mortality were 8%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. ROC curve analysis suggested that sarcopenia is a significantly stronger predictor of 30-day mortality (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.70, P<0.0001), in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0011), and 90-day mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0009) compared with CFS. Moreover, multivariable binary logistic regression analysis identified sarcopenia as an independent predictor of mortality [coefficient: 4.333, OR: 76.16 (95% CI 37.06-156.52), P<0.0001] but not the CFS [coefficient: 0.096, OR: 1.10 (95% CI 0.88-1.38), P=0.4047].

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia is a stronger predictor of postoperative mortality compared with CFS in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. It cancels out the predictive value of clinical frailty scale in multivariable analyses; hence among the two variables, sarcopenia deserves to be included in preoperative predictive tools.

Predictors of mortality in patients with isolated gastrointestinal perforation

Gastrointestinal (GI) perforation is common in the emergency department and has a high mortality rate. The present study aimed to identify risk factors for mortality in patients with GI perforation. The objective was to assess and prognosticate the surgical outcomes of patients, aiming to ascertain the efficacy of the procedure for individual patients. A retrospective cohort study of patients with GI perforation who underwent surgery in a public tertiary hospital in China from January 2012 to June 2022 was performed. Demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory and imaging results, and outcomes were collected from electronic medical records. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality, and patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups based on this measure. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain independent factors associated with mortality. A total of 529 patients with GI perforation were eligible for inclusion. The in-hospital mortality rate after emergency surgery was 10.59%. The median age of the patients was 60 years (interquartile range, 44-72 years). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that age, shock on admission, elevated serum creatinine (sCr) and white blood cell (WBC) count <3.5x109 or >20x109 cells/l were predictors of in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, advanced age, shock on admission, elevated sCr levels and significantly abnormal WBC count are associated with higher in-hospital mortality following emergency laparotomy.

Getting back 'home' after emergency laparotomy: how many never make it?

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomy (EL) is performed on about 15 500 patients in Australia each year. Aside from mortality there is significant concern about the possibility that previously independent patients discharged after EL will become reliant on long-term dependent care. This study aimed to establish the proportion of patients not returning to their pre-admission residence, a proxy for dependent care, following EL.

METHODS

Data were collected on all adult patients who underwent EL across four Australian hospitals over 2 years. A total of 113 data points were collected including pre-hospital residence, discharge destination, mortality and place of residence at 90 and 365 days.

RESULTS

A total of 782 patients underwent EL, the mean age was 64 years. Pre-admission, 95.5% of patients were living in their own home. Inpatient mortality was 7.0% and at discharge 72.4% of patients returned directly back to their pre-hospital residence. At 90 days, mortality was 10.5%, and 87% of patients had returned to their pre-hospital residence, including all patients under 70 years of age. By 365 days, overall mortality was 16.8%, and only 1.5% of patients (all aged >70 years) had not returned to their pre-hospital residence.

CONCLUSION

Patients who survive 90 and 365 days following EL nearly all return to their pre-hospital residence, with only a very small proportion of previously independent patients entering dependent care. This should help inform shared decision-making regarding emergency laparotomy in the acute setting.

Comparison between P-POSSUM and NELA risk score for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in Egyptian patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) is one of the scores that is used most frequently for determining the likelihood of mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) presents a novel and validated score. Therefore, we aimed to compare the performance of the NELA and P-POSSUM mortality risk scores in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.

METHODS

Between August 2020 and October 2022, this cohort study was undertaken at Menoufia University Hospital. We compared the P-POSSUM, preoperative NELA, and postoperative NELA scores in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. All variables needed to calculate the used scores were collected. The outcomes included the death rates at 30 and 90 days. By calculating the area under the curve (AUC) for every mortality instrument, the discrimination of the various methods was evaluated and compared.

RESULTS

Data from 670 patients were included. The observed risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality was 10.3% (69/670) and 13.13% (88/670), respectively. Concerning 30-day mortality, the AUC was 0.774 for the preoperative NELA score, 0.763 for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.780 for the postoperative NELA score. Regarding 90-day mortality, the AUCs for the preoperative NELA score, preoperative P-POSSUM score, and postoperative NELA score were 0.649 (0.581-0.717), 0.782 (0.737-0.828), and 0.663 (0.608-0.718), respectively. There was noticeable difference in the three models' capacity for discrimination, according to pairwise comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of 30-day and 90-day death across the entire population was underestimated by the NELA and P-POSSUM scores. There was discernible difference in predictive performance between the two scores.

Predictive Performance of NELA Versus P-POSSUM Mortality Scores: Are We Underestimating the Risk of Mortality Following Emergency Laparotomy?

Background In this study, we aimed to compare the performance of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) and Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) mortality risk scores in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Methodology A retrospective cohort study was conducted to compare the predictive performance of preoperative NELA, postoperative NELA, and P-POSSUM predicted mortality scores in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy between 2014 and 2021. The outcomes of interest included the observed 30-day and 90-day mortality. The discrimination of the mortality tools was assessed and compared by determining the area under the curve (AUC) for each tool using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results A total of 681 patients were included. The observed risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality was 10.4% (71/681) and 14.2% (97/681), respectively. Regarding 30-day mortality, the AUC was 0.791 (0.727-0.855) for the preoperative NELA score, 0.784 (0.721-0.848) for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.761 (0.699-0.824) for the postoperative NELA score. Regarding 90-day mortality, the AUC was 0.765 (0.708-0.821) for the preoperative NELA score, 0.749 (0.692-0.807) for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.745 (0.691-0.800) for the postoperative NELA score. The observed/expected ratio for 30-day and 90-day mortality was 3.25 and 4.43 for preoperative NELA, 2.81 and 3.84 for preoperative P-POSSUM, and 2.17 and 2.96 for postoperative NELA, respectively. Pairwise comparisons showed no statistically significant difference in discrimination among the three models. Conclusions Preoperative NELA, postoperative NELA, and P-POSSUM scores underestimated the risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. No significant difference in predictive performance was found among the three models.

One-Year Outcomes Following Emergency Laparotomy: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomies (EL) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To date, 30-day mortality has been predominately reported, and been the focus of various national emergency laparotomy audits. Only a few studies have reported on the long-term mortality associated with EL. The aim of this study was to review the one-year mortality following EL.

METHOD

A systematic review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines to identify studies published in the last 10 years reporting on long-term mortality associated with EL. The data abstracted included: patient demographics, pathology or type of operation performed for EL, post-operative mortality at 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, beyond 1-year and inpatient, functional outcomes and risk factors associated with mortality. A quality assessment of included studies was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies reporting long-term outcomes associated with EL were identified, including the results of 48,023 patients. The indications and/or pathologies for ELs varied. The 30-day mortality after EL ranged from 5.3% to 21.8%, and the one-year mortality ranged from 15.1 to 47%. The mortality in the six studies focusing on elderly patients ranged from 30 to 47%.

CONCLUSION

The long-term mortality rate associated with EL is substantial. Further study is required to understand the 1-year mortality described in the studies and translate these findings for meaningful application into the clinical care of these patients.