Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models

The Role of Social License in Non-Industrial Marine and Coastal Planning: a Scoping Review

Marine and coastal environments are diverse and dynamic, supporting competing human interests and demands. As society seeks to balance contested uses of space, more holistic planning processes have emerged, which consider social, economic, and ecological factors. One approach that considers social factors, and more specifically social acceptance, is "social license to operate" (SLO). Originating in the terrestrial mining industry, SLO has been adopted by various marine industries. Except for some emerging work in the conservation field, SLO is typically applied to industrial marine and coastal contexts. To understand SLO's uses in other marine and coastal planning contexts, namely conservation, adaptation, and restoration, we conducted a scoping review using the term SLO and similar concepts, including public or social acceptance, support, and buy-in. Results indicate the concept of SLO is still emerging in non-industrial marine and coastal planning, with an emphasis on gaining public acceptance rather than maintaining it. The concept of SLO was applied broadly, including as a measurement for public support and a product of effective engagement. Most publications focused on barriers and drivers of SLO. Influential factors are identified and organized by theme, then discussed based on their relationships within a social-ecological system framework. Considering the common factors and their associated systems helps to link elements necessary to obtain SLO, highlighting their interconnectedness with each other, society, and the natural environment. The findings of this review illustrate SLO's utility for academics and practitioners alike, through its application in methods, tools, values, and concepts that characterize public inclusion for marine and coastal planning.

Towards a more integrated research framework for heat-related health risks and adaptation

Advances in research on current and projected heat-related risks from climate change and the associated responses have rapidly developed over the past decade. Modelling architectures of climate impacts and heat-related health risks have become increasingly sophisticated alongside a growing number of experiments and socioeconomic studies, and possible options for heat-related health adaptation are increasingly being catalogued and assessed. However, despite this progress, these efforts often remain isolated streams of research, substantially hampering our ability to contribute to evidence-informed decision making on responding to heat-related health risks. We argue that the integration of scientific efforts towards more holistic research is urgently needed to tackle fragmented evidence and identify crucial knowledge gaps, so that health research can better anticipate and respond to heat-related health risks in the context of a changing climate. In this Personal View, we outline six building blocks, each constituting a research stream, but each needed as part of a more integrated research framework-namely, projected heat-related health risks; adaptation options; the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation; synergies, trade-offs, and co-benefits of adaptation; adaptation limits and residual risks; and adaptation pathways. We outline their respective importance and discuss their benefits for health-related research and policy.

Uncertainties in the adaptation of alpine pastures to climate change based on remote sensing products and modelling

Over the last century, the management of pastoral systems has undergone major changes to meet the livelihood needs of alpine communities. Faced with the changes induced by recent global warming, the ecological status of many pastoral systems has seriously deteriorated in the western alpine region. We assessed changes in pasture dynamics by integrating information from remote-sensing products and two process-based models, i.e. the grassland-specific, biogeochemical growth model PaSim and the generic crop-growth model DayCent. Meteorological observations and satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trajectories of three pasture macro-types (high, medium and low productivity classes) in two study areas - Parc National des Écrins (PNE) in France and Parco Nazionale Gran Paradiso (PNGP) in Italy - were used as a basis for the model calibration work. The performance of the models was satisfactory in reproducing pasture production dynamics (R² = 0.52 to 0.83). Projected changes in alpine pastures due to climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies indicate that: i) the length of the growing season is expected to increase between 15 and 40 days, resulting in changes in the timing and amount of biomass production, ii) summer water stress could limit pasture productivity; iii) earlier onset of grazing could enhance pasture productivity; iv) higher livestock densities could increase the rate of biomass regrowth, but major uncertainties in modelling processes need to be considered; and v) the carbon sequestration potential of pastures could decrease under limited water availability and warming.

Synergy of climate change with country success and city quality of life

Most people around the world have felt the effects of climate change on their quality of life. This study sought to achieve the maximum efficiency for climate change actions with the minimum negative impact on the well-being of countries and cities. The Climate Change and Country Success (C³S) and Climate Change and Cities' Quality of Life (C³QL) models and maps of the world created as part of this research showed that as economic, social, political, cultural, and environmental metrics of countries and cities improve, so do their climate change indicators. For the 14 climate change indicators, the C³S and C³QL models indicated 68.8% average dispersion dimensions in the case of countries and 52.8% in the case of cities. Our research showed that increases in the success of 169 countries saw improvements in 9 climate change indicators out of the 12 considered. Improvements in country success indicators were accompanied by a 71% improvement in climate change metrics.

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

Controlling air pollution by lowering methane emissions, conserving natural resources, and slowing urbanization in a panel of selected Asian economies

The destruction of the earth's ecosystems is the most pressing issue globally. Carbon emissions account for nearly half of global air pollution. Methane is the primary source of ground-level ozone and a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), with greater warming potential than carbon dioxide emissions. The study examines the impact of the different methane emissions (released by agriculture, energy, and industrial sectors), urbanization, natural resource depletion, and livestock production on carbon emissions in the panel of selected Asian countries for the period of 1971 to 2020. The results show that energy associated methane emissions, livestock production, natural resource depletion, and urbanization are the main detrimental factors of environmental degradation across countries. The causality estimates show the unidirectional relationship running from livestock production and agriculture methane emissions to carbon emissions, from total methane emissions and carbon emissions to urbanization and from urbanization to energy methane emissions and livestock production. The forecasting estimates suggest that total methane emissions, natural resource depletion, and urbanization will likely increase carbon emissions over the next ten years. The study concludes that the energy sector should adopt renewable energy sources in its production process to minimize carbon emissions. Urbanization and excessive resource exploitation must be curtailed to attain carbon neutrality.

Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector

To provide the forest industry with a better understanding of alternatives to simulate future adaptation pathways under evolving climatic and socio-economic uncertainty, we review the literature on how adaptation decisions are modelled in the context of plantation forests. This review leads to the conclusion that the representation of adaptation behaviour and decision-making remain very limited in most of the agent-based models in the forestry sector. Moreover, theoretical frameworks used to understand the adaptation behaviour of forest owners are also lacking. In this paper, we propose the application of protection motivation theory (PMT) as a framework to understand the motivation of forest owners to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on their forest plantations. Furthermore, the use of PMT allows factors affecting the maladaptive behaviour of forest owners to be examined. A survey of New Zealand foresters showed that less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. This result highlights the importance of addressing the research question “what motivates forest owners to take risk reduction measures?” Exploring this question is crucial to the future success of the New Zealand forestry sector and we suggest that it can be addressed by using PMT. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for an agent-based model as an alternative to simulating adaptation pathways for forest plantations in New Zealand.

Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces

Estimates of future climate change impacts using numerical impact models are commonly based on a limited selection of projections of climate and other key drivers. However, the availability of large ensembles of such projections offers an opportunity to estimate impact responses probabilistically. This study demonstrates an approach that combines model-based impact response surfaces (IRSs) with probabilistic projections of climate change and population to estimate the likelihood of exceeding pre-specified thresholds of impact. The changing likelihood of exceeding impact thresholds during the 21st century was estimated for selected indicators in three European case study regions (Iberian Peninsula, Scotland and Hungary), comparing simulations that incorporate adaptation to those without adaptation. The results showed high likelihoods of increases in heat-related human mortality and of yield decreases for some crops, whereas a decrease of NPP was estimated to be exceptionally unlikely. For a water reservoir in a Portuguese catchment, increased likelihoods of severe water scarce conditions were estimated for the current rice cultivation. Switching from rice to other crops with lower irrigation demand changes production risks, allowing for expansion of the irrigated areas but introducing a stronger sensitivity to changes in rainfall. The IRS-based risk assessment shown in this paper is of relevance for policy making by addressing the relative sensitivity of impacts to key climate and socio-economic drivers, and the urgency for action expressed as a time series of the likelihood of crossing critical impact thresholds. It also examines options to respond by incorporating alternative adaptation actions in the analysis framework, which may be useful for exploring the types, choice and timing of adaptation responses.

Impacts of and adaptation to climate change on the oil palm in Malaysia: a systematic review

The interaction and the interplay of climate change with oil palm production in the Southeast Asia region are of serious concern. This particularly applies in Malaysia due to its rank as the second largest palm oil producer in the world. The anthropogenic activities and the agroecological practices in oil palm plantation, including excessive use of fertilisers, bush fire due to land clearing, and cultivation on peatland, have exacerbated the effects of climate change featuring extreme events, drought, flooding, heatwave, as well as infestation of pest and diseases. These adverse impacts on oil palm production highlight the significance of deploying effective adaptation strategies. The study aims to examine the impact of climate change on oil palm production and identify the farmers' adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. This study was conducted a comprehensive review of the articles published from 2000 to 2021 in the contexts of climate change and oil palm production in Malaysia. The review shows that climate change has a range of impacts on the oil palm production in Malaysia. As a result, several adaptation options were identified, such as breeding of hybrid varieties that are tolerant and resistant to heat; sustainable management of soil; pit and tranches to enhance water management in plantation areas; minimal use of fertilisers, herbicides, and pesticides; zero burning; and minimum tillage. The reviewed studies recommended the following to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change: sustainable national policy on climate change, conservation of the existing carbon stock, effective management of tropical rainforest biodiversity, afforestation for carbon sequestration, and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.

An introduction to agent-based models as an accessible surrogate to field-based research and teaching

There are many barriers to fieldwork including cost, time, and physical ability. Unfortunately, these barriers disproportionately affect minority communities and create a disparity in access to fieldwork in the natural sciences. Travel restrictions, concerns about our carbon footprint, and the global lockdown have extended this barrier to fieldwork across the community and led to increased anxiety about gaps in productivity, especially among graduate students and early-career researchers. In this paper, we discuss agent-based modeling as an open-source, accessible, and inclusive resource to substitute for lost fieldwork during COVID-19 and for future scenarios of travel restrictions such as climate change and economic downturn. We describe the benefits of Agent-Based models as a teaching and training resource for students across education levels. We discuss how and why educators and research scientists can implement them with examples from the literature on how agent-based models can be applied broadly across life science research. We aim to amplify awareness and adoption of this technique to broaden the diversity and size of the agent-based modeling community in ecology and evolutionary research. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing agent-based modeling and discuss how quantitative ecology can work in tandem with traditional field ecology to improve both methods.

Adaptations in irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region: an overview and spatial analysis of implemented strategies

In order to meet future food demand while sustainably managing available land and water resources, irrigated agriculture in semi-arid regions needs to adapt as a response to climate and socio-economic change. In this study, we focus on the Mediterranean region, a dynamic region, which is highly dependent on irrigated agriculture. We provide insight on adaptation strategies implemented on farm level, by doing a systematic review of studies in the region. Our analysis reports 286 implemented adaptations, on 124 different locations throughout the Mediterranean. Additionally, 142 drivers and 324 effects of adaptations were noted. We identified 31 adaptation strategies in 5 main categories: (1) water management, (2) sustainable resource management, (3) technological developments, (4) farm production practices, and (5) farm management. Strategies in the categories water management and farm production practices are most often implemented by farmers in the region. The main driver in the area is water scarcity and adaptations often affected water use and resources in addition to farm practices. Subsequently, we studied the spatial context of adaptations by analyzing the location factors of the five main strategies, using Geographic Information Systems and maximum entropy modeling. Our results show that farmers are more likely to adapt in less rural areas with lower poverty values and better market access, and in areas with higher temperatures and less rainfall. This demonstrates that both biophysical and socio-economic factors determine the context in which adaptations are implemented and that considerable spatial variability in the area exists.