Seventeen-year trends in spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens in a boreal environment

Common snowdrop as a climate change bioindicator in Czechia

The phenological response to climate change differs among species. We examined the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) in connection with meteorological variables in Czechia in the period 1923-2021. The long-term series were analyzed from phenological and meteorological stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Temporal and spatial evaluation (using Geographic Information System) in timing of beginning of flowering (BBCH 61) of G. nivalis was investigated under urban and rural settings. Furthermore, the detailed analysis of selected meteorological variables to onset of G. nivalis flowering was performed. Moreover, the trends (using Mann-Kendall test) and Pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological phase and meteorological variable were calculated. The main finding of this study was that the trend of the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop during the studied period (1923-2021) is negative, and it varies in urban and rural environments. The results showed most significant acceleration of the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis by - 0.20 day year^-1 in urban area and by - 0.11 day year^-1 in rural area. Above that, a major turning point occurred between 1987 and 1988 (both, in phenological observations and meteorological variables), and the variability of the beginning of flowering is significantly higher in the second period 1988-2021. On top of, the study proved that the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis closely correlated with number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) at both types of stations (urban and rural), and with mean air temperature in February, maximum air temperature in January, and minimum air temperature in March. The Mann-Kendall test showed a reduction in the number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) during 99 years period at Klatovy station (a long-term time series) by - 0.06 day year^-1, i.e., by - 5.94 days per the whole period. Conversely, air temperatures increase (maximum and minimum air temperature by 0.03 °C year^-1 (2.97 °C per the whole period) and average air temperature by 0.02 °C year^-1 (1.98 °C per the whole period)). Thus, our results indicate significant changes in the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis in Czechia as a consequence of climate change.

Thermal effect of the Middle Ural copper smelter (Russia) and growth of birch leaves

Toxic effects of industrial emissions on vegetation have been extensively studied, and at the same time indirect effects of pollution are less known. In 2011 and 2015, we studied temperature regime and leaf growth for Betula pubescens and B. pendula in deciduous forests near the Middle Ural copper smelter (MUCS). At two polluted sites (1 and 2 km from the smelter) and two unpolluted sites (16 and 27 km), we logged continuously air temperatures during the growing season (May-August) and measured leaves until completion of growth (May-June). Near MUCS, daily mean air temperatures were 0.7-1.0 °C higher with daily temperature range 2.2-2.7 °C greater than at distant sites. Daily air temperature range decreased from spring to midsummer, suggesting that the ability of vegetation to mitigate temperature variations increases with plant biomass, which peaks in midsummer. Growth of birch leaves near MUCS began 4-10 days earlier and completed 3-7 days earlier than far away. Thermal sum over the leaf growth period did not differ between areas in 2011, and in 2015 was lower in the polluted than in the unpolluted area. The earlier leaf growth completion near MUCS can be attributed to higher air temperatures and more rapid accumulation of required thermal sums.

Finnish National Phenological Network 1997-2017: from observations to trend detection

Plant phenological dataset collected at 42 sites across the mainland of Finland and covering the years 1997-2017 is presented and analysed for temporal trends. The dataset of n = 16,257 observations represents eleven plant species and fifteen phenological stages and results in forty different variables, i.e. phenophases. Trend analysis was carried out for n = 808 phenological time-series that contained at least 10 observations over the 21-year study period. A clear signal of advancing spring and early-summer phenology was detected, 3.4 days decade^-1, demonstrated by a high proportion of negative trends for phenophases occurring in April through June. Latitudinal correlation indicated stronger signal of spring and early-summer phenology towards the northern part of the study region. The autumn signal was less consistent and showed larger within-site variations than those observed in other seasons. More than 60% of the dates based on single tree/monitoring square were exactly the same as the averages from multiple trees/monitoring squares within the site. In particular, the reliability of data on autumn phenology was increased by multiple observations per site. The network is no longer active.

Influence of climate change on flowering season of birch in the Czech Republic

This paper analyzes a long-term (1991-2019) flowering period of birch in the Czech Republic. Temporal and spatial evaluation in timing of beginning and end of flowering (F_begin and F_end) and flowering period (F_period) of Betula pendula were investigated in different zones of the Czech Republic. The field observations were carried out at 44 sites of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute phenological network; the detailed analysis including growing degree days (GDD) evaluation to F_begin and F_end onsets and time of flowering were made at 9 sites in different altitudes. The trends and Pearson's correlation coefficients between F_begin (F_end) and GDDs were calculated as well. The timing of both phenological stages showed a significant advance to earlier onsets (e.g., - 7.0 d per decade at Měděnec station) and the time of flowering shortens (e.g., - 3.8 d per decade at Rokytnice station). Nevertheless, the most marked shift was observed for mountain area in the north-western and north-eastern part of the Czech Republic. In contrast, the smallest shift was found in the southern part of the Czech Republic. The shift of the GDD values fluctuates from negative to positive values. Pearson's correlation coefficients calculated for both phenophases and period of flowering of Betula pendula showed the highest values in F_period (e.g., 0.846 at Modrava station) and in F_end (e.g., 0.711 at Rokytnice station) as well. Thus, our results indicate due to global warming symptoms that birch pollen allergy may appear earlier in the year but for a shorter period.

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short-term and long-term natural soil warming

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming-induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground-level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short- and long-term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming-driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high-latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming-induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C-sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate change.

The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications

In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.

Competitive success of southern populations of Betula pendula and Sorbus aucuparia under simulated southern climate experiment in the subarctic

Global warming has been commonly accepted to facilitate species' range shifts across latitudes. Cross-latitudinal transplantations support this; many tree species can well adapt to new geographical areas. However, these studies fail to capture species' adaptations to new light environment because the experiments were not designed to explicitly separate species' responses to light and temperature. Here we tested reaction norms of tree seedlings in reciprocal transplantations 1,000 km apart from each other at two latitudes (60°N and 69°N). In contrast to past studies, we exposed our experimental plants to same temperature in both sites (temperature of 60°N growing site is recorded to adjust temperature of 69°N site in real time via Internet connection) while light environment (photoperiod, light quality) remained ambient. Shoot elongation and autumn coloration were studied in seedlings of two deciduous trees (Betula pendula and Sorbus aucuparia), which were expected to respond differently to day length. Sorbus as a member of Rosaceae family was assumed to be indifferent to photoperiod, while Betula responds strongly to day length. We hypothesized that (1) southern and northern populations of both species perform differently; (2) southern populations perform better in both sites; (3) autumn phenology of southern populations may delay in the northern site; (4) and Sorbus aucuparia is less dependent on light environment. According to the hypotheses, shoot elongation of northern population was inherently low in both species. An evolutionary consequence of this may be a competitive success of southern populations under warming climate. Southern population of B. pendula was delayed in autumn coloration, but not in growth cessation. Sorbus aucuparia was less responsive to light environment. The results suggest that light provides selection pressure in range shifts, but the response is species dependent.