Climate warming may affect the optimal timing of reproduction for migratory geese differently in the low and high Arctic

Barnacle geese Branta leucopsis breeding on Novaya Zemlya: current distribution and population size estimated from tracking data

The Russian breeding population of barnacle geese Branta leucopsis has shown a rapid increase in numbers since 1980, which has coincided with a southwest-wards breeding range expansion within the Russian Arctic. Here barnacle geese also started to occupy coastal and marsh land habitats, in which they were not know to nest on their traditional breeding grounds. While these changes have been well documented by studies and observations throughout the new breeding range of barnacle geese, observations are lacking from the traditional breeding grounds on Novaya Zemlya, as this area is remote and difficult to access. This is especially relevant given rapid climate warming in this area, which may impact local distribution and population size. We used GPS-tracking and behavioural biologging data from 46 individual barnacle geese captured on their wintering grounds to locate nest sites in the Russian Arctic and study nesting distribution in 2008–2010 and 2018–2020. Extrapolating from nest counts on Kolguev Island, we estimate the breeding population on Novaya Zemlya in 2018–2020 to range around 75,250 pairs although the confidence interval around this estimate was large. A comparison with the historical size of the barnacle goose population suggests an increase in the breeding population on Novaya Zemlya, corresponding with changes in other areas of the breeding range. Our results show that many barnacle geese on Novaya Zemlya currently nest on lowland tundra on Gusinaya Zemlya Peninsula. This region has been occupied by barnacle geese only since 1990 and appears to be mainly available for nesting in years with early spring. Tracking data are a valuable tool to increase our knowledge of remote locations, but counts of breeding individuals or nests are needed to further corroborate estimates of breeding populations based on tracking data.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

From individual to population level: Temperature and snow cover modulate fledging success through breeding phenology in greylag geese (Anser anser)

Local weather conditions may be used as environmental cues by animals to optimize their breeding behaviour, and could be affected by climate change. We measured associations between climate, breeding phenology, and reproductive output in greylag geese (Anser anser) across 29 years (1990-2018). The birds are individually marked, which allows accurate long-term monitoring of life-history parameters for all pairs within the flock. We had three aims: (1) identify climate patterns at a local scale in Upper Austria, (2) measure the association between climate and greylag goose breeding phenology, and (3) measure the relationship between climate and both clutch size and fledging success. Ambient temperature increased 2 °C across the 29-years study period, and higher winter temperature was associated with earlier onset of egg-laying. Using the hatch-fledge ratio, average annual temperature was the strongest predictor for the proportion of fledged goslings per season. There is evidence for an optimum time window for egg-laying (the earliest and latest eggs laid had the lowest fledging success). These findings broaden our understanding of environmental effects and population-level shifts which could be associated with increased ambient temperature and can thus inform future research about the ecological consequences of climate changes and reproductive output in avian systems.

Exposure radius of a local coal mine in an Arctic coastal system; correlation between PAHs and mercury as a marker for a local mercury source

Mercury in the Arctic originates from emissions and releases at lower latitudes and, to a lesser extent, from local and regional sources. The relationship between mercury (Hg) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment can be applied as an indicator of the mercury source. This research examines the Hg contamination gradient from a land-based coal mine to the surrounding coastal environment to quantify the impact of local sources. Total mercury and PAH (Σ₁₄PAH) were measured in terrestrial and marine sediments as well as in marine biota. Samples were collected at the mine and two reference sites. Mercury and Σ₁₄PAH concentrations in samples collected at the mine site were significantly higher than those at the reference sites. This was also found in the biota samples, although less pronounced. This work addresses the complexities of interpreting data concerning very low contaminant levels in a relatively pristine environment. A clear correlation between PAH and Hg concentration in sediment was found, although a large number of samples had levels below detection limits. PAH profiles, hierarchical clustering, and molecular diagnostic ratios provided further insight into the origin of PAHs and Hg, showing that signatures in sediments from the nearest reference site were more similar to the mine, which was not the case for the other reference site. The observed exposure radius from the mine was small and diluted from land to water to marine biota. Due to low contamination levels and variable PAH profiles, marine biota was less suitable for tracing the exposure radius for this local land-based Hg source. With an expected increase in mobility and availability of contaminants in the warming Arctic, changes in input of PAHs and Hg from land-based sources to the marine system need close monitoring.

Nocturnal foraging lifts time constraints in winter for migratory geese but hardly speeds up fueling

Climate warming advances the optimal timing of breeding for many animals. For migrants to start breeding earlier, a concurrent advancement of migration is required, including premigratory fueling of energy reserves. We investigate whether barnacle geese are time constrained during premigratory fueling and whether there is potential to advance or shorten the fueling period to allow an earlier migratory departure. We equipped barnacle geese with GPS trackers and accelerometers to remotely record birds’ behavior, from which we calculated time budgets. We examined how time spent foraging was affected by the available time (during daylight and moonlit nights) and thermoregulation costs. We used an energetic model to assess onset and rates of fueling and whether geese can further advance fueling by extending foraging time. We show that, during winter, when facing higher thermoregulation costs, geese consistently foraged at night, especially during moonlit nights, in order to balance their energy budgets. In spring, birds made use of the increasing day length and gained body stores by foraging longer during the day, but birds stopped foraging extensively during the night. Our model indicates that, by continuing nighttime foraging throughout spring, geese may have some leeway to advance and increase fueling rate, potentially reaching departure body mass 4 days earlier. In light of rapid climatic changes on the breeding grounds, whether this advancement can be realized and whether it will be sufficient to prevent phenological mismatches remains to be determined.

State dependence explains individual variation in nest defence behaviour in a long-lived bird

Parental care, such as nest or offspring defence, is crucial for offspring survival in many species. Yet, despite its obvious fitness benefits, the level of defence can consistently vary between individuals of the same species. One prominent adaptive explanation for consistent individual differences in behaviours involves state dependency: relatively stable differences in individual state should lead to the emergence of repeatable behavioural variation whereas changes in state should lead to a readjustment of behaviour. Therefore, empirical testing of adaptive state dependence requires longitudinal data where behaviour and state of individuals of the same population are repeatedly measured.

Here, we test if variation in states predicts nest defence behaviour (a ‘risky’ behaviour) in a long‐lived species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Adaptive models have predicted that an individual's residual reproductive value or ‘asset’ is an important state variable underlying variation in risk‐taking behaviour. Hence, we investigate how nest defence varies as a function of time of the season and individual age, two state variables that can vary between and within individuals and determine asset.

Repeated measures of nest defence towards a human intruder (flight initiation distance or FID) of females of known age were collected during 15 breeding seasons. Increasing values of FID represent increasing shyness.

We found that females strongly and consistently differed in FID within‐ and between‐years. As predicted by theory, females adjusted their behaviour to state by decreasing their FID with season and age. Decomposing these population patterns into within‐ and between‐individual effects showed that the state‐dependent change in FID was driven by individual plasticity in FID and that bolder females were more plastic than shyer females.

This study shows that nest defence behaviour differs consistently among individuals and is adjusted to individual state in a direction predicted by adaptive personality theory.

Tracing sources of carbon and hydrogen to stored lipids in migratory passerines using stable isotope (δ13C, δ2H) measurements

Using measurements of naturally occurring stable isotopes in feathers to determine avian origin and migratory patterns is well established. However, isotopically determining nutritional origins of lipids, a major migratory fuel, has not been attempted. This study explores isotopic links between diet and stored lipids in captive white-throated sparrows (Zonotrichia albicollis) by providing isotopically distinct mixtures of carbohydrates/oils and drinking water and assessing the δ¹³C and δ²H values of stored lipid, breath CO₂ (δ¹³C) and breath water vapour (δ²H). Stored lipid δ¹³C and δ²H values correlated with the isotopic values found in dietary carbohydrates/oils and drinking water treatments, respectively, indicating a clear traceable transfer of environmental dietary isotopic signals into body lipids. Dietary oils and carbohydrates contributed 80-82% of carbon and 44-46% of hydrogen, respectively, to stored lipids. Drinking water contributed 18-28% of hydrogen to stored lipids. Isotopic relationships were quantifiable using linear calibration algorithms which provide the basis for the construction of tissue isoscapes for migratory passerines. Breath CO₂ δ¹³C values and breath water vapour δ²H values for fed and fasted birds reflected dietary sources. Breath CO₂ δ¹³C values were higher for fasted birds than for fed birds by an average of 4.5‰ while breath water vapour δ²H values were lower for fasted birds by an average of 48.9‰. These results indicate that lipids and metabolites from their subsequent breakdown for fuel isotopically reflect dietary sources but complicate interpretation of such data, especially for wild migrating birds. Applications and limitations of these findings to the creation of "liposcapes" are examined.