Knowledge gaps on how to adapt crop production under changing saline circumstances in the Netherlands

Salinization, the increase and accumulation of salts in water and soil, impacts productivity of arable crops and is exacerbated by climate change. The Netherlands, like several other deltas and semi-arid regions, faces increasing salinization that negatively impacts agriculture and freshwater availability. Although a lot of salinity expertise exist in the Netherlands, several knowledge gaps on the impact of salinization in the Netherlands, as well as steps to facilitate closing this knowledge gaps to improve saline agriculture in the Netherlands, still exist. This review/opinion article moves beyond existing papers on salinization in bringing together various adaptation measures by thoroughly reviewing the measures through a triple P (People, Planet, Profit) lens. Five main salinity adaptation measures of the crop-soil-water continuum are 1) breeding and selection of salt tolerant varieties, 2) increased cultivation of halophytes, 3) soil management interventions, 4) use of biostimulants, and 5) irrigation techniques. These adaptation measures are described, discussed and analysed for their compliance to the sustainable development elements People, Planet and Profit. All five adaptation measures have potential positive impact on livelihood, contribute to food security and generate revenue but on the other hand, these measures may contribute to unwarranted changes of the ecosystem. The paper ends with a concluding chapter in which the bottlenecks and knowledge gaps that need resolving are identified based on the critical, including triple P, assessment of the discussed adaptation measures. Three key knowledge gaps on breeding, agronomy, environmental sciences and socioeconomics are identified with several approaches that lead to insights elucidated. Thereby informing on future research and action plans to optimize implementation of salinity adaptation measures in the Netherlands.

Economic assessment of nature-based solutions to reduce flood risk and enhance co-benefits

Flooding is expected to increase due to climate change, urbanisation, and land use change. To address this issue, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) are often adopted as innovative and sustainable flood risk management methods. Besides the flood risk reduction benefits, NBSs offer co-benefits for the environment and society. However, these co-benefits are rarely considered in flood risk management due to the inherent complexities of incorporating them into economic assessments. This research addresses this gap by developing a comprehensive methodology that integrates the monetary analysis of co-benefits with flood risk reduction in economic assessments. In doing so, it aspires to provide a more holistic view of the impact of NBS in flood risk management. The assessment employs a framework based on life-cycle cost-benefit analysis, offering a systematic and transparent assessment of both costs and benefits over time supported by key indicators like net present value and benefit cost ratio. The methodology has been applied to the Tamnava basin in Serbia, where significant flooding occurred in 2014 and 2020. The methodology offers valuable insights for practitioners, researchers, and planners seeking to assess the co-benefits of NBS and integrate them into economic assessments. The results show that when considering flood risk reduction alone, all considered measures have higher costs than the benefits derived from avoiding flood damage. However, when incorporating co-benefits, several NBS have a net positive economic impact, including afforestation/reforestation and retention ponds with cost-benefit ratios of 3.5 and 5.6 respectively. This suggests that incorporating co-benefits into economic assessments can significantly increase the overall economic efficiency and viability of NBS.

Temperature impacts on cotton yield superposed by effects on plant growth and verticillium wilt infection in China

China produces and consumes the largest amount of cotton, playing a critical role in the world's fiber and textile industries. Theoretically, an increase in temperature poses a complex set of impacts on both cotton and pathogen diseases. However, empirical evidence regarding the overall effect on regional cotton yield in China is currently lacking. In this study, we employ county-level cotton statistics and degree-day indices (n = 30,502) to demonstrate a temperature effect on cotton yield, influenced by both direct temperature effects and indirect effects on verticillium wilt infection in China. Our findings indicate that temperatures between the base growing temperature (15 °C) and the optimal infection threshold for cotton wilt disease (25 °C) reduce cotton yield. However, beyond this threshold, when disease infection is significantly limited, higher temperatures become beneficial. Temperatures exceeding 32 °C causes heat stress, which dominates and drives a decline in yield. Furthermore, we provide a risk assessment of warming on cotton in future climate scenarios. Our model projections reveal an overall decrease in cotton yield ranging from 6.2 to 30.6%, accompanied by amplified heat stress (resulting in a yield decrease of 11.6 to 48.7%) but a reduced threat of verticillium wilt (yield increase of 8.2 to 23.6%) in future. Particularly, the Northwest Region, currently responsible for 80% of cotton production, is expected to be particularly vulnerable. This study emphasizes the importance of investing in long-term technological advancements such as cotton heat-tolerance breeding and redistributing cotton growing areas.

Climate risks and vulnerabilities of the Arabica coffee in Brazil under current and future climates considering new CMIP6 models

The susceptibility to climate change concerns the coffee market worldwide due to possible severe productivity losses. Brazil is the world's largest Arabica coffee producer and has crops in regions considered persistent climate change hotspots. Our study analyzed risks, vulnerabilities, and susceptibilities to pests and diseases in these regions under current and future climates and outlined adaptive measures to reduce future vulnerabilities. Ten risk indicators based on Arabica coffee requirements were proposed: water supply (Iw), base (TIB) and maximum temperature stresses (TImax), which delimit the temperature range where Arabica coffee grows and productivity is penalized outside both ranges, frost stress (TIfrost), diseases such as rust (DIrust), brown eye spot (DIbrown), and Phoma leaf spot (DIphoma), pests such as coffee berry borer (PIberry), coffee leaf miner (PIminer), and yield loss due to water stress (Iyg). Daily near-surface air temperature (minimum, mean, and maximum), relative humidity, precipitation, and global solar radiation were used from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), which are derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585). All risk indicators were calculated for the current climate (1995-2014) and projected for the near (2041-2060), intermediate (2061-2080), and far future (2081-2100) in three SSPs and then classified into five risk classes (very low, low, moderate, high and very high). Our results indicated that due to increases in TImax and Iyg indicators, with high to very high risk in area and magnitude, Arabica coffee plantations will be negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 35 % to 75 % of the studied area throughout the 21st century. Furthermore, the rust and the leaf miner will remain a concern in future climates due to increased temperatures and reduced relative humidity. The future of Arabica coffee crops in Brazil will depend on adopting effective adaptive measures and prudent agricultural strategies to address anticipated risks, including shifting crops to higher altitude areas, introducing more climate-resilient coffee cultivars/varieties, using agroforestry or intercropping systems, planting in closer spacing or higher density planting, and employing dripper or partial root-zone irrigation techniques.

Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.

A study evaluating the extrinsic and intrinsic determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: A novel approach for improving farmers' health

Small-scale farmers living in mountainous areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Although governments have implemented various support programs and policies to support a range of farmers to tackle climatic changes, there are still several difficulties in the implementation of these adaptation strategies. Using the survey data of 758 small-scale farmers this paper employs Multivariate Probit (MVP) and Poisson regression models to measure the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting farmers adaptation decision in rural Vietnam. The results reveal that the extrinsic factors such as annual rainfall variations and farm size motivate farmers' adoption of their adaptations. The findings also reveal that the political connection has a significantly positive impact on the respondents' selection, while government interference such as extension training programs has a negative association with the farmers adaptation choice. Public extension programs should be simultaneously redesigned to support farmers in mitigating the impacts of climate change.

[Determinants for agricultural water demands and regional governance approaches for conflict reduction in Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt]

Increasing drought induces growing water demands from crop farming. Subsequently, "traditional balances" among groundwater stakeholders shift, and opposition to administrative regulations becomes more likely. For counteracting resource-consuming intersectoral friction, two projects ("Water Networks") focusing on improving governance approaches were realized in selected districts. Round tables of selected representatives of regional groundwater stakeholders (drinking water, environmental protection, waterbody maintenance, forestry, agricultural irrigation) were established to enhance competences and understanding and to build mutual confidence. During all-day meetings with breaks for informal exchange, experts presented regional information including determinants for agricultural water demand. In particular, objective information was found lacking on recent and future irrigation demands for crops. Thus, potential regional irrigation needs were determined based on high-resolution soil data, climate data and distribution of primary crops. Clear trends towards increasing requirements of irrigation of up to 31% in regional average were identified until the end of the century. The need for continuing the platform discussions was a main conclusion of the participants.

Potential impact of diversion canals and retention areas as climate change adaptation measures on flood risk reduction: A hydrological modelling case study from the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

The countries of Southeast Asia are projected to experience severe flood damage and economic impacts from climate change, compared with the global average. Hence adaptation by incorporating infrastructures is essential, but it has been seldom explicitly included in the simulations projecting climate change impacts on flood risk in these countries. Quantifying the effects of infrastructure is the key to climate change impact and adaptation assessment. Therefore, this study was conducted in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand to examine the adaptation potential of (i) existing structural and non-structural measures that include reservoir and diversion dams, diversion canals, and water retention areas, and (ii) the combined adaptation measures, a combination of alterations made to the existing diversion canals and retention areas, on reducing future floods using the H08 global hydrological model (GHM). The results revealed that the impact of existing measures on the future flood reduction was smaller than the increase caused by warming in the CPRB. Conversely, the combined adaptation measures successfully mitigated the effect of warming by redirecting nearly 50 % of the diverted river flow to the ocean and storing 30 % of the diverted flow in the retention areas. Although a remarkable reduction was noted in the basin-wide flood risk, the effect of adaptation measures greatly varied across the basin. The combined adaptation measures largely reduced the number of flooding days by close to 100 at many of the considered stations within the basin, except for extreme flood events (historical 1-percentile flood events). This further reveals that the feasibility of adaptation measures in alleviating the extreme future floods will be limited in flood-vulnerable basins and thus require area-based prioritization for flood management. The modelling framework implemented in this study can be easily adapted to different GHMs and regions and should be examined for their applicability.

An innovative climate adaptation planning process: iDEAL project

Climate change triggers increasing stresses on urban settlements and coastal areas. The intensification of climate-connected impacts requires municipalities and communities to undertake adaptation measures and plans. These interventions should be capable of reducing negative climatic effects on human habitat and regional bioregions. On the one hand, the international scientific community recognized the supported adaptation planning approach as the more suitable to cope with local needs and criticalities. On the other hand, there is a lack of practical guidelines and examples that can be used to implement the theory. From a perspective of growth of global awareness and sensitivity to the climatic emergency, it is necessary to develop a practical methodology able to link together impacts perception and public decision process at the local scale. The paper aims to fill the gap between the theoretical approach and the practice, through a replicable experience of integration among climate change adaptation concepts and decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is described in a 4-step process to support decision-makers in selecting tailored adaptation policies and measures. The article is based on the experience developed within the Interreg It-Hr project "iDEAL - Decision support for Adaptation pLan" project. The research combines a quantitative and qualitative methodology in local participation processes. The approach is tested on five Mediterranean coastal cities and allowed to support the development of tailored adaptation measures. Furthermore, the interaction with local actors during the process led to an acceptance of the implemented measures, designing each measure to stakeholders' ambitions and expectations.

Analyzing farm households' perception and choice of adaptation strategies towards climate change impacts: a case study of vulnerable households in an emerging Asian region

Poor agricultural communities are particularly more disruptive to changes in climate. In southeast Asian countries, Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to weather-related events including droughts and floods. This research study aims to determine the farmers' perception towards climatic risks, farmers' choice of adaptation strategies and factors influencing farmers' decision of adaptation measures. A face-to-face household survey was conducted to collect primary data of 378 farm households from three tehsils of district Charsadda-Khyber Pakhuntkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was utilized as an instrument to collect data from the targeted farmers in study areas (three tehsils of district Charsadda). A binary probit model approach was used to assess the major factors affecting farmers' decision towards adaptation measures. Results revealed that changing crop varieties, diversification of crops, changing crop calendar, and insurance of crops were the major adaptive measures exercised by farm households in their farms. Findings of the binary probit approach showed that age of the respondents, farm size, educational level, credit access, household size, extension services access and perception of increased floods, and reduction in precipitation had substantial effect on the farmers' adaptation strategies choice. Advanced agricultural practices in response to the climatic risks can thus have substantial effects and reduction in farmers' exposure to natural calamities. Study findings of our research can guide policy makers and concerned authorities and provide policy implications for future research studies.

Factors Influencing Measure-based Adaptation of Rice Farmers for Slow-Onset Hazard: the Case of Saltwater Inundation in the Philippines and Vietnam

This study sought to determine the factors influencing rice farmers' adaptation to a slow-onset hazard such as saltwater inundation. The research is based on a survey conducted through personal interviews using Kobotool App consisting of 326 coastal rice farmers in Northern Mindanao, the Philippines and 258 rice farmers in two provinces in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. There were four levels of analyses for the assessment of the feasibility of the adaptation measures implemented by the farmers. First, it classified adaptation measures into specific categories: technology based, farm-based crop management, ecosystem-based adaptation, off-farm income diversification, and other measures. Second, it developed a multi-criteria assessment tool on adaptation measures based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgment based on four major feasibility criteria. Third, it determined the level of adaptation based on the combination of measures and the feasibility of the chosen measures by constructing a measure-based adaptation index (MAI). Finally, it came up with a model showing the factors influencing the MAI of the farmers. The results revealed that adaptation takes place at different levels in the two countries based on the diversity of measures, the feasibility of the various measures, and the varying conditions of saltwater inundation. The empirical evidence provides systematic support for the hypothesis that adaptation measures are influenced by a confluence of social, institutional, and economic factors.

Perceptions and responses to rising salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta: What drives a long-term community-based strategy?

This study analyses data on perceptions of the adverse impacts of salinity intrusion on rice farming in the Mekong River Delta. Collected via interviews with the head of 441households and several focus group meetings, the data is used to provide an understanding of current adaptation or coping strategies and, from the insights gained, make recommendations for the management of this increasing challenge. We find that most households are concerned about the impact of salinity intrusion on their livelihood and their capacity to cope in the future. Some strategies are already failing and many farmers will struggle to adapt in the medium-term. Censored generalised Poisson regression and negative binomial regression models are used to identify and test the effectiveness of alternative management strategies. The results suggest that farmers have a preference for the construction of dykes as a means to prevent salinity intrusion. We conclude that farmer willingness to support the construction and improvement of dykes can be improved by providing more information and training.

Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change

One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the "Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe" (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.

Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana

Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.

Dengue fever in Punjab, Pakistan: Knowledge, perception and adaptation among urban adults

Climate change and weather variations are strongly associated with the incidence of dengue fever, outbreak risk in Pakistan and other developing countries. Knowledge and adaptation measures can affect the incidence and outbreak risk of dengue fever. The present study attempted to determine the knowledge, perception and adaptation to dengue fever by the respondents in Faisalabad, Pakistan employing cross-sectional data. The respondents who suffered and those that did not suffer from dengue fever have reported that electronic and print media were important sources of awareness about dengue fever. Around 59% respondents who did not suffer from dengue fever reported knowledge of being affected by dengue fever and 67% did not perceive that the symptoms of dengue fever would appear after mosquito biting. Logit model was employed to examine the factors affecting the adaptation measures to reduce the incidence of dengue fever. Education, family size, adults, income and perception were significantly related adaptation to dengue fever. The respondents that suffered from dengue fever were highly probable to use the adaptation measures compared to the respondents that did not suffer from dengue fever. Findings of the study might be helpful for the public health authorities to devise policies on improving awareness of dengue fever among the masses and sensitizing population to use adaptation measures.