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Gu S, Qi T, Rohr JR, Liu X. Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:2004-2027. [PMID: 37932385 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02235-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Accepted: 09/21/2023] [Indexed: 11/08/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shimin Gu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Qi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jason R Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Xuan Liu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
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2
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Ponomarev VI, Klobukov GI, Napalkova VV, Akhanaev YB, Pavlushin SV, Yakimova ME, Subbotina AO, Picq S, Cusson M, Martemyanov VV. Phenological Features of the Spongy Moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), in the Northernmost Portions of Its Eurasian Range. INSECTS 2023; 14:insects14030276. [PMID: 36975961 PMCID: PMC10057557 DOI: 10.3390/insects14030276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The spongy moth, Lymatria dispar, is a classic example of an invasive pest accidentally introduced from Europe to North America, where it has become one of the most serious forest defoliators, as in its native range. The present study was aimed at (i) identifying the current northern limit of L. dispar's Eurasian range and exploring its northward expansion in Canada using pheromone trap data, and (ii) comparing northern Eurasian populations with those from central and southern regions with respect to male flight phenology, the sums of effective temperatures (SETs) above the 7 °C threshold necessary for development to the adult stage, and heat availability. We show that the range of L. dispar in Eurasia now reaches the 61st parallel, and comparisons with historical data identify the average speed of spread as 50 km/year. We also document the northern progression of L. dispar in southern Canada, where the actual northern boundary of its range remains to be identified. We show that the median date of male flight does not vary greatly between northern and southern regions of the spongy moth range in Eurasia despite climate differences. Synchronization of flight at different latitudes of the range is associated with an acceleration of larval development in northern Eurasian populations. Similar changes in developmental rate along a latitudinal gradient have not been documented for North American populations. Thus, we argue that this feature of spongy moths from northern Eurasia poses a significant invasive threat to North America in terms of enhanced risks for rapid northward range expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasiliy I. Ponomarev
- Institute Botanic Garden UB RAS, 8 Marta Str., 202a, 620144 Ekaterinburg, Russia
| | - Georgiy I. Klobukov
- Institute Botanic Garden UB RAS, 8 Marta Str., 202a, 620144 Ekaterinburg, Russia
| | | | - Yuriy B. Akhanaev
- Institute of Animal Systematics and Ecology SB RAS, Frunze Str. 11, 630091 Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Sergey V. Pavlushin
- Institute of Animal Systematics and Ecology SB RAS, Frunze Str. 11, 630091 Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Maria E. Yakimova
- Institute of Animal Systematics and Ecology SB RAS, Frunze Str. 11, 630091 Novosibirsk, Russia
- Department of Natural Sciences, Novosibirsk State University, Pirogova 2, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Anna O. Subbotina
- Institute of Animal Systematics and Ecology SB RAS, Frunze Str. 11, 630091 Novosibirsk, Russia
- Department of Natural Sciences, Novosibirsk State University, Pirogova 2, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
| | - Sandrine Picq
- Laurentian Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada, Quebec City, QC G1V 4C7, Canada
| | - Michel Cusson
- Laurentian Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada, Quebec City, QC G1V 4C7, Canada
| | - Vyacheslav V. Martemyanov
- Institute of Animal Systematics and Ecology SB RAS, Frunze Str. 11, 630091 Novosibirsk, Russia
- Biological Institute, National Research Tomsk State University, Lenina Str. 36, 63450 Tomsk, Russia
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Walter JA, Rodenberg CA, Stovall AEL, Nunez-Mir GC, Onufrieva KS, Johnson DM. Evaluating the success of treatments that slow spread of an invasive insect pest. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2021; 77:4607-4613. [PMID: 34087042 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6500] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2020] [Revised: 05/22/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Treatments for the suppression and eradication of insect populations undergo substantial testing to ascertain their efficacy and safety, but the generally limited spatial and temporal scope of such studies limit knowledge of how contextual factors encountered in operational contexts shape the relative success of pest management treatments. These contextual factors potentially include ecological characteristics of the treated area, or the timing of treatments relative to pest phenology and weather events. We used an extensive database on over 1000 treatments of nascent populations of Lymantria dispar (L.) (gypsy moth) to examine how place-based and time-varying conditions shape the success of management treatments. RESULTS We found treatment success to vary across states and years, and to be highest in small treatment blocks that are isolated from other populations. In addition, treatment success tended to be lower in treatment blocks with open forest canopies, possibly owing to challenges of effectively distributing treatments in these areas. CONCLUSIONS Our findings emphasize the importance of monitoring for early detection of nascent gypsy moth colonies in order to successfully slow the spread of the invasion. Additionally, operations research should address best practices for effectively treating with patchy and open forest canopies. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Walter
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Ronin Institute for Independent Scholarship, Montclair, NJ, USA
| | - Clare A Rodenberg
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Atticus E L Stovall
- Geographical Sciences Department, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | | | - Ksenia S Onufrieva
- Department of Entomology, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Derek M Johnson
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
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Haynes KJ, Walter JA, Liebhold AM. Population spatial synchrony enhanced by periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing. Proc Biol Sci 2019; 286:20182828. [PMID: 31138079 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.2828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Explaining why fluctuations in abundances of spatially disjunct populations often are correlated through time is a major goal of population ecologists. We address two hypotheses receiving little to no testing in wild populations: (i) that population cycling facilitates synchronization given weak coupling among populations, and (ii) that the ability of periodic external forces to synchronize oscillating populations is a function of the mismatch in timescales (detuning) between the force and the population. Here, we apply new analytical methods to field survey data on gypsy moth outbreaks. We report that at timescales associated with gypsy moth outbreaks, spatial synchrony increased with population periodicity via phase locking. The extent to which synchrony in temperature and precipitation influenced population synchrony was associated with the degree of mismatch in dominant timescales of oscillation. Our study provides new empirical methods and rare empirical evidence that population cycling and low detuning can promote population spatial synchrony.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyle J Haynes
- 1 The Blandy Experimental Farm, University of Virginia , Boyce, VA , USA.,2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia , Charlottesville, VA , USA
| | - Jonathan A Walter
- 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia , Charlottesville, VA , USA
| | - Andrew M Liebhold
- 3 US Forest Service Northern Research Station , Morgantown, WV 26505 , USA.,4 Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences , Praha 6 - Suchdol, Czechia 16521 , Czech Republic
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Iterative Models for Early Detection of Invasive Species across Spread Pathways. FORESTS 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/f10020108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.
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Grayson KL, Johnson DM. Novel insights on population and range edge dynamics using an unparalleled spatiotemporal record of species invasion. J Anim Ecol 2017; 87:581-593. [PMID: 28892141 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2017] [Accepted: 08/26/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Quantifying the complex spatial dynamics taking place at range edges is critical for understanding future distributions of species, yet very few systems have sufficient data or the spatial resolution to empirically test these dynamics. This paper reviews how data from a large-scale pest management programme have provided important contributions to the fields of population dynamics and invasion biology. The invasion of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) is well-documented from its introduction near Boston, Massachusetts USA in 1869 to its current extent of over 900,000 km2 in Eastern North America. Over the past two decades, the USDA Forest Service Slow the Spread (STS) programme for managing the future spread of gypsy moth has produced unrivalled spatiotemporal data across the invasion front. The STS programme annually deploys a grid of 60,000-100,000 pheromone-baited traps, currently extending from Minnesota to North Carolina. The data from this programme have provided the foundation for investigations of complex population dynamics and the ability to examine ecological hypotheses previously untestable outside of theoretical venues, particularly regarding invasive spread and Allee effects. This system provides empirical data on the importance of long-distance dispersal and time-lags on population establishment and spatial spread. Studies showing high rates of spatiotemporal variation of the range edge, from rapid spread to border stasis and even retraction, highlight future opportunities to test mechanisms that influence both invasive and native species ranges. The STS trap data have also created a unique opportunity to study low-density population dynamics and quantify Allee effects with empirical data. Notable contributions include evidence for spatiotemporal variation in Allee effects, demonstrating empirical links between Allee effects and spatial spread, and testing mechanisms of population persistence and growth rates at range edges. There remain several outstanding questions in spatial ecology and population biology that can be tested within this system, such as the scaling of local ecological processes to large-scale dynamics across landscapes. The gypsy moth is an ideal model of how important ecological questions can be answered by thinking more broadly about monitoring data.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Derek M Johnson
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
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Walter JA, Firebaugh AL, Tobin PC, Haynes KJ. Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate-finding failure. Ecology 2017; 97:3389-3401. [PMID: 27912015 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2016] [Revised: 08/10/2016] [Accepted: 08/31/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Range expansions are a function of population growth and dispersal, and nascent populations often must overcome demographic Allee effects (positive density dependence at low population densities) driven by factors such as mate-finding failure. Given the importance of individual movement to mate finding, links between landscape structure and movement may be critical to range expansion; however, landscape effects on other factors including mortality may be equally or more important. In one of the most comprehensive investigations of the interactions of these processes to date, we combined field experiments, simulation modeling, and analysis of empirical spread patterns to investigate how landscape structure affected the spread of the gypsy moth in Virginia and West Virginia. In experiments designed to assess how landscape attributes affect mate finding, we found adult males resisted leaving forest patches and the probability of locating a pheromone source declined more rapidly over distance in non-forest matrix than in forest. We used these findings to develop individual-based simulation models of gypsy moth population dynamics and spread in complex patch-matrix landscapes. The models produced an Allee effect that strengthened with reductions in forested area, but owing more so to dispersal mortality than to effects on mate location. Predicted maximum rates of population spread grew with increases in forest area due to increasing success of long-distance transport events. Evaluations of empirical data showed relationships between spread rates and landscape structure largely consistent with model predictions. We conclude rates of spread were largely driven by long-distance dispersal events, the success of which was influenced primarily by dispersal mortality of larvae in unsuitable matrix, and that landscape effects on mate location played a secondary role. Though influences of landscape structure on mate location appear to be unimportant to the spread of the gypsy moth, we predict they would have stronger effects on more dispersive species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Walter
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, Virginia, 22904, USA.,Blandy Experimental Farm, University of Virginia, 400 Blandy Farm Lane, Boyce, Virginia, 22620, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, 2101 Constant Avenue, Lawrence, Kansas, 66047, USA
| | - Ariel L Firebaugh
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, Virginia, 22904, USA.,Blandy Experimental Farm, University of Virginia, 400 Blandy Farm Lane, Boyce, Virginia, 22620, USA
| | - Patrick C Tobin
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, 4000 15th Avenue NE, Seattle, Washington, 98195, USA
| | - Kyle J Haynes
- Blandy Experimental Farm, University of Virginia, 400 Blandy Farm Lane, Boyce, Virginia, 22620, USA
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All quiet on the western front? Using phenological inference to detect the presence of a latent gypsy moth invasion in Northern Minnesota. Biol Invasions 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-016-1248-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Walter JA, Meixler MS, Mueller T, Fagan WF, Tobin PC, Haynes KJ. How topography induces reproductive asynchrony and alters gypsy moth invasion dynamics. J Anim Ecol 2014; 84:188-98. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2013] [Accepted: 07/08/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A. Walter
- Department of Environmental Sciences; University of Virginia; Charlottesville VA 22904 USA
- Blandy Experimental Farm; University of Virginia; 400 Blandy Farm Lane Boyce VA 22620 USA
| | - Marcia S. Meixler
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources; Rutgers University; New Brunswick NJ 08901 USA
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Patrick C. Tobin
- USDA Forest Service; Northern Research Station 180 Canfield Street Morgantown WV 26505 USA
| | - Kyle J. Haynes
- Blandy Experimental Farm; University of Virginia; 400 Blandy Farm Lane Boyce VA 22620 USA
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