The Icelandic economic collapse, smoking, and the role of labor-market changes

Putting a price on pain: The monetary compensation needed to offset welfare losses due to violence

Efficiency calculations of violence prevention are likely to be severely biased if the hard-to-measure value of utility reductions due to victimization is not included. We measure the monetary compensation needed to offset the welfare loss associated with being subjected to violence, by applying the compensating-income-variation method to data from an Icelandic health-and-lifestyle survey carried out in 2017. We examine differences in the monetary compensation needed by (i) types of violence, (ii) duration since the exposure, and (iii) the relationship with the perpetrator. Our results show that the average compensation needed to offset the welfare loss due to psychological violence is $43,750 per year, $22,202 per year for sexual violence, and $10,938 per year for physical violence. Further, we find that the monetary compensation needed is highest when the perpetrator is a spouse or an ex-spouse, and when the violence happened recently.

Changes in Smoking Status and Behaviors After the First 10 Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

There remains inconclusive evidence on potential changes in smoking status and behaviors during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-9) pandemic, especially in developing countries.

AIMS AND METHODS

This study explores the direction of changes in smoking status and behaviors after 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia as well as examining the association between economic shocks and changes in smoking behaviors. Primary data were gathered through a phone survey targeting productive-age mobile-phone users in Indonesia (n = 1082). Descriptive analysis was employed to determine changes in smoking status and behaviors 10 months into the pandemic, while logistic regression analysis was used to investigate how employment shocks, financial strain, COVID-19-related indicators, and demographic characteristics were associated with smoking behaviors of people who continue smoking.

RESULTS

Respondents experiencing changes in smoking status were dominated by people who persistently smoked during the pandemic, while those who quit, relapsed, and started smoking, was extremely small. Nevertheless, a considerable portion of people who continue smoking adjusted their smoking behaviors: 40.3% reduced smoking intensity and 25.3% switched to lower-price cigarettes. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that, among people who continue smoking, those who experienced financial strain during the pandemic had higher odds of reducing smoking intensity, while those who switched to lower job status had higher odds of switching to cheaper cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

The research has shown that smoking status and behaviors of people who continue smoking mostly remained unchanged after 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in employment and financial conditions during the pandemic were associated with modified smoking behaviors.

IMPLICATIONS

This study is the first to determine the direction and analyze the factors of changes in smoking during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. This new understanding should help improve predicting the trends in smoking in future crises or pandemics in developing countries, specifically Indonesia. The discovered patterns on smokers' reaction to an exogenous shock may provide evidence to support tobacco control policies in Indonesia.

New evidence on the impact of the Great Recession on health-compromising behaviours

Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over the period 2004-2017, this paper explores the effects of the Great Recession and its aftermath upon health-compromising behaviours in adults aged 50 and over. We introduce new techniques into this area of research, namely dynamic random-effects logit estimators which control for initial conditions and correlated individual effects. We observe a lack of crisis effect upon the probabilities of smoking and being physically inactive, as well as of transitioning in and out of these behaviours. In line with other recent literature, this suggests that the relationship between economic recessions and smoking and physical inactivity may have broken down. Alternatively, the over 50s may have been protected from the crisis and subsequent austerity measures. Nonetheless, both the crisis and post-crisis period were associated with a lower probability of drinking frequently.

How did the 2008-11 financial crisis affect work-related common mental distress? Evidence from 393 workplaces in Great Britain

This paper analyses how the 2008-11 financial crisis relates to work-related common mental distress of those with continuous employment during the crisis. The literature connecting the 2008-11 financial crisis to common mental distress (anti-depressant drug use, suicide, etc.) generally estimates a negative effect. We used a sample of 393 workplaces from the 2011 Work and Employment Relations Study (WERS) for which employers and worker representatives agreed on that the crisis affected the workplace. WERS then provides detailed questions about how the financial crisis affected the workplace. We use these questions to show which crisis-induced work-changes are important for work-related common mental distress. In the British-context, increased workload and changes in nonfinancial benefits of work are most relevant worsening work-related common mental distress by 1.8 and 0.9 on a scale from 0-30 respectively.

Long-term Health Consequences of Adverse Labor Market Conditions at Time of Leaving Education: Evidence from West German Panel Data

Using longitudinal survey data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study ( N = 3,003 respondents with 22,165 individual-year observations) and exploiting temporal and regional variation in state-level unemployment rates in West Germany, we explore differences in trajectories of individuals' self-rated health over a period of up to 23 years after leaving education under different regional labor market conditions. We find evidence for immediate positive effects of contextual unemployment when leaving education on individuals' health. We find no evidence for generally accelerated or decelerated health deterioration when leaving education in high-unemployment contexts. We find, however, that individual unemployment experience when leaving education is associated with worse health and with more accelerated health deterioration in high-unemployment contexts. The cumulative experience of unemployment after leaving education does not mediate the influence of early labor market experiences for long-term health outcomes. In addition, our analyses indicate no gender differences in these results.

Income-related inequalities in diseases and health conditions over the business cycle

How business cycles affect income-related distribution of diseases and health disorders is largely unknown. We examine how the prevalence of thirty diseases and health conditions is distributed across the income spectrum using survey data collected in Iceland in 2007, 2009 and 2012. Thus, we are able to take advantage of the unusually sharp changes in economic conditions in Iceland during the Great Recession initiated in 2008 and the partial recovery that had already taken place by 2012 to analyze how income-related health inequality changed across time periods that can be described as a boom, crisis and recovery. The concentration curve and the concentration index are calculated for each disease, both overall and by gender. In all cases, we find a considerable income-related health inequality favoring higher income individuals, with a slight increase over the study period. Between 2007 and 2009, our results indicate increased inequality for women but decreased inequality for men. Between 2009 and 2012 on the contrary, men's inequality increases but women's decreases. The overarching result is thus that the economic hardship of the crisis temporarily increased female income-related health inequality, but decreased that of men.

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

Lifecycle effects of a recession on health behaviors: Boom, bust, and recovery in Iceland

This study uses individual-level longitudinal data from Iceland, a country that experienced a severe economic crisis in 2008 and substantial recovery by 2012, to investigate the extent to which the effects of a recession on health behaviors are lingering or short-lived and to explore trajectories in health behaviors from pre-crisis boom, to crisis, to recovery. Health-compromising behaviors (smoking, heavy drinking, sugared soft drinks, sweets, fast food, and tanning) declined during the crisis, and all but sweets continued to decline during the recovery. Health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruit, fish oil, and vitamins/minerals and getting recommended sleep) followed more idiosyncratic paths. Overall, most behaviors reverted back to their pre-crisis levels or trends during the recovery, and these short-term deviations in trajectories were probably too short-lived in this recession to have major impacts on health or mortality. A notable exception is for binge drinking, which declined by 10% during the 2 crisis years, continued to fall (at a slower rate of 8%) during the 3 recovery years, and did not revert back to the upward pre-crisis trend during our observation period. These lingering effects, which directionally run counter to the pre-crisis upward trend in consumption and do not reflect price increases during the recovery period, suggest that alcohol is a potential pathway by which recessions improve health and/or reduce mortality.

The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Substance Use Patterns in the Countries of the European Union

Background: From 2008 on, a severe economic crisis (EC) has characterized the European Union (E.U.). However, changes in substance use behavioral patterns as a result of the economic crisis in Europe, have been poorly reflected upon, and underlying mechanisms remain to be identified; Methods: In this review we explore and systematize the available data on the effect of the 2008 economic crisis on patterns of substance use and related disorders, within the E.U. countries; Results: The results show that effects of the recession need to be differentiated. A number of studies point to reductions in population’s overall substance use. In contrast, an increase in harmful use and negative effects is found within specific subgroups within the society. Risk factors include job-loss and long-term unemployment, and pre-existing vulnerabilities. Finally, our findings point to differences between types of substances in their response on economic crisis periods; Conclusions: the effects of the 2008 economic crisis on substance use patterns within countries of the European Union are two-sided. Next to a reduction in a population’s overall substance use, a number of vulnerable subgroups experience serious negative effects. These groups are in need of specific attention and support, given that there is a real risk that they will continue to suffer negative health effects long after the economic downfall has formally been ended.

Which group of smokers is more vulnerable to the economic crisis?

OBJECTIVES

Studies investigating whether smoking increases or decreases during economic downturn provided contrasting results. For the first time, we used direct questions to analyse changes in smoking behaviour due to the 2008 financial crisis, comparing socio-economic characteristics of smokers who changed with those who kept their smoking intensity.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

METHODS

We used data from three annual surveys conducted in Italy in 2012-2014 on representative samples of the Italian general population aged ≥15 years.

RESULTS

A total of 1919 current smokers were asked specific questions on the influence of the economic crisis that started in 2008 on their smoking behaviour. Overall, 77.4% of 1919 current smokers reported not to have changed their smoking behaviour, 19.1% to have reduced, and 3.5% to have increased their smoking intensity as a consequence of the economic crisis. The reduction in cigarette smoking increased with age: compared to the respondents aged <25 years, the multivariate odds ratio (OR) for those aged 25-44, 45-64 and ≥65 years were 0.65, 0.46 and 0.33, respectively (P for trend<0.001). Reduction was significantly lower among intermediate (OR = 0.68 compared to low) and high education levels (OR = 0.28; P for trend<0.001). A significant inverse trend for increasing consumption was observed with age (P = 0.022), education (P = 0.003) and family income (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The large majority of current smokers did not change their smoking habit following the economic crisis. However, there are specific vulnerable subgroups of smokers, constituted by the young and subjects with low socio-economic status, that were reactive to the global economic crisis. These groups are more prone to change their smoking behaviours, either for better or -, in a smaller proportion -, for worse.

Pregnancy-Induced Hypertensive Disorders before and after a National Economic Collapse: A Population Based Cohort Study

Background

Data on the potential influence of macroeconomic recessions on maternal diseases during pregnancy are scarce. We aimed to assess potential change in prevalence of pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders (preeclampsia and gestational hypertension) during the first years of the major national economic recession in Iceland, which started abruptly in October 2008.

Methods and Findings

Women whose pregnancies resulted in live singleton births in Iceland in 2005–2012 constituted the study population (N = 35,211). Data on pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders were obtained from the Icelandic Medical Birth Register and use of antihypertensive drugs during pregnancy, including β-blockers and calcium channel blockers, from the Icelandic Medicines Register. With the pre-collapse period as reference, we used logistic regression analysis to assess change in pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders and use of antihypertensives during the first four years after the economic collapse, adjusting for demographic and pregnancy characteristics, taking aggregate economic indicators into account. Compared with the pre-collapse period, we observed an increased prevalence of gestational hypertension in the first year following the economic collapse (2.4% vs. 3.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.47; 95 percent confidence interval [95%CI] 1.13–1.91) but not in the subsequent years. The association disappeared completely when we adjusted for aggregate unemployment rate (aOR 1.04; 95% CI 0.74–1.47). Similarly, there was an increase in prescription fills of β-blockers in the first year following the collapse (1.9% vs.3.1%; aOR 1.43; 95% CI 1.07–1.90), which disappeared after adjusting for aggregate unemployment rate (aOR 1.05; 95% CI 0.72–1.54). No changes were observed for preeclampsia or use of calcium channel blockers between the pre- and post-collapse periods.

Conclusions

Our data suggest a transient increased risk of gestational hypertension and use of β-blockers among pregnant women in Iceland in the first and most severe year of the national economic recession.