Simulation and Analysis of the Effect of a Spruce Budworm Outbreak on Carbon Dynamics in Boreal Forests of Quebec

Modelling the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change in Eastern Canadian forests

Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010-2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha-1 yr-1 compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition, as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

Decoupling the Effect of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Carbon Sequestration of Vegetation in Mideast Hunan Province, China

Urbanization and global climate change are two important global environmental phenomena in the 21st century. Human activities and climate changes usually increase the uncertainties of the ecosystem functions and structures and can greatly affect regional landscape patterns and the carbon cycle. Consequently, it is critical to understand how various climate and land-use changes influence the carbon dynamics at a regional scale. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of net primary productivity (NPP) and the effects of climate factors and human disturbance factors (i.e., land-use changes) on the “Chang–Zhu–Tan” (CZT) urban agglomeration region from 2000 to 2015. The Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model was combined with spatially explicit land-use maps, monthly climate data, and MODIS NDVI images to simulate the carbon dynamics in the CZT area. Based on our six different scenarios, we also analyzed the relative roles of climate change and land-use change in total production. Our results indicated that the annual NPP of the study area maintained an upward trend by 7.31 gC•m−2•yr−1 between 2000 and 2015. At the same time, the average annual NPP was 628.99 gC•m−2 in the CZT area. We also found that the NPP was lower in the middle of the north region than in others. In addition, land-use changes could contribute to a positive effect on the total production in the study area by 3.42 T gC. Meanwhile, the effect of climate changes on the total production amounted to −1.44 T gC in the same region and period. Temperature and precipitation had negative effects on carbon sequestration from 2000 to 2015. As forest land constituted over 62.60% of the total land use from 2000 to 2015, the negative effect of carbon sequestration caused by urbanization could be ignored in the CZT area. Although climate and land-use changes had simultaneously positive and negative effects during the period 2000–2015, prioritizing the protection of existing forest land could contribute to increasing carbon sequestration and storage at the regional scale. Our study assists in understanding the impact of climate changes and land-use changes on carbon sequestration while providing a scientific basis for the rational and effective protection of the ecological environment in mid-east Hunan Province, China.