A Framework for Evaluating Heterogeneity and Landscape-Level Impacts of Non-native Aquatic Species

Long-term macrophyte and snail community responses to population declines of invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus)

A central focus of invasive species research has been on human efforts to eradicate invaders or reduce their abundance to mitigate the worst of their impacts. In some cases, however, populations of invasive species decline without human intervention, which may inform management responses to these invaders. Such is the case of the invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) in northern Wisconsin, USA, where systematic population monitoring since 1975 has revealed population declines in approximately half of the lakes surveyed. Population declines of invasive species without human intervention remain understudied, but there is even less research on how communities respond following such declines. Using 10 lakes in Vilas County, Wisconsin, we investigated community recovery of habitat (macrophytes) and prey (freshwater snails) of F. rusticus following up to 33 years of declines of this invader in some lakes using a dataset with a rare, long-term span over which consistent data were collected (1987, 2002, 2011, and 2020). We compared community responses in lakes where F. rusticus populations reached a peak and subsequently declined (boom-bust lakes) and lakes where our dataset only captured the decline of F. rusticus (bust lakes) to reference lakes with consistently high or low crayfish abundance over time. We found partial recovery of macrophytes and snails in the bust and boom-bust lakes where F. rusticus has declined, with recovery of macrophyte abundance and richness in the boom-bust lakes achieving levels observed in the low-crayfish reference lakes. Snail abundance and richness increased after declines of F. rusticus, though not to the level of the low-crayfish reference lakes, suggesting that snail recovery may lag macrophyte recovery because snails are dependent on macrophytes and associated periphyton for habitat. The recovery we document potentially represents long-term ecosystem resilience of lakes to biological invasions. Our results suggest that lake communities may recover without active restoration interventions after invasive crayfish population declines, although identifying which lakes experience these natural declines remains a priority for future research and management.

GIRAE: a generalised approach for linking the total impact of invasion to species' range, abundance and per-unit effects

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3-19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the relationship between the three components of impact, an approach we term GIRAE (Generalised Impact = Range size × Abundance × per-unit Effect). We discuss how GIRAE can be applied to multiple types of impact, including environmental impacts, damage and management costs. We propose two methods for applying GIRAE. The species-specific method computes the relationship between impact, range size, abundance and per-unit effect for a given species across multiple invaded sites or regions of different sizes. The multi-species method combines data from multiple species across multiple sites or regions to calculate a per-unit effect for each species and is computed using a single regression model. The species-specific method is more accurate, but it requires a large amount of data for each species and assumes a constant per-unit effect for a species across the invaded area. The multi-species method is more easily applicable and data-parsimonious, but assumes the same relationship between impact, range size and abundance for all considered species. We illustrate these methods using data about money spent managing plant invasions in different biomes of South Africa. We found clear differences between species in terms of money spent per unit area invaded, with per-unit expenditure varying substantially between biomes for some species-insights that are useful for monitoring and evaluating management. GIRAE offers a versatile and practical method that can be applied to many different types of data to better understand and manage the impacts of biological invasions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02836-0.

Modelling the damage costs of invasive alien species

The rate of biological invasions is growing unprecedentedly, threatening ecological and socioeconomic systems worldwide. Quantitative understandings of invasion temporal trajectories are essential to discern current and future economic impacts of invaders, and then to inform future management strategies. Here, we examine the temporal trends of cumulative invasion costs by developing and testing a novel mathematical model with a population dynamical approach based on logistic growth. This model characterises temporal cost developments into four curve types (I–IV), each with distinct mathematical and qualitative properties, allowing for the parameterization of maximum cumulative costs, carrying capacities and growth rates. We test our model using damage cost data for eight genera (Rattus, Aedes, Canis, Oryctolagus, Sturnus, Ceratitis, Sus and Lymantria) extracted from the InvaCost database—which is the most up-to-date and comprehensive global compilation of economic cost estimates associated with invasive alien species. We find fundamental differences in the temporal dynamics of damage costs among genera, indicating they depend on invasion duration, species ecology and impacted sectors of economic activity. The fitted cost curves indicate a lack of broadscale support for saturation between invader density and impact, including for Canis, Oryctolagus and Lymantria, whereby costs continue to increase with no sign of saturation. For other taxa, predicted saturations may arise from data availability issues resulting from an underreporting of costs in many invaded regions. Overall, this population dynamical approach can produce cost trajectories for additional existing and emerging species, and can estimate the ecological parameters governing the linkage between population dynamics and cost dynamics.

The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts

It is well established that nonnative species are a key driver of global environmental change, but much less is known about the underlying drivers of nonnative species outbreaks themselves. In the present article, we explore the concept and implications of nonnative sleeper populations in invasion dynamics. Such populations persist at low abundance for years or even decades—a period during which they often go undetected and have negligible impact—until they are triggered by an environmental factor to become highly abundant and disruptive. Population irruptions are commonly misinterpreted as a recent arrival of the nonnative species, but sleeper populations belie a more complex history of inconspicuous occurrence followed by an abrupt shift in abundance and ecological impact. In the present article, we identify mechanisms that can trigger their irruption, and the implications for invasive species risk assessment and management.

Non-native species have multiple abundance-impact curves

The abundance-impact curve is helpful for understanding and managing the impacts of non-native species. Abundance-impact curves can have a wide range of shapes (e.g., linear, threshold, sigmoid), each with its own implications for scientific understanding and management. Sometimes, the abundance-impact curve has been viewed as a property of the species, with a single curve for a species. I argue that the abundance-impact curve is determined jointly by a non-native species and the ecosystem it invades, so that a species may have multiple abundance-impact curves. Models of the impacts of the invasive mussel Dreissena show how a single species can have multiple, noninterchangeable abundance-impact curves. To the extent that ecosystem characteristics determine the abundance-impact curve, abundance-impact curves based on horizontal designs (space-for-time substitution) may be misleading and should be used with great caution, it at all. It is important for scientists and managers to correctly specify the abundance-impact curve when considering the impacts of non-native species. Diverting attention from the invading species to the invaded ecosystem, and especially to the interaction between species and ecosystem, could improve our understanding of how non-native species affect ecosystems and reduce uncertainty around the effects of management of populations of non-native species.

Non-native plants have greater impacts because of differing per-capita effects and nonlinear abundance-impact curves

Invasive, non-native species can have tremendous impacts on biotic communities, where they reduce the abundance and diversity of local species. However, it remains unclear whether impacts of non-native species arise from their high abundance or whether each non-native individual has a disproportionate impact - that is, a higher per-capita effect - on co-occurring species compared to impacts by native species. Using a long-term study of wetlands, we asked how temporal variation in dominant native and non-native plants impacted the abundance and richness of other plants in the recipient community. Non-native plants reached higher abundances than natives and had greater per-capita effects. The abundance-impact relationship between plant abundance and richness was nonlinear. Compared with increasing native abundance, increasing non-native abundance was associated with steeper declines in richness because of greater per-capita effects and nonlinearities in the abundance-impact relationship. Our study supports eco-evolutionary novelty of non-natives as a driver of their outsized impacts on communities.