Age-specific reproductive success and cost in female Alpine ibex

Reproductive senescence in polar bears in a variable environment

Reproductive senescence is ubiquitous in mammals. However, patterns of senescence vary across reproductive traits, even within populations, perhaps because of differences in selection pressures, physiological constraints, and responses to environmental conditions. We investigated reproductive senescence in wild female polar bears (Ursus maritimus), using 31 years of capture-recapture data from the Svalbard area. We studied the influence of environmental conditions on age-specific litter production and litter size using generalized linear mixed models. Further, using a capture-recapture model that handles the dependency between vital rates of individuals belonging to the same family unit, we assessed maternal-age-related changes in first year cub and litter survival. We provide clear evidence for reproductive senescence in female polar bears. Litter production and litter size peaked in middle-aged females and declined sharply afterward. By contrast cub and litter survival did not decline after prime age. We found no evidence of terminal investment. The reproductive output of all females was affected by sea-ice conditions during the previous year and the Arctic Oscillation, with some effects differing greatly between age groups. Old females were affected the most by environmental conditions. Our results suggest that the decline in reproductive output is a combination of fertility and body-condition senescence, with a weak contribution of maternal-effect senescence, possibly due to benefits of experience. Further, as predicted by evolutionary theory, senescence appears to be a consequence of failures in early stages of the reproductive cycle rather than in late stages, and environmental variation affected old females more than prime-aged females. Our study emphasizes the need to study several reproductive traits and account for environmental variation when investigating reproductive senescence. Differences in senescence patterns across reproductive traits should be interpreted in light of evolutionary theory and while considering underlying physiological drivers.

Experimentally increased brood size accelerates actuarial senescence and increases subsequent reproductive effort in a wild bird population

The assumption that reproductive effort decreases somatic state, accelerating ageing, is central to our understanding of life‐history variation. Maximal reproductive effort early in life is predicted to be maladaptive by accelerating ageing disproportionally, decreasing fitness.

Optimality theory predicts that reproductive effort is restrained early in life to balance the fitness contribution of reproduction against the survival cost induced by the reproductive effort. When adaptive, the level of reproductive restraint is predicted to be inversely linked to the remaining life expectancy, potentially resulting in a terminal effort in the last period of reproduction.

Experimental tests of the reproductive restraint hypothesis require manipulation of somatic state and subsequent investigation of reproductive effort and residual life span. To our knowledge the available evidence remains inconclusive, and hence reproductive restraint remains to be demonstrated.

We modulated somatic state through a lifelong brood size manipulation in wild jackdaws and measured its consequences for age‐dependent mortality and reproductive success.

The assumption that lifelong increased brood size reduced somatic state was supported: Birds rearing enlarged broods showed subsequent increased rate of actuarial senescence, resulting in reduced residual life span.

The treatment induced a reproductive response in later seasons: Egg volume and nestling survival were higher in subsequent seasons in the increased versus reduced broods' treatment group. We detected these increases in egg volume and nestling survival despite the expectation that in the absence of a change in reproductive effort, the reduced somatic state indicated by the increased mortality rate would result in lower reproductive output. This leads us to conclude that the higher reproductive success we observed was the result of higher reproductive effort.

Our findings show that reproductive effort negatively covaries with remaining life expectancy, supporting optimality theory and confirming reproductive restraint as a key factor underpinning life‐history variation.

Live fast, don't die young: Survival-reproduction trade-offs in long-lived income breeders

Trade-offs between survival and reproduction are at the core of life-history theory, and essential to understanding the evolution of reproductive tactics as well as population dynamics and stability. Factors influencing these trade-offs are multiple and often addressed in isolation. Further problems arise as reproductive states and survival in wild populations are estimated based on imperfect and potentially biased observation processes, which might lead to flawed conclusions. In this study, we aimed at elucidating trade-offs between current reproduction (both pregnancy and lactation), survival and future reproduction, including the specific costs of first reproduction, in long-lived, income breeding small mammals, an under-studied group. We developed a novel statistical framework that encapsulates the breeding life cycle of females, and accounts for incomplete information on female pregnancy and lactation and imperfect and biased recapture rates. We applied this framework to longitudinal data on two sympatric, closely related bat species (Myotis daubentonii and M. nattereri). We revealed the existence of several, to our knowledge previously unknown, trends in survival and breeding of these closely related, sympatric species and detected remarkable differences in their age and costs of first reproduction, as well as their survival-reproduction trade-offs. Our results indicate that species with this type of life history exhibit a mixture of patterns expected for long-lived and short-lived animals, and between income and capital breeders. Thus, we call for more studies to be conducted in similar study systems, increasing our ability to fully understand the evolutionary origin and fitness effects of trade-offs and senescence.

Demographic, environmental and genetic determinants of mating success in captive koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Many factors have been shown to affect mating behavior. For instance, genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are known to influence mate choice in a wide variety of vertebrate species. The genetic management of captive populations can be confounded if intrinsic mate choice reduces or eliminates reproductive success between carefully chosen breeding pairs. For example, the San Diego Zoo koala colony only has a 45% copulation rate for matched individuals. Herein, we investigated determinants of koala mating success using breeding records (1984-2010) and genotypes for 52 individuals at four MHC markers. We quantified MHC diversity according to functional amino acids, heterozygosity, and the probability of producing a heterozygous offspring. We then used categorical analysis and logistic regression to investigate both copulation and parturition success. In addition, we also examined age, day length, and average pairwise kinship. Our post-hoc power analysis indicates that at a power level of 1-β = 0.8, we should have been able to detect strong MHC preferences. However, we did not find a significant MHC effect on either copulation or parturition success with one exception: pairs with lower or no production of a joey had significantly lower MHC functional amino acid diversity in the categorical analysis. In contrast, day length and dam age (or age difference of the pair) consistently had an effect on mating success. These findings may be leveraged to improve the success of attempted pairs, conserve resources, and facilitate genetic management.

Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity

Variation in life-history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among-individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness-related traits among otherwise-identical individuals. An improved understanding of life-history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33-yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among-individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non-breeders. We detected age-related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31 yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life-history traits. We found that among-individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictions from life-history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long-lived, high-latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.

Reproductive skipping as an optimal life history strategy in the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina

Intermittent breeding by which organisms skip some current reproductive opportunities in order to enhance future reproductive success is a common life history trade-off among long-lived, iteroparous species. The southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina engages in intermediate breeding when body condition is low. While it is anticipated that this strategy may increase the lifetime reproductive output of this species, the conditions under which reproductive skipping are predicted to occur are not clear. Here I develop a dynamic state variable model based on published data that examines when southern elephant seals are predicted to optimally skip reproduction in order to maximize lifetime reproductive output as a function of current body mass, maternal age, and survivorship. I demonstrate that the optimal reproductive strategy for this species can include reproductive skipping, and that the conditions where this is optimal depend on patterns of mass-dependent adult female survival. I further show that intermittent breeding can increase lifetime reproductive output, and that the magnitude of this benefit increases with the ability of individual animals to replenish depleted body mass through foraging. Finally, I show that when the environment is variable and foraging is reduced in bad years, the benefit of adopting an optimal strategy that includes reproductive skipping increases asymptotically with the frequency of bad years. These results highlight the importance of characterizing the pattern of adult survival in this species, as well as the need to identify other factors that may influence the prevalence and benefits of reproductive skipping.

Investigating Relationships between Reproduction, Immune Defenses, and Cortisol in Dall Sheep

Life-history theory is fundamental to understanding how animals allocate resources among survival, development, and reproduction, and among traits within these categories. Immediate trade-offs occur within a short span of time and, therefore, are more easily detected. Trade-offs, however, can also manifest across stages of the life cycle, a phenomenon known as carryover effects. We investigated trade-offs on both time scales in two populations of Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in Southcentral Alaska. Specifically, we (i) tested for glucocorticoid-mediated carryover effects from the breeding season on reproductive success and immune defenses during parturition and (ii) tested for trade-offs between immune defenses and reproduction within a season. We observed no relationship between cortisol during mating and pregnancy success; however, we found marginal support for a negative relationship between maternal cortisol and neonate birth weights. Low birth weights, resulting from high maternal cortisol, may result in low survival or low fecundity for the neonate later in life, which could result in overall population decline. We observed a negative relationship between pregnancy and bacterial killing ability, although we observed no relationship between pregnancy and haptoglobin. Study site affected bactericidal capacity and the inflammatory response, indicating the influence of external factors on immune responses, although we could not test hypotheses about the cause of those differences. This study helps advance our understanding of the plasticity and complexity of the immune system and provides insights into the how individual differences in physiology may mediate differences in fitness.

Optimizing lifetime reproductive output: Intermittent breeding as a tactic for females in a long-lived, multiparous mammal

In iteroparous species, intermittent breeding is an important life-history tactic that can greatly affect animal population growth and viability. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified the consequences of breeding pauses on lifetime reproductive output, principally because calculating lifetime reproductive output requires knowledge of each individual's entire reproductive history. This information is extremely difficult to obtain in wild populations. We applied novel statistical approaches that account for uncertainty in state assessment and individual heterogeneity to an 18-year capture-recapture dataset of 6,631 female southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island. We estimated survival and breeding probabilities, and investigated the consequences of intermittent breeding on lifetime reproductive output. We found consistent differences in females' demographic performance between two heterogeneity classes. In particular, breeding imbued a high cost on survival in the females from the heterogeneity class 2, assumed to be females of lower quality. Individual quality also appeared to play a major role in a female's decision to skip reproduction with females of poorer quality more likely to skip breeding events than females of higher quality. Skipping some breeding events allowed females from both heterogeneity classes to increase lifetime reproductive output over females that bred annually. However, females of lower quality produced less offspring over their lifetime. Intermittent breeding seems to be used by female southern elephant seals as a tactic to offset reproductive costs on survival and enhance lifetime reproductive output but remains unavoidable and driven by individual-specific constraints in some other females.

Sociospatial structure explains marked variation in brucellosis seroprevalence in an Alpine ibex population

In a context of (re)emerging infectious diseases with wildlife reservoirs, understanding how animal ecology shapes epidemiology is a key issue, particularly in wild ungulates that share pathogens with domestic herbivores and have similar food requirements. For the first time in Europe, brucellosis (Brucella melitensis), a virulent zoonosis, persisted in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) population and was transmitted to cattle and humans. To better understand disease dynamics, we investigated the relationships between the spatial ecology of ibex and the epidemiology of brucellosis. Combining home range overlap between 37 GPS-collared individuals and visual observations of 148 visually-marked individuals monitored during the 2013-2016 period, we showed that females were spatially segregated in at least 4 units all year round, whereas males were more prone to move between female units, in particular during the rutting period. In addition to ibex age, the spatial structure in females largely contributed to variation in seroprevalence in the whole population. These results suggest that non-sexual routes are the most likely pathways of intraspecific transmission, crucial information for management. Accounting for wildlife spatial ecology was hence decisive in improving our ability to better understand this health challenge involving a wildlife reservoir.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.

Testing the reproductive and somatic trade-off in female Columbian ground squirrels

Energetic trade‐offs in resource allocation form the basis of life‐history theory, which predicts that reproductive allocation in a given season should negatively affect future reproduction or individual survival. We examined how allocation of resources differed between successful and unsuccessful breeding female Columbian ground squirrels to discern any effects of resource allocation on reproductive and somatic efforts. We compared the survival rates, subsequent reprodction, and mass gain of successful breeders (females that successfully weaned young) and unsuccessful breeders (females that failed to give birth or wean young) and investigated “carryover” effects to the next year. Starting capital was an important factor influencing whether successful reproduction was initiated or not, as females with the lowest spring emergence masses did not give birth to a litter in that year. Females that were successful and unsuccessful at breeding in one year, however, were equally likely to be successful breeders in the next year and at very similar litter sizes. Although successful and unsuccessful breeding females showed no difference in over winter survival, females that failed to wean a litter gained additional mass during the season when they failed. The next year, those females had increased energy “capital” in the spring, leading to larger litter sizes. Columbian ground squirrels appear to act as income breeders that also rely on stored capital to increase their propensity for future reproduction. Failed breeders in one year “prepare” for future reproduction by accumulating additional mass, which is “carried over” to the subsequent reproductive season.

Older conservatives: reproduction in female Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) is increasingly risk-averse with age

In long-lived mammals, costs of reproduction may vary with age. The terminal investment hypothesis predicts greater reproductive effort as females approach the end of their life expectancy. We monitored 97 individually marked female Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra (L., 1758)) between 2007 and 2013 to determine how age-specific reproduction affected body mass and subsequent reproductive success. We captured and weighed females between April and August and monitored reproductive success from April to October through mother–kid associations. Reproductive success was strongly age-dependent and peaked at 70% for prime-aged females (4–7 years). Reproductive senescence began at 8 years, earlier than reported by other studies of ungulates. There was no clear evidence of reproductive costs in any age class. Reproductive success was very heterogeneous for old females, suggesting variability in the onset of senescence. Old females were less likely to reproduce in poor years despite being heavier than prime-aged females, suggesting reproductive restraint in late life rather than terminal investment. Female mass remained stable from May to August with no effect of lactation. Our results suggest that chamois reproductive strategy becomes increasingly conservative with age, resulting in no detectable costs of reproduction.

What shapes fitness costs of reproduction in long-lived iteroparous species? A case study on the Alpine ibex

The fitness costs of reproduction can be masked by individual differences, and may only become apparent during adverse environmental conditions. Individual differences, however, are usually assessed by reproductive success, so how fitness costs are influenced by the interplay between the environmental context and overall individual differences requires further investigation. Here, we evaluated fitness costs of reproduction based on 15 yr of monitoring of individual Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) during a period when the population was affected by a severe disease outbreak (pneumonia). We quantified fitness costs using a novel multi-event capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling approach that accounted for uncertainty in reproductive status to estimate the survival and reproductive success of female ibex while also accounting for overall individual heterogeneity using mixture models. Our results show that the ability of females to reproduce was highly heterogeneous. In particular, one group including 76% of females had a much higher probability of giving birth annually (between 0.66 and 0.77, depending on the previous reproductive status) than females of the second group (24% of females, between 0 and 0.05 probability of giving birth annually). Low reproductive costs in terms of future reproduction occurred and were independent of the pneumonia outbreak. There was no survival cost of reproduction either before or after the epizootic, but the cost was high during the epizootic. Our findings indicate that adverse environmental conditions, such as disease outbreaks, may lead to survival costs of reproduction in long-lived species and select against females that have a high reproductive effort. Thereby, the occurrence of adverse conditions increases the diversity of reproductive tactics within a population.