Prognostic factors in critically ill patients with hematological malignancy admitted to the general intensive care unit: a single-center experience in Japan

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 1-Year Mortality in Patients With a Hematologic Malignancy Admitted to the ICU

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a prediction model for 1-year mortality in patients with a hematologic malignancy acutely admitted to the ICU.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five university hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2015.

PATIENTS

A total of 1097 consecutive patients with a hematologic malignancy were acutely admitted to the ICU for at least 24 h.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We created a 13-variable model from 22 potential predictors. Key predictors included active disease, age, previous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mechanical ventilation, lowest platelet count, acute kidney injury, maximum heart rate, and type of malignancy. A bootstrap procedure reduced overfitting and improved the model's generalizability. This involved estimating the optimism in the initial model and shrinking the regression coefficients accordingly in the final model. We assessed performance using internal-external cross-validation by center and compared it with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. Additionally, we evaluated clinical usefulness through decision curve analysis. The overall 1-year mortality rate observed in the study was 62% (95% CI, 59-65). Our 13-variable prediction model demonstrated acceptable calibration and discrimination at internal-external validation across centers (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI, 0.63-0.77), outperforming the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model (C-statistic 0.61; 95% CI, 0.57-0.65). Decision curve analysis indicated overall net benefit within a clinically relevant threshold probability range of 60-100% predicted 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our newly developed 13-variable prediction model predicts 1-year mortality in hematologic malignancy patients admitted to the ICU more accurately than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. This model may aid in shared decision-making regarding the continuation of ICU care and end-of-life considerations.

Risk factors and predictive model for mortality in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation admitted to the intensive care unit

Hematological malignant tumors represent a group of major diseases carrying a substantial risk to the lives of affected patients. Risk factors for mortality in critically ill patients have garnered substantial attention in recent research endeavors. The present research aimed to identify factors predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Furthermore, the present study analyzed and compared the mortality rate between patients undergoing haploidentical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (Haplo-SCT) and those undergoing identical sibling donor (ISD) transplantation. A total of 108 patients were included in the present research, 83 (76.9%) of whom underwent Haplo-SCT. ICU mortality was reported in 58 (53.7%) patients, with the values of 55.4 and 48.0% associated with Haplo-SCT and ISD, respectively (P=0.514). The mortality rate of patients undergoing Haplo-SCT was comparable to that of patients undergoing ISD transplantation. The present study found that reduced hemoglobin, elevated total bilirubin, elevated brain natriuretic peptide, elevated fibrinogen degradation products, need for vasoactive drugs at ICU admission, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and elevated APACHE II scores were independent risk factors for ICU mortality. Among patients presenting with 5-7 risk factors, the ICU mortality reached 100%, significantly exceeding that of other patients. The present research revealed that ICU mortality rates remain elevated among patients who underwent allo-HSCT, especially those presenting multiple risk factors. However, the outcome of patients undergoing Haplo-SCT were comparable to those of patients undergoing ISD transplants.

Prognostic factors for patients with hematologic malignancies admitted to the intensive care unit: is allogeneic transplantation still a risk factor?

The rate of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with hematologic malignancies is high. The risk factors for this were inconsistent across several previous studies, and there is currently no accepted consensus around risk factors for these patients. We aimed to identify which prognostic factors were associated with ICU mortality in critically ill patients with hematologic malignancies, nearly half of which were allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients. In addition, we aimed to compare the characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with and without allogenic allo-HSCT. In total, 217 patients with hematologic malignancies were enrolled consecutive, 119 (54.8%) of whom underwent HSCT (allo-HSCT: n = 115). All survivors were followed up with until August 1, 2022. The rate of ICU mortality in this cohort was 54.4%: 55.5 and 53.1% for the patients with and without HSCT, respectively (p = 0.724). The probabilities of survival after ICU admission were also comparable between the patients who had allo-HSCT and those who did not. A multivariable analysis revealed that cerebrovascular disease, hyperlactic acidemia on the day of ICU admission, lower platelet count, use of vasoactive drugs, and absence of noninvasive ventilation on the day of ICU admission were independent risk factors for ICU mortality. For patients with three to five of these risk factors, the rate of ICU mortality was as high as 84.6%, which was significantly higher than that of other patients. In this study, the ICU mortality rate in patients with hematologic malignancies was still high, particularly for those with multiple risk factors. However, allo-HSCT was not found to be a risk factor for ICU mortality.