Analysis of the burden of disease attributable to environmental risk factors in Mexico in the 1990-2021 period. Identification of advances, lags and emergencies

BACKGROUND

It is estimated that environmental risk factors (ERF) were responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2019.

OBJECTIVE

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, indicators of health loss associated with exposure to ERF in Mexico were analyzed.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Absolute numbers and population percentages of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost attributed to selected ERFs were analyzed at the national and state level and by sex, as well as age-standardized trends from 1990 to 2021.

RESULTS

In 2021, ambient particulate matter pollution showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost attributed to selected ERFs (42.2 and 38.1% respectively), followed by lead exposure (20.6 and 13.4%) and low temperature (19.8 and 12.3%). Both indicators have decreased for all selected ERAs by different magnitudes between 1991 and 2021, except for high temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite decreases in the last 32 years, outdoor environment particulate matter showed the highest mortality and DALYs lost, followed by lead exposure. It is essential to strengthen air quality and lead exposure policies in Mexico.

Short term exposure to ambient air pollutants and cardiovascular emergency department visits in Mexico city

Available data on the acute cardiovascular effect of ambient air pollution (AAP) in Latin America is limited considering that over 80% of its 1 billion inhabitants live in urban settlements with poor air quality. The study aim was to evaluate the association between Cardiovascular Emergency Department Visits (CEDVs) and AAP in Mexico City from 2016 to 2019 using generalized additive models with distributed lags to examine the percentage change of CEDVs and a backward approach of time-series model to calculate attributable fractions. A total of 48,891 CEDVs were recorded in a period of 1019 days. We estimated a significant percentage increase for each 10 μg/m³ of PM₁₀ at Lag0-5 (2.8%, 95%CI 0.6-5.0), PM_2.5 at Lag0-6 (3.7%, 95%CI 0.1-7.6), O₃ at Lag0-5 (1.1%, 95%CI 0.2-2.0), NO₂ at Lag0-4 (2.5%, 95%CI 0.3-4.7) and for each 1 mg/m³ of CO at Lag0 (6.6%, 95%CI 0.3-13.2). Overall, 10.3% of CEDVs in Mexico City may be related to PM¹⁰ exposure, 9.5% to PM_2.5, 10.3% to O₃, 11% to NO₂ and 5.7% to CO. AAP significantly increase cardiovascular morbidity impacting on emergency medical services.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM_2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m³ increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Prenatal PM2.5 exposure and neurodevelopment at 2 years of age in a birth cohort from Mexico city

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have reported that air pollution exposure may have neurotoxic properties.

OBJECTIVE

To examine longitudinal associations between prenatal particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5) exposure and neurodevelopment during the first two years of children's life.

METHODS

Analysis was conducted in PROGRESS, a longitudinal birth cohort between 2007 and 2013 in Mexico City. We used satellite data to predict daily PM_2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolution. Multivariate mixed-effect regression models were adjusted to examine cognitive, language and motor scores in children up to 24 months of age (n = 740) and each trimester-specific and whole pregnancy exposure to PM_2.5.

RESULTS

Models adjusted by child sex, gestational age, birth weight, smoking and mother's IQ, showed that each increase of 1 μg/m³ of PM_2.5 was associated with a decreased language function of -0.38 points (95% CI: -0.77, -0.01). PM_2.5 exposure at third trimester of pregnancy contributed most to the observed association.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that language development up to 24 months of age may be particularly sensitive to PM_2.5 exposure during pregnancy.

Revisión rápida de los efectos de la variación de la temperatura y la humedad en la morbilidad y mortalidad por Covid-19

Objetivo. Resumir y analizar la evidencia de la asociación entre Covid-19 y factores climáticos. Material y métodos. Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. Se buscaron artículos publicados del 1 de enero al 27 de abril de 2020 en una base de datos académica y preprints. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por dos investigadores y los textos completos por cinco investigadores. Resultados. De 354 artículos identificados, 26 cumplieron los criterios de elegibilidad establecidos. De éstos, 20 observaron una asociación inversa. Al evaluar su calidad, nueve calificaron con validez moderada, porque si bien ajustaron por covariables en el análisis, son estudios ecológicos. Conclusiones. A pesar de la homogeneidad de resultados, los factores climáticos explican un porcentaje pequeño de la variación de Covid-19. Son necesarios estudios con periodo de análisis más largo que capten tendencia y estacionalidad e incluyan factores de riesgo individuales.

[Mortality associated with fine and coarse suspended particles, in inhabitants of Monterrey Metropolitan Area]

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the mortality risk of fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particles in the Metropolitan Area of Mon-terrey (MAM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective ecological time-series analysis (2000-2014) was conducted using total and specific causes of mortality, and daily mean PM2.5 and PM2.5-10. Generalized additive distributed lag models controlling for trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteoro-logical conditions and gaseous pollutants.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 concentrations were 26.59 μg/m3(11.06 μg/m3) and 48.83 μg/m3 (21.15 μg/m3). An increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 (lag 0) was associated with 11.16% (95%CI:1.03-21.39) increased risk of respiratory mortality in children <=5 years old and 6.6% (95%CI 3.31-9.37) increased risk of pneumonia-influenza in adults >=65 years old. The risk of mortality associated with the concentration of coarse particles was lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Positive and significant associations were observed between exposure to particulate matter and daily mortality in the MAM ́s population.

[Quick review: air pollution and morbi-mortalityby Covid-19.]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the evidence on the relationship between air pollution and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An adaptation of the Cochrane rapid review methodology was used. The search was performed in PubMed and MedRxiv and was limited until April 28 and 26, respectively. The titles and abstracts were reviewed by five researchers who, in turn, reviewed the full texts of the final selection.

RESULTS

450 manuscripts were found, 15 met the inclusion criteria. The evidence reports that the incidence and risk of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 increase with chronic and acute exposure to air pollution, particularly to particulate matter (PM2.5, P M10) and nitrogen dioxide.

CONCLUSIONS

More studies are required especially in Latin American cities. It is necessary to strengthen the recommendations in cities with higher levels of pollutants and to reduce their emissions.

Children's acute respiratory symptoms associated with PM2.5 estimates in two sequential representative surveys from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

BACKGROUND

Respiratory diseases are a major component of morbidity in children and their symptoms may be spatially and temporally exacerbated by exposure gradients of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in large polluted urban areas, like the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA).

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the association between satellite-derived and interpolated PM_2.5 estimates with children's (≤9 years old) acute respiratory symptoms (ARS) in two probabilistic samples representing the MCMA.

METHODS

We obtained ARS data from the 2006 and 2012 National Surveys for Health and Nutrition (ENSaNut). Two week average exposure to PM_2.5 was assessed for each household with spatial estimates from a hybrid model with satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD-PM_2.5) and also with interpolated PM_2.5 measurements from ground stations, from the Mexico City monitoring network (MNW-PM_2.5). We used survey-adjusted logistic regressions to analyze the association between PM_2.5 estimates and ARS reported on children.

RESULTS

A total of 1,005 and 1,233 children were surveyed in 2006 and 2012 representing 3.1 and 3.5 million children, respectively. For the same years and over the periods of study, the estimated prevalence of ARS decreased from 49.4% (95% CI: 44.9,53.9%) to 37.8% (95% CI: 34,41.7%). AOD-PM_2.5 and MNW-PM_2.5 estimates were associated with significantly higher reports of ARS in children 0-4 years old [OR₂₀₀₆ = 1.29 (95% (CI): 0.99,1.68) and OR₂₀₀₆ = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.08,1.42), respectively]. We observed positive non-significant associations in 2012 in both age groups and in 2006 for children 5-9 years old. No statistically significant differences in health effect estimates of PM_2.5 were found comparing AOD-PM_2.5 or MNW-PM_2.5 for exposure assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that PM_2.5 is a risk factor for the prevalence of ARS in children and expand the growing evidence of the utility of new satellite AOD-based methods for estimating health effects from acute exposure to PM_2.5.

Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico

Multi-city studies assessing the association between acute exposure to temperature and mortality in Latin American are limited. To analyze the short-term effect of changes in temperature (increase and decrease) on daily non-external and cardiovascular mortality from 1998 to 2014, in people 65 years old and over living in 10 metropolitan areas of Mexico. Analyses were performed through Poisson regression models with distributed lag non-linear models. Statistical comparison of minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and city-specific cutoffs of 24-h temperature mean values (5th/95th and 1st/99th percentiles) were used to obtain the mortality relative Risk (RR) for cold/hot and extreme cold/extreme hot, respectively, for the same day and lags of 0-3, 0-7, and 0-21 days. A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the estimates (RR_pooled). Significant non-linear associations of temperature-mortality relation were found in U or inverted J shape. The best predictors of mortality associations with cold and heat were daily temperatures at lag 0-7 and lag 0-3, respectively. RR_pooled of non-external causes was 6.3% (95%CI 2.7, 10.0) for cold and 10.2% (95%CI 4.4, 16.2) for hot temperatures. The RR_pooled for cardiovascular mortality was 7.1% (95%CI 0.01, 14.7) for cold and 7.1% (95%CI 0.6, 14.0) for hot temperatures. Results suggest that, starting from the MMT, the changes in temperature are associated with an increased risk of non-external and specific causes of mortality in elderly people. Generally, heat effects on non-external and specific causes of mortality occur immediately, while cold effects occur within a few days and last longer.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities

BACKGROUND

The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM_2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived.

RESULTS

On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM₁₀ concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM_2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

State of Children Environmental Health Research in Latin America

Background:

Promotion of biomedical research along with the development of evidence-based prevention policies have been suggested as an effective way to reduce environmental risks for children’s health in Latin America. However, there is little information on the current state of childhood environmental health research, which might help identify its strengths and limitations, as well as to design a strategy to improve the future of child environmental health research in the region.

Objective:

To describe the current state of environmental health research on children exposed to environmental pollutants in Latin America.

Methodology:

We performed a comprehensive search of published peer-reviewed environmental health articles (1994–2014), dealing with the exposure of Latin American children to chemical compounds. We described the type of studies and their research topics, and identified networks of co-authors. We also analyzed the relationship between research funding sources and the impact factor (IF) of the journal where research was published.

Results:

The average number of publications was about 20 per year. Mexico and Brazil produced almost 70% of the 409 identified papers. The most studied contaminant was lead, but research on this element has declined since 2005. Retrospective studies were the most frequent, and also showed a decreasing trend. Most studies did not assess health effects. Four groups of leading investigators and two collaboration models for scientific production were identified. Except for Mexico, there was very little collaboration with North American and European countries. Compared to articles that did not report financial support, those that received international funding had on average an IF around 7, and those with national funding reached a mean IF near 3.

Conclusion:

There is a limited number of publications and insufficient collaboration between Latin-American scientists. It is necessary to identify strategies to stimulate South-South-North alliances and strengthen the scarce research on the environmental health of children in the region.

Climate Change and Potential Health Effects in Mexican Children

Climate change (CC) is the most important challenge of our time, a long-term global problem and one of the most serious global threats to human health in the future. CC is the expression of changes in temperature and water cycle, floods and drought events, extreme heat waves and sea level rise. Children are particularly vulnerable because they are highly sensitive to climate changes. The main environmental hazards affecting children's health are poor household drinking water quality and availability, lack access to adequate sanitary facilities, poor hygiene practices, outdoor and indoor air pollution, vector-borne diseases, chemical hazards, and unintentional injuries. Except for some unintentional injuries, these environmental hazards are associated to CC.

Effects of climatic and social factors on dengue incidence in Mexican municipalities in the state of Veracruz

Objective:

To assess links between the social variables and longer-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related weather conditions as they relate to the week-to-week changes in dengue incidence at a regional level.

Materials and methods:

We collected data from 10 municipalities of the Olmeca region in México, over a 10 year period (January 1995 to December 2005). Negative binomial models with distributed lags were adjusted to look for associations between changes in the weekly incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability.

Results:

Our results show that it takes approximately six weeks for sea surface temperatures (SST -34) to affect dengue incidence adjusted by weather and social variables.

Conclusion:

Such models could be used as early as two months in advance to provide information to decision makers about potential epidemics. Elucidating the effect of climatic variability and social variables, could assist in the development of accurate early warning systems for epidemics like dengue, Chikungunya and Zika.

Effect of particulate matter less than 10µm (PM10) on mortality in Bogota, Colombia: a time-series analysis, 1998-2006

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between daily mortality from different causes and acute exposure to particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), in Bogota, Colombia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A time-series ecological study was conducted from 1998 to 2006. The association between mortality (due to different causes) and exposure was analyzed using single and distributed lag models and adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

For all ages, the cumulative effect of acute mortality from all causes and respiratory causes increased 0.71% (95%CI 0.46-0.96) and 1.43% (95%CI 0.85-2.00), respectively, per 10µg/m³ increment in daily average PM10 with a lag of three days before death. Cumulative effect of mortality from cardiovascular causes was -0.03% (95%CI -0.49-0.44%) with the same lag.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest an association between an increase in PM10 concentrations and acute mortality from all causes and respiratory causes.

Effect of socioeconomic status on the association between air pollution and mortality in Bogota, Colombia

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the modification effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on the association between acute exposure to particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and mortality in Bogota, Colombia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A time-series ecological study was conducted (1998-2006). The localities of the cities were stratified using principal components analysis, creating three levels of aggregation that allowed for the evaluation of the impact of SES on the relationship between mortality and air pollution.

RESULTS

For all ages, the change in the mortality risk for all causes was 0.76% (95%CI 0.27-1.26) for SES I (low), 0.58% (95%CI 0.16-1.00) for SES II (mid) and -0.29% (95%CI -1.16-0.57) for SES III (high) per 10µg/m³ increment in the daily average of PM10 on day of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that SES significantly modifies the effect of environmental exposure to PM10 on mortality from all causes and respiratory causes.

[Local conditions of vulnerability associated with dengue in two communities of Morelos]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the vulnerability associated with the occurrence of dengue in two villages of Morelos, Mexico from 2006 to 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A survey on knowledge, risk perception, prevention practices and water use was applied in two villages of Morelos. Using a principal component analysis, an index of local vulnerability to dengue (IVL) was constructed. The association of IVL with the disease at home was assessed using a Chi-square test.

RESULTS

The IVL included five components explaining 63% of the variance and was classified in three categories: low, medium and high. There was a significant association between increased vulnerability and prevalence of reported cases of dengue in Temixco and Tlaquiltenango.

CONCLUSION

The study of vulnerability to dengue allows us to identify local needs in the field of health promotion.

Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study)

INTRODUCTION

The ESCALA* project (Estudio de Salud y Contaminación del Aire en Latinoamérica) is an HEI-funded study that aims to examine the association between exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in nine Latin American cities, using a common analytic framework to obtain comparable and updated information on the effects of air pollution on several causes of death in different age groups. This report summarizes the work conducted between 2006 and 2009, describes the methodologic issues addressed during project development, and presents city-specific results of meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses.

METHODS

The ESCALA project involved three teams of investigators responsible for collection and analysis of city-specific air pollution and mortality data from three different countries. The teams designed five different protocols to standardize the methods of data collection and analysis that would be used to evaluate the effects of air pollution on mortality (see Appendices B-F). By following the same protocols, the investigators could directly compare the results among cities. The analysis was conducted in two stages. The first stage included analyses of all-natural-cause and cause-specific mortality related to particulate matter < or = 10 pm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and to ozone (O3) in cities of Brazil, Chile, and México. Analyses for PM10 and O3 were also stratified by age group and O3 analyses were stratified by season. Generalized linear models (GLM) in Poisson regression were used to fit the time-series data. Time trends and seasonality were modeled using natural splines with 3, 6, 9, or 12 degrees of freedom (df) per year. Temperature and humidity were also modeled using natural splines, initially with 3 or 6 df, and then with degrees of freedom chosen on the basis of residual diagnostics (i.e., partial autocorrelation function [PACF], periodograms, and a Q-Q plot) (Appendix H, available on the HEI Web site). Indicator variables for day-of-week and holidays were used to account for short-term cyclic fluctuations. To assess the association between exposure to air pollution and risk of death, the PM10 and O3 data were fit using distributed lag models (DLMs). These models are based on findings indicating that the health effects associated with air pollutant concentrations on a given day may accumulate over several subsequent days. Each DLM measured the cumulative effect of a pollutant concentration on a given day (day 0) and that day's contribution to the effect of that pollutant on multiple subsequent (lagged) days. For this study, exposure lags of up to 3, 5, and 10 days were explored. However, only the results of the DLMs using a 3-day lag (DLM 0-3) are presented in this report because we found a decreasing association with mortality in various age-cause groups for increasing lag effects from 3 to 5 days for both PM10 and O3. The potential modifying effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on the association of PM10 or O3 concentration and mortality was also explored in four cities: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santiago. The methodology for developing a common SES index is presented in the report. The second stage included meta-analyses and metaregression. During this stage, the associations between mortality and air pollution were compared among cities to evaluate the presence of heterogeneity and to explore city-level variables that might explain this heterogeneity. Meta-analyses were conducted to combine mortality effect estimates across cities and to evaluate the presence of heterogeneity among city results, whereas meta-regression models were used to explore variables that might explain the heterogeneity among cities in mortality risks associated with exposures to PM10 (but not to O3).

RESULTS

The results of the mortality analyses are presented as risk percent changes (RPC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RPC is the increase in mortality risk associated with an increase of 10 microg/m3 in the 24-hour average concentration of PM10 or in the daily maximum 8-hour moving average concentration of O3. Most of the results for PM10 were positive and statistically significant, showing an increased risk of mortality with increased ambient concentrations. Results for O3 also showed a statistically significant increase in mortality in the cities with available data. With the distributed lag model, DLM 0-3, PM10 ambient concentrations were associated with an increased risk of mortality in all cities except Concepci6n and Temuco. In Mexico City and Santiago the RPC and 95% CIs were 1.02% (0.87 to 1.17) and 0.48% (0.35 to 0.61), respectively. PM10 was also significantly associated with increased mortality from cardiopulmonary, respiratory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular-stroke, and chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) in most cities. The few nonsignificant effects generally were observed in the smallest cities (Concepción, Temuco, and Toluca). The percentage increases in mortality associated with ambient O3 concentrations were smaller than for those associated with PM10. All-natural-cause mortality was significantly related to O3 in Mexico City, Monterrey, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Increased mortality risks for some specific causes were also observed in these cities and in Santiago. In the analyses stratified by season, different patterns in mortality and O3 were observed for cold and warm seasons. Risk estimates for the warm season were larger and significant for several causes of death in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Risk estimates for the cold season were larger and significant for some causes of death in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Toluca. In an analysis stratified by SES, the all-natural-cause mortality risk in Mexico City was larger for people with a medium SES; however we observed that the risk of mortality related to respiratory causes was larger among people with a low SES, while the risk of mortality related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular-stroke causes was larger among people with medium or high SES. In São Paulo, the all-natural-cause mortality risk was larger in people with a high SES, while in Rio de Janeiro the all-natural-cause mortality risk was larger in people with a low SES. In both Brazilian cities, the risks of mortality were larger for respiratory causes, especially for the low- and high-SES groups. In Santiago, all-natural-cause mortality risk did not vary with level of SES; however, people with a low SES had a higher respiratory mortality risk, particularly for COPD. People with a medium SES had larger risks of mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular-stroke disease. The effect of ambient PM10 concentrations on infant and child mortality from respiratory causes and lower respiratory infection (LRI) was studied only for Mexico City, Santiago, and São Paulo. Significant increased mortality risk from these causes was observed in both Santiago (in infants and older children) and Mexico City (only in infants). For O3, an increased mortality risk was observed in Mexico City (in infants and older children) and in São Paulo (only in infants during the warm season). The results of the meta-analyses confirmed the positive and statistically significant association between PM10 and all-natural-cause mortality (RPC = 0.77% [95% CI: 0.60 to 1.00]) using the random-effects model. For mortality from specific causes, the percentage increase in mortality ranged from 0.72% (0.54 to 0.89) for cardiovascular disease to 2.44% (1.36 to 3.59) for COPD, also using the random-effects model. For O3, significant positive associations were observed using the random-effects model for some causes, but not for all natural causes or for respiratory diseases in people 65 years or older (> or = 65 years), and not for COPD and cerebrovascular-stroke in the all-age and the > or = 65 age groups. The percentage increase in all-natural-cause mortality was 0.16% (-0.02 to 0.33). In the meta-regression analyses, variables that best explained heterogeneity in mortality risks among cities were the mean average of temperature in the warm season, population percentage of infants (< 1 year), population percentage of children at least 1 year old but < 5 years (i.e., 1-4 years), population percentage of people > or = 65 years, geographic density of PM10 monitors, annual average concentrations of PM10, and mortality rates for lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The ESCALA project was undertaken to obtain information for assessing the effects of air pollutants on mortality in Latin America, where large populations are exposed to relatively high levels of ambient air pollution. An important goal was to provide evidence that could inform policies for controlling air pollution in Latin America. This project included the development of standardized protocols for data collection and for statistical analyses as well as statistical analytic programs (routines developed in R by the ESCALA team) to insure comparability of results. The analytic approach and statistical programming developed within this project should be of value for researchers carrying out single-city analyses and should facilitate the inclusion of additional Latin American cities within the ESCALA multicity project. Our analyses confirm what has been observed in other parts of the world regarding the effects of ambient PM10 and 03 concentrations on daily mortality. They also suggest that SES plays a role in the susceptibility of a population to air pollution; people with a lower SES appeared to have an increased risk of death from respiratory causes, particularly COPD. Compared with the general population, infants and young children appeared to be more susceptible to both PM10 and O3, although an increased risk of mortality was not observed in these age groups in all cities. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Effect of PM(10) and O(3) on infant mortality among residents in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: a case-crossover analysis, 1997-2005

INTRODUCTION

Consistent evidence has shown a positive association between air pollution and daily mortality among adults. Less is known about its effect on infant mortality and the modification of this association by socioeconomic status (SES).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤10μm (PM(10)) and ozone (O(3)) on infant mortality and its modification by SES.

METHODS

We evaluated the relationship of 24 h mean PM(10) and 1h daily maximum O(3) levels with 12 079 all-cause deaths (3903 respiratory deaths) among 1- to 11-month-old infants residing in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area between January 1997 and December 2005 using a case-crossover approach. The data were analysed using conditional logistic regression models, controlling for weather conditions and day of the week.

RESULTS

Single-effect models showed, for all-cause mortality, increases of 5.5% (95% CI 1% to 10%) at lag1 and 6.6% (2% to 11.4%) at lag2; cumulative exposure models (0-2 days) showed an increase of 6.3% (0.01% to 32.7%). Respiratory mortality increased marginally at 5.3% (-0.02% to 13.2%) with a 1-day lag and 10% (2.1% to 18%) with a 2-day lag per increase of 38.7 μg/m(3) (IQR) in PM(10) levels. When data were stratified by SES (low, medium, and high), only infants with low and medium SES presented a significant increase in risk of all-cause mortality and respiratory mortality in relation to PM(10). O(3) was only significantly related to respiratory mortality in low SES.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, infants with lower SES (low to medium) are at higher risk of mortality when exposed to ambient PM(10) and O(3).

Short communication: impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue in Mexico

We evaluated the impact of weather variables and climatic indicators associated with the incidence of dengue in two municipalities of the state of Veracruz, Mexico, from 1995 to 2003. A retrospective ecological study was conducted, using time-series analysis in which we compiled the weekly reported cases of dengue and the weather and climatic parameters: temperature, rainfall and sea-surface temperature (SST), the latter as an El Niño Southern Oscillation indicator. We statistically evaluated the data with autogressive models. The models' predictive abilities were evaluated using data collected from 1995 to 2002 and were validated with those observed for 2003. Each degree Centigrade increase in SST was followed by an increase in the number of dengue cases: 46% in San Andrés Tuxtla (P = 0.001) 16 weeks later and 42% in Veracruz 20 weeks later (P = 0.002). Increases in weekly minimum temperature and rainfall were also significant factors in the increase in the reported cases of dengue. We recommend future studies using the same method, involving larger populations with different geographic location, climate and weather. We also recommend strengthening environmental, health and entomological surveillance systems to improve preparedness and emergency responses.