Can widespread generalist predators affect keystone prey? A case study with red foxes and European rabbits in their native range

Do Mesocarnivores Respond to the Seasonality in Management Practices in an Agroforestry Landscape?

In the Mediterranean, we find a mosaic of natural and cultural landscapes, where a variety of forest management practices created intermediate disturbance regimes that potentially increased biodiversity values. Nonetheless, it is essential to understand the species' long-term response to the dynamic management in agroecosystems, since the species tolerance to disturbance can change throughout the life cycle. Mammalian carnivores can be sensitive to human disturbance and are an essential part of ecosystems due to their regulatory and community structuring effects. We investigated the spatial response of five mesocarnivores species to spatially- and temporally- varying management practices in an agroforestry landscape. More specifically, we assessed the mesocarnivores' temporal changes in space use by implementing multi-season occupancy models in a Bayesian framework, using seasonal camera-trapping surveys for a 2-year period. All species had a weak response of local extinction to forestry management and livestock grazing pressure. For forest-dwelling species, occupancy was higher where productivity of perennial vegetation was high, while colonization between seasons was positively associated with vegetation cover. For habitat generalist species, we found that occupancy in the wet season increased with the distance to cattle exclusion plots. Most of these plots are pine stands which are subject to forestry interventions during winter. During the 2-year period we found seasonal fluctuations in occupancy for all species, with an overall slight decrease for three mesocarnivore species, while for the two forest-dwelling species there was an increase in occupancy between years. The weak species response to management practices supports the importance of traditional management for upholding a diverse mesocarnivore community in agroforestry systems but could also reflect these species' ecological plasticity and resilience to disturbance.

Assessing the role of habitat, climate, and anthropization gradients on terrestrial mammal diversity in the western Mediterranean basin

Mammal species globally exhibit distribution patterns conditioned by environmental conditions and human impact. The Mediterranean basin provides an ideal system to study these effects due to its diverse climate, and habitat conditions. In this work, we aim to assess the impact of landscape heterogeneity and anthropization degree on terrestrial mammal diversity in this region. Accordingly, we deployed over 300 camera traps across 28 sites for 3 months. Detected mammal species (weighing more than 1kg) were classified as domestic carnivores, domestic ungulates, wild carnivores, wild ungulates, lagomorphs, and large rodents. Alpha and beta diversity were calculated for each group and all wild mammals. Simple linear regressions and multimodal analysis were conducted between mammal diversities and climate, environmental conditions, landscape heterogeneity, and anthropization degree variables. Redundancy analyses were performed to identify variables and species determining the mammalian community composition. Indexes measuring landscape heterogeneity, anthropization degree, and its 30-year change did not correlate with mammal diversity. However, the difference in elevation within sites and domestic carnivore abundance showed a significant positive correlation with some of the diversity indexes. Nonetheless, rainfall and mean elevation factors generally showed the highest correlation with mammal diversity. Instead, a few influential species, including generalists and open-habitat specialists, highlighted the importance of conserving open areas, as well as the importance of the Pyrenees region as a key habitat for certain species. Therefore, climatic variables emerged as the key determinants of mammal diversity, highlighting climate change as a potential threat to mammal diversity in this area.

Diet flexibility of wolves and black bears in the range of migratory caribou

The diet of predators can be highly variable, which is exemplified by their ability to acclimate to a wide range of ecological conditions. Such flexibility in foraging may be a key aspect of their performance in unpredictable environments such as at the edge of the range of a species or where food availability varies greatly in time and space. Gaining information on the diets of predators under such conditions could foster our comprehension of their ecological flexibility and the potential role of predation on the population dynamics of prey. We determined the diet of wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus) in northern Québec and Labrador (Canada) within the range of two migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds: the high-abundance Rivière-aux-Feuilles herd (RFH) and low-abundance Rivière-George herd (RGH). Worldwide, decline in caribou populations has become a concern, stressing the need to better understand the factors involved in these declines, including predation. In northern Québec (RFH range), caribou was the primary year-round prey of wolves while moose (Alces alces) and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) were consumed in some sectors. The diet of wolves in northern Labrador (RGH range) varied seasonally, with caribou, moose, and fish as main prey during different periods throughout the year. Black bear diets varied seasonally and regionally. Among the foods we analyzed, caribou was the main source of animal protein for bears in northern Québec and northern Labrador, except during a high abundance of Ungava collared lemming (Dicrostonyx hudsonius). Only bears in northern Québec ate caribou during late summer/fall. Our results highlight the diet flexibility of wolves and black bears in northern food webs, and how their diets change in relation to the distribution and abundance of prey. Our results will help quantify the potential impact of these predators on prey populations in northern systems.

Feral rabbit populations in a peri-urban area: insights about invasion dynamics and potential management strategies

Where introduced, the European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus is considered among the most destructive and invasive species. To date, research focused mostly on populations of wild rabbit, whereas little is known on feral domestic rabbit populations. In this work, we reported the establishment of two self-sustaining populations of feral rabbits in Italy. Direct observations were conducted to assess rabbit range expansion and population increase over time. We also evaluated prey-predator interactions between rabbits and native red foxes Vulpes vulpes, by means of camera trapping and the analysis of fox scats. Moreover, we also assessed the social perception towards feral rabbits and the acceptability of various management options through the administration of a structured questionnaire to park visitors. Rabbit populations increased between 2018 and 2019, as well as the size of the invaded range. Rabbits are predated by foxes, but they seem to have adapted their activity rhythms to minimize the risk of predation, becoming diurnal. Park visitors loved rabbits and deemed them to be a positive presence in the park, which deserve to live there. Surgical sterilization of rabbits was the only management option which was partially supported. Feral domestic rabbits, albeit a neglected species in invasion biology, can become extremely successful invaders of urban green areas: in < 5 years, rabbits were able to colonize our study area and become a food resource for native predators and also an iconic species. These three points raise concerns about the potential impacts of invasive feral rabbits in European urban green areas and call for further research in this direction.

Designing combination therapies using multiple optimal controls

Strategic management of populations of interacting biological species routinely requires interventions combining multiple treatments or therapies. This is important in key research areas such as ecology, epidemiology, wound healing and oncology. Despite the well developed theory and techniques for determining single optimal controls, there is limited practical guidance supporting implementation of combination therapies. In this work we use optimal control theory to calculate optimal strategies for applying combination therapies to a model of acute myeloid leukaemia. We present a versatile framework to systematically explore the trade-offs that arise in designing combination therapy protocols using optimal control. We consider various combinations of continuous and bang-bang (discrete) controls, and we investigate how the control dynamics interact and respond to changes in the weighting and form of the pay-off characterising optimality. We demonstrate that the optimal controls respond non-linearly to treatment strength and control parameters, due to the interactions between species. We discuss challenges in appropriately characterising optimality in a multiple control setting and provide practical guidance for applying multiple optimal controls. Code used in this work to implement multiple optimal controls is available on GitHub.

Generalized spatial mark-resight models with incomplete identification: An application to red fox density estimates

The estimation of abundance of wildlife populations is an essential part of ecological research and monitoring. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models are widely used for abundance and density estimation, frequently through individual identification of target species using camera-trap sampling.Generalized spatial mark-resight (Gen-SMR) is a recently developed SCR extension that allows for abundance estimation when only a subset of the population is recognizable by artificial or natural marks. However, in many cases, it is not possible to read the marks in camera-trap pictures, even though individuals can be recognized as marked. We present a new extension of Gen-SMR that allows for this type of incomplete identification.We used simulation to assess how the number of marked individuals and the individual identification rate influenced bias and precision. We demonstrate the model's performance in estimating red fox (Vulpes vulpes) density with two empirical datasets characterized by contrasting densities and rates of identification of marked individuals. According to the simulations, accuracy increases with the number of marked individuals (m), but is less sensitive to changes in individual identification rate (δ). In our case studies of red fox density estimation, we obtained a posterior mean of 1.60 (standard deviation SD: 0.32) and 0.28 (SD: 0.06) individuals/km2, in high and low density, with an identification rate of 0.21 and 0.91, respectively.This extension of Gen-SMR is broadly applicable as it addresses the common problem of incomplete identification of marked individuals during resighting surveys.

Disease-mediated bottom-up regulation: An emergent virus affects a keystone prey, and alters the dynamics of trophic webs

Emergent diseases may alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems by creating new biotic interactions and modifying existing ones, producing cascading processes along trophic webs. Recently, a new variant of the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV2 or RHDVb) arguably caused widespread declines in a keystone prey in Mediterranean ecosystems - the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We quantitatively assess the impact of RHDV2 on natural rabbit populations and in two endangered apex predator populations: the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and the Spanish Imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti). We found 60–70% declines in rabbit populations, followed by decreases of 65.7% in Iberian lynx and 45.5% in Spanish Imperial eagle fecundities. A revision of the web of trophic interactions among rabbits and their dependent predators suggests that RHDV2 acts as a keystone species, and may steer Mediterranean ecosystems to management-dependent alternative states, dominated by simplified mesopredator communities. This model system stresses the importance of diseases as functional players in the dynamics of trophic webs.