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Ben-Haim Y. Managing uncertainty in decision-making for conservation science. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14164. [PMID: 37551765 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
Science-based decision-making is the ideal. However, scientific knowledge is incomplete, and sometimes wrong. Responsible science-based policy, planning, and action must exploit knowledge while managing uncertainty. I considered the info-gap method to manage deep uncertainty surrounding knowledge that is used for decision-making in conservation. A central concept is satisficing, which means satisfying a critical requirement. Alternative decisions are prioritized based on their robustness to uncertainty, and critical outcome requirements are satisficed. Robustness is optimized; outcome is satisficed. This is called robust satisficing. A decision with a suboptimal outcome may be preferred over a decision with a putatively optimal outcome if the former can more robustly achieve an acceptable outcome. Many biodiversity conservation applications employ info-gap theory, under which parameter uncertainty but not uncertainty in functional relations is considered. I considered info-gap models of functional uncertainty, widely used outside of conservation science, as applied to conservation of a generic endangered species by translocation to a new region. I focused on 2 uncertainties: the future temperature is uncertain due to climate change, and the shape of the reproductive output function is uncertain due to translocation to an unfamiliar region. The value of new information is demonstrated based on the robustness function, and the info-gap opportuneness function demonstrates the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yakov Ben-Haim
- Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel
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Yoshikawa T, Koide D, Yokomizo H, Kim JY, Kadoya T. Assessing ecosystem vulnerability under severe uncertainty of global climate change. Sci Rep 2023; 13:5932. [PMID: 37045937 PMCID: PMC10097691 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-31597-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Assessing the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of species, communities, and ecosystems is essential for successful conservation. Climate change, however, induces extreme uncertainty in various pathways of assessments, which hampers robust decision-making for conservation. Here, we developed a framework that allows us to quantify the level of acceptable uncertainty as a metric of ecosystem robustness, considering the uncertainty due to climate change. Under the framework, utilizing a key concept from info-gap decision theory, vulnerability is measured as the inverse of maximum acceptable uncertainty to fulfill the minimum required goal for conservation. We applied the framework to 42 natural forest ecosystems and assessed their acceptable uncertainties in terms of maintenance of species richness and forest functional type. Based on best-guess estimate of future temperature in various GCM models and RCP scenarios, and assuming that tree species survival is primarily determined by mean annual temperature, we performed simulations with increasing deviation from the best-guess temperature. Our simulations indicated that the acceptable uncertainty varied greatly among the forest plots, presumably reflecting the distribution of ecological traits and niches among species within the communities. Our framework provides acceptable uncertainty as an operational metric of ecosystem robustness under uncertainty, while incorporating both system properties and socioeconomic conditions. We argue that our framework can enhance social consensus building and decision-making in the face of the extreme uncertainty induced by global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tetsuro Yoshikawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
- Graduate School of Science, Osaka Metropolitan University, 3-3-138 Sugimoto, Sumiyoshi-ku, Osaka, 558-8585, Japan.
| | - Dai Koide
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Yokomizo
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Ji Yoon Kim
- Department of Biological Science, Kunsan National University, 558 Daehak-ro, Gunsan-si, Jeolabuk-do, 54150, Republic of Korea
| | - Taku Kadoya
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
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Rycken S, Shephard JM, Yeap L, Vaughan-Higgins R, Page M, Dawson R, Smith K, Mawson PR, Warren KS. Regional variation in habitat matrix determines movement metrics in Baudin’s cockatoos in southwest Western Australia. WILDLIFE RESEARCH 2021. [DOI: 10.1071/wr19076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
ContextThe Baudin’s cockatoo is one of three black cockatoo species endemic to Western Australia and is listed as Endangered by state and federal governments. Although there is a Recovery Plan in place for this species, conservation efforts are hindered by gaps in knowledge regarding the species movement ecology.
AimsTo identify key foraging and roosting habitat for Baudin’s cockatoos and to determine differences in flock movements, including the spatial extent of movement, in Urban, Peri-urban and Forest regions using telemetry data.
MethodsWild Baudin’s cockatoos that had been injured and undergone rehabilitation were equipped with satellite PTT (platform transmitter terminal) and GPS tags and released back into wild flocks. The study birds, and the flocks into which they integrated, were tracked in the field to collect telemetry and observational data. Satellite data were used to define the types of movement behaviour (resident, ranging, migratory), and GPS data were analysed to determine key foraging and roosting habitat, and to calculate home range area estimates.
Key resultsThere was a significant difference in flock movement between the Urban/Peri-urban regions and the Forest region in terms of daily distances moved and distances between roosts, with these parameters being far greater for the Forest region. Additionally, flock sizes were larger in the Forest region compared with the Urban and Peri-urban regions. In Urban and Peri-urban regions, key habitat comprised remnant vegetation in urban green space (nature reserves, parks and private property), and roadside and riparian vegetation, which served as movement corridors in the landscape.
ConclusionsThe research shows that it is important to maintain vegetation connectivity in the landscape. This enables Baudin’s cockatoos to utilise key patches of remnant vegetation in their non-breeding wintering grounds in Urban and Peri-urban regions of the Perth Peel Coastal Plain. Further research on the movement ecology of Baudin’s cockatoos should focus on habitat suitability modelling, which, in combination with the identified key habitat sites, will benefit the decision-making process in relation to conservation management of this endangered black cockatoo species.
ImplicationsThis research has benefited the conservation management of Baudin’s cockatoos by providing information on key habitat through satellite tracking and outlining the importance of the connective features of remnant vegetation. We advocate for further telemetry studies combined with habitat suitability modelling to preserve the necessary habitat for the persistence of this species in the Western Australian landscape.
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Bolam FC, Grainger MJ, Mengersen KL, Stewart GB, Sutherland WJ, Runge MC, McGowan PJK. Using the Value of Information to improve conservation decision making. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2018; 94:629-647. [PMID: 30280477 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2017] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g. economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision-analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms 'Value of Information,' 'Expected Value of Perfect Information,' and the abbreviation 'EVPI.' Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that showed an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, the models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Friederike C Bolam
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K
| | - Matthew J Grainger
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K
| | - Kerrie L Mengersen
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George St, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
| | - Gavin B Stewart
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K
| | - William J Sutherland
- Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, U.K
| | - Michael C Runge
- US Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Centre, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, U.S.A
| | - Philip J K McGowan
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K
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Richards ZT, Day JC. Biodiversity of the Great Barrier Reef-how adequately is it protected? PeerJ 2018; 6:e4747. [PMID: 29761059 PMCID: PMC5947040 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2017] [Accepted: 04/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the world's most iconic coral reef ecosystem, recognised internationally as a World Heritage Area of outstanding significance. Safeguarding the biodiversity of this universally important reef is a core legislative objective; however, ongoing cumulative impacts including widespread coral bleaching and other detrimental impacts have heightened conservation concerns for the future of the GBR. Methods Here we review the literature to report on processes threatening species on the GBR, the status of marine biodiversity, and evaluate the extent of species-level monitoring and reporting. We assess how many species are listed as threatened at a global scale and explore whether these same species are protected under national threatened species legislation. We conclude this review by providing future directions for protecting potentially endangered elements of biodiversity within the GBR. Results Most of the threats identified to be harming the diversity of marine life on the GBR over the last two-three decades remain to be effectively addressed and many are worsening. The inherent resilience of this globally significant coral reef ecosystem has been seriously compromised and various elements of the biological diversity for which it is renowned may be at risk of silent extinction. We show at least 136 of the 12,000+ animal species known to occur on the GBR (approximately 20% of the 700 species assessed by the IUCN) occur in elevated categories of threat (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) at a global scale. Despite the wider background level of threat for these 136 species, only 23 of them are listed as threatened under regional or national legislation. Discussion To adequately protect the biodiversity values of the GBR, it may be necessary to conduct further targeted species-level monitoring and reporting to complement ecosystem management approaches. Conducting a vigorous value of information analysis would provide the opportunity to evaluate what new and targeted information is necessary to support dynamic management and to safeguard both species and the ecosystem as a whole. Such an analysis would help decision-makers determine if further comprehensive biodiversity surveys are needed, especially for those species recognised to be facing elevated background levels of threat. If further monitoring is undertaken, it will be important to ensure it aligns with and informs the GBRMPA Outlook five-year reporting schedule. The potential also exists to incorporate new environmental DNA technologies into routine monitoring to deliver high-resolution species data and identify indicator species that are cursors of specific disturbances. Unless more targeted action is taken to safeguard biodiversity, we may fail to pass onto future generations many of the values that comprise what is universally regarded as the world's most iconic coral reef ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zoe T Richards
- Trace and Environmental DNA Laboratory, School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, WA, Australia.,Aquatic Zoology Department, Western Australian Museum, Welshpool, WA, Australia
| | - Jon C Day
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University of North Queensland, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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Thompson RN, Gilligan CA, Cunniffe NJ. Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled? PLoS Comput Biol 2018; 14:e1006014. [PMID: 29451878 PMCID: PMC5833286 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2017] [Revised: 03/01/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted more precisely. There is also the chance that the outbreak might die out without any intervention whatsoever, making prophylactic control unnecessary. Optimal decision-making involves continuously balancing these potential benefits of waiting against the possible costs of further spread. We introduce a generic, extensible data-driven algorithm based on parameter estimation and outbreak simulation for making decisions in real-time concerning when and how to control an invading pathogen. The Control Smart Algorithm (CSA) resolves the trade-off between the competing advantages of controlling as soon as possible and controlling later when more information has become available. We show-using a generic mathematical model representing the transmission of a pathogen of agricultural animals or plants through a population of farms or fields-how the CSA allows the timing and level of deployment of vaccination or chemical control to be optimised. In particular, the algorithm outperforms simpler strategies such as intervening when the outbreak size reaches a pre-specified threshold, or controlling when the outbreak has persisted for a threshold length of time. This remains the case even if the simpler methods are fully optimised in advance. Our work highlights the potential benefits of giving careful consideration to the question of when to start disease management during emerging outbreaks, and provides a concrete framework to allow policy-makers to make this decision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robin N. Thompson
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Oxford OX2 6GG, United Kingdom
- Christ Church, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1DP, United Kingdom
| | | | - Nik J. Cunniffe
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, United Kingdom
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Woodill AJ, Nakamoto ST, Kawabata AM, Leung P. To Spray or Not to Spray: A Decision Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer in Hawaii. INSECTS 2017; 8:insects8040116. [PMID: 29065464 PMCID: PMC5746799 DOI: 10.3390/insects8040116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2017] [Revised: 10/13/2017] [Accepted: 10/17/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB) after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray) as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions.
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Affiliation(s)
- A John Woodill
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
- Department of Economics, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu 96822, HI, USA.
| | - Stuart T Nakamoto
- Department of Human Nutrition, Food and Animal Sciences, CTAHR, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
| | - Andrea M Kawabata
- Department of Tropical Plant and Soil Sciences, CTAHR, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
| | - PingSun Leung
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
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The influence of time since introduction on the population growth of introduced species and the consequences for management. POPUL ECOL 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-017-0581-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Torossian J, Kordas R, Helmuth B. Cross-Scale Approaches to Forecasting Biogeographic Responses to Climate Change. ADV ECOL RES 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/bs.aecr.2016.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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Ijima H, Fujimaki A, Ohta U, Yamamura K, Yokomizo H, Uno H, Matsuda H. Efficient management for the Hokkaido population of sika deer Cervus nippon in Japan: accounting for migration and management cost. POPUL ECOL 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-015-0478-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
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Hagen R, Kramer-Schadt S, Fahse L, Heurich M. Population control based on abundance estimates: Frequency does not compensate for uncertainty. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.07.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
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