Informing management on the future structure of hospital care: an extrapolation of trends in demand and costs in lung diseases

Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050

BACKGROUND

Population aging will pose huge challenges for healthcare systems and will require a promotion of positive attitudes towards older people and the encouragement of careers in geriatrics to attract young professionals into the field and to meet the needs of a rapidly growing number of old-aged patients. We describe the current demographic profile of hospital care use in Denmark and make projections for changes in the patient profile up to 2050.

METHODS

The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hospital days up to 2050 with respect to age and sex.

RESULTS

The total number of hospital days per year is projected to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2050, from 4.66 to 6.72 million days. While small changes are projected for the population aged 0-69, the largest change is projected to occur for the population aged 70+. The 2013 levels were 0.82 and 0.93 million days for men and women aged 70+, respectively. By 2050, these levels are projected to have reached 1.94 and 1.84 million days. While the population aged 70+ accounted for 37.5% of all days in 2013, its contribution is projected to increase to 56.2% by 2050.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows one possible scenario for changes in the hospital days due to population aging by 2050: Assuming no changes in hospital care use over the forecast period, the absolute contribution of individuals aged 70+ to the total hospital days will more than double, and the relative contribution of persons aged 70+ will account for nearly 60% of all hospital days by 2050, being largest among men.

The contribution of symptoms and comorbidities to the economic impact of COPD: an analysis of the German COSYCONET cohort

Background

Although patients with COPD often have various comorbidities and symptoms, limited data are available on the contribution of these aspects to health care costs. This study analyzes the association of frequent comorbidities and common symptoms with the annual direct and indirect costs of patients with COPD.

Methods

Self-reported information on 33 potential comorbidities and symptoms (dyspnea, cough, and sputum) of 2,139 participants from the baseline examination of the German COPD cohort COSYCONET was used. Direct and indirect costs were calculated based on self-reported health care utilization, work absence, and retirement. The association of comorbidities, symptoms, and COPD stage with annual direct/indirect costs was assessed by generalized linear regression models. Additional models analyzed possible interactions between COPD stage, the number of comorbidities, and dyspnea.

Results

Unadjusted mean annual direct costs were €7,263 per patient. Other than COPD stage, a high level of dyspnea showed the strongest driving effect on direct costs (+33%). Among the comorbidities, osteoporosis (+38%), psychiatric disorders (+36%), heart disease (+25%), cancer (+24%), and sleep apnea (+21%) were associated with the largest increase in direct costs (p<0.01). A sub-additive interaction between advanced COPD stage and a high number of comorbidities reduced the independent cost-driving effects of these factors. For indirect costs, besides dyspnea (+34%), only psychiatric disorders (+32%) and age (+62% per 10 years) were identified as significant drivers of costs (p<0.04). In the subsequent interaction analysis, a high number of comorbidities was found to be a more crucial factor for increased indirect costs than single comorbidities.

Conclusion

Detailed knowledge about comorbidities in COPD is useful not only for clinical purposes but also to identify relevant cost factors and their interactions and to establish a ranking of major cost drivers. This could help in focusing therapeutic efforts on both clinically and economically important comorbidities in COPD.