Identifying the paths of climate effects on population dynamics: dynamic and multilevel structural equation model around the annual cycle

Path analysis reveals combined winter climate and pollution effects on the survival of a marine top predator

Marine ecosystems are experiencing growing pressure from multiple threats caused by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for marine food webs. Determining the effects of multiple stressors is complex, in part, as they can affect different aspects of biological organisation (behaviour, individual traits and demographic rates). Determining the combined effects of stressors, through different biological pathways, is key to predict the consequences for the viability of populations threatened by global change. Due to their position in the food chain, top predators such as seabirds are considered more sensitive to environmental changes. Climate change is affecting the prey resources available for seabirds, through bottom-up effects, while organic pollutants can bioaccumulate in food chains with the greatest impacts on top predators. However, knowledge of their combined effects on population dynamics is scarce. Using a path analysis, we quantify the effects of climate change and pollution on the survival of adult great black-backed gulls, both directly and through effects of individuals' body mass. Warmer ocean temperatures in gulls' winter foraging areas in the North Sea were correlated with higher survival, potentially explained by shifts in prey availability associated with global climate change. We also found support for indirect negative effects of organochlorines, highly toxic pollutants to seabirds, on survival, which acted, in part, through a negative effect on body mass. The results from this path analysis highlight how, even for such long-lived species where variance in survival tends to be limited, two stressors still have had a marked influence on adult survival and illustrate the potential of path models to improve predictions of population variability under multiple stressors.

Winter-ground microhabitat use by differently coloured phenotypes affects return rate in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory bird populations are declining globally at alarming rates. Non-breeding site conditions affect breeding populations, but generalising non-breeding habitat conditions over large spatial regions cannot address potential fine-scale differences across landscapes or local populations. Plumage characteristics can mediate the effects of environmental conditions on individual fitness. However, whether different phenotypes use distinctive non-breeding sites, and whether they respond to non-breeding site conditions differently remains largely unknown. Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ2H) of inert tissues are useful to infer habitat characteristics and geographic origins where those tissues were grown. We collected winter-grown feathers from pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) on their breeding grounds over several years from males whose dorsal plumage colouration ranged continuously from brown to black and assessed their stable isotope values as proxies of local habitat conditions. Based on feather δ2H profiles we found that browner males spent their non-breeding season in drier habitats than black males. Assignment to origin analysis shows potential regional non-breeding ground separation between differently coloured males. High within-individual repeatability of both δ13C and δ15N indicate the pied flycatcher males return yearly to similar areas. Blacker males were more likely to return to the breeding grounds after dry years compared with brown males. The opposite was found in wet years. Our study demonstrates that different phenotypes are exposed to different non-breeding site conditions which can differentially affect individual survivorship. This has important ramifications for population dynamics under predicted climate change scenarios where especially brown phenotype pied flycatcher males may be under a risk of decreasing.

Individuals departing non-breeding areas early achieve earlier breeding and higher breeding success

Conditions experienced by an individual during migration have the potential to shape migratory tactic and in turn fitness. For large birds, environmental conditions encountered during migration have been linked with survival and subsequent reproductive output, but this is less known for smaller birds, hindering our understanding of mechanisms driving population change. By combining breeding and tracking data from 62 pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) representing two breeding populations collected over 2016-2020, we determine how variation in migration phenology and tactic among individuals affects subsequent breeding. Departure date from West African non-breeding areas to European breeding grounds was highly variable among individuals and had a strong influence on migration tactic. Early departing individuals had longer spring migrations which included longer staging duration yet arrived at breeding sites and initiated breeding earlier than later departing individuals. Individuals with longer duration spring migrations and early arrival at breeding sites had larger clutches, and for males higher fledging success. We suggest that for pied flycatchers, individual carry-over effects may act through departure phenology from West Africa, and the associated spring migration duration, to influence reproduction. While our results confirm that departure date from non-breeding areas can be associated with breeding success in migratory passerines, we identify spring staging duration as a key component of this process.

The role of seasonal migration in spatial population synchrony

Spatially synchronized population dynamics are common in nature, and understanding their causes is key for predicting species persistence. A main driver of synchrony between populations of the same species is shared environmental conditions, which cause populations closer together in space to be more synchronized than populations further from one another. Most theoretical and empirical understanding of this driver considers resident species. For migratory species, however, the degree of spatial autocorrelation in the environment may change across seasons and vary by their geographic location along the migratory route or on a nonbreeding ground, complicating the synchronizing effect of the environment. Migratory species show a variety of different strategies in how they disperse to and aggregate on nonbreeding grounds, ranging from completely shared nonbreeding grounds to multiple different ones. Depending on the sensitivity to environmental conditions off the breeding grounds, we can expect that migration and overwintering strategies will impact the extent and spatial pattern of population synchrony on the breeding grounds. Here, we use spatial population-dynamic modeling and simulations to investigate the relationship between seasonal environmental autocorrelation and migration characteristics. Our model shows that the effects of environmental autocorrelation experienced off the breeding ground on population synchrony depend on the number and size of nonbreeding grounds, and how populations migrate in relation to neighboring populations. When populations migrated to multiple nonbreeding grounds, spatial population synchrony increased with increasing environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds. Populations that migrated to the same place as near neighbors had higher synchrony at short distances than populations that migrated randomly. However, synchrony declined less across increasing distances for the random migration strategy. The differences in synchrony between migration strategies were most pronounced when the environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds was low. These results show the importance of considering migration when studying spatial population synchrony and predicting patterns of synchrony and population viability under global environmental change. Climate change and habitat loss and fragmentation may cause range shifts and changes in migratory strategies, as well as changes in the mean and spatial autocorrelation of the environment, which can alter the scale and patterns observed in spatial population synchrony.

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life-history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log-transformed population growth rates or log-transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short-distance migrant (n = 86) and long-distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short-distance migrants were more synchronized than long-distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species-specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

Population differences in the length and early-life dynamics of telomeres among European pied flycatchers

Telomere length and shortening rate are increasingly being used as biomarkers for long-term costs in ecological and evolutionary studies because of their relationships with survival and fitness. Both early-life conditions and growth, and later-life stressors can create variation in telomere shortening rate. Studies on between-population telomere length and dynamics are scarce, despite the expectation that populations exposed to varying environmental constraints would present divergent telomere length patterns. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a passerine bird breeding across Eurasia (from Spain to western Siberia) and migrating through the Iberian Peninsula to spend the nonbreeding period in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, different populations show marked differences in migration distance. We studied the large-scale variation of telomere length and early-life dynamics in the pied flycatcher by comparing six European populations across a north-south gradient (Finland, Estonia, England and Spain) predicting a negative effect of migration distance on adult telomere length, and of nestling growth on nestling telomere dynamics. There were clear population differences in telomere length, with English birds from midlatitudes having the longest telomeres. Telomere length did not thus show consistent latitudinal variation and was not linearly linked to differences in migration distance. Early-life telomere shortening rate tended to vary between populations. Fast growth was associated with shorter telomeres in the early life, but faster nestling growth affected telomeres more negatively in northern than southern populations. While the sources of between-population differences in telomere-related biology remain to be more intensively studied, our study illustrates the need to expand telomere studies at the between-population level.