A population model for predicting the successful establishment of introduced bird species

Tracing the introduction of the invasive common myna using population genomics

The common myna (Acridotheres tristis) is one of the most invasive bird species in the world, yet its colonisation history is only partly understood. We identified the introduction history and population structure, and quantified the genetic diversity of myna populations from the native range in India and introduced populations in New Zealand, Australia, Fiji, Hawaii, and South Africa, based on thousands of single nucleotide polymorphism markers in 814 individuals. We were able to identify the source population of mynas in several invasive locations: mynas from Fiji and Melbourne, Australia, were likely founded by individuals from a subpopulation in Maharashtra, India, while mynas in Hawaii and South Africa were likely independently founded by individuals from other localities in India. Our findings suggest that New Zealand mynas were founded by individuals from Melbourne, which, in turn, were founded by individuals from Maharashtra. We identified two genetic clusters among New Zealand mynas, divided by New Zealand's North Island's axial mountain ranges, confirming previous observations that mountains and thick forests may form barriers to myna dispersal. Our study provides a foundation for other population and invasion genomic studies and provides useful information for the management of this invasive species.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

The Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI): an interdisciplinary foundation for the assessment of biosecurity threats

Emerging microparasite (e.g. viruses, bacteria, protozoa and fungi) epidemics and the introduction of non-native pests and weeds are major biosecurity threats worldwide. The likelihood of these threats is often estimated from probabilities of their entry, establishment, spread and ease of prevention. If ecosystems are considered equivalent to hosts, then compartment disease models should provide a useful framework for understanding the processes that underpin non-native species invasions. To enable greater cross-fertilisation between these two disciplines, the Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI) is developed that classifies ecosystems in relation to their invasion status: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Resistant. These states are linked by transitions relating to transmission, latency and recovery. This viewpoint differs markedly from the species-centric approaches often applied to non-native species. It allows generalisations from epidemiology, such as the force of infection, the basic reproductive ratio R0, super-spreaders, herd immunity, cordon sanitaire and ring vaccination, to be discussed in the novel context of non-native species and helps identify important gaps in the study of biological invasions. The EFBI approach highlights several limitations inherent in current approaches to the study of biological invasions including: (i) the variance in non-native abundance across ecosystems is rarely reported; (ii) field data rarely (if ever) distinguish source from sink ecosystems; (iii) estimates of the susceptibility of ecosystems to invasion seldom account for differences in exposure to non-native species; and (iv) assessments of ecosystem susceptibility often confuse the processes that underpin patterns of spread within -and between- ecosystems. Using the invasion of lakes as a model, the EFBI approach is shown to present a new biosecurity perspective that takes account of ecosystem status and complements demographic models to deliver clearer insights into the dynamics of biological invasions at the landscape scale. It will help to identify whether management of the susceptibility of ecosystems, of the number of vectors, or of the diversity of pathways (for movement between ecosystems) is the best way of limiting or reversing the population growth of a non-native species. The framework can be adapted to incorporate increasing levels of complexity and realism and to provide insights into how to monitor, map and manage biological invasions more effectively.

Australia’s wish list of exotic pets: biosecurity and conservation implications of desired alien and illegal pet species

Globalisation of the live pet trade facilitates major pathways for the transport and introduction of invasive alien species across longer distances and at higher frequencies than previously possible. Moreover, the unsustainable trade of species is a major driver for the over-exploitation of wild populations. Australia minimises the biosecurity and conservation risk of the international pet trade by implementing highly stringent regulations on the live import and keeping of alien pets beyond its international CITES obligations. However, the public desire to possess prohibited alien pets has never been quantified and represents a number of species that could be acquired illegally or legally under different future legislative conditions. As such, highly desirable species represent an ongoing conservation threat and biosecurity risk via the pet-release invasion pathway.

We aimed to characterise the Australian desire for illegal alien pets and investigate potential sources of external information that can be utilised to predict future desire. Using public live import enquiry records from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment as a proxy for alien pet desire, we tested for differences in the proportion of species with threatened listings and records of invasions, after accounting for taxonomy. Additionally, we used a United States of America (U.S.) live imports dataset to infer pet demand in another Western market with less stringent regulations and determined whether species highly desired in Australia had higher U.S. trade demand than would be expected by chance.

The Australian public desire for alien pets is heavily and significantly biased towards species threatened with extinction, species popular in the U.S. trade and species with a history of successful invasions. Not only does this indicate the potential impacts of pet desire on invasion risk and the conservation of threatened species, but we also highlight the potential role of the U.S. trade as an effective predictor for Australian desire. Our research emphasises the value of novel datasets in building predictive capacity for improved biosecurity awareness.

Propagule pressure does not consistently predict the outcomes of exotic bird introductions

Some have argued that the role of propagule pressure in explaining the outcomes of bird introductions is well-supported by the historical record. Here, we show that the data from a large published database (including 832 records with propagule information) do not support the conclusion that propagule pressure is the primary determinant of introduction success in birds. A few compendia of historical reports have been widely used to evaluate introduction success, typically by combining data from numerous species and introduction locations. Very few taxa, other than birds, have usable spatially explicit records of introductions over time. This availability of data inflates the perceived importance of bird analyses for addressing factors related to invasion success. The available data allow limited testing of taxonomic and site-level factors of introduction outcomes. We did find significant differences in effort and success probabilities among avian orders and across highly aggregated spatial regions. As a test of a standard and logical expectation of the propagule pressure hypothesis, we concentrated on introductions with the smallest propagules, because it is for these the hypothesis is most likely to be correct. We analyzed the effect of numbers released in small propagules (two through 10) for 227 releases. Weighted linear regression indicated no significant effect of propagule size for this range of release size. In fact, the mean success rate of 28% for propagules of 2-10 isn't significantly different than that of 34% for propagules of 11-100. Following the example of previous analyses, we expanded the statistical test of propagule pressure to include the full range of release numbers. No significant support for the propagule pressure hypothesis was found using logistic regression with either logit or complementary log-log link functions.

Pulsed Immigration Events Can Facilitate Adaptation to Harsh Sink Environments

In nature, rates of dispersal vary greatly over time, yet most theoretical explorations of ecological and evolutionary dynamics to date have assumed constant movement rates. Here we examine how a particular pattern of temporal variation-periodic pulses of immigration-influences adaptation to a harsh environment, in which a species experiences conditions outside its niche requirements. Using both deterministic models and stochastic individual-based simulations, we show that for many ecological and genetic scenarios, temporally spacing out immigration events increases the probability that local adaptation is sufficient for persistence (i.e., niche evolution). When immigration events are too frequent, gene flow can hamper local adaptation in sexual species, but sufficiently infrequent pulses of immigration allow for repeated opportunities for adaptation with temporary escapes from gene flow during which local selection is unleashed. We develop versions of our models with and without density dependence for three different assumptions about the genetics underlying fitness (haploid, diploid, and quantitative genetic variation) so that our results may be applicable to a wide range of natural systems. Our study adds to a growing body of literature showing that temporal variation in migration rates can have significant effects on local adaptation and is among the first to show how such variation affects niche evolution.

Influence of the components of propagule pressure, Allee effects, and stochasticity on the time to establish introduced populations

Forecasting whether individuals of an introduced population will succeed to establish is a challenge in invasion and conservation biology. The present work aims to decouple the impact of the components of propagule pressure on the time for population establishment in the presence of Allee effects and stochasticity in propagule sizes. The mean first passage time (MFPT) for a population to reach a viable size is used as a measure of the establishment success for the introduction processes involving periodic introductions. By fixing the introduction rate (mean number of introduced individuals per unit time) and varying the period of introduction from small ranges (small and frequent introductions) to large ones (infrequent and large releases), we study the influence of introduction distribution over time. These patterns of introduction are compared in a semi-stochastic model by observing which factors minimize the MFPT from an initially absent population, and hence, ensure the fastest population establishment. We investigate the influence on these minima of the introduction rate, variability in the introduction sizes, and occurrence of catastrophes that temporarily wipe out the population. Whereas most investigated cases show that infrequent and large introductions favor population establishment as expected, small and frequent introductions are preferred when the introduction rate is large and/or the variability in the introduction size is strong. Moreover, we observed counterintuitively that catastrophes strongly increase MFPT at small periods of introduction. In addition, we showed that stochasticity in introduction tends to increase the MFPT except when the introduction rate is small and introductions are evenly spread out in time.

Timing between successive introduction events determines establishment success in bacteria with an Allee effect

Propagule pressure is a leading determinant of population establishment. Yet, an experimental understanding of how propagule size and number (two principal parts of propagule pressure) determine establishment success remains incomplete. Theoretical studies suggest that the timing between introduction events, a component of propagule number, can influence establishment success. However, this dynamic has rarely been explored experimentally. Using Escherichia coli engineered with an Allee effect, we investigated how the timing of two introduction events influences establishment. For populations introduced below the Allee threshold, establishment occurred if the time between two introduction events was sufficiently short, with the length of time between events further reduced by reducing growth rate. Interestingly, we observed that as the density of bacteria introduced in one introduction event increased, the time between introduction events that allowed for establishment increased. Using a mathematical model, we provide support that the mechanism behind these trends is the ability of the first population to modify the environment, which can pave the way for establishment of the second population. Our results provide experimental evidence that the temporal distribution of introduction events regulates establishment, furthering our understanding of propagule pressure and may have implications in invasion biology and infectious disease.

An Alternative Perspective for the Theory of Biological Control

Importation biological control represents the planned introduction of a specialist natural enemy from the region of origin of an invasive pest or weed. For this study, the author considered why attempts to develop a predictive theory for biological control have been misguided and what future directions might be more promising and effective. Despite considerable interest in the theory of consumer–resource population dynamics, such theory has contributed little to improvements in the success of biological control due to a focus on persistence and equilibrium dynamics rather than establishment and impact. A broader consideration of invasion biology in addition to population ecology offers new opportunities for a more inclusive theory of biological control that incorporates the demographic and genetic processes that more specifically address the establishment and impact of introduced natural enemies. The importance of propagule size and genetic variance for successful establishment, and of contributions to host population growth, relative population growth rates, interaction strength, and coevolution for suppression of host abundance are discussed as promising future directions for a theory of biological control.

Parsing propagule pressure: Number, not size, of introductions drives colonization success in a novel environment

Predicting whether individuals will colonize a novel habitat is of fundamental ecological interest and is crucial to conservation efforts. A consistently supported predictor of colonization success is the number of individuals introduced, also called propagule pressure. Propagule pressure increases with the number of introductions and the number of individuals per introduction (the size of the introduction), but it is unresolved which process is a stronger driver of colonization success. Furthermore, their relative importance may depend upon the environment, with multiple introductions potentially enhancing colonization of fluctuating environments. To evaluate the relative importance of the number and size of introductions and its dependence upon environmental variability, we paired demographic simulations with a microcosm experiment. Using Tribolium flour beetles as a model system, we introduced a fixed number of individuals into replicated novel habitats of stable or fluctuating quality, varying the number of introductions through time and size of each introduction. We evaluated establishment probability and the size of extant populations through seven generations. We found that establishment probability generally increased with more, smaller introductions, but was not affected by biologically realistic fluctuations in environmental quality. Population size was not significantly affected by environmental variability in the simulations, but populations in the microcosms grew larger in a stable environment, especially with more introduction events. In general, the microcosm experiment yielded higher establishment probability and larger populations than the demographic simulations. We suggest that genetic mechanisms likely underlie these differences and thus deserve more attention in efforts to parse propagule pressure. Our results highlight the importance of preventing further introductions of undesirable species to invaded sites and suggest conservation efforts should focus on increasing the number of introductions or reintroductions of desirable species rather than increasing the size of those introduction events into harsh environments.

Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect

A consistent determinant of the establishment success of alien species appears to be the number of individuals that are introduced to found a population (propagule pressure), yet variation in the form of this relationship has been largely unexplored. Here, we present the first quantitative systematic review of this form, using Bayesian meta-analytical methods. The relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success has been evaluated for a broad range of taxa and life histories, including invertebrates, herbaceous plants and long-lived trees, and terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates. We found a positive mean effect of propagule pressure on establishment success to be a feature of every hypothesis we tested. However, establishment success most critically depended on propagule pressures in the range of 10–100 individuals. Heterogeneity in effect size was associated primarily with different analytical approaches, with some evidence of larger effect sizes in animal rather than plant introductions. Conversely, no variation was accounted for in any analysis by the scale of study (field to global) or methodology (observational, experimental, or proxy) used. Our analyses reveal remarkable consistency in the form of the relationship between propagule pressure and alien population establishment success.

Alien species are a major contributor to human-induced global environmental change. The probability of whether or not an alien species will successfully establish in a novel environment is often related to the number of times a species is introduced and the number of individuals that are introduced each time, collectively termed ‘propagule pressure’. Despite this evidence, we don’t yet know whether this is a universal characteristic of species invasions, and the role of propagule pressure continues to be questioned. Here, we present a quantitative meta-analysis of the relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success across a broad range of species and geographies. We found that propagule pressure was consistently and positively associated with the establishment success of alien species. We conclude that propagule pressure is indeed the most consistent and strongest determinant of alien species establishment. No other factors suggested to explain establishment success can claim such universal support. Our results underpin a clear policy and management target for slowing invasion rates by reducing propagule pressure—ideally to single figures or zero—regardless of any other feature of the invasion.

Seasonal reproduction leads to population collapse and an Allee effect in a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model when mortality rate increases

Many populations collapse suddenly when reaching low densities even if they have abundant food conditions, a phenomenon known as an Allee effect. Such collapses can have disastrous consequences, for example, for loss of biodiversity. In this paper, we formulate a stage-structured consumer-resource biomass model in which adults only reproduce at the beginning of each growing season, and investigate the effect of an increasing stage-independent background mortality rate of the consumer. As the main difference with previously studied continuous-time models, seasonal reproduction can result in an Allee effect and consumer population collapses at high consumer mortality rate. However, unlike the mechanisms reported in the literature, in our model the Allee effect results from the time difference between the maturation of juveniles and the reproduction of adults. The timing of maturation plays a crucial role because it not only determines the body size of the individuals at maturation but also influences the duration of the period during which adults can invest in reproductive energy, which together determine the reproductive output at the end of the season. We suggest that there exists an optimal timing of maturation and that consumer persistence is promoted if individuals mature later in the season at a larger body size, rather than maturing early, despite high food availability supporting rapid growth.

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments

Natural and human-induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross-study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework-MDIG) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small-grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life-history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.

Parasites as Drivers and Passengers of Human-Mediated Biological Invasions

We provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of parasites in biological invasions by alien species. Parasites have frequently been invoked as drivers of invasions, but have received less attention as invasion passengers. The evidence to date that parasites drive invasions by hosts is weak: while there is abundant evidence that parasites have effects in the context of alien invasions, there is little evidence to suggest that parasites have differential effects on alien species that succeed versus fail in the invasion process. Particular case studies are suggestive but not yet informative about general effects. What evidence there is for parasites as aliens suggests that the same kind of factors determine their success as for non-parasites. Thus, availability is likely to be an important determinant of the probability of translocation. Establishment and spread are likely to depend on propagule pressure and on the environment being suitable (all necessary hosts and vectors are present); the likelihood of both of these dependencies being favourable will be affected by traits relating to parasite life history and demography. The added complication for the success of parasites as aliens is that often this will depend on the success of their hosts. We discuss how these conclusions help us to understand the likely effects of parasites on the success of establishing host populations (alien or native).

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes.

Home range, habitat suitability and population modelling of feral Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus) on Kangaroo Island, South Australia

The Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus) is a declared alien pest species on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, where it is implicated in a range of social problems and potential ecological impacts. To inform the management of feral peafowl, we aimed to (1) provide an estimate of peafowl distribution and abundance; (2) measure peafowl home ranges; (3) calculate the area of suitable peafowl habitat; and (4) estimate how the population could change under various culling scenarios. Using expert and landholder surveys, we estimated that ~380 individuals (range 330–428) were distributed among 21 separate groups on Kangaroo Island. Habitat suitability modelling identified native vegetation near agriculture as the preferred peafowl habitat and indicated that substantial unoccupied suitable habitat is available. The mean home range of eight peafowl was 52 ha and one dispersal event of 4.5 km demonstrated that unoccupied suitable habitat could feasibly be colonised. Demographic models indicated that, if unmanaged, the peafowl population could exceed 2000 individuals after 10 years, but that culling ~85 individuals annually could maintain the current population size. We therefore suggest that control of the Kangaroo Island peafowl population is warranted while the current distribution of peafowl is well understood.

Inconsistencies among secondary sources of Chukar Partridge (Alectoris chukar) introductions to the United States

The propagule pressure hypothesis asserts that the number of individuals released is the key determinant of whether an introduction will succeed or not. It remains to be shown whether propagule pressure is more important than either species-level or site-level factors in determining the fate of an introduction. Studies claiming to show that propagule pressure is the primary determinant of introduction success must assume that the historical record as reported by secondary sources is complete and accurate. Here, examine a widely introduced game bird, the Chukar (Alectoris chukar), to the USA. We compare the records reported by two secondary sources (Long, 1981; Lever, 1987) to those in a primary source (Christensen, 1970) and to a recent study by Sol et al. (2012). Numerous inconsistencies exist in the records reported by Sol et al. (2012), Long (1981) and Lever (1987) when compared to the primary record of Christensen (1970). As reported by Christensen (1970), very large numbers of Chukars were released unsuccessfully in some states. Our results strongly imply that factors other than sheer numbers are more important. Site-to-site differences are the most likely explanation for the variation in success.

The influence of numbers on invasion success

The process by which a species becomes a biological invader, at a location where it does not naturally occur, can be divided into a series of sequential stages (transport, introduction, establishment and spread). A species' success at passing through each of these stages depends, in a large part, on the number of individuals available to assist making each transition. Here, we review the evidence that numbers determine success at each stage of the invasion process and then discuss the likely mechanisms by which numbers affect success. We conclude that numbers of individuals affect transport and introduction by moderating the likelihood that abundant (and widespread) species are deliberately or accidentally translocated; affect establishment success by moderating the stochastic processes (demographic, environmental, genetic or Allee) to which small, introduced populations will be vulnerable; and affect invasive spread most likely because of persistent genetic effects determined by the numbers of individuals involved in the establishment phase. We finish by suggesting some further steps to advance our understanding of the influence of numbers on invasion success, particularly as they relate to the genetics of the process.

A comment on the role of propagule pressure in the establishment success of introduced birds

In a recent paper, Cassey et al. (Oecologia 175: 417-428, 2014) presented a population model of establishment success among birds introduced to New Zealand. They found that net reproductive rate was more important than propagule pressure in three separate cases involving species that reflect life history type of three avian types. Although Cassey et al. (Oecologia 175: 417-428, 2014) claim this result was unexpected, in fact it supports previous studies that have questioned the role of propagule pressure in determining introduction outcomes.

A comparison of success rates of introduced passeriform birds in New Zealand, Australia and the United States

In this study, we compiled lists of successful and unsuccessful passeriform introductions to nine sites in New Zealand, Australia and the United States. We limited our analysis to introductions during the 19th century to minimize potential variation in transport modes and habitat quality changes, such as those due to increasing urbanization. We compared introduction success rates at three levels. First we included all passeriforms introduced to any of the sites in the three locations, then we compared the fates of just those species with a European origin and finally we compared success rates of just the 13 species released into all three locations. We found that the pattern of success or failure differed significantly across the three locations: Passeriforms introduced by acclimatization organizations to the United States were significantly more likely to fail than those introduced to New Zealand or Australia. Several species that succeeded in either New Zealand or Australia failed in the United States, even after the introduction of seemingly sufficient numbers.