Surrounding greenness is associated with lower risk and burden of low birth weight in Iran

The nexus between prenatal greenspace exposure and low birth weight (LBW) remains largely unstudied in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We investigated a nationwide retrospective cohort of 4,021,741 live births (263,728 LBW births) across 31 provinces in Iran during 2013-2018. Greenness exposure during pregnancy was assessed using satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We estimated greenness-LBW associations using multiple logistic models, and quantified avoidable LBW cases under scenarios of improved greenspace through counterfactual analyses. Association analyses provide consistent evidence for approximately L-shaped exposure-response functions, linking 7.0-11.5% declines in the odds of LBW to each 0.1-unit rise in NDVI/EVI with multiple buffers. Assuming causality, 3931-5099 LBW births can be avoided by achieving greenness targets of mean NDVI/EVI, amounting to 4.4-5.6% of total LBW births in 2015. Our findings suggest potential health benefits of improved greenspace in lowering LBW risk and burden in LMICs.

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries.

METHODS

We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants.

RESULTS

We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2.

CONCLUSIONS

Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level.

DESIGN

Two stage time series analysis.

SETTING

372 cities across 19 countries and regions.

POPULATION

Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM2.5 and O3 in association with mortality.

RESULTS

During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O3 concentration; and for a 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 ranged from 0.04% (-0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM2.5 and O3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.

Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths.

METHODS

We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days.

RESULTS

The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154  935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study

BACKGROUND

Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.

METHODS

We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations.

FINDINGS

Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99^th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.

FUNDING

This publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.

Reduction in daily ambient PM2.5 pollution and potential life gain by attaining WHO air quality guidelines in Tehran

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter pollution (PM_2.5) is widely considered to be a top-ranked risk factor for premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL). However, evidence regarding the effect of daily air quality improvement on life expectancy is scarce, especially in the Middle East such as Iran. This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits in life expectancy at concentrations meeting the daily PM_2.5 standards during 2012-2016 in Tehran, Iran.

METHODS

We collected daily non-accidental mortality and data on air pollutants and weather conditions from Tehran, Iran, 2012-2016. A quasi-Poisson or Gaussian time-series regression was employed to fit the associations between ambient PM_2.5 and mortality or YLL. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) and attributable fraction (AF) were estimated by assuming that daily PM_2.5 concentrations attained the World Health Organization air quality guidelines (WHO AQG) 2005 (25 μg/m³) and 2021 (15 μg/m³).

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 221,231 non-accidental deaths were recorded in Tehran, resulting in 3.6 million YLL. The mean concentration of ambient PM_2.5 was 34.7 μg/m³ (standard deviation: 15.3 μg/m³). For a 10-μg/m³ rise in 4-day moving average (lag 03-day) in PM_2.5 concentration, non-accidental mortality and YLL increased by 1.12% (95% confidence interval: 0.60, 1.65) and 20.73 (7.08, 34.39) person years, respectively. A relatively higher effect was observed in males and young adults aged 18-64 years. We estimated that 39830 [AF = 1.1%] and 74284 [AF = 2.1%] YLL could potentially be avoided if daily PM_2.5 concentrations attained the WHO AQG 2005 and 2021, respectively, which corresponded to potential gains in life expectancy of 0.18 (0.06, 0.30) and 0.34 (0.11, 0.56) years for each deceased person. PM_2.5-associated PGLE estimates were largely robust when performing sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that short-term exposure to PM_2.5 is associated with increased non-accidental YLL and mortality. Prolonged life expectancy could be achieved if the particulate matter air pollution level were kept under a stricter standard.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.

FINDINGS

An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association in the globe

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

•

Increased temperature variability (TV) poses a greater mortality risk due to heat

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TV has a more profound modification effect on extreme heat-mortality association

•

Strategies against heat and TV simultaneously would benefit public health

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM_2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m³ increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division.

FINDINGS

Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe.

INTERPRETATION

Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Exposure to suboptimal ambient temperature during specific gestational periods and adverse outcomes in mice

Exposure to suboptimal ambient temperature during pregnancy has been reported as a potential teratogen of fetal development. However, limited animal evidence is available regarding the impact of extreme temperatures on maternal pregnancy and the subsequent adverse pregnancy outcomes. Our objective in this study is to investigate the relationship between temperature and maternal stress during pregnancy in mice. This study used the Naval Medical Research Institute (NMRI) mice during the second and third pregnant weeks with the gestational day (GD) (GD 6.5-14.5 and GD 14.5-17.5). Mice were exposed to suboptimal ambient temperature (1 °C, 5 °C, 10 °C, 15 °C, 40 °C, 42 °C, 44 °C, 46 °C, and 48 °C for the experimental group and 23 °C for the control group) 1 h per day, 7 days a weekin each trimester. Measurements of placental development (placental weight [PW] and placental diameter [PD]) and fetal growth (fetal weight [FW] and crown-to-rump length [CRL]) between experimental and control groups were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Data on the occurrence of preterm birth (PTB) and abnormalities were also collected. The results showed that exposure to both cold and heat stress in the second and third weeks of pregnancy caused significant decreases in measurements of placental development (PW and PD) and fetal growth (FW and CRL). For all temperature exposures, 15 °C was identified as the optimal temperature in the development of the embryo. Most PTB occurrences were observed in high-temperature stress groups, with the highest PTB number seen in the exposure group at 48 °C, whereas PTB occurred only at 1 °C among cold stress groups. In the selected exposure experiments, an approximate U-shaped relation was observed between temperature and number of abnormality occurrence. The highest percentage of these anomalies occurred at temperatures of 1 °C and 48 °C, while no abnormalities were observed at 15 °C and in the control group. Our findings strengthened the evidence that exposure to suboptimal ambient temperatures may trigger adverse pregnancy outcomes and worsen embryo and fetal development in mice.

Utilizing daily excessive concentration hours to estimate cardiovascular mortality and years of life lost attributable to fine particulate matter in Tehran, Iran

BACKGROUND

Evidence for associations between fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Iran is scarce. Given large within-day variations of PM_2.5 concentration, using the daily mean of PM_2.5 (PM_2.5mean) as exposure metric might bias the health-related assessment. This study applied a novel indicator, daily excessive concentration hours (DECH), to evaluate the effect of ambient PM_2.5 on CVD mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in Tehran, the capital city of Iran.

METHODS

Hourly concentration data for PM_2.5, daily information for meteorology and records of registered cardiovascular deaths from 2012 to 2016 were obtained from Tehran, Iran. Daily excessive concentration hours of PM_2.5 (PM_2.5DECH) was defined as daily total concentration-hours exceeding 35 μg/m³. Using a time-series design, we applied generalized linear models to assess the attributable effects of PM_2.5DECH and PM_2.5mean on CVD mortality and YLL.

RESULTS

For an interquartile range (IQR) rise in PM_2.5DECH, total CVD mortality at lag 0-10 days and YLL at lag 0-8 days increased 2.26% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85-3.69%) and 23.24 (6.07-40.42) person years, respectively. Corresponding increases were 3.45% (1.44-5.49%) and 35.21 (10.85-59.58) person years for an IQR rise in PM_2.5mean. Significant associations between PM_2.5 pollution (i.e., PM_2.5mean and PM_2.5DECH) and cause-specific cardiovascular health (i.e., mortality and YLL) were only identified in stroke. Subgroup analyses showed that male and people aged 0-64 years suffered more from PM_2.5 pollution. Furthermore, we attributed a greater CVD burden to PM_2.5DECH (1.67% for mortality and 2.67% for YLL) than PM_2.5mean (0.63% for mortality and 0.70% for YLL) during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study strengthened the evidence for the aggravated CVD mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM_2.5. Our findings also suggested that PM_2.5DECH might be a potential alternative indicator of exposure assessment in PM_2.5-related health investigations.

Short-term effects of particulate matter during desert and non-desert dust days on mortality in Iran

BACKGROUND

Increased atmospheric particulate matter (PM) concentrations are commonly observed during desert dust days in Iran, but there is still no evidence of their effects on human health. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily mortality and exposure to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 during dust and non-dust days in Tehran and Ahvaz, two major Middle Eastern cities with different sources, intensity, and frequency of desert dust days.

METHODS

We identified desert dust days based on exceeding a daily PM₁₀ concentration threshold of 150 µg/m³ between 2014 and 2017, checking for low PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratio typical of dust days. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to estimate the short-term effects of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations on daily mortality during dust and non-dust days. Data was analyzed using conditional Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Higher concentrations of PM and frequency of desert dust days were observed in Ahvaz rather than Tehran. In Ahvaz, the effect of PM₁₀ at lag 0 was much higher during dust days, an increment of 10 μg/m³ was associated with 3.28% (95%CI = [2.42, 4.15]) increase of daily mortality, than non-dust days, 1.03% (95%CI = [-0.02, 2.08]), while in Tehran, was slightly higher during non-dust days, 0.72% (95%CI = [0.23, 1.23]), than in dust days, 0.49% (95%CI = [-0.22, 1.20]). No statistically significant associations were observed between PM_2.5 and daily mortality in Ahvaz, while in Teheran the effect of PM_2.5 increased significantly during non-dust days at lag 2, 1.89% (95%CI = [0.83, 1.2.95] and lag 3, 1.88% (95%CI = [0.83, 1.2.95]).

CONCLUSION

The study provides evidence that exposure to PM during Middle East dust days is an important risk factor to human health in arid regions and areas affected by desert dust events.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.

METHODS

We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.

RESULTS

Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026.

Effect of Air Temperature and Universal Thermal Climate Index on Respiratory Diseases Mortality in Mashhad, Iran

OBJECTIVE

Climatic factors with desired and sometimes undesired effects lead to changes in the human body, such as hypothermia, influenza, heart disease, stroke, asthma, etc. The present study investigates the role of temperature in respiratory mortality in Mashhad, Iran.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Among the respiratory mortality data, daily temperature, wind speed and relative humidity from 2004 to 2013 were used. First, Tmrt parameter was calculated through Ray Man software and the values of UTCI index were obtained using Bioklima software. Finally, the correlation between the thresholds of the above-mentioned index and temperature as well as mortality was calculated. In addition, the mortality risk ratio in all of these thresholds was calculated.

RESULT

The results show that the UTCI index has changed from 32°C to 40°C in Mashhad. There is a strong and negative relationship between the maximum temperature (r = -0.90, P-value < 0.001) and mortality, and a positive relationship between the minimum temperature and mortality. In addition, the correlation between index and mortality shows that the highest positive and strong correlation is observed in negative temperature thresholds with cold stress. Thresholds with thermal stress are also inversely associated with mortality. The study of the mortality risk ratio in all thermal stress thresholds shows that in average cold stresses and a 10°C reduction, the mortality risk ratio increases by 1.36% in the significance level of 95%.

CONCLUSION

Generally, mortality increases with decreasing temperature and increasing cold stresses and the mortality risk increases by 1.36% per 10°C reduction.