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Madzokere ET, Hallgren W, Sahin O, Webster JA, Webb CE, Mackey B, Herrero LJ. Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:484. [PMID: 32967711 PMCID: PMC7510059 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04360-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Changes to Australia's climate and land-use patterns could result in expanded spatial and temporal distributions of endemic mosquito vectors including Aedes and Culex species that transmit medically important arboviruses. Climate and land-use changes greatly influence the suitability of habitats for mosquitoes and their behaviors such as mating, feeding and oviposition. Changes in these behaviors in turn determine future species-specific mosquito diversity, distribution and abundance. In this review, we discuss climate and land-use change factors that influence shifts in mosquito distribution ranges. We also discuss the predictive and epidemiological merits of incorporating these factors into a novel integrated statistical (SSDM) and mechanistic species distribution modelling (MSDM) framework. One potentially significant merit of integrated modelling is an improvement in the future surveillance and control of medically relevant endemic mosquito vectors such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris, implicated in the transmission of many arboviruses such as Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, and exotic mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We conducted a focused literature search to explore the merits of integrating SSDMs and MSDMs with biotic and environmental variables to better predict the future range of endemic mosquito vectors. We show that an integrated framework utilising both SSDMs and MSDMs can improve future mosquito-vector species distribution projections in Australia. We recommend consideration of climate and environmental change projections in the process of developing land-use plans as this directly impacts mosquito-vector distribution and larvae abundance. We also urge laboratory, field-based researchers and modellers to combine these modelling approaches. Having many different variations of integrated (SDM) modelling frameworks could help to enhance the management of endemic mosquitoes in Australia. Enhanced mosquito management measures could in turn lead to lower arbovirus spread and disease notification rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eugene T. Madzokere
- Institute for Glycomics, Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus, Southport, QLD 4215 Australia
| | - Willow Hallgren
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD 4222 Australia
| | - Oz Sahin
- Cities Research Institute, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD 4222 Australia
| | - Julie A. Webster
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, QLD 4006 Australia
| | - Cameron E. Webb
- Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, ICPMR, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145 Australia
- Marie Bashir Institute of Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 Australia
| | - Brendan Mackey
- Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith School of Environment, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD 4222 Australia
| | - Lara J. Herrero
- Institute for Glycomics, Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus, Southport, QLD 4215 Australia
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2
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Warchot A, Whelan P, Brown J, Vincent T, Carter J, Kurucz N. The Removal of Subterranean Stormwater Drain Sumps as Mosquito Breeding Sites in Darwin, Australia. Trop Med Infect Dis 2020; 5:tropicalmed5010009. [PMID: 31936813 PMCID: PMC7157592 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed5010009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2019] [Revised: 12/19/2019] [Accepted: 01/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Territory Top End Health Service, Medical Entomology Section and the City of Darwin council carry out a joint Mosquito Engineering Program targeting the rectification of mosquito breeding sites in the City of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. In 2005, an investigation into potential subterranean stormwater breeding sites in the City of Darwin commenced, specifically targeting roadside stormwater side entry pits. There were 79 side entry pits randomly investigated for mosquito breeding in the Darwin suburbs of Nightcliff and Rapid Creek, with 69.6% of the pits containing water holding sumps, and 45.6% of those water holding sumps breeding endemic mosquitoes. Culex quinquefasciatus was the most common mosquito collected, accounting for 73% of all mosquito identifications, with the potential vector mosquito Aedes notoscriptus also recovered from a small number of sumps. The sumps were also considered potential dry season maintenance breeding sites for important exotic Aedes mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, which are potential vectors of dengue, chickungunya and Zika virus. Overall, 1229 side entry pits were inspected in ten Darwin suburbs from 2005 to 2008, with 180 water holding sumps identified and rectified by concrete filling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allan Warchot
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Top End Health Service, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia; (J.C.); (N.K.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +61-8892-28337
| | - Peter Whelan
- Biting Insect Technical Extension Services, Nightcliff, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia;
| | - John Brown
- Civil Infrastructure, City of Darwin, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia; (J.B.); (T.V.)
| | - Tony Vincent
- Civil Infrastructure, City of Darwin, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia; (J.B.); (T.V.)
| | - Jane Carter
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Top End Health Service, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia; (J.C.); (N.K.)
| | - Nina Kurucz
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Top End Health Service, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, Northern Territory 0810, Australia; (J.C.); (N.K.)
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Yu J, Zhan C, Li Y, Zhou D, Fu Y, Chu X, Xing Q, Han G, Wang G, Guan B, Wang Q. Distribution of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in coastal wetland soil related land use in the Modern Yellow River Delta. Sci Rep 2016; 6:37940. [PMID: 27892492 PMCID: PMC5124950 DOI: 10.1038/srep37940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2016] [Accepted: 11/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The delivery and distribution of nutrients in coastal wetland ecosystems is much related to the land use. The spatial variations of TOC, TN, NH4+-N, NO3--N and TP and associated soil salinity with depth in 9 kinds land uses in coastal zone of the modern Yellow River Delta (YRD) was evaluated based on monitoring data in field from 2009 to 2015. The results showed that the average contents of soil TOC, TN, NO3--N, NH4+-N and TP were 4.21 ± 2.40 g kg-1, 375.91 ± 213.44, 5.36 ± 9.59 and 7.20 ± 5.58 and 591.27 ± 91.16 mg kg-1, respectively. The high N and C contents were found in cropland in southern part and low values in natural wetland, while TP was relatively stable both in profiles and in different land uses. The land use, land formation age and salinity were important factors influencing distributions of TOC and N. Higher contents of TOC and N were observed in older formation age lands in whole study region, while the opposite regulation were found in new-born natural wetland, indicating that the anthropogenic activities could greatly alter the original distribution regulations of nutrients in coastal natural wetlands by changing the regional land use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junbao Yu
- College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, P. R. China.,Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China
| | - Chao Zhan
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
| | - Yunzhao Li
- College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, P. R. China
| | - Di Zhou
- College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, P. R. China
| | - Yuqin Fu
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
| | - Xiaojing Chu
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
| | - Qinghui Xing
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
| | - Guangxuan Han
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China
| | - Guangmei Wang
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China
| | - Bo Guan
- Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, P. R. China
| | - Qing Wang
- College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, P. R. China
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Bayles BR, Brauman KA, Adkins JN, Allan BF, Ellis AM, Goldberg TL, Golden CD, Grigsby-Toussaint DS, Myers SS, Osofsky SA, Ricketts TH, Ristaino JB. Ecosystem Services Connect Environmental Change to Human Health Outcomes. ECOHEALTH 2016; 13:443-449. [PMID: 27357081 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-016-1137-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Revised: 04/18/2016] [Accepted: 05/30/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Brett R Bayles
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA.
| | - Kate A Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | | | - Brian F Allan
- Department of Entomology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - Alicia M Ellis
- Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Tony L Goldberg
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Christopher D Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Wildlife Health and Health Policy Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Samuel S Myers
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Steven A Osofsky
- Wildlife Health and Health Policy Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY, USA
| | - Taylor H Ricketts
- Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Jean B Ristaino
- Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
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Jacups SP, Carter J, Kurucz N, McDonnell J, Whelan PI. Determining meteorological drivers of salt marsh mosquito peaks in tropical northern Australia. JOURNAL OF VECTOR ECOLOGY : JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR VECTOR ECOLOGY 2015; 40:277-281. [PMID: 26611962 DOI: 10.1111/jvec.12165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2015] [Accepted: 05/01/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
In northern Australia the northern salt marsh mosquito Aedes vigilax is a vector of Ross River virus and is an appreciable pest. A coastal wetland adjacent to Darwin's residential suburbs offers a favorable habitat for Ae. vigilax, and despite vigilant mosquito control efforts, peaks of Ae. vigilax occur in excess of 500/trap/night some months. To improve mosquito control for disease and nuisance biting to nearby residential areas, we sought to investigate meteorological drivers associated with these Ae. vigilax peaks. We fitted a cross-sectional logistic regression model to weekly counts of female Ae. vigilax mosquitoes collected between July, 1998 and June, 2009 against variables, tide, rainfall, month, year, and larval control. Aedes vigilax peaks were associated with rainfall during the months September to November compared with January, when adjusted for larval control and tide. To maximize mosquito control efficiency, larval control should continue to be implemented after high tides and with increased emphasis on extensive larval hatches triggered by rainfall between September and November each year. This study reiterates the importance of monitoring and evaluating service delivery programs. Using statistical modelling, service providers can obtain solutions to operational problems using routinely collected data. These methods may be applicable in mosquito surveillance or control programs in other areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan P Jacups
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia.
| | - Jane Carter
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Darwin, NT, Australia
| | - Nina Kurucz
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Darwin, NT, Australia
| | - Joseph McDonnell
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Peter I Whelan
- Medical Entomology, Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory Department of Health, Darwin, NT, Australia
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Speldewinde PC, Slaney D, Weinstein P. Is restoring an ecosystem good for your health? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 502:276-9. [PMID: 25261817 PMCID: PMC7112007 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2014] [Revised: 09/10/2014] [Accepted: 09/11/2014] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
It is well known that the degradation of ecosystems can have serious impacts on human health. There is currently a knowledge gap on what impact restoring ecosystems has on human health. In restoring ecosystems there is a drive to restore the functionality of ecosystems rather than restoring ecosystems to 'pristine' condition. Even so, the complete restoration of all ecosystem functions is not necessarily possible. Given the uncertain trajectory of the ecosystem during the ecosystem restoration process the impact of the restoration on human health is also uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the restoration of ecosystems for human health is still a necessity.
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Affiliation(s)
- P C Speldewinde
- Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management, The University of Western Australia, PO Box 5771, Albany, Western Australia 6330, Australia.
| | - D Slaney
- Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, City East Campus, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
| | - P Weinstein
- University of South Australia, City East Campus, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Australia.
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