The effect of snow cover on lemming population cycles in the Canadian high Arctic

The geographic distribution, and the biotic and abiotic predictors of select zoonotic pathogen detections in Canadian polar bears

Increasing Arctic temperatures are facilitating the northward expansion of more southerly hosts, vectors, and pathogens, exposing naïve populations to pathogens not typical at northern latitudes. To understand such rapidly changing host-pathogen dynamics, we need sensitive and robust surveillance tools. Here, we use a novel multiplexed magnetic-capture and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) tool to assess a sentinel Arctic species, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus; n = 68), for the presence of five zoonotic pathogens (Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, Francisella tularensis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, Toxoplasma gondii and Trichinella spp.), and observe associations between pathogen presence and biotic and abiotic predictors. We made two novel detections: the first detection of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex member in Arctic wildlife and the first of E. rhusiopathiae in a polar bear. We found a prevalence of 37% for E. rhusiopathiae, 16% for F. tularensis, 29% for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, 18% for T. gondii, and 75% for Trichinella spp. We also identify associations with bear age (Trichinella spp.), harvest season (F. tularensis and MTBC), and human settlements (E. rhusiopathiae, F. tularensis, MTBC, and Trichinella spp.). We demonstrate that monitoring a sentinel species, the polar bear, could be a powerful tool in disease surveillance and highlight the need to better characterize pathogen distributions and diversity in the Arctic.

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Arctic and red fox population responses to climate and cryosphere changes at the Arctic's edge

Responses of one species to climate change may influence the population dynamics of others, particularly in the Arctic where food webs are strongly linked. Specifically, changes to the cryosphere may limit prey availability for predators. We examined Arctic (Vulpes lagopus) and red fox (V. vulpes) population dynamics near the southern edge of the Arctic fox distribution using fur harvest records from Churchill, Manitoba, Canada between 1955 and 2012. Arctic foxes showed a declining population trend over time (inferred from harvest records corrected for trapping effort), whereas the red fox population trend was relatively stable. The positive relationship between the annual Arctic and red fox harvests suggested interspecific competition did not promote the Arctic fox decline. To investigate alternative mechanisms, we evaluated the relative influence of sea-ice phenology, snow depth, snow duration, winter thaws, and summer temperature on the harvest dynamics of both species in the most recent 32 years (1980-2012; n = 29) of our data. Arctic fox harvests were negatively related to the length of time Hudson Bay was free of sea ice. Shorter sea ice duration may reduce access to seal carrion as an alternative winter food source when lemming densities decline. Contrary to our prediction, red fox harvest was not related to summer temperature but was positively related to snow depth, suggesting winter prey availability may limit red fox population growth. Predators have an important ecological role, so understanding the influence of changes in the cryosphere on predator-prey interactions may better illuminate the broader influence of climate change on food-web dynamics.

Lemming winter habitat: the quest for warm and soft snow

During the cold arctic winter, small mammals like lemmings seek refuge inside the snowpack to keep warm and they dig tunnels in the basal snow layer, usually formed of a soft depth hoar, to find vegetation on which they feed. The snowpack, however, is a heterogenous medium and lemmings should use habitats where snow properties favor their survival and winter reproduction. We determined the impact of snow physical properties on lemming habitat use and reproduction in winter by sampling their winter nests for 13 years and snow properties for 6 years across 4 different habitats (mesic, riparian, shrubland, and wetland) on Bylot Island in the Canadian High Arctic. We found that lemmings use riparian habitat most intensively because snow accumulates more rapidly, the snowpack is the deepest and temperature of the basal snow layer is the highest in this habitat. However, in the deepest snowpacks, the basal depth hoar layer was denser and less developed than in habitats with shallower snowpacks, and those conditions were negatively related to lemming reproduction in winter. Shrubland appeared a habitat of moderate quality for lemmings as it favored a soft basal snow layer and a deep snowpack compared with mesic and wetland, but snow conditions in this habitat critically depend on weather conditions at the beginning of the winter. With climate change, a hardening of the basal layer of the snowpack and a delay in snow accumulation are expected, which could negatively affect the winter habitat of lemmings and be detrimental to their populations.

Feast to famine: Sympatric predators respond differently to seasonal prey scarcity on the low Arctic tundra

Resource fluctuation is a major driver of animal movement, influencing strategic choices such as residency vs nomadism, or social dynamics. The Arctic tundra is characterized by strong seasonality: Resources are abundant during the short summers but scarce in winters. Therefore, expansion of boreal-forest species onto the tundra raises questions on how they cope with winter-resource scarcity. We examined a recent incursion by red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) onto the coastal tundra of northern Manitoba, an area historically occupied by Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) that lacks access to anthropogenic foods, and compared seasonal shifts in space use of the two species. We used 4 years of telemetry data following 8 red foxes and 11 Arctic foxes to test the hypothesis that the movement tactics of both species are primarily driven by temporal variability of resources. We also predicted that the harsh tundra conditions in winter would drive red foxes to disperse more often and maintain larger home ranges year-round than Arctic foxes, which are adapted to this environment. Dispersal was the most frequent winter movement tactic in both fox species, despite its association with high mortality (winter mortality was 9.4 times higher in dispersers than residents). Red foxes consistently dispersed toward the boreal forest, whereas Arctic foxes primarily used sea ice to disperse. Home range size of red and Arctic foxes did not differ in summer, but resident red foxes substantially increased their home range size in winter, whereas home range size of resident Arctic foxes did not change seasonally. As climate changes, abiotic constraints on some species may relax, but associated declines in prey communities may lead to local extirpation of many predators, notably by favoring dispersal during resource scarcity.

Tularemia above the Treeline: Climate and Rodent Abundance Influences Exposure of a Sentinel Species, the Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus), to Francisella tularensis

Tularemia is a zoonotic disease found throughout most of the northern hemisphere that may experience range expansion with warming temperatures. Rodents and lagomorphs are reservoirs for the disease, and outbreaks of tularemia often follow peaks in their abundance. As small mammals dominate the diet of arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), we determined whether they may serve as sentinels by identifying antibodies in live-captured and harvested foxes from northern Canada. Overall seroprevalence was 2% (CI95 1-2%) in 176 foxes harvested in 2018-2019 compared to 17% (CI95 12-22%) of 230 foxes captured live in 2011-2021. Prevalence was at an all-time high in 2018, following a peak in vole abundance in 2017. Antibodies were identified in fox pups born in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that F. tularensis was actively transmitted during the summers. High precipitation during the summer, increased snow cover and colder temperatures in May, and a higher abundance of voles were all associated with increased seroprevalence in live-captured foxes. Thus, exposure to F. tularensis is largely mediated through climate and rodent populations in the Canadian Arctic, and arctic foxes are useful sentinels for F. tularensis in northern ecosystems. Further studies should investigate whether infection impacts arctic fox survival and reproductive success in the circumpolar North.

Large-scale changes in marine and terrestrial environments drive the population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding in Siberia

Migratory animals experience very different environmental conditions at different times of the year, i.e., at the breeding grounds, during migration, and in winter. The long-tailed duck Clangula hyemalis breeds in the Arctic regions of the northern hemisphere and migrates to temperate climate zones, where it winters in marine environments. The breeding success of the long-tailed duck is affected by the abundances of predators and their main prey species, lemmings Lemmus sibiricus and Dicrostonyx torquatus, whose population fluctuation is subject to climate change. In the winter quarters, long-tailed ducks mainly eat the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. We examined how North-west Siberian lemming dynamics, assumed as a proxy for predation pressure, affect long-tailed duck breeding success and how nutrient availability in the Baltic Sea influences long-tailed duck population size via mussel biomass and quality. Evidence suggests that the long-tailed duck population dynamics was predator-driven on the breeding grounds and resource-driven on the wintering grounds. Nutrients from fertilizer runoff from farmland stimulate mussel stocks and quality, supporting high long-tailed duck population sizes. The applied hierarchical analysis combining several trophic levels can be used for evaluating large-scale environmental factors that affect the population dynamics and abundance of migrants from one environment to another.

Small herbivores with big impacts: Tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) alter post-fire ecosystem dynamics

Fire is an important ecological disturbance that can reset ecosystems and initiate changes in plant community composition, ecosystem biogeochemistry, and primary productivity. Since herbivores rely on primary producers for food, changes in vegetation may alter plant-herbivore interactions with important - but often unexplored - feedbacks to ecosystems. Here we examined the impact of post-fire changes in plant community composition and structure on habitat suitability and rodent herbivore activity in response to a large, severe, and unprecedented fire in northern Alaskan tundra. In moist acidic tundra where the fire occurred, tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus) are the dominant herbivore and rely on the tussock forming sedge Eriophorum vaginatum for both food and nesting material. Seven to twelve years after the fire, tundra voles were 10 times more abundant at the burned site compared to nearby unburned tundra. Fire increased habitat suitability for voles by increasing plant productivity and biomass, food quality, and cover through both taller vegetation and increased microtopography. As a result of elevated vole abundance, Eriophorum mortality caused by vole herbivory was two orders of magnitude higher than natural mortality and approached the magnitude of the mortality rate resulting directly from the fire. These findings suggest that post-fire increases in herbivore pressure on Eriophorum could, in turn, disrupt graminoid recovery and enhance shrub encroachment. Tundra state transitions from graminoid to shrub dominated are also evident following other disturbances and fertilization experiments, suggesting that as Arctic temperatures rise, greater available nutrients and increased frequencies of large-scale disturbances may also alter plant-animal interactions with cascading impacts on plant communities and ecosystem function.

Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review

Snow is the dominant form of precipitation and the main cryospheric feature of the High Arctic (HA) covering its land, sea, lake and river ice surfaces for a large part of the year. The snow cover in the HA is involved in climate feedbacks that influence the global climate system, and greatly impacts the hydrology and the ecosystems of the coldest biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing global warming trend and its polar amplification is threatening the long-term stability of the snow cover in the HA. This study presents an extensive review of the literature on observed and projected snow cover conditions in the High Arctic region. Several key snow cover metrics were reviewed, including snowfall, snow cover duration (SCD), snow cover extent (SCE), snow depth (SD), and snow water equivalent (SWE) since 1930 based on in situ, remote sensing and simulations results. Changes in snow metrics were reviewed and outlined from the continental to the local scale. The reviewed snow metrics displayed different sensitivities to past and projected changes in precipitation and air temperature. Despite the overall increase in snowfall, both observed from historical data and projected into the future, some snow cover metrics displayed consistent decreasing trends, with SCE and SCD showing the most widespread and steady decreases over the last century in the HA, particularly in the spring and summer seasons. However, snow depth and, in some regions SWE, have mostly increased; nevertheless, both SD and SWE are projected to decrease by 2030. By the end of the century, the extent of Arctic spring snow cover will be considerably less than today (10–35%). Model simulations project higher winter snowfall, higher or lower maximum snow depth depending on regions, and a shortened snow season by the end of the century. The spatial pattern of snow metrics trends for both historical and projected climates exhibit noticeable asymmetry among the different HA sectors, with the largest observed and anticipated changes occurring over the Canadian HA.

Snow mediates climatic impacts on Arctic herbivore populations

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change; however, the complex relationships between climate and ecosystems make incorporating effects of climate change into population management difficult. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and a 24-year multifaceted monitoring data series collected at Zackenberg, North-East Greenland, to untangle the network of climatic and local abiotic and biotic drivers, determining their direct and indirect effects on two herbivores: musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Snow conditions were determined to be the central driver within the system, mediating the effects of climate on herbivore abundance. Under current climate change projections, snow is expected to decrease in the region. Snow had an indirect negative effect on musk ox, as decreased snow depth led to an earlier start to the Arctic willow growing season, shown to increase fecundity and decrease mortality. Musk ox are therefore expected to be more successful under future conditions, within a certain threshold. Snow had both positive and negative effects on lemming, with lemming expected to ultimately be less successful under climate change, as reduction in snow increases their vulnerability to predation. Through their capacity to determine effects of climatic and local drivers within a hierarchy, and the relative strength and direction of these effects, SEMs were demonstrated to have the potential to be valuable in guiding population management.

Spatiotemporally variable snow properties drive habitat use of an Arctic mesopredator

Climate change is rapidly altering the composition and availability of snow, with implications for snow-affected ecological processes, including reproduction, predation, habitat selection, and migration. How snowpack changes influence these ecological processes is mediated by physical snowpack properties, such as depth, density, hardness, and strength, each of which is in turn affected by climate change. Despite this, it remains difficult to obtain meaningful snow information relevant to the ecological processes of interest, precluding a mechanistic understanding of these effects. This problem is acute for species that rely on particular attributes of the subnivean space, for example depth, thermal resistance, and structural stability, for key life-history processes like reproduction, thermoregulation, and predation avoidance. We used a spatially explicit snow evolution model to investigate how habitat selection of a species that uses the subnivean space, the wolverine, is related to snow depth, snow density, and snow melt on Arctic tundra. We modeled these snow properties at a 10 m spatial and a daily temporal resolution for 3 years, and used integrated step selection analyses of GPS collar data from 21 wolverines to determine how these snow properties influenced habitat selection and movement. We found that wolverines selected deeper, denser snow, but only when it was not undergoing melt, bolstering the evidence that these snow properties are important to species that use the Arctic snowpack for subnivean resting sites and dens. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of climate change impacts on subnivean species.

Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve

Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.

What guides lemmings movements through the snowpack?

The presence of a snowpack, which may last up to 9 months in the Arctic, can provide insulation from the cold winter temperature for small mammals living beneath it, such as lemmings. Since lemmings have to move through the snowpack during that period, it is important to better understand how the physical properties of snow affect the way they dig tunnels. Here, we tested 1) whether lemmings systematically dig in the snowpack at the ground level where they can find their food plants, and 2) whether they choose the softest snow layer in which to dig, which is usually the depth hoar layer in the arctic snowpack. We found 33 lemming tunnels in 2017 and 2018 by digging through the snow at the sites of arctic fox attacks on lemmings. Contrary to our expectation, almost all the tunnels (32/33) were found to be higher than ground level, probably because of the presence of obstacles (i.e., melt-freeze crusts or hummocks) at the base of the snowpack. As predicted, all tunnels were dug in the soft depth hoar layer, which had a lower density than snow layers below and above it. Lemmings also showed a preference to dig their tunnels at the top of the depth hoar, just below a hard snow layer. Systematically digging their tunnels in the lowest-density snow layer, regardless of its height in the snow pack, could be a strategy for lemmings to minimize energy expenditure, which could improve their survival and chances of reproducing in winter.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Seasonal demography of a cyclic lemming population in the Canadian Arctic

1. The causes of cyclical fluctuations in animal populations remain a controversial topic in ecology. Food limitation and predation are two leading hypotheses to explain small mammal population dynamics in northern environments. We documented the seasonal timing of the decline phases and demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) associated with population changes in lemmings, allowing us to evaluate some predictions from these two hypotheses. 2. We studied the demography of brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus), a species showing 3- to 4-year population cycles in the Canadian Arctic, by combining capture-mark-recapture analysis of summer live-trapping with monitoring of winter nests over a 10-year period. We also examined the effects of some weather variables on survival. 3. We found that population declines after a peak occurred between the summer and winter period and not during the winter. During the summer, population growth was driven by change in survival, but not in fecundity or proportion of juveniles, whereas in winter population growth was driven by changes in late summer and winter reproduction. 4. We did not find evidence for direct density dependence on summer demographic parameters, though our analysis was constrained by the paucity of data during the low phase. Body mass, however, was highest in peak years. 5. Weather effects were detected only in early summer when lemming survival was positively related to snow depth at the onset of melt but negatively related to rainfall. 6. Our results show that high mortality causes population declines of lemmings during summer and fall, which suggests that predation is sufficient to cause population crashes, whereas high winter fecundity is the primary factor leading to population irruptions. The positive association between snow depth and early summer survival may be due to the protective cover offered by snow against predators. It is still unclear why reproduction remains low during the low phase.

Highly overlapping winter diet in two sympatric lemming species revealed by DNA metabarcoding

Sympatric species are expected to minimize competition by partitioning resources, especially when these are limited. Herbivores inhabiting the High Arctic in winter are a prime example of a situation where food availability is anticipated to be low, and thus reduced diet overlap is expected. We present here the first assessment of diet overlap of high arctic lemmings during winter based on DNA metabarcoding of feces. In contrast to previous analyses based on microhistology, we found that the diets of both collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) on Bylot Island were dominated by Salix while mosses, which were significantly consumed only by the brown lemming, were a relatively minor food item. The most abundant plant taxon, Cassiope tetragona, which alone composes more than 50% of the available plant biomass, was not detected in feces and can thus be considered to be non-food. Most plant taxa that were identified as food items were consumed in proportion to their availability and none were clearly selected for. The resulting high diet overlap, together with a lack of habitat segregation, indicates a high potential for resource competition between the two lemming species. However, Salix is abundant in the winter habitats of lemmings on Bylot Island and the non-Salix portion of the diets differed between the two species. Also, lemming grazing impact on vegetation during winter in the study area is negligible. Hence, it seems likely that the high potential for resource competition predicted between these two species did not translate into actual competition. This illustrates that even in environments with low primary productivity food resources do not necessarily generate strong competition among herbivores.

Is pre-breeding prospecting behaviour affected by snow cover in the irruptive snowy owl? A test using state-space modelling and environmental data annotated via Movebank

BACKGROUND

Tracking individual animals using satellite telemetry has improved our understanding of animal movements considerably. Nonetheless, thorough statistical treatment of Argos datasets is often jeopardized by their coarse temporal resolution. State-space modelling can circumvent some of the inherent limitations of Argos datasets, such as the limited temporal resolution of locations and the lack of information pertaining to the behavioural state of the tracked individuals at each location. We coupled state-space modelling with environmental characterisation of modelled locations on a 3-year Argos dataset of 9 breeding snowy owls to assess whether searching behaviour for breeding sites was affected by snow cover and depth in an arctic predator that shows a lack of breeding site fidelity.

RESULTS

The state-space modelling approach allowed the discrimination of two behavioural states (searching and moving) during pre-breeding movements. Tracked snowy owls constantly switched from moving to searching behaviour during pre-breeding movements from mid-March to early June. Searching events were more likely where snow cover and depth was low. This suggests that snowy owls adapt their searching effort to environmental conditions encountered along their path.

CONCLUSIONS

This modelling technique increases our understanding of movement ecology and behavioural decisions of individual animals both locally and globally according to environmental variables.

A 10-year demographic study of a small mammal community in the Australian Alps

This paper describes a 10-year study of the community of two species of small rodents (Mastacomys fuscus, Rattus fuscipes) and one species of dasyurid marsupial (Antechinus swainsonii) in the subalpine zone of the Australian Alps. Each species exhibited differing life-histories with respect to population numbers, intra- and interannual fluctuations in numbers, reproduction, proportion of young in the population, winter survival, immigration and longevity. Of the two species of rodents, M. fuscus had the lowest population numbers, was the least fecund, had the highest rate of survival, and the smallest fluctuations in numbers. A. swainsonii was the least numerous species, and the winter die-off of males and the high fecundity of females resulted in much greater fluctuations in numbers than for either rodent. For all species, there were interannual variations in most demographic parameters, suggesting considerable flexibility in response to annual variations in the environment. None of the three species is known to hibernate, nor is there any evidence of cyclicity, as shown by some species of subarctic and arctic small mammals. Comparisons are made with subalpine small mammals in other parts of the world and the influence of the subalpine environment in determining population numbers is considered.

Sources of variation in small rodent trophic niche: new insights from DNA metabarcoding and stable isotope analysis

Intraspecific competition for food is expected to increase the trophic niche width of consumers, defined here as their diet diversity, but this process has been little studied in herbivores. Population densities of small rodents fluctuate greatly, providing a good study model to evaluate effects of competition on trophic niche. We studied resource use in five arctic small rodent populations of four species combining DNA metabarcoding of stomach contents and stable isotope analysis (SIA). Our results suggest that for small rodents, the most pronounced effect of competition on trophic niche is due to increased use of secondary habitats and to habitat-specific diets, rather than an expansion of trophic niche in primary habitat. DNA metabarcoding and SIA provided complementary information about the composition and temporal variation of herbivore diets. Combing these two approaches requires caution, as the underlying processes causing observed patterns may differ between methodologies due to different spatiotemporal scales.

Predation pressure by avian predators suggests summer limitation of small-mammal populations in the Canadian Arctic

Predation has been suggested to be especially important in simple food webs and less productive ecosystems such as the arctic tundra, but very few data are available to evaluate this hypothesis. We examined the hypothesis that avian predators could drive the population dynamics of two cyclic lemming species in the Canadian Arctic. A dense and diverse suite of predatory birds, including the Snowy Owl (Bubo scandiacus), the Rough-legged Hawk (Buteo lagopus), and the Long-tailed Jaeger (Stercorarius longicaudus), inhabits the arctic tundra and prey on collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) lemmings during the snow-free period. We evaluated the predation pressure exerted by these predators by combining their numerical (variation in breeding and fledgling numbers) and functional (variation in diet and daily consumption rates) responses to variations in lemming densities over the 2004-2010 period. Breeding density and number of fledglings produced by the three main avian predators increased sharply without delay in response to increasing lemming densities. The proportion of collared lemmings in the diet of those predators was high at low lemming density (both species) but decreased as lemming density increased. However, we found little evidence that their daily consumption rates vary in relation to changes in lemming density. Total consumption rate by avian predators initially increased more rapidly for collared lemming but eventually leveled off at a much higher value for brown lemmings, the most abundant species at our site. The combined daily predation rate of avian predators exceeded the maximum daily potential growth rates of both lemming species except at the highest recorded densities for brown lemmings. We thus show, for the first time, that predation pressure exerted without delay by avian predators can limit populations of coexisting lemming species during the snow-free period, and thus, that predation could play a role in the cyclic dynamic of these species in the tundra.

Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4-7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.