A systematic approach for COVID-19 predictions and parameter estimation

Deep learning modelling of public's sentiments towards temporal evolution of COVID-19 transmission

Public sentiments towards global pandemics are important for public health assessment and disease control. This study develops a modularized deep learning framework to quantify public sentiments towards COVID-19, followed by leveraging the predicted sentiments to model and forecast the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally, via a proposed G parameter. In the proposed framework, public sentiments are first modeled via a valence dimensional indicator, instead of discrete schemas, and are classified into 4 primary emotional categories: (a) neutral; (b) negative; (c) positive; (d) ambivalent, by using multiple word embedding models and classifiers for text sentiments analyses and classification. The trained model is subsequently applied to analyze large volumes (millions in quantity) of daily Tweets pertaining to COVID-19, ranging from 22 Jan 2020 to 10 May 2020. The results demonstrate that the global community gradually evokes both positive and negative sentiments towards COVID-19 over time compared to the dominant neural emotion at its inception. The predicted time-series sentiments are then leveraged to train a deep neural network (DNN) to model and forecast the G parameter by achieving the lowest possible mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) score of around 17.0% during the model's testing step with the optimal model configuration.

Deming least square regressed feature selection and Gaussian neuro-fuzzy multi-layered data classifier for early COVID prediction

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a harmful disease caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 virus. COVID-19 disease comprises symptoms such as cold, cough, fever, and difficulty in breathing. COVID-19 has affected many countries and their spread in the world has put humanity at risk. Due to the increasing number of cases and their stress on administration as well as health professionals, different prediction techniques were introduced to predict the coronavirus disease existence in patients. However, the accuracy was not improved, and time consumption was not minimized during the disease prediction. To address these problems, least square regressive Gaussian neuro-fuzzy multi-layered data classification (LSRGNFM-LDC) technique is introduced in this article. LSRGNFM-LDC technique performs efficient COVID prediction with better accuracy and lesser time consumption through feature selection and classification. The preprocessing is used to eliminate the unwanted data in input features. Preprocessing is applied to reduce the time complexity. Next, Deming Least Square Regressive Feature Selection process is carried out for selecting the most relevant features through identifying the line of best fit. After the feature selection process, Gaussian neuro-fuzzy classifier in LSRGNFM-LDC technique performs the data classification process with help of fuzzy if-then rules for performing prediction process. Finally, the fuzzy if-then rule classifies the patient data as lower risk level, medium risk level and higher risk level with higher accuracy and lesser time consumption. Experimental evaluation is performed by Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset using different metrics like prediction accuracy, prediction time, and error rate. The result shows that LSRGNFM-LDC technique improves the accuracy and minimizes the time consumption as well as error rate than existing works during COVID prediction.

Pandemic coronavirus disease (Covid-19): World effects analysis and prediction using machine-learning techniques

Pandemic novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease that primarily spreads by droplets of nose discharge when sneezing and saliva from the mouth when coughing, that had first been reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Covid-19 became a global pandemic, which led to a harmful impact on the world. Many predictive models of Covid-19 are being proposed by academic researchers around the world to take the foremost decisions and enforce the appropriate control measures. Due to the lack of accurate Covid-19 records and uncertainty, the standard techniques are being failed to correctly predict the epidemic global effects. To address this issue, we present an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based meta-analysis to predict the trend of epidemic Covid-19 over the world. The powerful machine learning algorithms namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Linear Regression were applied on real time-series dataset, which holds the global record of confirmed, recovered, deaths and active cases of Covid-19 outbreak. Statistical analysis has also been conducted to present various facts regarding Covid-19 observed symptoms, a list of Top-20 Coronavirus affected countries and a number of coactive cases over the world. Among the three machine learning techniques investigated, Naïve Bayes produced promising results to predict Covid-19 future trends with less Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The less value of MAE and MSE strongly represent the effectiveness of the Naïve Bayes regression technique. Although, the global footprint of this pandemic is still uncertain. This study demonstrates the various trends and future growth of the global pandemic for a proactive response from the citizens and governments of countries. This paper sets the initial benchmark to demonstrate the capability of machine learning for outbreak prediction.

Local binary pattern and deep learning feature extraction fusion for COVID-19 detection on computed tomography images

The deadly coronavirus virus (COVID-19) was confirmed as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2019. It is important to identify suspected patients as early as possible in order to control the spread of the virus, improve the efficacy of medical treatment, and, as a result, lower the mortality rate. The adopted method of detecting COVID-19 is the reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), the process is affected by a scarcity of RT-PCR kits as well as its complexities. Medical imaging using machine learning and deep learning has proved to be one of the most efficient methods of detecting respiratory diseases, but to train machine learning features needs to be extracted manually, and in deep learning, efficiency is affected by deep learning architecture and low data. In this study, handcrafted local binary pattern (LBP) and automatic seven deep learning models extracted features were used to train support vector machines (SVM) and K-nearest neighbour (KNN) classifiers, to improve the performance of the classifier, a concatenated LBP and deep learning feature was proposed to train the KNN and SVM, based on the performance criteria, the models VGG-19 + LBP achieved the highest accuracy of 99.4%. The SVM and KNN classifiers trained on the hybrid feature outperform the state of the art model. This shows that the proposed feature can improve the performance of the classifiers in detecting COVID-19.

Seesaw scenarios of lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic: Simulation and failure analysis

The ongoing COVOD-19(SARS-CoV-2) outbreak has had a devastating impact on the economy, education and businesses. In this paper, the behavior of an epidemic is simulated on different contact networks. Herein, it is assumed that the infection may be transmitted at each contact from an infected person to a susceptible individual with a given probability. The probability of transmitting the disease may change due to the individuals' social behavior or interventions prescribed by the authorities. We utilized simulation on the contact networks to demonstrate how seesaw scenarios of lockdown can curb infection and level the pandemic without maximum pressure on the poor societies. Soft scenarios consist of closing businesses 2, 3, and 4 days in between with four levels of lockdown respected by 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the population. The findings reveal that the outbreak can be flattened under softer alternatives instead of a doomsday scenario of complete lockdown. More specifically, it is turned out that proposed soft lockdown strategies can flatten up to 120% of the pandemic course. It is also revealed that transmission probability has a crucial role in the course of the infection, growth rate of the infection, and the number of infected individuals.

Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Six High-Burden Countries

The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day-wise COVID-19 data, i.e., reported cases by worldometer from 15^th February to 30^th March 2020 in six high-burden countries, including Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each country and found that the country with the highest transmission rate is Spain, which may increase the new cases and deaths than the other countries. We found that saturation infection negatively impacted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all the six high-burden countries. The study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the most significant influence on prevalence. The prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until 30^th April 2020 using the developed model was also provided with recommendations to control strategies of COVID-19. We also found that adults are more susceptible to infection than both children and older people in all six countries. However, in Italy, Spain, the UK, and Canada, older people show more susceptibility to infection than children, opposite to the case in Australia and the USA. The information generated from this study would be helpful to the decision-makers of various organisations across the world, including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada, to control COVID-19.

Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.

Convolutional neural network for diagnosis of viral pneumonia and COVID-19 alike diseases

Reverse-Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) method is currently the gold standard method for detection of viral strains in human samples, but this technique is very expensive, take time and often leads to misdiagnosis. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has led scientists to explore other options such as the use of artificial intelligence driven tools as an alternative or a confirmatory approach for detection of viral pneumonia. In this paper, we utilized a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach to detect viral pneumonia in x-ray images using a pretrained AlexNet model thereby adopting a transfer learning approach. The dataset used for the study was obtained in the form of optical Coherence Tomography and chest X-ray images made available by Kermany et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.17632/rscbjbr9sj.3) with a total number of 5853 pneumonia (positive) and normal (negative) images. To evaluate the average efficiency of the model, the dataset was split into on 50:50, 60:40, 70:30, 80:20 and 90:10 for training and testing respectively. To evaluate the performance of the model, 10 K Cross-validation was carried out. The performance of the model using overall dataset was compared with the means of cross-validation and the currents state of arts. The classification model has shown high performance in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. 70:30 split performed better compare to other splits with accuracy of 98.73%, sensitivity of 98.59% and specificity of 99.84%.

Fake news detection for epidemic emergencies via deep correlations between text and images

In recent years, major emergencies have occurred frequently all over the world. When a major global public heath emergency like COVID-19 broke out, an increasing number of fake news in social media networks are exposed to the public. Automatically detecting the veracity of a news article ensures people receive truthful information, which is beneficial to the epidemic prevention and control. However, most of the existing fake news detection methods focus on inferring clues from text-only content, which ignores the semantic correlations across multimodalities. In this work, we propose a novel approach for Fake News Detection by comprehensively mining the Semantic Correlations between Text content and Images attached (FND-SCTI). First, we learn image representations via the pretrained VGG model, and use them to enhance the learning of text representation via hierarchical attention mechanism. Second, a multimodal variational autoencoder is exploited to learn a fused representation of textual and visual content. Third, the image-enhanced text representation and the multimodal fusion eigenvector are combined to train the fake news detector. Experimental results on two real-world fake news datasets, Twitter and Weibo, demonstrate that our model outperforms seven competitive approaches, and is able to capture the semantic correlations among multimodal contents.

The value of artificial intelligence and imaging diagnosis in the fight against COVID-19

The outbreak of the new type of coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has caused a huge impact on the world. In this case, only by adhering to the prevention and control methods of early diagnosis, early isolation, and early treatment, can the spread of the virus be prevented to the greatest extent. This article uses artificial intelligence-assisted medical imaging diagnosis as the research object, combines artificial intelligence and CT medical imaging diagnosis, introduces an intelligent COVID-19 detection system, and uses it to achieve COVID-19 disease screening and lesion evaluation. CT examination has the advantages of fast speed and high accuracy, which can provide a favorable basis for clinical diagnosis. This article collected 32 lung CT scan images of patients with confirmed COVID-19. Two professional radiologists analyzed the CT images using traditional imaging diagnostic methods and artificial intelligence-assisted imaging diagnostic methods, and the comparison showed the gap between the two methods. According to experiments, CT imaging diagnosis assisted by artificial intelligence only takes 0.744 min on average, which can save a lot of time and cost compared with the average time of 3.623 min for conventional diagnosis. In terms of comprehensive test accuracy, it can be concluded that the combination of artificial intelligence and imaging diagnosis has extremely high application value in COVID-19 diagnosis.

The early warning research on nursing care of stroke patients with intelligent wearable devices under COVID-19

Stroke patients under the background of the new crown epidemic need to be home-based care. However, traditional nursing methods cannot take care of the patients' lives in all aspects. Based on this, based on machine learning algorithms, our work combines regression models and SVM to build a smart wearable device system and builds a system prediction module to predict patient care needs. The node is used to collect human body motion and physiological parameter information and transmit data wirelessly. The software is used to quickly process and analyze the various motion and physiological parameters of the patient and save the analysis and processing structure in the database. By comparing the results of nursing intervention experiments, we can see that the smart wearable device designed in this paper has a certain effect in stroke care.

What Can COVID-19 Teach Us about Using AI in Pandemics?

The COVID-19 pandemic put significant strain on societies and their resources, with the healthcare system and workers being particularly affected. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers the unique possibility of improving the response to a pandemic as it emerges and evolves. Here, we utilize the WHO framework of a pandemic evolution to analyze the various AI applications. Specifically, we analyzed AI from the perspective of all five domains of the WHO pandemic response. To effectively review the current scattered literature, we organized a sample of relevant literature from various professional and popular resources. The article concludes with a consideration of AI’s weaknesses as key factors affecting AI in future pandemic preparedness and response.