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Díaz-Ruiz F, Descalzo E, Martínez-Jauregui M, Soliño M, Márquez AL, Farfán MÁ, Real R, Ferreras P, Delibes-Mateos M. Combining ranger records and biogeographical models to identify the current and potential distribution of an expanding mesocarnivore in southern Europe. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 946:174216. [PMID: 38914319 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2024] [Revised: 06/20/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024]
Abstract
Human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) are increasing and are potentially harmful to both people and wildlife. Understanding the current and potential distribution of wildlife species involved in HWC, such as carnivores, is essential for implementing management and conservation measures for such species. In this study, we assessed both the current distribution and potential distribution (forecast) of the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) in the central part of the Iberian Peninsula. We acquired data concerning mongoose occurrences through an online questionnaire sent to environmental rangers. We used the municipality level as the sampling unit because all municipalities within the study area were covered at least by one ranger. Using the information provided by rangers (i.e. occurrences in their municipalities), we constructed environmental favourability distribution models to assess current and potential mongoose distribution through current distribution models (CDM) and ecological models (EM), respectively. >300 rangers participated in the survey and mongooses were reported in a total of 181 of 921 municipalities studied. The CDM model showed a current distribution mainly concentrated on the western part of the study area, where intermediate-high favourability values predominated. The EM model revealed a wider potential distribution, including the south-east part of the study area, which was also characterised by intermediate-high favourability values. Our predictions were verified using independent data, including confirmation of mongoose reproduction by rangers, reports by other experts, and field sampling in some areas. Our innovative approach based on an online survey to rangers coupled with environmental favourability models is shown to be a useful methodology for assessing the current distribution of cryptic but expanding wildlife species, while also enabling estimations of future steps in their expansion. The approach proposed may help policy decision-makers seeking to ensure the conservation of expanding wildlife species, for example, by designing awareness campaigns in areas where the target species is expected to arrive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Díaz-Ruiz
- Conservation Biology Research Group, Departamento de Anatomía, Biología Celular y Zoología, Universidad de Extremadura, 06006 Badajoz, Spain; Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Dept. Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, 29071 Málaga, Spain
| | - Esther Descalzo
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ronda de Toledo 12, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - María Martínez-Jauregui
- Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR), INIA-CSIC, Ctra. de La Coruña km 7.5, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Mario Soliño
- Institute of Marine Research-CSIC, Department of Ecology and Marine Resources, C/Eduardo Cabello 6, Vigo, 36208, Pontevedra, Spain
| | - Ana Luz Márquez
- Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Dept. Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, 29071 Málaga, Spain
| | - Miguel Ángel Farfán
- Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Dept. Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, 29071 Málaga, Spain
| | - Raimundo Real
- Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Dept. Biología Animal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, 29071 Málaga, Spain
| | - Pablo Ferreras
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ronda de Toledo 12, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Miguel Delibes-Mateos
- Instituto de Estudios Sociales Avanzados (IESA-CSIC), Campo Santo de los Mártires 7, 14004 Córdoba, Spain.
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Zeller KA, Schroeder CA, Wan HY, Collins G, Denryter K, Jakes AF, Cushman SA. Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13402] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine A. Zeller
- U.S. Forest ServiceAldo Leopold Wilderness Research InstituteRocky Mountain Research Station Missoula MT USA
| | | | - Ho Yi Wan
- Department of Wildlife Humboldt State University CA USA
| | - Gail Collins
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceSheldon‐Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge Complex Lakeview OR USA
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Dar SA, Singh SK, Wan HY, Kumar V, Cushman SA, Sathyakumar S. Projected climate change threatens Himalayan brown bear habitat more than human land use. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- S. A. Dar
- Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India
| | | | - H. Y. Wan
- Department of Wildlife Humboldt State University Arcata CA USA
| | - V. Kumar
- Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India
| | - S. A. Cushman
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Flagstaff AZ USA
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How Important Are Resistance, Dispersal Ability, Population Density and Mortality in Temporally Dynamic Simulations of Population Connectivity? A Case Study of Tigers in Southeast Asia. LAND 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/land9110415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Development of landscape connectivity and spatial population models is challenging, given the uncertainty of parameters and the sensitivity of models to factors and their interactions over time. Using spatially and temporally explicit simulations, we evaluate the sensitivity of population distribution, abundance and connectivity of tigers in Southeast Asia to variations of resistance surface, dispersal ability, population density and mortality. Utilizing a temporally dynamic cumulative resistant kernel approach, we tested (1) effects and interactions of parameters on predicted population size, distribution and connectivity, and (2) displacement and divergence in scenarios across timesteps. We evaluated the effect of varying levels of factors on simulated population, cumulative resistance kernel extent, and kernel sum across nine timesteps, producing 24,300 simulations. We demonstrate that predicted population, range shifts, and landscape connectivity are highly sensitive to parameter values with significant interactions and relative strength of effects varying by timestep. Dispersal ability, mortality risk and their interaction dominated predictions. Further, population density had intermediate effects, landscape resistance had relatively low impacts, and mitigation of linear barriers (highways) via lowered resistance had little relative effect. Results are relevant to regional, long-term tiger population management, providing insight into potential population growth and range expansion across a landscape of global conservation priority.
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