Heat-related mortality and ambulance transport after a power outage in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Background

Air conditioners can prevent heat-related illness and mortality, but the increased use of air conditioners may enhance susceptibility to heat-related illnesses during large-scale power failures. Here, we examined the risks of heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT) and mortality associated with typhoon-related electricity reduction (ER) in the summer months in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Methods

We conducted event study analyses to compare temperature-HIAT and mortality associations before and after the power outage (July to September 2019). To better understand the role of temperature during the power outage, we then examined whether the temperature-HIAT and mortality associations were modified by different power outage levels (0%, 10%, and 20% ER). We computed the ratios of relative risks to compare the risks associated with various ER values to the risks associated without ER.

Results

We analyzed the data of 14,912 HIAT cases and 74,064 deaths. Overall, 93,200 power outage cases were observed when the typhoon hit. Event study results showed that the incidence rate ratio was 2.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 2.84) with effects enduring up to 6 days, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.22) for mortality on the first 3 days after the typhoon hit. Comparing 20% to 0% ER, the ratios of relative risks of heat exposure were 2.32 (95% CI = 1.41, 3.82) for HIAT and 0.95 (95% CI = 0.75, 1.22) for mortality.

Conclusions

A 20% ER was associated with a two-fold greater risk of HIAT because of summer heat during the power outage, but there was little evidence for the association with all-cause mortality.

Skeletal Muscle Electrical Stimulation Prevents Progression of Disuse Muscle Atrophy via Forkhead Box O Dynamics Mediated by Phosphorylated Protein Kinase B and Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor gamma Coactivator-1alpha

Although electrical muscle stimulation (EMS) of skeletal muscle effectively prevents muscle atrophy, its effect on the breakdown of muscle component proteins is unknown. In this study, we investigated the biological mechanisms by which EMS-induced muscle contraction inhibits disuse muscle atrophy progression. Experimental animals were divided into a control group and three experimental groups: immobilized (Im; immobilization treatment), low-frequency (LF; immobilization treatment and low-frequency muscle contraction exercise), and high-frequency (HF; immobilization treatment and high-frequency muscle contraction exercise). Following the experimental period, bilateral soleus muscles were collected and analyzed. Atrogin-1 and Muscle RING finger 1 (MuRF-1) mRNA expression levels were significantly higher for the experimental groups than for the control group but were significantly lower for the HF group than for the Im group. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator-1alpha (PGC-1alpha) mRNA and protein expression levels in the HF group were significantly higher than those in the Im group, with no significant differences compared to the Con group. Both the Forkhead box O (FoxO)/phosphorylated FoxO and protein kinase B (AKT)/phosphorylated AKT ratios were significantly lower for the Im group than for the control group and significantly higher for the HF group than for the Im group. These results, the suppression of atrogin-1 and MuRF-1 expression for the HF group may be due to decreased nuclear expression of FoxO by AKT phosphorylation and suppression of FoxO transcriptional activity by PGC-1alpha. Furthermore, the number of muscle contractions might be important for effective EMS.

Identification of differentially methylated regions associated with both liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We have previously reported that differentially methylated regions (DMRs) are correlated with the fibrosis stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). In this study, the methylation levels of those DMRs in liver fibrosis and subsequent HCC were examined.

METHODS

The methylation levels of DMRs were investigated using alcoholic cirrhosis and HCC (GSE60753). The data of hepatitis C virus-infected cirrhosis and HCC (GSE60753), and two datasets (GSE56588 and GSE89852) were used for replication analyses. The transcriptional analyses were performed using GSE114564, GSE94660, and GSE142530.

RESULTS

Hypomethylated DMR and increased transcriptional level of zinc finger and BTB domain containing 38 (ZBTB38) were observed in HCC. Hypermethylated DMRs, and increased transcriptional levels of forkhead box K1 (FOXK1) and zinc finger CCCH-type containing 3 (ZC3H3) were observed in HCC. The methylation levels of DMR of kazrin, periplakin interacting protein (KAZN) and its expression levels were gradually decreased as cirrhosis progressed to HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in the methylation and transcriptional levels of ZBTB38, ZC3H3, FOXK1, and KAZN are important for the development of fibrosis and HCC; and are therefore potential therapeutic targets and diagnostic tools for cirrhosis and HCC.

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

BACKGROUND

Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones.

FINDINGS

The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario.

INTERPRETATION

A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.

FUNDING

The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Prediction of outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease based on initial measurements and subsequent changes in magnetic resonance elastography

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is strongly associated with liver fibrosis. We aimed to investigate whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and changes in LSM (ΔLSM) on magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) can predict clinical events in patients with MASLD.

METHODS

We included 405 patients with MASLD who underwent at least two MREs. The patients were divided into five groups corresponding to fibrosis stages (0-4) based on initial LSM and classified as progressors (ΔLSM ≥ 19%) or non-progressors (ΔLSM < 19%) based on the difference between the first and last LSM.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up period was 72.6 months, and the mean interval between MREs was 23.5 months. There were 52 (12.8%) progressors and 353 (87.2%) non-progressors. The initial LSM was significantly associated with the cumulative probabilities of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver-related events, extrahepatic malignancies, and overall mortality but not with cardiovascular disease. Progressors had significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related events but not for extrahepatic malignancies, cardiovascular disease, or overall mortality. Among patients without cirrhosis, the HR for developing cirrhosis among progressors was 60.15. Progressors had a significantly higher risk of liver-related events, even in the low initial LSM (fibrosis stage 0-2) subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Both initial LSM and ΔLSM can predict liver-related events in patients with MASLD, even for low initial LSM. This integrated assessment can allow more detailed risk stratification compared with single LSM assessments and identify high-risk patients with MASLD among those previously considered as low risk.

Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after exposure to air pollution: A multi-country time-series study in 6 countries

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution-particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-and AKI-related mortality using a multi-country dataset.

METHODS

This study included 41,379 AKI-related deaths in 136 locations in six countries during 1987-2018. A novel case time-series design was applied to each air pollutant during 0-28 lag days to estimate the association between air pollution and AKI-related deaths. Moreover, we calculated AKI deaths attributable to non-compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines.

RESULTS

The relative risks (95% confidence interval) of AKI-related deaths are 1.052 (1.003, 1.103), 1.022 (0.994, 1.050), and 1.022 (0.982, 1.063) for 5, 10, and 10 µg/m3 increase in lag 0-28 days of PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2, respectively. The lag-distributed association showed that the risk appeared immediately on the day of exposure to air pollution, gradually decreased, and then increased again reaching the peak approximately 20 days after exposure to PM2.5 and O3. We also found that 1.9%, 6.3%, and 5.2% of AKI deaths were attributed to PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2 concentrations above the WHO guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that public health policies to reduce air pollution may alleviate the burden of death from AKI and suggests the need to investigate the several pathways between air pollution and AKI death.

A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Temperature-Related Mortality and Morbidity in Japan

BACKGROUND

The impact of temperature on morbidity remains largely unknown. Moreover, extensive evidence indicates contrasting patterns between temperature-mortality and temperature-morbidity associations. A nationwide comparison of the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in more specific subgroups is necessary to strengthen understanding and help explore underlying mechanisms by identifying susceptible populations.

OBJECTIVE

We performed this study to quantify and compare the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in 47 prefectures in Japan.

METHODS

We applied a two-stage time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models and mixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis to assess the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity by causes (all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory) at prefecture and country levels between 2015 and 2019. Subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and regions.

RESULTS

The patterns and magnitudes of temperature impacts on morbidity and mortality differed. For all-cause outcomes, cold exhibited larger effects on mortality, and heat showed larger effects on morbidity. At specific temperature percentiles, cold (first percentile) was associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of mortality [1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39, 1.52] than morbidity (1.33; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.40), as compared to the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature. Heat (99th percentile) was associated with a higher risk of morbidity (1.30; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.33) than mortality (1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06). For cause-specific diseases, mortality due to circulatory diseases was more susceptible to heat and cold than morbidity. However, for respiratory diseases, both cold and heat showed higher risks for morbidity than mortality. Subgroup analyses suggested varied associations depending on specific outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Distinct patterns were observed for the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity, underlying different mechanisms of temperature on different end points, and the differences in population susceptibility are possible explanations. Future mitigation policies and preventive measures against nonoptimal temperatures should be specific to disease outcomes and targeted at susceptible populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12854.

Lysosomal cholesterol overload in macrophages promotes liver fibrosis in a mouse model of NASH

Accumulation of lipotoxic lipids, such as free cholesterol, induces hepatocyte death and subsequent inflammation and fibrosis in the pathogenesis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We have previously reported that hepatocyte death locally induces phenotypic changes in the macrophages surrounding the corpse and remnant lipids, thereby promoting liver fibrosis in a murine model of NASH. Here, we demonstrated that lysosomal cholesterol overload triggers lysosomal dysfunction and profibrotic activation of macrophages during the development of NASH. β-cyclodextrin polyrotaxane (βCD-PRX), a unique supramolecule, is designed to elicit free cholesterol from lysosomes. Treatment with βCD-PRX ameliorated cholesterol accumulation and profibrotic activation of macrophages surrounding dead hepatocytes with cholesterol crystals, thereby suppressing liver fibrosis in a NASH model, without affecting the hepatic cholesterol levels. In vitro experiments revealed that cholesterol-induced lysosomal stress triggered profibrotic activation in macrophages predisposed to the steatotic microenvironment. This study provides evidence that dysregulated cholesterol metabolism in macrophages would be a novel mechanism of NASH.

Combined, elobixibat, and colestyramine reduced cholesterol toxicity in a mouse model of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Cholesterol levels and bile acid metabolism are important drivers of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) progression. Using a mouse model, we investigated the mechanism by which cholesterol exacerbates MASH and the effect of colestyramine (a bile acid adsorption resin) and elobixibat (an apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter inhibitor) concomitant administration on bile acid adsorption and MASH status.

METHODS

Mice were fed a high-fat high-fructose diet with varying concentrations of cholesterol to determine changes in fatty liver according to liver status, water intake, defecation status, insulin resistance, bile acid levels, intestinal permeability, atherosclerosis (in apolipoprotein E knockout mice), and carcinogenesis (in diethylnitrosamine mice). Using small interfering ribonucleic acid (siRNA), we evaluated the effect of sterol regulatory element binding protein 1c (SREBP1c) knockdown on triglyceride synthesis and fatty liver status following the administration of elobixibat (group E), colestyramine (group C), or both (group EC).

RESULTS

We found greater reductions in serum alanine aminotransferase levels, serum lipid parameters, serum primary bile acid concentrations, hepatic lipid levels, and fibrosis area in EC group than in the monotherapy groups. Increased intestinal permeability and watery diarrhea caused by elobixibat were completely ameliorated in group EC. Group EC showed reduced plaque formation rates in the entire aorta and aortic valve of the atherosclerosis model, and reduced tumor counts and tumor burden in the carcinogenesis model.

CONCLUSIONS

Excessive free cholesterol in the liver can promote fatty liver disease. Herein, combination therapy with EC effectively reduced free cholesterol levels in MASH model mice. Our study provides strong evidence for combination therapy as an effective treatment for MASH.

Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.

Net impact of air conditioning on heat-related mortality in Japanese cities

BACKGROUND

Air conditioning (AC) presents a viable means of tackling the ill-effects of heat on human health. However, AC releases additional anthropogenic heat outdoors, and this could be detrimental to human health, especially in urban communities. This study determined the excess heat-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic heat from AC use under various projected global warming scenarios in seven Japanese cities. The overall protection from AC use was also measured.

METHODS

Daily average 2-meter temperatures in the hottest month of August from 2000 to 2010 were modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with BEP+BEM (building effect parameterization and building energy model). Risk functions for heat-mortality associations were generated with and without AC use from a two-stage time series analysis. We coupled simulated August temperatures and heat-mortality risk functions to estimate averted deaths and unavoidable deaths from AC use.

RESULTS

Anthropogenic heat from AC use slightly augmented the daily urban temperatures by 0.046 °C in Augusts of 2000-2010 and up to 0.181 °C in a future with 3 °C urban warming. This temperature rise was attributable to 3.1-3.5 % of heat-related deaths in Augusts of 2000-2010 under various urban warming scenarios. About 36-47 % of heat-related deaths could be averted by air conditioning use under various urban warming scenarios.

DISCUSSION

AC has a valuable protective effect from heat despite some unavoidable mortality from anthropogenic heat release. Overall, the use of AC as a major adaptive strategy requires careful consideration.

Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level.

DESIGN

Two stage time series analysis.

SETTING

372 cities across 19 countries and regions.

POPULATION

Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM2.5 and O3 in association with mortality.

RESULTS

During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O3 concentration; and for a 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 ranged from 0.04% (-0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM2.5 and O3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.

First Observation of Electron Scattering from Online-Produced Radioactive Target

We successfully performed electron scattering off unstable nuclei which were produced online from the photofission of uranium. The target ^{137}Cs ions were trapped with a new target-forming technique that makes a high-density stationary target from a small number of ions by confining them in an electron storage ring. After developments of target generation and transportation systems and the beam stacking method to increase the ion beam intensity up to approximately 2×10^{7} ions per pulse beam, an average luminosity of 0.9×10^{26}  cm^{-2} s^{-1} was achieved for ^{137}Cs. The obtained angular distribution of elastically scattered electrons is consistent with a calculation. This success marks the realization of the anticipated femtoscope which clarifies the structures of exotic and short-lived unstable nuclei.

M-PAST score is better than MAST score for the diagnosis of active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials enroll patients with active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] activity score ≥ 4) and significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2); however, screening failure rates are high following biopsy. We developed new scores to identify active fibrotic NASH using FibroScan and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

METHODS

We undertook prospective primary (n = 176), retrospective validation (n = 169), and University of California San Diego (UCSD; n = 234) studies of liver biopsy-proven NAFLD. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using FibroScan or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), or proton density fat fraction (PDFF), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were combined to develop a two-step strategy-FibroScan-based LSM followed by CAP with AST (F-CAST) and MRE-based LSM followed by PDFF with AST (M-PAST)-and compared with FibroScan-AST (FAST) and MRI-AST (MAST) for diagnosing active fibrotic NASH. Each model was categorized using rule-in and rule-out criteria.

RESULTS

Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of F-CAST (0.826) and M-PAST (0.832) were significantly higher than those of FAST (0.744, p = 0.004) and MAST (0.710, p < 0.001). Following the rule-in criteria, positive predictive values of F-CAST (81.8%) and M-PAST (81.8%) were higher than those of FAST (73.5%) and MAST (70.0%). Following the rule-out criteria, negative predictive values of F-CAST (90.5%) and M-PAST (90.9%) were higher than those of FAST (84.0%) and MAST (73.9%). In the validation and UCSD cohorts, AUROCs did not differ significantly between F-CAST and FAST, but M-PAST had a higher diagnostic performance than MAST.

CONCLUSIONS

The two-step strategy, especially M-PAST, showed reliability of rule-in/-out for active fibrotic NASH, with better predictive performance compared with MAST. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number, UMIN000012757).

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Effect modification of the association between temperature variability and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease by comorbid diabetes mellitus: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover analysis

AIMS

We aimed to explore the association between short-term exposure to temperature variability (TV), and cardiovascular hospitalization stratified by the presence of comorbid diabetes.

METHODS

We collected data on nationwide hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases and daily weather conditions during 2011-2018 in Japan. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures within 0-7 lag days. We applied a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover design to estimate the association between TV and cardiovascular hospitalization with and without comorbid diabetes, adjusting for temperature and relative humidity. Furthermore, specific cardiovascular disease causes, demographic characteristics, and seasons were used for stratification.

RESULTS

In 3,844,910 hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease, each 1 °C increase in TV was associated with a 0.44% (95% CI: 0.22%, 0.65%) increase in the risk of cardiovascular admission. We observed a 2.07% (95% CI: 1.16%, 2.99%) and 0.61% (95% CI: -0.02%, 1.23%) increase per 1 °C in risk of heart failure admission in individuals with and those without diabetes, respectively. The higher risk among individuals with diabetes was mostly consistent in the analyses stratified by age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, and season.

CONCLUSION

Comorbid diabetes may increase susceptibility to TV in relation to acute cardiovascular disease hospitalization.

Prediction of climate change impacts on heatstroke cases in Japan's 47 prefectures with the effect of long-term heat adaptation

One of the negative consequences of increased air temperatures due to global warming is the associated increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity. Studies that focused on future predictions of heat-related morbidity do not consider the effect of long-term heat adaptation measures, nor do they use evidence-based methods. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the future heatstroke cases for all 47 prefectures of Japan, by considering long-term heat adaptation by translating current geographical differences in heat adaptation to future temporal heat adaptation. Predictions were conducted for age groups of 7-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years. The prediction period was set to a base period (1981-2000), mid-21st century (2031-2050), and the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). We found that the average heatstroke incidence (number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance per population) in Japan under five representative climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios increased by 2.92- for 7-17 years, 3.66- for 18-64 years, and 3.26-fold for ≥65 years at the end of the 21st century without heat adaptation. The corresponding numbers were 1.57 for 7-17 years, 1.77 for 18-64 years, and 1.69 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. Furthermore, the average number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance (NPHTA) under all climate models and GHG emissions scenarios increased by 1.02- for 7-17 years, 1.76- for 18-64 years, and 5.50-fold for ≥65 years at the end of 21st century without heat adaptation, where demographic changes were considered. The corresponding numbers were 0.55 for 7-17 years, 0.82 for 18-64 years, and 2.74 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. The heatstroke incidence, as well as the NPHTA, substantially decreased when heat adaptation was considered. Our method could be applicable to other regions across the globe.

Positive Association of Aggression with Ambient Temperature

Background: Relatively little attention has been paid to the potential effects of rising temperatures on changes in human behavior that lead to health and social consequences, including aggression. This study investigated the association between ambient temperature and aggression using assault death data from Seoul, South Korea (1991-2020). Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis based on conditional logistic regression to control for relevant covariates. The exposure-response curve was explored, and stratified analyses were conducted by season and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: The overall risk of assault deaths significantly increased by 1.4% per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. A positive curvilinear relationship was observed between ambient temperature and assault deaths, which flattened out at 23.6°C during the warm season. Furthermore, risk increases were higher in males, teenagers, and those with the least education. Conclusion: This study highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of rising temperatures on aggression in the context of climate change and public health.

Association between ambient temperature and cause-specific cardiovascular disease admissions in Japan: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Substantial evidence suggests that non-optimal temperatures can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity; however, limited studies have reported inconsistent results for hospital admissions depending on study locations, which also lack national-level investigations on cause-specific CVDs.

METHODS

We performed a two-stage meta-regression analysis to examine the short-term associations between temperature and acute CVD hospital admissions by specific categories [i.e., ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke] in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2011 to 2018. First, we estimated the prefecture-specific associations using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain national average associations.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 4,611,984 CVD admissions were reported. We found cold temperatures significantly increased the risk of total CVD admissions and cause-specific categories. Compared with the minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT) at the 98^th percentile of temperature (29.9 °C), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) for cold (5^th percentile, 1.7 °C) and heat (99^th percentile, 30.5 °C) on total CVD were 1.226 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.195, 1.258] and 1.000 (95% CI: 0.998, 1.002), respectively. The RR for cold on HF [RR = 1.571 (95% CI: 1.487, 1.660)] was higher than those of IHD [RR = 1.119 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.204)] and stroke [RR = 1.107 (95% CI: 1.062, 1.155)], comparing to their cause-specific MHTs. We also observed that extreme heat increased the risk of HF with RR of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.054). Subgroup analysis showed that the age group ≥85 years was more vulnerable to these non-optimal temperature risks.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that cold and heat exposure could increase the risk of hospital admissions for CVD, varying depending on the cause-specific categories, which may provide new evidence to reduce the burden of CVD.

Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan

BACKGROUND

The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973-2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan.

METHODS

Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature ≥ 25 ° C (HN 25 ) and b) minimum temperature ≥ 95 th percentile (HN 95 th ) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April-November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association.

RESULTS

Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%-10% [HN 25 relative risk ( RR ) = 1.09 , 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; HN 95 th RR = 1.10 , 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444.

Involvement of Periodontal Disease in the Pathogenesis and Exacerbation of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis: A Review

The increasing incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), along with global lifestyle changes, requires further in-depth research to elucidate the mechanisms and develop new treatment strategies. In addition, the number of patients with periodontal disease has increased recently, suggesting that periodontal disease is sometimes associated with systemic conditions. In this review, we summarize recent studies linking periodontal disease and NAFLD, the concept of the mouth-gut-liver axis, oral and intestinal microbiota, and liver disease. We suggest new research directions toward a detailed mechanistic understanding and novel targets for treatment and prevention. Forty years have passed since the concepts of NAFLD and NASH were first proposed. however, no effective prevention or treatment has been established. We also found that the pathogenesis of NAFLD/NASH is not limited to liver-related diseases but has been reported to be associated with various systemic diseases and an increasing number of causes of death. In addition, changes in the intestinal microbiota have been shown to be a risk factor for periodontal diseases, such as atherosclerosis, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and obesity.

Meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of serum type IV collagen 7S concentration for the staging of liver fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the measurement of serum type IV collagen 7S (T4C7S) concentration for the staging of liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

A systematic search or published works was carried out using the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science Core Collection databases for studies of the accuracy of serum T4C7S concentration for the staging of fibrosis using Fibrosis stage (F)0-4 in patients with NAFLD diagnosed by liver biopsy.

RESULTS

Nine articles describing 1475 participants with NAFLD were included. For fibrosis ≥F1, with n = 849, summary estimates of sensitivity of 0.79, specificity of 0.69, and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 were obtained using a median T7C4S cut-off value of 4.6 ng/ml. For fibrosis ≥F2, with n = 1,090, summary estimates of sensitivity of 0.78, specificity of 0.78, and AUC of 0.84 were obtained using a median cut-off value of 4.9 ng/ml. For fibrosis ≥F3, with n = 1311 participants and a median cut-off value of 5.4 ng/ml, a pooled sensitivity of 0.82, specificity of 0.81, and AUC of 0.83 were obtained. For fibrosis ≥F4, with n = 753 and a median cut-off value of 6.6 ng/ml, a pooled sensitivity of 0.85, specificity of 0.81, and AUC of 0.85 were obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum T4C7S concentration was found to be an accurate method of staging liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD.

Long-term trends in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 2015

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities.

METHODS

We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO₂], nitrogen dioxide [NO₂], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes.

RESULTS

When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO₂, NO₂, and SPM (14.2-2.3 ppb, 29.4-17.5 ppb, 52.1-20.6 μg/m³, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1-39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable.

Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics

BACKGROUND

Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region.

RESULTS

Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

Real-world assessment of SmartExam, a novel FibroScan computational method: A retrospective single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

SmartExam is a novel computational method compatible with FibroScan that uses a software called SmartDepth and continuous controlled attenuation parameter measurements to evaluate liver fibrosis and steatosis. This retrospective study compared the diagnostic accuracy of conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan for liver stiffness measurement (LSM).

METHODS

The liver stiffness and the associated controlled attenuation parameters of 167 patients were measured using conventional and SmartExam-Equipped FibroScan as well as reference methods like magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and magnetic resonance imaging-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) measurements to assess its diagnostic performance. M or XL probes were selected based on the probe-to-liver capsule distance for all FibroScan examinations.

RESULTS

The liver stiffness and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) correlation coefficients calculated from conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan were 0.97 and 0.82, respectively. Using MRE/MRI-PDFF as a reference and the DeLong test for analysis, LSM and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CAP measured by conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan showed no significant difference. However, the SmartExam-equipped FibroScan measurement (33.6 s) took 1.4 times longer than conventional FibroScan (23.2 s).

CONCLUSIONS

SmartExam has a high diagnostic performance comparable with that of conventional FibroScan. Because the results of the conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan were strongly correlated, it can be considered useful for assessing the fibrosis stage and steatosis grade of the liver in clinical practice, with less variability but little longer measurement time compared with the conventional FibroScan.

Non-invasive imaging biomarkers for liver steatosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: present and future

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is currently the most common chronic liver disease, affecting up to 25% of the global population. Simple fatty liver, in which fat is deposited in the liver without fibrosis, has been regarded as a benign disease in the past, but it is now known to be prognostic. In the future, more emphasis should be placed on the quantification of liver fat. Traditionally, fatty liver has been assessed by histological evaluation, which requires an invasive examination; however, technological innovations have made it possible to evaluate fatty liver by non-invasive imaging methods, such as ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, quantitative as well as qualitative measurements for the detection of fatty liver have become available. In this review, we summarize the currently used qualitative evaluations of fatty liver and discuss quantitative evaluations that are expected to further develop in the future.

Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths.

METHODS

We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days.

RESULTS

The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154  935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally.

METHODS

We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone.

RESULTS

We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries.

CONCLUSION

Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.

Potential effect of heat adaptation on association between number of heatstroke patients transported by ambulance and wet bulb globe temperature in Japan

This study analyzed the association between heatstroke incidence and daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for all 47 prefectures in Japan by age group and severity using time-series analysis, controlling for confounders, such as seasonality and long-term trends. With the obtained association, the relative risk between the reference WBGT (defined as the value at which heatstroke starts to increase) and the daily maximum WBGT at 30 °C (RR_wbgt30) of each prefecture were calculated. For the heatstroke data, the daily number of heatstroke patients transported by ambulance at the prefecture level, provided by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, was utilized. The analysis was conducted for age groups of 7-17 y, 18-64 y, and ≥65 y, and for severity of Deceased, Severe, Moderate (combined as DSM), and Mild. The analysis period was set from May 1 to September 30, 2015-2019. Finally, the correlation between RR_wbgt30 and the average daily maximum WBGT during the analysis period (aveWBGTms) of each prefecture was analyzed to examine the regionality of heatstroke incidence. The result showed that RR_wbgt30 is negatively correlated with aveWBGTms for the age group 18-64 y and ≥65 y (except for the age group 7-17 y) and for severity. The natural logarithm of the RR_wbgt30 of all 47 prefectures ranged from 2.0 to 8.2 for the age group 7-17 y, 1.1 to 4.0 for the age group 18-64 y, 1.8 to 6.0 for the age group ≥65 y, and 1.0 to 3.6 for DSM, and 0.9 to 4.0 for Mild. This regionality can be attributed to the effects of heat adaptation, where people in hotter regions are accustomed to implementing measures against hot environments and are more heat acclimatized than people in cooler regions.

Diagnostic comparison of vibration-controlled transient elastography and MRI techniques in overweight and obese patients with NAFLD

Non-invasive imaging techniques have greatly advanced the assessment of liver fibrosis and steatosis but are not fully evaluated in overweight patients. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) to assess fibrosis and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and MR imaging (MRI)-proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) to assess steatosis in overweight and obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We included 163 biopsy-proven patients with NAFLD who underwent VCTE, MRE/MRI-PDFF, and liver biopsy (years 2014-2020) who were classified according to their body mass index (BMI) as normal (BMI < 25 kg/m², n = 38), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m², n = 68), and obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m², n = 57). VCTE and MRE detected fibrosis of stages ≥ 2, ≥ 3, and 4 with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.83-0.94 (VCTE) and 0.85-0.95 (MRE) in all groups, without considerable differences. MRI-PDFF detected steatosis of grades ≥ 2 and 3 with high AUROC in all groups (0.81-1.00). CAP's diagnostic ability (0.63-0.95) was lower than that of MRI-PDFF and decreased with increasing BMI compared to MRI-PDFF. VCTE and MRE similarly accurately assess fibrosis, although MRI-PDFF is more accurate than CAP in detecting steatosis in overweight and obese patients with NAFLD.

The burden of heat-related stroke mortality under climate change scenarios in 22 East Asian cities

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in East Asia. Owing to the aging population and high prevalence of stroke, East Asia might suffer a disproportionately heavy burden of stroke under the changing climate. However, the evidence relevant is still limited in this area.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the stroke mortality risk due to heat exposure in East Asia and predict its burden under various future climate change scenarios.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-center observational study and collected data from 22 representative cities in three main East Asian countries (i.e., China, Japan, and South Korea) from 1972 to 2015. The two-stage time-series analyses were applied to estimate the effects of heat on stroke mortality at the regional and country level. We further projected the burden of heat-related stroke mortality using 10 global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, including SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios.

RESULTS

In the present study, a total of 287,579 stroke deaths were collected during the warm season. Heat was significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke mortality. Overall, compared with the 2010 s, the heat-related attributable fraction (AF) was projected to increase in the 2090 s, with increments ranging from 0.8 % to 7.5 % across various climate change scenarios. The heat-related AF was projected to reach 11.9 % (95 % empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 6.1 %, 17.5 %) in the 2090 s under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario in China, while the corresponding estimates were 6.6 % (95 % eCI: 2.5 %, 11.0 %) and 5.1 % (95 % eCI: 1.2 %, 9.1 %) for Japan and South Korea, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change will exacerbate the burden of heat-related stroke mortality but with considerable geographical heterogeneity in East Asia.

Associations of segment-specific pulse wave velocity with vascular calcification: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a non-invasive measure of arterial stiffness and a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Vascular calcification, especially coronary artery calcium (CAC) measured by computed tomography (CT), is one of the strongest predictors of CVD but requires radiation for measurement. PWV may be helpful to identify persons with vascular calcification who may benefit from formal assessment of vascular calcification with CT. However, the associations between PWV and vascular calcification across different vascular beds have not been fully investigated.

Purpose

The aims of this study were to quantify the association between PWV and calcification at different segments and to explore whether PWV can identify individuals with vascular calcification beyond traditional risk factors.

Methods

Among 1486 ARIC Study participants (mean age 79.3 [SD 4.2] years), we measured PWV by OMRON VP1000plus at the following segments: heart-carotid (hcPWV), heart-femoral (hfPWV), carotid-femoral (cfPWV), heart-ankle (haPWV), brachial-ankle (baPWV) and femoral-ankle (faPWV). Participants were stratified into four groups based on quartiles of each PWV measure. Dependent (i.e., outcome) variables were high calcium score (≥75th percentile of Agatston score by CT) of the following vascular beds (including valves): coronary arteries, aortic valve ring, aortic valve, mitral valve, ascending aorta, and descending aorta. We ran multivariable logistic regression models and assessed c-statistics as a measure of prediction discrimination.

Results

Only cfPWV was significantly positively associated with high CAC (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the highest vs. lowest quartile: 1.73 [95% CI: 1.17–2.55]) (green dot in figure). The associations were overall most evident for descending aorta calcification, with significantly positive results for hfPWV (gold dot in figure), cfPWV (green dot), haPWV (emerald dot), and baPWV (blue dot). For example, adjusted OR for the highest vs. lowest quartile of cfPWV was 4.08 (2.70–6.24). hfPWV and cfPWV were significantly associated with mitral valve calcification as well. In contrast, faPWV (purple dots) was inversely associated with calcification of aortic valve ring, ascending aorta, and descending aorta. For descending aorta calcification, even the second highest quartile of the following measures demonstrated significant adjusted OR: hfPWV (3.21 [2.11–4.95]), cfPWV (2.11 [1.40–3.20]), and baPWV (1.75 [1.14–2.69]). Simultaneously adding cfPWV and hfPWV improved c-statistic for CAC (Δc-statistic 0.011 [0.0007–0.022]) and descending aorta calcification (0.035 [0.017–0.053]).

Conclusions

The associations of PWV with vascular calcification varied substantially across segments, with descending aorta calcification most closely linked to PWV measures and cfPWV most robustly associated with calcification of multiple vascular beds. cfPWV and hfPWV, together, improved discrimination of high CAC beyond traditional risk factors.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health

Comparison of long‐term prognosis between non‐obese and obese patients with non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background and Aim

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress in non‐obese patients as in obese patients. Reports on long‐term prognosis in non‐obese NAFLD patients are controversial. Therefore, we aimed to examine the long‐term prognosis of non‐obese patients with NAFLD.

Methods

This single‐center, retrospective cohort study enrolled biopsy‐proven non‐obese and obese NAFLD patients between January 2002 and December 2011 and followed them up until 31 March 2021, for death and clinical events (cardiovascular and liver‐related events and extrahepatic cancers).

Results

Of the 223 NAFLD patients, 58 (26.0%) were non‐obese. Compared with obese patients, they had a lower fibrosis stage (0.8 ± 0.80 vs 1.2 ± 0.91; P = 0.004), milder lobular inflammation (0.9 ± 0.7 vs 1.1 ± 0.7; P = 0.02), and significantly lower serum creatinine, total bilirubin, ferritin, and type IV collagen 7S and higher high‐density lipoprotein levels. After a median follow‐up of 8.9 years, no significant difference was noted in mortality between the two groups (2 [3.4%] non‐obese vs 5 [3.0%] obese; log‐rank test, P = 0.63). Twelve patients (20.7%) in the non‐obese group and 32 (19.4%) in the obese group had clinical events. Although the obese group had a higher incidence of clinical events during the first 10 years of follow‐up, the non‐obese group had a higher incidence after that (log‐rank test, P = 0.67). The non‐obese group had a high incidence of malignancy (9 [15.5%] non‐obese vs 14 [8.3%] obese; P = 0.13).

Conclusion

Non‐obese NAFLD does not necessarily have a good prognosis, and some cases have a poor prognosis such as extrahepatic cancers. Further validation is required in the future.

The effects of night-time warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The health impacts of climate warming are usually quantified based on daily average temperatures. However, extra health risks might result from hot nights. We project the future mortality burden due to hot nights.

METHODS

We selected the hot night excess (HNE) to represent the intensity of night-time heat, which was calculated as the excess sum of high temperature during night time. We collected historical mortality data in 28 cities from three east Asian countries, from 1981 to 2010. The associations between HNE and mortality in each city were firstly examined using a generalised additive model in combination with a distributed lag non-linear model over lag 0-10 days. We then pooled the cumulative associations using a univariate meta-regression model at the national or regional levels. Historical and future hourly temperature series were projected under two scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980-2099, with ten general circulation models. We then projected the attributable fraction of mortality due to HNE under each scenario.

FINDINGS

Our dataset comprised 28 cities across three countries (Japan, South Korea, and China), including 9 185 598 deaths. The time-series analyses showed the HNE was significantly associated with increased mortality risks, the relative mortality risk on days with hot nights could be 50% higher than on days with non-hot nights. Compared with the rise in daily mean temperature (lower than 20%), the frequency of hot nights would increase more than 30% and the intensity of hot night would increase by 50% by 2100s. The attributable fraction of mortality due to hot nights was projected to be 3·68% (95% CI 1·20 to 6·17) under a strict emission control scenario (SSP126). Under a medium emission control scenario (SSP245), the attributable fraction of mortality was projected to increase up to 5·79% (2·07 to 9·52), which is 0·95% (-0·39 to 2·29) more than the attributable fraction of mortality due to daily mean temperature.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides evidence for significant mortality risks and burden in association with night-time warming across Japan, South Korea, and China. Our findings suggest a growing role of night-time warming in heat-related health effects in a changing climate.

FUNDING

The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project.

Efficacy and safety of guanabenz acetate treatment for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a study protocol for a randomised investigator-initiated phase IIa study

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a metabolic syndrome phenotype in the liver and thus obviously associated with metabolic abnormalities, including insulin resistance-related to hyperglycaemic and hyperlipidaemia. The prevalence of NAFLD is increasing worldwide. However, currently, there is no consensus regarding the efficacy and safety of drugs used to treat patients with NAFLD/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Guanabenz acetate, a selective α2-adrenoceptor stimulator used in the treatment of hypertension, binds at a high-affinity constant to a nuclear transcriptional coregulator, helicase with zinc finger 2 (Helz2) and inhibits Helz2-medaited steatosis in the liver; chronic oral administration of guanabenz acetate produces a dose-dependent inhibition of lipid accumulation by inhibiting lipogenesis and activating fatty acid Β-oxidation in the liver of obese mice, resulting in improvement of insulin resistance and hyperlipidaemia. Taken all together, guanabenz acetate has a potentially effective in improving the development of NAFLD/NASH and metabolic abnormalities. In this randomised, open label, parallel-group, phase IIa study, we made attempts to conduct a proof-of-concept assessment by evaluating the efficacy and safety of guanabenz acetate treatment in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 28 adult patients with NAFLD or NASH and hypertension complications meeting the inclusion/exclusion criteria will be enrolled. Patients will be randomised to receive either 4 or 8 mg guanabenz acetate (n=14 per group). Blood tests and MRI will be performed 16 weeks after commencement of treatment. The primary endpoint will be the percentage reduction in hepatic fat content (%) measured using MRI-proton density fat fraction from baseline by at least 3.46% at week 16 after treatment initiation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of Yokohama City University Hospital before participant enrolment (YCU021001). The results of this study will be submitted for publication in international peer-reviewed journals, and the key findings will be presented at international scientific conferences. Participants wishing to know the results of this study will be contacted directly on data publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number: NCT05084404).

PROTOCOL VERSION

V.1.1, 19 August 2021.

Influence of liver stiffness heterogeneity on staging fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite that hepatic fibrosis often affects the liver globally, spatial distribution can be heterogeneous. This study aimed to investigate the effect of liver stiffness (LS) heterogeneity on concordance between MR elastography (MRE)-based fibrosis staging and biopsy staging in patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We retrospectively evaluated data from 155 NAFLD patients who underwent liver biopsy and 3 Tesla MRE and undertook a retrospective validation study of 169 NAFLD patients at three hepatology centers. Heterogeneity of stiffness was assessed by measuring the range between minimum and maximum MRE-based LS measurement (LSM). Variability of LSM was defined as the stiffness range divided by the maximum stiffness value. The cohort was divided into two groups (homogenous or heterogeneous), according to whether variability was below or above the average for the training cohort. Based on histopathology and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, optimum LSM thresholds were determined for MRE-based fibrosis staging of stage 4 (4.43, kPa; AUROC, 0.89) and stage ≥3 (3.93, kPa; AUROC, 0.89). In total, 53 had LSM above the threshold for stage 4. Within this group, 30 had a biopsy stage of <4. In 86.7% of these discordant cases, variability of LSM was classified as heterogeneous. In MRE-based LSM stage ≥3, 88.9% of discordant cases were classified as heterogeneous. Results of the validation cohort were similar to those of the training cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordance between biopsy- and MRE-based fibrosis staging is associated with heterogeneity in LSM, as depicted with MRE.

Association of Serum and Fecal Bile Acid Patterns With Liver Fibrosis in Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: An Observational Study

INTRODUCTION

No reports on both blood and fecal bile acids (BAs) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) exist. We simultaneously assessed the serum and fecal BA patterns in healthy participants and those with NAFLD.

METHODS

We collected stool samples from 287 participants from 5 hospitals in Japan (healthy control [HC]: n = 88; mild fibrosis: n = 104; and advanced fibrosis group: n = 95). Blood samples were collected and analyzed for serum BAs and 7α-hydroxy-4-cholesten-3-one (C4)-a surrogate marker for BA synthesis ability-from 141 patients. Concentrations of BAs, including cholic acid (CA), deoxycholic acid (DCA), chenodeoxycholic acid, ursodeoxycholic acid, and lithocholic acid (LCA), were measured using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

RESULTS

The total fecal BA concentration was significantly higher in the NAFLD group with worsening of fibrosis than in the HC group. Most of the fecal BAs were secondary and unconjugated. In the fecal BA fraction, CA, DCA, chenodeoxycholic acid, ursodeoxycholic acid, and LCA were significantly higher in the NAFLD than in the HC group. The total serum BA concentration was higher in the NAFLD group with worsening of fibrosis than in the HC group. In the serum BA fraction, CA, LCA, and C4 concentrations were significantly higher in the NAFLD than in the HC group.

DISCUSSION

Fecal and serum BA and C4 concentrations were high in patients with NAFLD with worsening of fibrosis, suggesting involvement of abnormal BA metabolism in NAFLD with fibrosis progression. Abnormalities in BA metabolism may be a therapeutic target in NAFLD with fibrosis.

TMEM16A blockers T16Ainh-A01 and benzbromarone do not modulate the regulation of sweating and cutaneous vasodilatation in humans in vivo

NEW FINDINGS

What is the central question of this study? Do transmembrane member 16A (TMEM16A) blockers modulate the activation of heat loss responses of sweating and cutaneous vasodilatation? What are the main finding and its importance? Relative to the vehicle control site, TMEM16A blockers T16Ainh-A01 and benzbromarone had no effect on sweat rate or cutaneous vascular conductance during whole-body heating inducing a 1.1 ± 0.1°C increase in core temperature above baseline resting levels. These results suggest that TMEM16A blockers T16Ainh-A01 and benzbromarone do not modulate the regulation of sweating and cutaneous vasodilatation during whole-body heat stress.

ABSTRACT

Animal and in vitro studies suggest that transmembrane member 16A (TMEM16A), a Ca²⁺ -activated Cl^- channel, contributes to regulating eccrine sweating. However, direct evidence supporting this possibility in humans is lacking. We assessed the hypothesis that TMEM16A blockers attenuate sweating during whole-body heating in humans. Additionally, we assessed the associated changes in the heat loss response of cutaneous vasodilatation to determine if a functional role of TMEM16A may exist. Twelve young (24 ± 2 years) adults (six females) underwent whole-body heating using a water-perfused suit to raise core temperature 1.1 ± 0.1°C above baseline. Sweat rate and cutaneous vascular conductance (normalized to maximal conductance via administration of sodium nitroprusside) were evaluated continuously at four forearm skin sites treated continuously by intradermal microdialysis with (1) lactated Ringer's solution (control), (2) 5% dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) serving as a vehicle control, or (3) TMEM16A blockers 1 mM T16Ainh-A01 or 2 mM benzbromarone dissolved in 5% DMSO solution. All drugs were administered continuously via intradermal microdialysis. Whole-body heating increased core temperature progressively and this was paralleled by an increase in sweat rate and cutaneous vascular conductance at all skin sites. However, sweat rate (all P > 0.318) and cutaneous vascular conductance (all P ≥ 0.073) did not differ between the vehicle control site relative to the TMEM16A blocker-treated sites. Collectively, our findings indicate that TMEM16A blockers T16Ainh-A01 and benzbromarone do not modulate the regulation of sweating and cutaneous vasodilatation during whole-body heating in young adults in vivo.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities

RATIONALE

The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality is not fully understood at a global scale.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide.

METHODS

We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine particulate matter. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with over-dispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from co-pollutants (fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled and regional analyses were conducted.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18%, 0.84%), 0.43% (95%CI: 0.15%, 0.71%) and 0.41% (95%CI: 0.06%, 0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all co-pollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

Two differentially methylated region networks in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, viral hepatitis, and hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

We previously reported that two differentially methylated region (DMR) networks identified by DMR and co-methylation analyses are strongly correlated with the fibrosis stages of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In the current study, we examined these DMR networks in viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

We performed co-methylation analysis of DMRs using a normal dataset (GSE48325), two NAFLD datasets (JGAS000059 and GSE31803), and two HCC datasets (GSE89852 and GSE56588). The dataset GSE60753 was used for validation.

Results

One DMR network was clearly observed in viral hepatitis and two HCC populations. Methylation levels of genes in this network were higher in viral hepatitis and cirrhosis, and lower in HCC. Fatty acid binding protein 1 (FABP1), serum/glucocorticoid regulated kinase 2 (SGK2), and hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 α (HNF4A) were potential hub genes in this network. Increased methylation levels of the FABP1 gene may be correlated with reduced protection of hepatocytes from oxidative metabolites in NAFLD and viral hepatitis. The decreased methylation levels of SGK2 may facilitate the growth and proliferation of HCC cells. Decreased methylation levels of HNF4A in HCC may be associated with tumorigenesis. The other DMR network was observed in NAFLD, but not in viral hepatitis or HCC. This second network included genes involved in transcriptional regulation, cytoskeleton organization, and cellular proliferation, which are specifically related to fibrosis and/or tumorigenesis in NAFLD.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that one DMR network was associated with fibrosis and tumorigenesis in both NAFLD and viral hepatitis, while the other network was specifically associated with NAFLD progression. Furthermore, FABP1, SGK2, and HNF4A are potential candidate targets for the prevention and treatment of HCC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02360-4.

Combination of tofogliflozin and pioglitazone for NAFLD: Extension to the ToPiND randomized controlled trial

The incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has recently increased and is related to obesity and the associated surge in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic syndromes. This trial follows up on our previous work and forms part of the ToPiND study. We aimed to combine tofogliflozin and pioglitazone treatment for hepatic steatosis in patients with NAFLD and T2DM. In this open‐label, prospective, single‐center, randomized clinical trial, patients with NAFLD with T2DM and a hepatic fat fraction of ≥10% were assessed based on magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction. Eligible patients received either 20 mg tofogliflozin or 15–30 mg pioglitazone orally, once daily for 24 weeks, followed by combination therapy with both medicines for an additional 24 weeks. The effects on diabetes mellitus and hepatic steatosis were examined at baseline and after the completion of monotherapy and combination therapy. Thirty‐two eligible patients received the combination therapy of tofogliflozin and pioglitazone. The combination therapy showed additional improvement in glycated hemoglobin compared with each monotherapy group and showed improvement in steatosis, hepatic stiffness, and alanine aminotransferase levels compared with the tofogliflozin monotherapy group. Pioglitazone monotherapy–mediated increase in body weight decreased following concomitant use of tofogliflozin. The combination therapy resulted in lower triglyceride, higher high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, higher adiponectin, and higher ketone body levels. Conclusion: In addition to the additive effects of tofogliflozin and pioglitazone in patients with T2DM and NAFLD, combination therapy was suggested to reduce weight gain and induce cardioprotective effect. Further studies with more patients are needed to investigate the combination therapy of various drugs.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.

FINDINGS

An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Ambient Temperature and External Causes of Death in Japan from 1979 to 2015: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

Although substantial evidence suggests that high and low temperatures are adversely associated with nonaccidental mortality, few studies have focused on exploring the risks of temperature on external causes of death.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the short-term associations between temperature and external causes of death and four specific categories (suicide, transport, falls, and drowning) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 1979 to 2015.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-regression analysis. First, we performed time-stratified case-crossover analyses with a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the association between temperature and mortality due to external causes for each prefecture. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates across all prefectures in Japan. In addition, we performed stratified analyses for the associations by sex and age.

RESULTS

A total of 2,416,707 external causes of death were included in the study. We found a J-shaped exposure-response curve for all external causes of death, in which the risks increased for mild cold temperatures [20th percentile; relative risk (RR)=1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05,1.12)] and extreme heat [99th percentile; RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.29)] compared with those for minimum mortality temperature (MMT). However, the shapes of the exposure-response curves varied according to four subcategories. The risks of suicide and transport monotonically increased as temperature increased, with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.45) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.90), respectively, for heat, whereas J- and U-shaped curves were observed for falls and drowning, with RRs of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.23) for heat and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26) and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.89, 2.88) for cold, respectively, compared with those for cause-specific MMTs. The sex- and age-specific associations varied considerably depending on the specific causes.

DISCUSSION

Both low and high temperatures may be important drivers of increased risk of external causes of death. We suggest that preventive measures against external causes of death should be considered in adaptation policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9943.

Direct Comparison of US and MR Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

As alternatives to the expensive liver biopsy for assessing liver fibrosis stage in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), we directly compared the diagnostic abilities of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE).

METHODS

Overall, 231 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficient in a sub-group of 70 participants, in whom liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was performed by an elastography expert and an ultrasound expert who was an elastography trainee on the same day.

RESULTS

Valid LSMs were obtained for 227, 220, 204, and 201 patients using MRE, VCTE, 2D-SWE, and all three modalities combined, respectively. Although the area under the curve did not differ between the modalities for detecting stage ≥1, ≥2, and ≥3 liver fibrosis, it was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE for stage 4. Sex was a significant predictor of discordance between VCTE and liver fibrosis stage. Skin-capsule distance and the ratio of the interquartile range of liver stiffness to the median were significantly associated with discordance between 2D-SWE and liver fibrosis stage. However, no factors were associated with discordance between MRE and liver fibrosis stage. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility in detecting liver fibrosis was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE.

CONCLUSIONS

MRE, VCTE, and 2D-SWE demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy in detecting liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. MRE demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for stage 4 detection and intra- and inter-observer reproducibility. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry No. UMIN000031491.