Comparison of survival rates between incident hemodialysis patients and peritoneal dialysis patients: a 5-year prospective cohort study with propensity score matching

Interpretable machine learning models for the prediction of all-cause mortality and time to death in hemodialysis patients

INTRODUCTION

The elevated mortality and hospitalization rates among hemodialysis (HD) patients underscore the necessity for the development of accurate predictive tools. This study developed two models for predicting all-cause mortality and time to death-one using a comprehensive database and another simpler model based on demographic and clinical data without laboratory tests.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2017 to June 2023. Two models were created: Model A with 85 variables and Model B with 22 variables. We assessed the models using random forest (RF), support vector machine, and logistic regression, comparing their performance via the AU-ROC. The RF regression model was used to predict time to death. To identify the most relevant factors for prediction, the Shapley value method was used.

RESULTS

Among 359 HD patients, the RF model provided the most reliable prediction. The optimized Model A showed an AU-ROC of 0.86 ± 0.07, a sensitivity of 0.86, and a specificity of 0.75 for predicting all-cause mortality. It also had an R2 of 0.59 for predicting time to death. The optimized Model B had an AU-ROC of 0.80 ± 0.06, a sensitivity of 0.81, and a specificity of 0.70 for predicting all-cause mortality. In addition, it had an R2 of 0.81 for predicting time to death.

CONCLUSION

Two new interpretable clinical tools have been proposed to predict all-cause mortality and time to death in HD patients using machine learning models. The minimal and readily accessible data on which Model B is based makes it a valuable tool for integrating into clinical decision-making processes.

Chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is defined by persistent abnormalities of kidney function or structure that have consequences for the health. A progressive decline of excretory kidney function has effects on body homeostasis. CKD is tightly associated with accelerated cardiovascular disease and severe infections, and with premature death. Kidney failure without access to kidney replacement therapy is fatal - a reality in many regions of the world. CKD can be the consequence of a single cause, but CKD in adults frequently relates rather to sequential injuries accumulating over the life course or to the presence of concomitant risk factors. The shared pathomechanism of CKD progression is the irreversible loss of kidney cells or nephrons together with haemodynamic and metabolic overload of the remaining nephrons, leading to further loss of kidney cells or nephrons. The management of patients with CKD focuses on early detection and on controlling all modifiable risk factors. This approach includes reducing the overload of the remaining nephrons with inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin system and the sodium-glucose transporter 2, as well as disease-specific drug interventions, if available. Hypertension, anaemia, metabolic acidosis and secondary hyperparathyroidism contribute to cardiovascular morbidity and reduced quality of life, and require diagnosis and treatment.

Chest X-ray Findings and Prognostic Factors in Survival Analysis in Peritoneal Dialysis and Hemodialysis Patients: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background and Objectives: This study aims to analyze survival in peritoneal and hemodialysis patients using chest radiography and biochemical parameters, determine common dialysis etiologies and causes of death, reveal prognostic factors, and contribute to clinical practice. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted with data from 33 peritoneal dialysis and 37 hemodialysis patients collected between October 2018 and February 2020. Survival and mortality were retrospectively tracked over 70 months (October 2018-June 2024). Chest X-ray measurements (cardiothoracic index, pulmonary vascular pedicle width, right pulmonary artery diameter, diaphragmatic height) and biochemical parameters (urea, albumin, creatinine, parathormone, ferritin, hemoglobin, arterial blood gas, potassium) were analyzed for their impact on survival. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Bayesian analysis, McNemar test, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox regression, Bayesian correlation test, linear regression analysis (scatter plot), and ROC analysis. SPSS 20.0 was used for data analysis, with p < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: Hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and urogenital disorders were the main dialysis etiologies. Peritonitis (38.5%) and cardiovascular diseases (47.4%) were the leading causes of death in peritoneal and hemodialysis patients, respectively. Significant chest X-ray differences included pulmonary vascular pedicle width and pulmonary artery diameter in hemodialysis and diaphragm height in peritoneal dialysis. Kaplan-Meier showed no survival difference between methods. Cox regression identified age, intact parathormone levels, iPTH/PVPW ratio, and clinical status as survival and mortality factors. The iPTH/PVPW ratio cut-off for mortality prediction was ≤6.8. Conclusions: Age, intact parathormone levels, pulmonary vascular pedicle width, and clinical status significantly impact survival in dialysis patients. Management of hypertension and diabetes, management and follow-up of urogenital disorders, infection control, patient education, and regular cardiovascular check-ups may improve survival rates. Additionally, the iPTH/PVPW ratio can predict mortality risk.

Peritoneal dialysis versus haemodialysis for people commencing dialysis

BACKGROUND

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) and haemodialysis (HD) are two possible modalities for people with kidney failure commencing dialysis. Only a few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated PD versus HD. The benefits and harms of the two modalities remain uncertain. This review includes both RCTs and non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the benefits and harms of PD, compared to HD, in people with kidney failure initiating dialysis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies from 2000 to June 2024 using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register were identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Search Portal, and ClinicalTrials.gov. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for NRSIs from 2000 until 28 March 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

RCTs and NRSIs evaluating PD compared to HD in people initiating dialysis were eligible.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two investigators independently assessed if the studies were eligible and then extracted data. Risk of bias was assessed using standard Cochrane methods, and relevant outcomes were extracted for each report. The primary outcome was residual kidney function (RKF). Secondary outcomes included all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related death, infection, cardiovascular disease, hospitalisation, technique survival, life participation and fatigue.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 153 reports of 84 studies (2 RCTs, 82 NRSIs) were included. Studies varied widely in design (small single-centre studies to international registry analyses) and in the included populations (broad inclusion criteria versus restricted to more specific participants). Additionally, treatment delivery (e.g. automated versus continuous ambulatory PD, HD with catheter versus arteriovenous fistula or graft, in-centre versus home HD) and duration of follow-up varied widely. The two included RCTs were deemed to be at high risk of bias in terms of blinding participants and personnel and blinding outcome assessment for outcomes pertaining to quality of life. However, most other criteria were assessed as low risk of bias for both studies. Although the risk of bias (Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) was generally low for most NRSIs, studies were at risk of selection bias and residual confounding due to the constraints of the observational study design. In children, there may be little or no difference between HD and PD on all-cause death (6 studies, 5752 participants: RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.07; I2 = 28%; low certainty) and cardiovascular death (3 studies, 7073 participants: RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.59; I2 = 29%; low certainty), and was unclear for infection-related death (4 studies, 7451 participants: RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.39 to 2.46; I2 = 56%; very low certainty). In adults, compared with HD, PD had an uncertain effect on RKF (mL/min/1.73 m2) at six months (2 studies, 146 participants: MD 0.90, 95% CI 0.23 to 3.60; I2 = 82%; very low certainty), 12 months (3 studies, 606 participants: MD 1.21, 95% CI -0.01 to 2.43; I2 = 81%; very low certainty) and 24 months (3 studies, 334 participants: MD 0.71, 95% CI -0.02 to 1.48; I2 = 72%; very low certainty). PD had uncertain effects on residual urine volume at 12 months (3 studies, 253 participants: MD 344.10 mL/day, 95% CI 168.70 to 519.49; I2 = 69%; very low certainty). PD may reduce the risk of RKF loss (3 studies, 2834 participants: RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.68; I2 = 17%; low certainty). Compared with HD, PD had uncertain effects on all-cause death (42 studies, 700,093 participants: RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98; I2 = 99%; very low certainty). In an analysis restricted to RCTs, PD may reduce the risk of all-cause death (2 studies, 1120 participants: RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.86; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty). PD had uncertain effects on both cardiovascular (21 studies, 68,492 participants: RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.19; I2 = 92%) and infection-related death (17 studies, 116,333 participants: RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.42; I2 = 98%) (both very low certainty). Compared with HD, PD had uncertain effects on the number of patients experiencing bacteraemia/bloodstream infection (2 studies, 2582 participants: RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 1.18; I2 = 68%) and the number of patients experiencing infection episodes (3 studies, 277 participants: RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.62; I2 = 20%) (both very low certainty). PD may reduce the number of bacteraemia/bloodstream infection episodes (2 studies, 2637 participants: RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.71; I2 = 24%; low certainty). Compared with HD; It is uncertain whether PD reduces the risk of acute myocardial infarction (4 studies, 110,850 participants: RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; I2 = 55%), coronary artery disease (3 studies, 5826 participants: RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.97; I2 = 62%); ischaemic heart disease (2 studies, 58,374 participants: RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.28; I2 = 95%), congestive heart failure (3 studies, 49,511 participants: RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.54 to 2.21; I2 = 89%) and stroke (4 studies, 102,542 participants: RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99; I2 = 0%) because of low to very low certainty evidence. Compared with HD, PD had uncertain effects on the number of patients experiencing hospitalisation (4 studies, 3282 participants: RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.30; I2 = 97%) and all-cause hospitalisation events (4 studies, 42,582 participants: RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.29; I2 = 91%) (very low certainty). None of the included studies reported specifically on life participation or fatigue. However, two studies evaluated employment. Compared with HD, PD had uncertain effects on employment at one year (2 studies, 593 participants: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.20 to 3.43; I2 = 97%; very low certainty).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The comparative effectiveness of PD and HD on the preservation of RKF, all-cause and cause-specific death risk, the incidence of bacteraemia, other vascular complications (e.g. stroke, cardiovascular events) and patient-reported outcomes (e.g. life participation and fatigue) are uncertain, based on data obtained mostly from NRSIs, as only two RCTs were included.