New prognostic score for the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Decision tree algorithm to predict mortality in incurable cancer: a new prognostic model

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a new prognostic model to predict 90-day mortality in patients with incurable cancer.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, patients with incurable cancer receiving palliative care (n = 1322) were randomly divided into two groups: development (n = 926, 70%) and validation (n = 396, 30%). A decision tree algorithm was used to develop a prognostic model with clinical variables. The accuracy and applicability of the proposed model were assessed by the C-statistic, calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Albumin (75.2%), C reactive protein (CRP) (47.7%) and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) ≥50% (26.5%) were the variables that most contributed to the classification power of the prognostic model, named Simple decision Tree algorithm for predicting mortality in patients with Incurable Cancer (acromion STIC). This was used to identify three groups of increasing risk of 90-day mortality: STIC-1 - low risk (probability of death: 0.30): albumin ≥3.6 g/dL, CRP <7.8 mg/dL and KPS ≥50%; STIC-2 - medium risk (probability of death: 0.66 to 0.69): albumin ≥3.6 g/dL, CRP <7.8 mg/dL and KPS <50%, or albumin ≥3.6 g/dL and CRP ≥7.8 mg/dL; STIC-3 - high risk (probability of death: 0.79): albumin <3.6 g/dL. In the validation dataset, good accuracy (C-statistic ≥0.71), Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.12 and area under the ROC curve=0.707 were found.

CONCLUSIONS

STIC is a valid, practical tool for stratifying patients with incurable cancer into three risk groups for 90-day mortality.

The Prognostic Utility of a Geriatric Assessment for Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Receiving Gemcitabine-based Chemotherapy: A Prospective Observational Study

Objective To evaluate the effect of a pretreatment geriatric assessment on the clinical outcomes in older patients with unresectable or recurrent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) scheduled to receive gemcitabine (GEM)/GEM+nab-paclitaxel (GnP). Patients Older patients with unresectable PDAC scheduled to receive GEM/GnP who visited Kyorin University Hospital and cooperating institutions were enrolled and followed from April 2015 to March 2020. The maximum observation period was two years. All patients underwent a cancer-specific geriatric assessment (CSGA) and optional geriatric assessment (GA) before treatment initiation and two months after the start of treatment. The patients' background characteristics, tumor progression, tumor site, and regimen (GEM/GnP) were examined in a Cox proportional hazards model. The relationship between the overall survival (OS) and GA score was also determined. Eligible patients (age ≥70 years old with histopathologically confirmed unresectable or recurrent PDAC) were scheduled to receive first-line chemotherapy. Results The performance status (PS) and activities of daily living (ADL)/instrumental ADL (IADL) scores at baseline correlated with the OS. Furthermore, even in cases with normal baseline values, lower Frontal Assessment Battery scores and higher Geriatric Depression Scale-Short Form scores after treatment initiation were significantly correlated with OS. Conclusion The baseline PS, ADL, and IADL may be prognostic factors in older PDAC patients. In addition, a normal frontal lobe function and depression scores prior to treatment initiation that rapidly worsened during treatment were independently associated with a reduced OS. Selecting appropriate interventions and improving the therapeutic environment may prolong the OS in such patients.

Albumin and Derived Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio is a Novel Prognostic Factor for Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Multidisciplinary treatment combining neoadjuvant treatment (NAT) and surgery has slightly improved the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Although various biomarkers targeting nutrition and inflammation are associated with cancer prognosis, most studies have focused on conditions prior to NAT. Developing real-time and sensitive biomarkers that monitor changes in systemic conditions during NAT is important. We established a novel nutritional and inflammatory index, represented as the albumin to derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (Alb-dNLR), and calculated the change in Alb-dNLR (ΔAlb-dNLR) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCT). In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether ΔAlb-dNLR is associated with prognosis in patients with ESCC.

METHODS

We investigated 172 patients who underwent nCT before esophagectomy between April 2010 and March 2018. The dNLR was calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to (white blood cell count - neutrophil count), Alb-dNLR was calculated by dividing the serum albumin level by the dNLR, and ΔAlb-dNLR was evaluated by dividing the post-Alb-dNLR by the pre-Alb-dNLR. Patients were divided into 'high' and 'low' groups according to the ΔAlb-dNLR.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine patients (22.7%) had a low ΔAlb-dNLR (≤ 0.8), and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rates in patients with low and high ΔAlb-dNLR were 38.1% and 53.6%, respectively (p = 0.0072). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that estimated blood loss (p = 0.044), pathological T stage (p = 0.0005), pathological N stage (p = 0.017), and ΔAlb-dNLR (p = 0.005) were independent prognostic factors for OS.

CONCLUSIONS

ΔAlb-dNLR is a useful prognostic factor for OS in patients with ESCC receiving nCT.

Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Few studies have reported the impact of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on the objective response of patients with locally advanced unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We evaluated the factors predicting therapeutic effectiveness and the short- and long-term outcomes in patients with T4b ESCC treated with CRT.

METHODS

We included 155 patients with T4b ESCC who underwent CRT at the Department of Surgery, Gastroenterological Center, Yokohama City University, between January 2000 and December 2018. Responders were defined as patients who demonstrated a complete response (CR) or partial response (PR). Multivariate analysis for objective response was performed using a logistic regression model, and prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Among the 155 patients included, 20 and 84 patients demonstrated a CR and PR, respectively, resulting in a response rate of 67.1%. The median overall survival (OS) was 15.2 months, and the 3-year survival rate was 32.1%. High Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and advanced N-category independently predicted the objective response to CRT. GPS and objective response were independent prognostic factors for OS. There was no significant difference in the long-term survival of responders who received subsequent chemotherapy or salvage surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

High GPS and advanced N-category predicted a poor objective response to CRT in patients with T4b ESCC. Therefore, chemotherapeutic regimens with a higher efficacy are required. The indications for salvage surgery for responders should be carefully considered, with care taken to avoid complications. To confirm this, prospective randomized controlled studies are necessary.

Albumin-Derived NLR Score is a Novel Prognostic Marker for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Multidisciplinary treatment for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has improved outcomes, but the prognosis for ESCC remains poor. Nutritional and inflammatory indicators are reported to be associated with cancer prognosis. The combination of albumin and the derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (Alb-dNLR) score was established to measure the immune system and nutritional status. The authors hypothesized that the Alb-dNLR score could be a new reliable prognostic factor for ESCC patients.

METHODS

The study evaluated 269 patients who underwent esophagectomy between April 2010 and March 2018, including 185 patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The Alb-dNLR score was calculated using serum albumin and the dNLR. The dNLR was calculated as neutrophils to (leukocyte-neutrophil count). The cutoff values of the albumin and dNLR for overall survival (OS) were determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients were divided into "high" and "low" groups according to the Alb-dNLR score.

RESULTS

A high Alb-dNLR score was found in 61 cases (22.7%). The 5-year OS was 34% in the high Alb-dNLR group and 66.2% in the low Alb-dNLR group (p < 0.0001). The 5-year cause-specific survival (CSS) was 51.5% in the high Alb-dNLR group and 74.7% in the low Alb-dNLR group (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the Alb-dNLR score was an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.198; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.460-3.263; p = 0.0002) and CSS (HR, 1.733; 95% CI, 1.035-2.835; p = 0.0371).

CONCLUSIONS

The Alb-dNLR score is an extremely useful, easy-to-use parameter to predict OS and CSS for ESCC patients.

C-Reactive Protein and C-Reactive Protein-Based Scores to Predict Survival in Esophageal and Junctional Adenocarcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has a poor prognosis; predictive markers of prognosis would facilitate advances in personalized therapy. C-reactive protein (CRP) and CRP-based scores are increasingly recommended across oncology; however, their role and value in EAC is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined CRP cut-point and scores and how they may best be applied in predicting survival in EAC.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in EMBASE, Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane, Scopus and CINAHL databases, from inception to 1st October 2020. Studies reporting data from adults with EAC including adenocarcinoma of the gastro-esophageal junction (AEG), pre-treatment CRP or CRP-based score and Hazard Ratio (HR) for survival were included. QUIPS tool assessed risk of bias. Meta-analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

A total of 819 records were screened. Eight papers were included, with data for 1475 people. CRP cut-points ranged from 2.8 to 10 mg/L. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and modified GPS were the most commonly reported scores. On meta-analysis, elevated preoperative GPS/mGPS was significantly associated with worse overall survival (hazards ratio [HR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-2.62, p = 0.002); results were similar in subgroup analyses of multimodal treatment, M0 disease, and R0 resection.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first review to evaluate comprehensively the evidence for CRP and CRP-based scores in EAC. Meta-analysis demonstrated that elevated preoperative GPS or mGPS was significantly associated with reduced overall survival in EAC, including AEG. There is insufficient evidence to support use of CRP alone. Future studies should examine GPS/mGPS in EAC prospectively, alone and combined with other prognostic markers.

The prevalence of cancer associated systemic inflammation: Implications of prognostic studies using the Glasgow Prognostic Score

The prognostic importance of SIR in patients with cancer is widely recognised. More recently it has become clear that the systemic inflammatory response is an important etiologic factor in the development of cancer cachexia. Two recent meta-analysis carried out in 2017 and 2018 were interrogated and the number of patients with specific cancer types were identified. The percentage of patients with operable cancer (n>28,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 21% to 38%. The percentage of patients with inoperable cancer (n>12,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 29% to 79%. Overall, the percentage of patients (n>40,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 28% to 63% according to tumour type. The most commonly studied cancer was colorectal cancer (n∼10,000 patients) and 40% were systemically inflamed.

Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, Prognostic Nutritional Index and ECOG Performance Score Predicts Survival Better than Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Some Inflammatory Indices in Metastatic Gastric Cancer

Background: Gastric carcinoma (GC) patients usually present with locally advanced or metastatic disease; therefore treatment aim is mainly palliation. In this study our purpose is to analyze the prognostic values of the sarcopenia index (SI), cachexia index (CIn) and other inflammatory indexes (advanced lung cancer inflammation index [ALI], modified Glasgow Prognostic Score [mGPS], prognostic index [PI], prognostic nutritional index [PNI] and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR]) in metastatic GC patients.Methods: Data from the files of metastatic GC patients, who applied to Medical Oncology outpatient clinic in Marmara University Pendik Education and Research Hospital between January 2011 and June 2016, were retrospectively reviewed. Five hundred seventy patients with gastric cancer were detected. Exclusion criteria were the inability to reach the patient surveys for prognostic index calculations, the presence of additional comorbidities to affect the laboratory parameters, and the absence of metastatic disease. Finally, 87 of these patients were included in this study. For SI calculation L3 level muscle area was measured from patients' computed tomography (CT) by a radiologist. SI reference value was obtained from western-EGWSOP (The European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People) and eastern (Harada Y, et al.) sources separately, as Turkey doesn't have a reference value for SI. NLR cutoff value was accepted as the median value of patients' NLR measurements. Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to assess independent prognostic factors. The area under the curve was used to compare the prognostic value of indexes.Results: The median length of follow-up of 87 patients was nine months (1-64 mo,/s), and 78 patients died during follow-up. Fifty-nine patients were male (63%), and the median age was 62 (range, 23-88). According to univariate analysis high mGPS and PI score, PNI level <45, NLR level ≥ 3.41, ALI level <18, CI level under 35, SI (Harada Y, et al) ≤44.5 for males and ≤36.5 for females, ECOG score ≥ 2, weight loss more than 10% during last 6 mo, BMI under 24 were poor prognostic factors. Age, gender, having multiple organ metastasis, history of gastric surgery, positivity C-erb-B2, SI (EGWSOP) ≤52.4 for males, and ≤38.4 for females did not have any impact on survival. According to multivariate analysis, high mGPS (score 2) (HR 2,494, 95% CI 1.25-4 .94, p = 0.02), PNI (score 1) (HR 4.2, 95% CI 1.73-10.1, p < 0.001) and ECOG score (≥2) (HR 1.541, 95% CI 1,089-4,214, p = 0.004) have been found to be independent prognostic factors which are determining the survival. mGPS was found to be more valuable than other indexes for predicting mortality by measuring the AUC with ROC analysis.Conclusions: In our study, mGPS, PNI and ECOG score were independent indicators for shorter survival in metastatic gastric cancer patients. mGPS and PNI, which can be done by using only serum CRP, albumin level and complete blood count, might be inexpensive, practical and beneficial to use in routine clinical practice to determine survival.

The prognostic value of tumor mutational burden and immune cell infiltration in esophageal cancer patients with or without radiotherapy

Growing evidence highlighted the tumor mutational burden (TMB) as an important feature of carcinogenesis and therapeutic efficacy in esophageal cancer (EC). Our study aimed to explore the genomic landscape and the correlation between TMB and immune cell infiltration in EC patients with or without radiotherapy. The EC patients were categorized into high TMB (TMB-H) and low TMB (TMB-L) groups by the ESTIMATE algorithm, and subgroup analysis was performed based on receiving radiotherapy or not. Univariate regression analysis indicated TMB and TNM stages as high-risk prognostic factors (Hazard ratio > 1 and P < 0.05). Multivariate regression analysis suggested TMB as an independent prognostic factor (Hazard ratio = 1.051, P = 0.003). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no significant difference of the overall survival (OS) between TMB-H and TMB-L groups (P = 0.082). However, EC patients without radiotherapy in the TMB-H group had significantly decreased OS (P = 0.038) and increased Tregs cell infiltration (P = 0.033). These results suggested TMB as a prognostic marker for EC patients. Especially for patients who did not receive radiotherapy, the prognosis of TMB-H patients was significantly poorer than that of TMB-L patients, which might result from the different regulatory T cell infiltration.

Prognostic role of pre-treatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in esophageal cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

In recent years, the role of pre-treatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) in prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC) has been investigated by several studies. This meta-analysis aimed to provide a more accurate and objective assessment of the prognostic value of pre-treatment CAR in EC.

Methods

Studies assessing the role of pre-treatment CAR in prognosis of EC were searched from PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library (last update by April 16, 2019). The hazard ratios (HRs) of CAR and the corresponding 95% CIs for overall survival (OS) or cancer-specific survival (CSS) in EC were extracted for pooled analysis.

Results

A total of eight observational studies including 2255 patients were collected. The pooled analysis showed that high CAR was related to worse OS in EC (pooled HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.40–2.35; P < 0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that the negative correlation between the CAR and OS was consistently demonstrated in subgroups stratified by country, pathological type, and cut-off value (P < 0.05). However, there was no relation between CAR and OS in subgroup of patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy at a proportion of 100% (HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.56–2.69; P = 0.715). In addition, high CAR was also related to worse CSS in EC (pooled HR = 2.61; 95% CI = 1.67–4.06; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

High pre-treatment CAR was an adverse prognostic factor for EC patients. More large-sample clinical trials are still needed to verify the prognostic value of pre-treatment CAR in EC.

The prognostic value of modified Glasgow prognostic score in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer: a Meta-analysis

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) asssessed prior to anticancer treatment in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC).Methods: A comprehensive search through PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library databases was performed to identify potential studies exploring the prognostic value of baseline mGPS in patients with ESCC. We combined the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association of mGPS with overall survival (OS).Results: A total of 10 studies including 3415 patients were analyzed and all patients were from Japan or China. A significant correlation between elevated mGPS and poor OS (HR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.14-2.41, P = 0.008) was observed. Subgroup analyses suggested that the country and therapy method may affect the effect of mGPS on predicting OS in ESCC and patients with mGPS 1 or two had poorer OS compared with those with mGPS 0 (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: 1.74-4.87, P<0.001; HR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.44-3.97, P = 0.001).Conclusions: Baseline mGPS might serve as a promising indicator for the OS in Chinese and Japanese patients with ESCC. More well-designed prospective studies with large samples are needed to verify our findings.

Prognostic value of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in esophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

In recent years, some studies suggested that the pretreatment C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) may be predictive for prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC), but their results were inconsistent. Therefore, the current meta-analysis was preformed to better determine the prognostic value of pretreatment CAR in EC. The PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and PubMed Central databases were searched up to January 10, 2019 to identify studies evaluating the correlation between CAR and prognosis of EC. The primary outcome was the overall survival (OS) and secondary outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to estimate the predictive role of CAR for prognosis in EC. Based on the results of this research, a total of 11 studies with 2930 patients diagnosed as EC were included. Pooled results suggested that elevated pretreatment CAR was significantly associated with poor OS (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.31-2.47, P < .001) with high heterogeneity (I² = 86.5%, P < .001) and poor CSS (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.33-2.22, P < .001) without heterogeneity (I² = 0.0%, P < .323); however, no significant association was observed between pretreatment CAR and DFS (HR = 1.41, 95% CI: 0.60-3.34, P = .429) with high heterogeneity (I² = 76.7%, P < .038). Subgroup analyses further manifested that EC patients with higher CAR had worse OS. An elevated pretreatment CAR may indicate poor survival in patients with EC. Thus, pretreatment CAR may serve as a promising biomarker in EC and could be used to predict prognosis and help decision-making in clinical work.

The prognostic value of pretreatment Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with esophageal cancer: a meta-analysis

Objectives

To examine the predictive role of Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) on long-term survival in esophageal cancer.

Method

Comprehensive searches of electronic databases were performed to identify potential studies that evaluated the prognostic value of pretreatment GPS in esophageal cancer patients. We combined the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association of GPS with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Results

A total of 21 studies including 6115 patients were analyzed. Compared with patients with GPS 0, patients with elevated GPS had poorer OS (HR =2.12, 95% CI: 1.83–2.45, P<0.001) and CSS (HR =2.16, 95% CI: 1.56–2.98, P<0.001); but no significant relationship was observed between the elevated GPS and DFS (HR=2.14, 95% CI:1.00–4.61, P=0.051). Subgroup analysis outcomes were similar to overall analyses.

Conclusion

Pretreatment GPS could serve as a valuable factor in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer. More well-designed prospective studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Inflammation-nutrition score predicts prognosis of patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Various inflammation-based prognostic scores have been associated with poor survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Data were collected retrospectively from 674 HCC patients who underwent curative resection. The correlation between INS (inflammation-nutrition score), BCLC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer) stage and inflammatory indices and overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) was examined.

RESULTS

An elevated INS was associated with both tumor and host clinical characteristics. The combination of INS and BCLC stage stratifies OS and DFS from 80% and 65% (INS = 0, stage A) to 0% (INS = 2, stage C). Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the INS was an independent predictor for OS and DFS, and was superior to inflammation-based scores. In addition, INS was demonstrated to be a prognostic factor for patients with early stage and had a higher AUC value in comparison with inflammation scores.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that the INS is an independent marker of poor prognosis in patients with resectable HCC, especially for those with early stage, and it provides complimentary prognostic information to BCLC stage, and may aid in treatment strategy.

The predictive and prognostic role of a novel ADS score in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients undergoing esophagectomy

Background

Chronic inflammation is deemed to play a significant effect on initiation and progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In current study, we investigated the prognostic and predictive role of albumin (Alb) to fibrinogen (Fib) ratio (AFR) and a novel AFR–Alb-derived neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) score (ADS) in ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy and compared them with Fib, Alb, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), dNLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR).

Materials and methods

A total of 153 clinical confirmed ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy between January 2011 and December 2013 were included in present study. We detected preoperative Alb, Fib and neutrophil, monocyte, lymphocyte and platelet count, and obtained overall survival (OS) by 3 years’ follow-up in the cases. X-tile software, Kaplan–Meier curve, Cox regression and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the predictive and prognostic role of them in ESCC patients.

Results

The optimal cut-off values of Fib, Alb, AFR, NLR, dNLR, PLR and LMR were 3.2 mg/dL, 38.2 g/L, 9.3, 2.1, 4.3, 145.9 and 2.3, respectively. High levels of Fib [(adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.148, 95% confidential interval (CI) (1.229–3.753)], dNLR (adjusted HR = 2.338, 95% CI 1.626–5.308) and PLR (adjusted HR = 1.964, 95% CI 1.129–3.415) as well as low AFR (adjusted HR = 2.381, 95% CI 1.152–4.926) and Alb (adjusted HR = 2.398, 95% CI 1.342–4.273) were significantly associated with decreased OS in ESCC patients. The survival predictive areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve of AFR, dNLR and Alb were higher than Fib and PLR, respectively. High ADS score was significantly associated with short 3 years’ OS of ESCC patients (adjusted HR = 2.94, 95% CI 1.70–5.08). Moreover, OS of ESCC patients receiving adjuvant radio-chemotherapy was longer than those without the treatment in high ADS score subgroup (p = 0.001), however, no significant survival difference was observed in the patients with or without treatment radio-chemotherapy (p = 0.297). Additionally, a significant difference was observed in c-index values of the nomograms including or without ADS (0.720 vs. 0.670, p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Preoperative ADS was a prospective biomarker to predict clinical efficacy of adjuvant radio-chemotherapy and clinical prognosis of ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy, and the score could apparently improve predicted efficacy of the nomogram.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12935-018-0648-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical significance of the C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio for the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic value of the C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) and compare it with other inflammation-based prognostic scores (Glasgow prognostic score, modified Glasgow prognostic score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, prognostic nutritional index and prognostic index) in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC). A database of 116 patients with primary ESCC who underwent treatment at the Division of Surgical Oncology at Nagasaki University Hospital between January 2007 and August 2014 was retrospectively reviewed and the correlations between CAR and overall survival (OS) were investigated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to assess independent prognostic factors. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the prognostic value of different scores. According to the receiver operator characteristics analysis, the recommended cut-off value for CAR was 0.042, with an AUC of 0.678 (sensitivity 31.1%, specificity 66.7%). Thus, patients were dichotomized into low (<0.042) and high (≥0.042) CAR groups. On multivariate analysis, CAR was found to be significantly associated with OS in patients with ESCC [hazard ratio (HR)=2.350; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.189-4.650; P=0.014], as was tumor-node-metastasis stage (HR=3.059; 95% CI: 1.422-6.582; P=0.004). In addition, CAR had a higher AUC value (0.678) compared with several other systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores (P<0.001). This study suggested that CAR is a novel and promising inflammation-based prognostic score in patients with ESCC. Due to its simplicity, affordability and availability, CAR may be important for improving clinical decision-making and may contribute to more rational study design and analyses.

The role of the systemic inflammatory response in predicting outcomes in patients with operable cancer: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Cancer remains a leading causes of death worldwide and an elevated systemic inflammatory response (SIR) is associated with reduced survival in patients with operable cancer. This review aims to examine the evidence for the role of systemic inflammation based prognostic scores in patients with operable cancers. A wide-ranging literature review using targeted medical subject headings for human studies in English was carried out in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CDSR databases until the end of 2016. The SIR has independent prognostic value, across tumour types and geographical locations. In particular neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (n = 158), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (n = 68), lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR) (n = 21) and Glasgow Prognostic Score/ modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS/mGPS) (n = 60) were consistently validated. On meta-analysis there was a significant relationship between elevated NLR and overall survival (OS) (p < 0.00001)/ cancer specific survival (CSS) (p < 0.00001), between elevated LMR and OS (p < 0.00001)/CSS (p < 0.00001), and elevated PLR and OS (p < 0.00001)/CSS (p = 0.005). There was also a significant relationship between elevated GPS/mGPS and OS (p < 0.00001)/CSS (p < 0.00001). These results consolidate the prognostic value of the NLR, PLR, LMR and GPS/mGPS in patients with resectable cancers. This is particularly true for the NLR/GPS/mGPS which should form part of the routine preoperative and postoperative workup.

Esophageal stenosis and the Glasgow Prognostic Score as independent factors of poor prognosis for patients with locally advanced unresectable esophageal cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy (exploratory analysis of JCOG0303)

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible prognostic factors and predictive accuracy of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) for patients with unresectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LAESCC) treated with chemoradiotherapy.

METHODS

One hundred forty-two patients were enrolled in JCOG0303 and assigned to the standard cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (PF)-radiotherapy (RT) group or the low-dose PF-RT group. One hundred thirty-one patients with sufficient data were included in this analysis. A Cox regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors of patients with unresectable LAESCC treated with PF-RT. The GPS was classified based on the baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin levels. Patients with CRP ≤1.0 mg/dL and albumin ≥3.5 g/dL were classified as GPS0. If only CRP was increased or only albumin was decreased, the patients were classified as GPS1, and the patients with CRP >1.0 mg/dL and albumin <3.5 g/dL were classified as GPS2.

RESULTS

The patients' backgrounds were as follows: median age (range), 62 (37-75); male/female, 119/12; ECOG PS 0/1/2, 64/65/2; and clinical stage (UICC 5th) IIB/III/IVA/IVB, 3/75/22/31. Multivariable analyses indicated only esophageal stenosis as a common factor for poor prognosis. In addition, overall survival tended to decrease according to the GPS subgroups (median survival time (months): GPS0/GPS1/GPS2 16.1/14.9/8.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Esophageal stenosis was identified as a candidate stratification factor for randomized trials of unresectable LAESCC patients. Furthermore, GPS represents a prognostic factor for LAESCC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION

UMIN000000861.

Combination of c-reactive protein and squamous cell carcinoma antigen in predicting postoperative prognosis for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus

Background

We initially proposed a useful and novel prognostic model, named CCS [Combination of c-reactive protein (CRP) and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC)], for predicting the postoperative survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

Two hundred and fifty-two patients with resectable ESCC were included in this retrospective study. A logistic regression was performed and yielded a logistic equation. The CCS was calculated by the combined CRP and SCC. The optimal cut-off value for CCS was evaluated by X-tile program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the predictive factors. In addition, a novel nomogram model was also performed to predict the prognosis for patients with ESCC.

Results

In the current study, CCS was calculated as CRP+6.33 SCC according to the logistic equation. The optimal cut-off value was 15.8 for CCS according to the X-tile program. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that high CCS group had a significantly poor 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) than low CCS group (10.3% vs. 47.3%, P <0.001). According to multivariate analyses, CCS (P =0.004), but not CRP (P =0.466) or SCC (P =0.926), was an independent prognostic factor. A nomogram could be more accuracy for CSS (Harrell's c-index: 0.70).

Conclusion

The CCS is a usefull and independent predictive factor in patients with ESCC.

Poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 inhibition decreases proliferation through G2/M arrest in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP1) plays a vital role in DNA repair and is expected to be an effective target in various malignancies. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinical and biological significance of PARP1 expression in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Immunohistochemical (IHC) staining was used to examine the association between PARP1 expression and the clinicopathological features of 86 patients with ESCC. The antitumor effect of small interfering RNA against PARP1 (siPARP1) was examined in a proliferation assay, and the mechanisms of this effect were investigated using western blot analysis and cell cycle assays. Cox multivariate analysis revealed that high expression of PARP1 in IHC staining was a statistically significant independent prognostic factor of poor overall survival (OS). The adjusted hazard ratio for OS in the group with high expression of PARP1 was 2.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.29–4.44; P=0.0051). In vitro assays showed that siPARP1 significantly decreased proliferation through G2/M arrest. Furthermore, western blot analysis showed that PARP1 was associated with the ataxia telangiectasia mutated-checkpoint kinase 2-cell division control 25c pathway. The present study suggests that PARP1 expression has a critical role in ESCC progression, and may be a clinical therapeutic target.

Overexpression of heat-shock factor 1 is associated with a poor prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Heat-shock factor 1 (HSF1) is the primary regulator of the response to various stressors. A previous study showed that HSF1 expression is associated with a poor prognosis in breast cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, the prognostic significance of HSF1 in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is unknown. Therefore, the present study investigated the association between HSF1 expression and the clinicopathological parameters of patients, as well as the association between HSF1 expression, and heat shock protein (Hsp)27, Hsp70 and Hsp90 expression induced by HSF1, by cDNA microarray and immunohistochemistry analyses. HSF1 protein and mRNA expression were assessed in resected specimens from 270 patients with ESCC in two independent cohorts. Hsp27, Hsp70 and Hsp90 expression were also assessed in 55/270 patients. Patients with high HSF1 expression had a significantly worse OS than those with low HSF1 expression in both cohorts. In multivariate analyses, pathological T stage [hazard ratio (HR), 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38-3.65; P=0.0008], pathological N stage (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.04-3.02; P=0.03) and HSF1 expression (HR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.48-3.64; P=0.0002) were statistically significant independent prognostic factors. Furthermore, Hsp27 and Hsp90 expression were significantly correlated with HSF1 expression (P<0.0001), but Hsp70 expression was not (P=0.38). These results indicate that HSF1 is a prognostic factor for patients with ESCC, and that Hsp27 and Hsp90, but not Hsp70, may be the downstream targets of HSF1 in ESCC.

Elevated preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocytes ratio predicts poor prognosis after esophagectomy in T1 esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been reported to predict the prognosis of various malignant tumors, including esophageal cancer. However, no previous reports have supported the use of the preoperative NLR as an independent prognostic marker focused on superficial (T1) esophageal cancer. The aim of this study was to elucidate the prognostic impact of the preoperative NLR in T1 esophageal cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective study recruited 245 consecutive patients with T1 esophageal cancer who underwent subtotal esophagectomy between 2005 and 2016. The relationship between the preoperative NLR and clinicopathological characteristics was analyzed.

RESULTS

The preoperative NLR was significantly higher in male patients (p = 0.029), patients with T1b esophageal cancer (p = 0.0274), and patients with venous vessel invasion (p = 0.0082). In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the elevated preoperative NLR was significantly associated with a poorer disease-free survival (p < 0.0001) and overall survival (p = 0.0004). In the multivariate Cox model, the elevated preoperative NLR was an independent prognostic marker for both disease-free survival (p = 0.0013) and overall survival (p = 0.0027).

CONCLUSION

An elevated preoperative NLR predicts poor prognosis in T1 esophageal cancer, suggesting the utility of the NLR as an easily measurable and generally available independent prognostic marker.

Inflammation-based prognostic system predicts postoperative survival of esophageal carcinoma patients with normal preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen and squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels

BACKGROUND

The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is an established inflammation-based system that is used to predict the prognosis for several types of malignancies. In this retrospective study, we assessed the postoperative survival of 725 patients with non-metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who had normal preoperative serum tumor marker levels according to the GPS.

METHODS

Among 1394 patients who underwent esophagectomy between August 2006 and December 2010, 725 with normal preoperative serum levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag) were enrolled. All demographic, pathologic, and survival data were analyzed retrospectively. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship with overall survival. The Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare the survival curves between patients with GPS 0 (group A) and 1 or 2 (group B).

RESULTS

Patients in group A exhibited significantly better 3- and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates (0.780 and 0.759, respectively) than those in group B (0.624 and 0.605, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, tumor length, pathological tumor-node-metastasis (pTNM) stage, venous invasion, lymph node metastasis, serum albumin and C-reactive protein levels, and GPS were associated with postoperative survival of these patients. Further multivariate analysis confirmed that GPS was an independent prognostic factor. The Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests demonstrated a significant difference in CSS between groups A and B (P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

GPS may be a valuable prognostic indicator for esophageal cancer patients with normal preoperative CEA and SCC-Ag serum levels.

Does the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) have a prognostic role in esophageal cancer?

BACKGROUND

The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), which combines indices of decreased plasma albumin and elevated CRP, has reported independent prognostic significance in colorectal cancer, but its value in upper gastrointestinal cancer is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of mGPS in patients with operable esophageal malignancy.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection with curative intent between January 2008 and June 2013 were included. The mGPS was scored as 0, 1, or 2 based on CRP(>10 mg/L) and albumin(<35g/L). The mGPS score (0 vs. 1/2 combined) was correlated with patient and tumor characteristics, and operative and oncologic outcomes.

RESULTS

Two hundred and twenty-three patients were included. Median (range) follow-up was 21(12-70) months. The mGPS was 0 in 174 patients(78%). mGPS was significantly associated with positive nodal status(P = 0.008) and stage ≥III (P = 0.017). There was a significant improvement in overall survival in patients with mGPS = 0 (47.8 vs. 37.5 months, P = 0.014) but in multivariate analysis, only TNM-stage and nodal status were found to be independent prognostic indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

mGPS is associated with advanced stage but has no independent prognostic significance and does not impact on operative outcomes. Consequently, this data does not support its routine application in patient selection or prognostication. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;113:732-737. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio predicts the prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients

PURPOSE

As cancer advances, changes in the systemic inflammatory response alter the relative levels of circulating white blood cell types and may contribute to the progression and outcomes of cancer. The aim of the current study is to clarify the impact of the preoperative neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on the prognosis and whether clinical and pathological features modify the influence of the NLR on the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the mortality hazard ratios (HRs), including the preoperative NLR, obtained from data for 283 ESCC patients undergoing resection in the period from 2005 to 2011, adjusting for clinical and pathological features.

RESULTS

A high NLR was associated with a significantly shorter overall survival (p = 0.0018) and cancer-specific survival (p = 0.0097). In the multivariate Cox model, we confirmed that the NLR was an independent prognostic marker for both overall survival (p = 0.0081) and cancer-specific survival (p = 0.028). The outcomes were not significantly modified by other diagnostic factors, including the tumor stage, in the survival analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The preoperative NLR is significantly associated with a poor prognosis in patients with ESCC, suggesting the utility of NLR as a cost-effective and broadly available independent prognostic marker of ESCC.