The influence of climate variability on numbers of three waterbird species in Western Port, Victoria, 1973-2002

Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.

Effects of drought on the abundance and distribution of non-breeding shorebirds in central California, USA

Conservation of migratory species requires anticipating the potential impacts of extreme climatic events, such as extreme drought. During drought, reduced habitat availability for shorebirds creates the potential for changes in their abundance and distribution, in part because many species are highly mobile and rely on networks of interior and coastal habitats. Understanding how shorebirds responded to a recent drought cycle that peaked from 2013 to 2015 in central California, USA, will help optimize management of wetlands and fresh water for wildlife. In the Central Valley, a vast interior region that is characterized by a mosaic of wetlands and agricultural lands, we found 22% and 29% decreases in the annual abundance of shorebirds during periods of 3-year drought (2013–2015) and 2-year extreme drought (2014–2015), respectively, when compared to non-drought years. Lower abundance of shorebirds coincided with significant decreases in the mean proportion flooded of survey units (7% and 9%, respectively) that were reliant on fresh water. Drought was associated with lower abundance within both the interior Central Valley and coastal San Francisco Bay for greater and lesser yellowlegs (Tringa melanoleuca and T. flavipes) and long- and short-billed dowitchers (Limnodromus scolopaceus and L. griseus). Only dunlins (Calidris alpina) had patterns of abundance that suggested substantial shifts in distribution between the Central Valley and coastal regions of San Francisco Bay and Point Reyes. Our results indicate that drought has the potential to reduce, at least temporally, shorebird populations and flooded habitat in the Central Valley, and the ability to respond to drought by taking advantage of nearby coastal habitats may limit the long-term effects of drought on some species. Successful conservation strategies must balance the impacts of reduced habitat availability at interior sites with the ability of some migratory shorebirds to adapt rapidly to shifting distributions of resources.

Rain drives foraging decisions of an urban exploiter

Foraging decisions tend to drive individuals toward maximising energetic gains within a patchy environment. This study aims to determine the extent to which rainfall, and associated changes in food availability, can explain foraging decisions within a patchy urbanised landscape, using the Australian white ibis as a model species. Ibis density, food consumption rates and food abundance (both natural and anthropogenic) were recorded during dry and wet weather within urban parks in Sydney, Australia. Rainfall influenced ibis density in these urban parks. Of the four parks assessed, the site with the highest level of anthropogenic food and the lowest abundance of natural food (earthworms), irrespective of weather, was observed to have three times the density of ibis. Rainfall significantly increased the rate of earthworm consumption as well as their relative availability in all sites. Overall, these density and consumption measures indicate that anthropogenic derived foods, mainly from direct feeding by people, explain the apparent distribution of ibis across urban parks. However, there was evidence of prey-switching when the availability of natural foods increased following rainfall, perhaps reflecting selection of particular nutrients.

Changes in distribution of waterbirds following prolonged drought reflect habitat availability in coastal and inland regions

Provision of suitable habitat for waterbirds is a major challenge for environmental managers in arid and semiarid regions with high spatial and temporal variability in rainfall. It is understood in broad terms that to survive waterbirds must move according to phases of wet–dry cycles, with coastal habitats providing drought refugia and inland wetlands used during the wet phase. However, both inland and coastal wetlands are subject to major anthropogenic pressures, and the various species of waterbird may have particular habitat requirements and respond individualistically to spatiotemporal variations in resource distribution. A better understanding of the relationships between occurrence of waterbirds and habitat condition under changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures will help clarify patterns of habitat use and the targeting of investments in conservation. We provide the first predictive models of habitat availability between wet and dry phases for six widely distributed waterbird species at a large spatial scale. We first test the broad hypothesis that waterbirds are largely confined to coastal regions during a dry phase. We then examine the contrasting results among the six species, which support other hypotheses erected on the basis of their ecological characteristics. There were large increases in area of suitable habitat in inland regions in the wet year compared with the dry year for all species, ranging from 4.14% for Australian White Ibis to 31.73% for Eurasian Coot. With over half of the suitable habitat for three of the six species was located in coastal zones during drought, our study highlights the need to identify and conserve coastal drought refuges. Monitoring of changes in extent and condition of wetlands, combined with distribution modeling of waterbirds, will help support improvements in the conservation and management of waterbirds into the future.

Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Understanding Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) infection dynamics in wildlife is crucial because of possible virus spill over to livestock and humans. Studies from the northern hemisphere have suggested several ecological and environmental drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds. To determine if the same drivers apply in the southern hemisphere, where more irregular environmental conditions prevail, we investigated AIV prevalence in ducks in relation to biotic and abiotic factors in south-eastern Australia. We sampled duck faeces for AIV and tested for an effect of bird numbers, rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and long-term ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) patterns on AIV prevalence. We demonstrate a positive long term effect of ENSO-related rainfall on AIV prevalence. We also found a more immediate response to rainfall where AIV prevalence was positively related to rainfall in the preceding 3-7 months. Additionally, for one duck species we found a positive relationship between their numbers and AIV prevalence, while prevalence was negatively or not affected by duck numbers in the remaining four species studied. In Australia largely non-seasonal rainfall patterns determine breeding opportunities and thereby influence bird numbers. Based on our findings we suggest that rainfall influences age structures within populations, producing an influx of immunologically naïve juveniles within the population, which may subsequently affect AIV infection dynamics. Our study suggests that drivers of AIV dynamics in the northern hemisphere do not have the same influence at our south-east Australian field site in the southern hemisphere due to more erratic climatological conditions.

Variation at the DRD4 locus is associated with wariness and local site selection in urban black swans

Background

Interactions between wildlife and humans are increasing. Urban animals are often less wary of humans than their non-urban counterparts, which could be explained by habituation, adaptation or local site selection. Under local site selection, individuals that are less tolerant of humans are less likely to settle in urban areas. However, there is little evidence for such temperament-based site selection, and even less is known about its underlying genetic basis. We tested whether site selection in urban and non-urban habitats by black swans (Cygnus atratus) was associated with polymorphisms in two genes linked to fear in animals, the dopamine receptor D₄ (DRD4) and serotonin transporter (SERT) genes.

Results

Wariness in swans was highly repeatable between disturbance events (repeatability = 0.61) and non-urban swans initiated escape from humans earlier than urban swans. We found no inter-individual variation in the SERT gene, but identified five DRD4 genotypes and an association between DRD4 genotype and wariness. Individuals possessing the most common DRD4 genotype were less wary than individuals possessing rarer genotypes. As predicted by the local site selection hypothesis, genotypes associated with wary behaviour were over three times more frequent at the non-urban site. This resulted in moderate population differentiation at DRD4 (F_ST = 0.080), despite the sites being separated by only 30 km, a short distance for this highly-mobile species. Low population differentiation at neutrally-selected microsatellite loci and the likely occasional migration of swans between the populations reduces the likelihood of local site adaptations.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that wariness in swans is partly genetically-determined and that wary swans settle in less-disturbed areas. More generally, our findings suggest that site-specific management strategies may be necessary that consider the temperament of local animals.

Counts of selected duck species at Corner Inlet, Victoria: changes in relation to local and distant meteorological variations

Numbers of four duck species present within a study area in a tidal embayment (Corner Inlet, south-eastern Australia) were obtained between 1977 and 2002. The species involved were Chestnut (Anas castanea) and Grey (A. gracilis) Teal, Pacific Black Duck (A. superciliosa) and Australian Shelduck (Tadorna tadornoides) and counts are compared with local and distant meteorological data. Chestnut and Grey Teal were most, and Australian Shelduck least, abundant. There was considerable monthly and annual variation; generally, teal and Pacific Black Duck were most numerous in summer and autumn, whereas Shelduck peaked somewhat earlier. Peak abundance corresponded to times of higher inter-annual variation and, apart from Shelduck, abundance had significant, usually weak, negative associations with rainfall though not beyond a one season lag. Pacific Black Duck numbers showed larger, more persistent and positive association with streamflows, particularly in south-eastern Australia, whereas associations for Chestnut Teal were negative and included lags of up to seven seasons. Grey Teal counts showed few significant correlations with streamflow, and Australian Shelduck numbers showed none. Abundance in some species was negatively related to the Southern Oscillation Index in the season of the count, but for Australian Shelduck there was a positive correlation for two seasons previously. Few significant relationships occurred between abundance in Corner Inlet and other Australian waterfowl abundance measures, although annual counts at Corner Inlet were positively correlated with Victorian Summer Waterfowl Counts and negatively with wetland area obtained during East Australia Counts. To an extent, results reflect current views on species' biologies, with birds moving into and out of a saline habitat determined by breeding conditions elsewhere. As found elsewhere, there were some relationships with meteorological variables, though strength and direction varied, perhaps reflecting species' plasticity in responses to rain events at local or distant scale and time.