Quantitative modeling of tumor dynamics and radiotherapy

A Monte Carlo simulation-based decision support system for radiation oncologists in the treatment of glioblastoma multiforme

In the present research, we have developed a model-based crisp logic function statistical classifier decision support system supplemented with treatment planning systems for radiation oncologists in the treatment of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This system is based on Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation and it recreates visualization of treatment environments on mathematical anthropomorphic brain (MAB) phantoms. Energy deposition within tumour tissue and normal tissues are graded by quality audit factors which ensure planned dose delivery to tumour site thereby minimising damages to healthy tissues. The proposed novel methodology predicts tumour growth response to radiation therapy from a patient-specific medicine quality audit perspective. Validation of the study was achieved by recreating thirty-eight patient-specific mathematical anthropomorphic brain phantoms of treatment environments by taking into consideration density variation and composition of brain tissues. Dose computations accomplished through water phantom, tissue-equivalent head phantoms are neither cost-effective, nor patient-specific customized and is often less accurate. The above-highlighted drawbacks can be overcome by using open-source Electron Gamma Shower (EGSnrc) software and clinical case reports for MAB phantom synthesis which would result in accurate dosimetry with due consideration to the time factors. Considerable dose deviations occur at the tumour site for environments with intraventricular glioblastoma, haematoma, abscess, trapped air and cranial flaps leading to quality factors with a lower logic value of 0. Logic value of 1 depicts higher dose deposition within healthy tissues and also leptomeninges for majority of the environments which results in radiation-induced laceration.

Simulating tumor volume dynamics in response to radiotherapy: Implications of model selection

From the beginning of the usage of radiotherapy (RT) for cancer treatment, mathematical modeling has been integral to understanding radiobiology and for designing treatment approaches and schedules. There has been extensive modeling of response to RT with the inclusion of various degrees of biological complexity. In this study, we compare three models of tumor volume dynamics: (1) exponential growth with RT directly reducing tumor volume, (2) logistic growth with direct tumor volume reduction, and (3) logistic growth with RT reducing the tumor carrying capacity with the objective of understanding the implications of model selection and informing the process of model calibration and parameterization. For all three models, we: examined the rates of change in tumor volume during and RT treatment course; performed parameter sensitivity and identifiability analyses; and investigated the impact of the parameter sensitivity on the tumor volume trajectories. In examining the tumor volume dynamics trends, we coined a new metric - the point of maximum reduction of tumor volume (MRV) - to quantify the magnitude and timing of the expected largest impact of RT during a treatment course. We found distinct timing differences in MRV, dependent on model selection. The parameter identifiability and sensitivity analyses revealed the interdependence of the different model parameters and that it is only possible to independently identify tumor growth and radiation response parameters if the underlying tumor growth rate is sufficiently large. Ultimately, the results of these analyses help us to better understand the implications of model selection while simultaneously generating falsifiable hypotheses about MRV timing that can be tested on longitudinal measurements of tumor volume from pre-clinical or clinical data with high acquisition frequency. Although, our study only compares three particular models, the results demonstrate that caution is necessary in selecting models of response to RT, given the artifacts imposed by each model.

An adaptive information-theoretic experimental design procedure for high-to-low fidelity calibration of prostate cancer models

The use of mathematical models to make predictions about tumor growth and response to treatment has become increasingly prevalent in the clinical setting. The level of complexity within these models ranges broadly, and the calibration of more complex models requires detailed clinical data. This raises questions about the type and quantity of data that should be collected and when, in order to maximize the information gain about the model behavior while still minimizing the total amount of data used and the time until a model can be calibrated accurately. To address these questions, we propose a Bayesian information-theoretic procedure, using an adaptive score function to determine the optimal data collection times and measurement types. The novel score function introduced in this work eliminates the need for a penalization parameter used in a previous study, while yielding model predictions that are superior to those obtained using two potential pre-determined data collection protocols for two different prostate cancer model scenarios: one in which we fit a simple ODE system to synthetic data generated from a cellular automaton model using radiotherapy as the imposed treatment, and a second scenario in which a more complex ODE system is fit to clinical patient data for patients undergoing intermittent androgen suppression therapy. We also conduct a robust analysis of the calibration results, using both error and uncertainty metrics in combination to determine when additional data acquisition may be terminated.

Investigating the Influence of Growth Arrest Mechanisms on Tumour Responses to Radiotherapy

Cancer is a heterogeneous disease and tumours of the same type can differ greatly at the genetic and phenotypic levels. Understanding how these differences impact sensitivity to treatment is an essential step towards patient-specific treatment design. In this paper, we investigate how two different mechanisms for growth control may affect tumour cell responses to fractionated radiotherapy (RT) by extending an existing ordinary differential equation model of tumour growth. In the absence of treatment, this model distinguishes between growth arrest due to nutrient insufficiency and competition for space and exhibits three growth regimes: nutrient limited, space limited (SL) and bistable (BS), where both mechanisms for growth arrest coexist. We study the effect of RT for tumours in each regime, finding that tumours in the SL regime typically respond best to RT, while tumours in the BS regime typically respond worst to RT. For tumours in each regime, we also identify the biological processes that may explain positive and negative treatment outcomes and the dosing regimen which maximises the reduction in tumour burden.

Evaluation of entropy and fractal dimension as biomarkers for tumor growth and treatment response using cellular automata

Cell-based models provide a helpful approach for simulating complex systems that exhibit adaptive, resilient qualities, such as cancer. Their focus on individual cell interactions makes them a particularly appropriate strategy to study cancer therapies' effects, which are often designed to disrupt single-cell dynamics. In this work, we propose them as viable methods for studying the time evolution of cancer imaging biomarkers (IBM). We propose a cellular automata model for tumor growth and three different therapies: chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and immunotherapy, following well-established modeling procedures documented in the literature. The model generates a sequence of tumor images, from which a time series of two biomarkers: entropy and fractal dimension, is obtained. Our model shows that the fractal dimension increased faster at the onset of cancer cell dissemination. At the same time, entropy was more responsive to changes induced in the tumor by the different therapy modalities. These observations suggest that the prognostic value of the proposed biomarkers could vary considerably with time. Thus, it is essential to assess their use at different stages of cancer and for different imaging modalities. Another observation derived from the results was that both biomarkers varied slowly when the applied therapy attacked cancer cells scattered along the automatons' area, leaving multiple independent clusters of cells at the end of the treatment. Thus, patterns of change of simulated biomarkers time series could reflect on essential qualities of the spatial action of a given cancer intervention.

Modelling Radiation Cancer Treatment with a Death-Rate Term in Ordinary and Fractional Differential Equations

Fractional calculus has recently been applied to the mathematical modelling of tumour growth, but its use introduces complexities that may not be warranted. Mathematical modelling with differential equations is a standard approach to study and predict treatment outcomes for population-level and patient-specific responses. Here, we use patient data of radiation-treated tumours to discuss the benefits and limitations of introducing fractional derivatives into three standard models of tumour growth. The fractional derivative introduces a history-dependence into the growth function, which requires a continuous death-rate term for radiation treatment. This newly proposed radiation-induced death-rate term improves computational efficiency in both ordinary and fractional derivative models. This computational speed-up will benefit common simulation tasks such as model parameterization and the construction and running of virtual clinical trials.

Opportunities for improving brain cancer treatment outcomes through imaging-based mathematical modeling of the delivery of radiotherapy and immunotherapy

Immunotherapy has become a fourth pillar in the treatment of brain tumors and, when combined with radiation therapy, may improve patient outcomes and reduce the neurotoxicity. As with other combination therapies, the identification of a treatment schedule that maximizes the synergistic effect of radiation- and immune-therapy is a fundamental challenge. Mechanism-based mathematical modeling is one promising approach to systematically investigate therapeutic combinations to maximize positive outcomes within a rigorous framework. However, successful clinical translation of model-generated combinations of treatment requires patient-specific data to allow the models to be meaningfully initialized and parameterized. Quantitative imaging techniques have emerged as a promising source of high quality, spatially and temporally resolved data for the development and validation of mathematical models. In this review, we will present approaches to personalize mechanism-based modeling frameworks with patient data, and then discuss how these techniques could be leveraged to improve brain cancer outcomes through patient-specific modeling and optimization of treatment strategies.

Simulating the behaviour of glioblastoma multiforme based on patient MRI during treatments

Glioblastoma multiforme is a brain cancer that still shows poor prognosis for patients despite the active research for new treatments. In this work, the goal is to model and simulate the evolution of tumour associated angiogenesis and the therapeutic response to glioblastoma multiforme. Multiple phenomena are modelled in order to fit different biological pathways, such as the cellular cycle, apoptosis, hypoxia or angiogenesis. This leads to a nonlinear system with 4 equations and 4 unknowns: the density of tumour cells, the [Formula: see text] concentration, the density of endothelial cells and the vascular endothelial growth factor concentration. This system is solved numerically on a mesh fitting the geometry of the brain and the tumour of a patient based on a 2D slice of MRI. We show that our numerical scheme is positive, and we give the energy estimates on the discrete solution to ensure its existence. The numerical scheme uses nonlinear control volume finite elements in space and is implicit in time. Numerical simulations have been done using the different standard treatments: surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy, in order to conform to the behaviour of a tumour in response to treatments according to empirical clinical knowledge. We find that our theoretical model exhibits realistic behaviours.

Model Calibration of Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Lung Tumour Dynamics for Anticancer Therapies

Individual curves for tumor growth can be expressed as mathematical models. Herein we exploited a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model to accurately predict the lung growth curves when using data from a clinical study. Our analysis included 19 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with specific hypofractionated regimens, defined as stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The results exhibited the utility of the PKPD model for testing growth hypotheses of the lung tumor against clinical data. The model fitted the observed progression behavior of the lung tumors expressed by measuring the tumor volume of the patients before and after treatment from CT screening. The changes in dynamics were best captured by the parameter identified as the patients’ response to treatment. Median follow-up times for the tumor volume after SBRT were 126 days. These results have proven the use of mathematical modeling in preclinical anticancer investigations as a potential prognostic tool.

Forecasting Individual Patient Response to Radiation Therapy in Head and Neck Cancer With a Dynamic Carrying Capacity Model

Purpose:

To model and predict individual patient responses to radiation therapy.

Methods and Materials:

We modeled tumor dynamics as logistic growth and the effect of radiation as a reduction in the tumor carrying capacity, motivated by the effect of radiation on the tumor microenvironment. The model was assessed on weekly tumor volume data collected for 2 independent cohorts of patients with head and neck cancer from the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center (MCC) and the MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) who received 66 to 70 Gy in standard daily fractions or with accelerated fractionation. To predict response to radiation therapy for individual patients, we developed a new forecasting framework that combined the learned tumor growth rate and carrying capacity reduction fraction (δ) distribution with weekly measurements of tumor volume reduction for a given test patient to estimate δ, which was used to predict patient-specific outcomes.

Results:

The model fit data from MCC with high accuracy with patient-specific δ and a fixed tumor growth rate across all patients. The model fit data from an independent cohort from MDACC with comparable accuracy using the tumor growth rate learned from the MCC cohort, showing transferability of the growth rate. The forecasting framework predicted patient-specific outcomes with 76% sensitivity and 83% specificity for locoregional control and 68% sensitivity and 85% specificity for disease-free survival with the inclusion of 4 on-treatment tumor volume measurements.

Conclusions:

These results demonstrate that our simple mathematical model can describe a variety of tumor volume dynamics. Furthermore, combining historically observed patient responses with a few patient-specific tumor volume measurements allowed for the accurate prediction of patient outcomes, which may inform treatment adaptation and personalization.

Towards an Image-Informed Mathematical Model of In Vivo Response to Fractionated Radiation Therapy

Simple Summary

Using medical imaging data and computational models, we develop a modeling framework to provide personalized treatment response forecasts to fractionated radiation therapy for individual tumors. We evaluate this approach in an animal model of brain cancer and forecast changes in tumor cellularity and vasculature.

Abstract

Fractionated radiation therapy is central to the treatment of numerous malignancies, including high-grade gliomas where complete surgical resection is often impractical due to its highly invasive nature. Development of approaches to forecast response to fractionated radiation therapy may provide the ability to optimize or adapt treatment plans for radiotherapy. Towards this end, we have developed a family of 18 biologically-based mathematical models describing the response of both tumor and vasculature to fractionated radiation therapy. Importantly, these models can be personalized for individual tumors via quantitative imaging measurements. To evaluate this family of models, rats (n = 7) with U-87 glioblastomas were imaged with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before, during, and after treatment with fractionated radiotherapy (with doses of either 2 Gy/day or 4 Gy/day for up to 10 days). Estimates of tumor and blood volume fractions, provided by diffusion-weighted MRI and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, respectively, were used to calibrate tumor-specific model parameters. The Akaike Information Criterion was employed to select the most parsimonious model and determine an ensemble averaged model, and the resulting forecasts were evaluated at the global and local level. At the global level, the selected model’s forecast resulted in less than 16.2% error in tumor volume estimates. At the local (voxel) level, the median Pearson correlation coefficient across all prediction time points ranged from 0.57 to 0.87 for all animals. While the ensemble average forecast resulted in increased error (ranging from 4.0% to 1063%) in tumor volume predictions over the selected model, it increased the voxel wise correlation (by greater than 12.3%) for three of the animals. This study demonstrates the feasibility of calibrating a model of response by serial quantitative MRI data collected during fractionated radiotherapy to predict response at the conclusion of treatment.

Bayesian Information-Theoretic Calibration of Radiotherapy Sensitivity Parameters for Informing Effective Scanning Protocols in Cancer

With new advancements in technology, it is now possible to collect data for a variety of different metrics describing tumor growth, including tumor volume, composition, and vascularity, among others. For any proposed model of tumor growth and treatment, we observe large variability among individual patients’ parameter values, particularly those relating to treatment response; thus, exploiting the use of these various metrics for model calibration can be helpful to infer such patient-specific parameters both accurately and early, so that treatment protocols can be adjusted mid-course for maximum efficacy. However, taking measurements can be costly and invasive, limiting clinicians to a sparse collection schedule. As such, the determination of optimal times and metrics for which to collect data in order to best inform proper treatment protocols could be of great assistance to clinicians. In this investigation, we employ a Bayesian information-theoretic calibration protocol for experimental design in order to identify the optimal times at which to collect data for informing treatment parameters. Within this procedure, data collection times are chosen sequentially to maximize the reduction in parameter uncertainty with each added measurement, ensuring that a budget of n high-fidelity experimental measurements results in maximum information gain about the low-fidelity model parameter values. In addition to investigating the optimal temporal pattern for data collection, we also develop a framework for deciding which metrics should be utilized at each data collection point. We illustrate this framework with a variety of toy examples, each utilizing a radiotherapy treatment regimen. For each scenario, we analyze the dependence of the predictive power of the low-fidelity model upon the measurement budget.

Radial basis function-generated finite difference scheme for simulating the brain cancer growth model under radiotherapy in various types of computational domains

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We extend the original mathematical model, i.e., Swanson's reaction-diffusion equation to the surfaces with no boundary, and we find a new numerical method based on a meshless approach for solving numerically Swanson's reaction-diffusion model in the square and on the sphere.

METHODS

To solve numerically the Swanson's reaction-diffusion model and its extension version, a collocation meshless technique, namely radial basis function-generated finite difference (RBF-FD) scheme is employed for approximating the spatial variables in the square domain and on the sphere, respectively. Also, to approximate the time variable of the studied models, a first-order semi-implicit backward Euler scheme is used. The resulting fully discrete scheme is a linear system of algebraic equations per time step that is solved via the biconjugate gradient stabilized (BiCGSTAB) iterative algorithm with a zero-fill incomplete lower-upper (ILU) preconditioner.

RESULTS

The numerical simulations show the growth of untreated and treated brain tumors with radiotherapy using estimated and clinical data (given from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of patients). Moreover, the results reported here can be used for improving the treatment strategies of the invasive brain tumor.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the developed numerical scheme in this paper, we can simulate the behavior of the invasive form of brain tumor response to radiotherapy. Also, we can see the effects of radiation response on the brain tumor cell concentration of individual patients. The proposed meshless technique, which is applied for solving numerically the studied model, does not depend on any background mesh or triangulation for approximation in comparison with mesh-dependent methods. Moreover, we apply this technique to the sphere via any set of distributed points easily.

Combining hypoxia-activated prodrugs and radiotherapy in silico: Impact of treatment scheduling and the intra-tumoural oxygen landscape

Hypoxia-activated prodrugs (HAPs) present a conceptually elegant approach to not only overcome, but better yet, exploit intra-tumoural hypoxia. Despite being successful in vitro and in vivo, HAPs are yet to achieve successful results in clinical settings. It has been hypothesised that this lack of clinical success can, in part, be explained by the insufficiently stringent clinical screening selection of determining which tumours are suitable for HAP treatments. Taking a mathematical modelling approach, we investigate how tumour properties and HAP-radiation scheduling influence treatment outcomes in simulated tumours. The following key results are demonstrated in silico: (i) HAP and ionising radiation (IR) monotherapies may attack tumours in dissimilar, and complementary, ways. (ii) HAP-IR scheduling may impact treatment efficacy. (iii) HAPs may function as IR treatment intensifiers. (iv) The spatio-temporal intra-tumoural oxygen landscape may impact HAP efficacy. Our in silico framework is based on an on-lattice, hybrid, multiscale cellular automaton spanning three spatial dimensions. The mathematical model for tumour spheroid growth is parameterised by multicellular tumour spheroid (MCTS) data.

A Cellular Automata Model of Oncolytic Virotherapy in Pancreatic Cancer

Oncolytic virotherapy is known as a new treatment to employ less virulent viruses to specifically target and damage cancer cells. This work presents a cellular automata model of oncolytic virotherapy with an application to pancreatic cancer. The fundamental biomedical processes (like cell proliferation, mutation, apoptosis) are modeled by the use of probabilistic principles. The migration of injected viruses (as therapy) is modeled by diffusion through the tissue. The resulting diffusion–reaction equation with smoothed point viral sources is discretized by the finite difference method and integrated by the IMEX approach. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations are done to quantitatively evaluate the correlations between various input parameters and numerical results. As we expected, our model is able to simulate the pancreatic cancer growth at early stages, which is calibrated with experimental results. In addition, the model can be used to predict and evaluate the therapeutic effect of oncolytic virotherapy.

Blackboard to Bedside: A Mathematical Modeling Bottom-Up Approach Toward Personalized Cancer Treatments

Cancers present with high variability across patients and tumors; thus, cancer care, in terms of disease prevention, detection, and control, can highly benefit from a personalized approach. For a comprehensive personalized oncology practice, this personalization should ideally consider data gathered from various information levels, which range from the macroscale population level down to the microscale tumor level, without omission of the central patient level. Appropriate data mined from each of these levels can significantly contribute in devising personalized treatment plans tailored to the individual patient and tumor. Mathematical models of solid tumors, combined with patient-specific tumor profiles, present a unique opportunity to personalize cancer treatments after detection using a bottom-up approach. Here, we discuss how information harvested from mathematical models and from corresponding in silico experiments can be implemented in preclinical and clinical applications. To conceptually illustrate the power of these models, one such model is presented, and various pertinent tumor and treatment scenarios are demonstrated in silico. The presented model, specifically a multiscale, hybrid cellular automaton, has been fully validated in vitro using multiple cell-line-specific data. We discuss various insights provided by this model and other models like it and their role in designing predictive tools that are both patient, and tumor specific. After refinement and parametrization with appropriate data, such in silico tools have the potential to be used in a clinical setting to aid in treatment protocols and decision making.

On the Immunological Consequences of Conventionally Fractionated Radiotherapy

Emerging evidence demonstrates that radiotherapy induces immunogenic death on tumor cells that emit immunostimulating signals resulting in tumor-specific immune responses. However, the impact of tumor features and microenvironmental factors on the efficacy of radiation-induced immunity remains to be elucidated. Herein, we use a calibrated model of tumor-effector cell interactions to investigate the potential benefits and immunological consequences of radiotherapy. Simulations analysis suggests that radiotherapy success depends on the functional tumor vascularity extent and reveals that the pre-treatment tumor size is not a consistent determinant of treatment outcomes. The one-size-fits-all approach of conventionally fractionated radiotherapy is predicted to result in some overtreated patients. In addition, model simulations also suggest that an arbitrary increase in treatment duration does not necessarily result in better tumor control. This study highlights the potential benefits of tumor-immune ecosystem profiling during treatment planning to better harness the immunogenic potential of radiotherapy.

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Radiotherapy success depends on radiation-induced tumor-specific immune responses

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Pre-treatment tumor size is not a consistent determinant of radiotherapy outcomes

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Increase in treatment duration does not necessarily result in better tumor control

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Tumor vascularity impacts antitumor efficacy of radiation-induced immune responses

A minimal modeling framework of radiation and immune system synergy to assist radiotherapy planning

Recent evidence indicates the ability of radiotherapy to induce local and systemic tumor-specific immune responses as a result of immunogenic cell death. However, fractionation regimes routinely used in clinical practice typically ignore the synergy between radiation and the immune system, and instead attempt to completely eradicate tumors by the direct lethal effect of radiation on cancer cells. This paradigm is expected to change in the near future due to the potential benefits of considering radiation-induced antitumor immunity during treatment planning. Towards this goal, we propose a minimal modeling framework based on key aspects of the tumor-immune system interplay to simulate the effects of radiation on tumors and the immunological consequences of radiotherapy. The impacts of tumor-associated vasculature and intratumoral oxygen-mediated heterogeneity on treatment outcomes are ininvestigated. The model provides estimates of the minimum radiation doses required for tumor eradication given a certain number of treatment fractions. Moreover, estimates of treatment duration for disease control given predetermined fractional radiation doses can be also obtained. Although theoretical in nature, this study motivates the development and establishment of immune-based decision-support tools in radiotherapy planning.

Optimal modality selection in external beam radiotherapy

The goal in external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for cancer is to maximize damage to the tumour while limiting toxic effects on the organs-at-risk. EBRT can be delivered via different modalities such as photons, protons and neutrons. The choice of an optimal modality depends on the anatomy of the irradiated area and the relative physical and biological properties of the modalities under consideration. There is no single universally dominant modality. We present the first-ever mathematical formulation of the optimal modality selection problem. We show that this problem can be tackled by solving the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of optimality, which reduce to an analytically tractable quartic equation. We perform numerical experiments to gain insights into the effect of biological and physical properties on the choice of an optimal modality or combination of modalities.

Modeling long-term tumor growth and kill after combinations of radiation and radiosensitizing agents

PURPOSE

Radiation therapy, whether given alone or in combination with chemical agents, is one of the cornerstones of oncology. We develop a quantitative model that describes tumor growth during and after treatment with radiation and radiosensitizing agents. The model also describes long-term treatment effects including tumor regrowth and eradication.

METHODS

We challenge the model with data from a xenograft study using a clinically relevant administration schedule and use a mixed-effects approach for model-fitting. We use the calibrated model to predict exposure combinations that result in tumor eradication using Tumor Static Exposure (TSE).

RESULTS

The model is able to adequately describe data from all treatment groups, with the parameter estimates taking biologically reasonable values. Using TSE, we predict the total radiation dose necessary for tumor eradication to be 110 Gy, which is reduced to 80 or 30 Gy with co-administration of 25 or 100 mg kg^-1 of a radiosensitizer. TSE is also explored via a heat map of different growth and shrinkage rates. Finally, we discuss the translational potential of the model and TSE concept to humans.

CONCLUSIONS

The new model is capable of describing different tumor dynamics including tumor eradication and tumor regrowth with different rates, and can be calibrated using data from standard xenograft experiments. TSE and related concepts can be used to predict tumor shrinkage and eradication, and have the potential to guide new experiments and support translations from animals to humans.

Optimizing multi-modal cancer treatment under 3D spatio-temporal tumor growth

In this paper we introduce a new mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) model that explicitly integrates the spread of cancer cells into a spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion (RD) model of cancer growth, while taking into account treatment effects. This linear but non-convex model appears to be the first of its kind by determining the optimal sequence of the typically prescribed cancer treatment methods-surgery (S), chemotherapy (C), and radiotherapy (R)-while minimizing the newly generated tumor cells for early-stage breast cancer in a unique three-dimensional (3D) spatio-temporal system. The quadratically-constrained cancer growth dynamics and treatment impact formulations are linearized by using linearization as well as approximation techniques. Under the supervision of medical oncologists and utilizing several literature resources for the parameter values, the effectiveness of treatment combinations for breast cancer specified with different sequences (i.e., SRC, SCR, CR, RC) are compared by tracking the number of cancer cells at the end of each treatment modality. Our results provide the optimal dosages for chemotherapy and radiation treatments, while minimizing the growth of new cancer cells.

The Evolution of Tumour Composition During Fractionated Radiotherapy: Implications for Outcome

Current protocols for delivering radiotherapy are based primarily on tumour stage and nodal and metastases status, even though it is well known that tumours and their microenvironments are highly heterogeneous. It is well established that the local oxygen tension plays an important role in radiation-induced cell death, with hypoxic tumour regions responding poorly to irradiation. Therefore, to improve radiation response, it is important to understand more fully the spatiotemporal distribution of oxygen within a growing tumour before and during fractionated radiation. To this end, we have extended a spatially resolved mathematical model of tumour growth, first proposed by Greenspan (Stud Appl Math 51:317-340, 1972), to investigate the effects of oxygen heterogeneity on radiation-induced cell death. In more detail, cell death due to radiation at each location in the tumour, as determined by the well-known linear-quadratic model, is assumed also to depend on the local oxygen concentration. The oxygen concentration is governed by a reaction-diffusion equation that is coupled to an integro-differential equation that determines the size of the assumed spherically symmetric tumour. We combine numerical and analytical techniques to investigate radiation response of tumours with different intratumoral oxygen distribution profiles. Model simulations reveal a rapid transient increase in hypoxia upon regrowth of the tumour spheroid post-irradiation. We investigate the response to different radiation fractionation schedules and identify a tumour-specific relationship between inter-fraction time and dose per fraction to achieve cure. The rich dynamics exhibited by the model suggest that spatial heterogeneity may be important for predicting tumour response to radiotherapy for clinical applications.

Combining radiation with hyperthermia: a multiscale model informed by in vitro experiments

Combined radiotherapy and hyperthermia offer great potential for the successful treatment of radio-resistant tumours through thermo-radiosensitization. Tumour response heterogeneity, due to intrinsic, or micro-environmentally induced factors, may greatly influence treatment outcome, but is difficult to account for using traditional treatment planning approaches. Systems oncology simulation, using mathematical models designed to predict tumour growth and treatment response, provides a powerful tool for analysis and optimization of combined treatments. We present a framework that simulates such combination treatments on a cellular level. This multiscale hybrid cellular automaton simulates large cell populations (up to 107 cells) in vitro, while allowing individual cell-cycle progression, and treatment response by modelling radiation-induced mitotic cell death, and immediate cell kill in response to heating. Based on a calibration using a number of experimental growth, cell cycle and survival datasets for HCT116 cells, model predictions agreed well (R2 > 0.95) with experimental data within the range of (thermal and radiation) doses tested (0-40 CEM43, 0-5 Gy). The proposed framework offers flexibility for modelling multimodality treatment combinations in different scenarios. It may therefore provide an important step towards the modelling of personalized therapies using a virtual patient tumour.

The role of Allee effect in modelling post resection recurrence of glioblastoma

Resection of the bulk of a tumour often cannot eliminate all cancer cells, due to their infiltration into the surrounding healthy tissue. This may lead to recurrence of the tumour at a later time. We use a reaction-diffusion equation based model of tumour growth to investigate how the invasion front is delayed by resection, and how this depends on the density and behaviour of the remaining cancer cells. We show that the delay time is highly sensitive to qualitative details of the proliferation dynamics of the cancer cell population. The typically assumed logistic type proliferation leads to unrealistic results, predicting immediate recurrence. We find that in glioblastoma cell cultures the cell proliferation rate is an increasing function of the density at small cell densities. Our analysis suggests that cooperative behaviour of cancer cells, analogous to the Allee effect in ecology, can play a critical role in determining the time until tumour recurrence.

Mathematical models of propagating fronts have been used to represent a wide variety of biological phenomena from action potentials in neural cells to invasive species in ecology and epidemic spreading. Here we show that when such models are used to predict the effects of external perturbations the results can be very sensitive to certain details of the local dynamics. For example, the post resection recurrence of tumour growth depends strongly on the density dependence of the proliferation of cancer cells. This suggests that targeting the cooperative behaviour of cancer cells could be an efficient strategy for delaying the recurrence of diffuse aggressive brain tumours.

Growth of adult spinal cord in knifefish: Development and parametrization of a distributed model

The study of indeterminate-growing organisms such as teleost fish presents a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of central nervous tissue growth during adulthood. Integrating the existing experimental data associated with this process into a theoretical framework through mathematical or computational modeling provides further research avenues through sensitivity analysis and optimization. While this type of approach has been used extensively in investigations of tumor growth, wound healing, and bone regeneration, the development of nervous tissue has been rarely studied within a modeling framework. To address this gap, the present work introduces a distributed model of spinal cord growth in the knifefish Apteronotus leptorhynchus, an established teleostean model of adult growth in the central nervous system. The proposed model incorporates two mechanisms, cell proliferation by active stem/progenitor cells and cell drift due to population pressure, both of which are subject to global constraints. A coupled reaction-diffusion equation approach was adopted to represent the densities of actively-proliferating and non-proliferating cells along the longitudinal axis of the spinal cord. Computer simulations using this model yielded biologically-feasible growth trajectories. Subsequent comparisons with whole-organism growth curves allowed the estimation of previously-unknown parameters, such as relative growth rates.

An agent-based model of triple-negative breast cancer: the interplay between chemokine receptor CCR5 expression, cancer stem cells, and hypoxia

Background

Triple-negative breast cancer lacks estrogen, progesterone, and HER2 receptors and is thus not possible to treat with targeted therapies for these receptors. Therefore, a greater understanding of triple-negative breast cancer is necessary for the treatment of this cancer type. In previous work from our laboratory, we found that chemokine ligand-receptor CCL5-CCR5 axis is important for the metastasis of human triple-negative breast cancer cell MDA-MB-231 to the lymph nodes and lungs, in a mouse xenograft model. We collected relevant experimental data from our and other laboratories for numbers of cancer stem cells, numbers of CCR5+ cells, and cell migration rates for different breast cancer cell lines and different experimental conditions.

Results

Using these experimental data we developed an in silico agent-based model of triple-negative breast cancer that considers surface receptor CCR5-high and CCR5-low cells and breast cancer stem cells, to predict the tumor growth rate and spatio-temporal distribution of cells in primary tumors. We find that high cancer stem cell percentages greatly increase tumor growth. We find that anti-stem cell treatment decreases tumor growth but may not lead to dormancy unless all stem cells get eliminated. We further find that hypoxia increases overall tumor growth and treatment with a CCR5 inhibitor maraviroc slightly decreases overall tumor growth. We also characterize 3D shapes of solid and invasive tumors using several shape metrics.

Conclusions

Breast cancer stem cells and CCR5+ cells affect the overall growth and morphology of breast tumors. In silico drug treatments demonstrate limited efficacy of incomplete inhibition of cancer stem cells after which tumor growth recurs, and CCR5 inhibition causes only a slight reduction in tumor growth.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12918-017-0445-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting Patient-Specific Radiotherapy Protocols Based on Mathematical Model Choice for Proliferation Saturation Index

Radiation is commonly used in cancer treatment. Over 50% of all cancer patients will undergo radiotherapy (RT) as part of cancer care. Scientific advances in RT have primarily focused on the physical characteristics of treatment including beam quality and delivery. Only recently have inroads been made into utilizing tumor biology and radiobiology to design more appropriate RT protocols. Tumors are composites of proliferating and growth-arrested cells, and overall response depends on their respective proportions at irradiation. Prokopiou et al. (Radiat Oncol 10:159, 2015) developed the concept of the proliferation saturation index (PSI) to augment the clinical decision process associated with RT. This framework is based on the application of the logistic equation to pre-treatment imaging data in order to estimate a patient-specific tumor carrying capacity, which is then used to recommend a specific RT protocol. It is unclear, however, how dependent clinical recommendations are on the underlying tumor growth law. We discuss a PSI framework with a generalized logistic equation that can capture kinetics of different well-known growth laws including logistic and Gompertzian growth. Estimation of model parameters on the basis of clinical data revealed that the generalized logistic model can describe data equally well for a wide range of the generalized logistic exponent value. Clinical recommendations based on the calculated PSI, however, are strongly dependent on the specific growth law assumed. Our analysis suggests that the PSI framework may best be utilized in clinical practice when the underlying tumor growth law is known, or when sufficiently many tumor growth models suggest similar fractionation protocols.

Optimizing radiotherapy protocols using computer automata to model tumour cell death as a function of oxygen diffusion processes

The concept of hypofractionation is gaining momentum in radiation oncology centres, enabled by recent advances in radiotherapy apparatus. The gain of efficacy of this innovative treatment must be defined. We present a computer model based on translational murine data for in silico testing and optimization of various radiotherapy protocols with respect to tumour resistance and the microenvironment heterogeneity. This model combines automata approaches with image processing algorithms to simulate the cellular response of tumours exposed to ionizing radiation, modelling the alteration of oxygen permeabilization in blood vessels against repeated doses, and introducing mitotic catastrophe (as opposed to arbitrary delayed cell-death) as a means of modelling radiation-induced cell death. Published data describing cell death in vitro as well as tumour oxygenation in vivo are used to inform parameters. Our model is validated by comparing simulations to in vivo data obtained from the radiation treatment of mice transplanted with human prostate tumours. We then predict the efficacy of untested hypofractionation protocols, hypothesizing that tumour control can be optimized by adjusting daily radiation dosage as a function of the degree of hypoxia in the tumour environment. Further biological refinement of this tool will permit the rapid development of more sophisticated strategies for radiotherapy.

Predicting the Influence of Microvascular Structure On Tumor Response to Radiotherapy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to investigate how theoretical predictions of tumor response to radiotherapy (RT) depend on the morphology and spatial representation of the microvascular network.

METHODS

A hybrid multiscale model, which couples a cellular automaton model of tumor growth with a model for oxygen transport from blood vessels, is used to predict the viable fraction of cells following one week of simulated RT. Both artificial and biologically derived three-dimensional (3-D) vessel networks of well vascularized tumors are considered and predictions compared with 2-D descriptions.

RESULTS

For literature-derived values of the cellular oxygen consumption rate there is little difference in predicted viable fraction when 3-D network representations of biological or artificial vessel networks are employed. Different 2-D representations are shown to either over- or under-estimate viable fractions relative to the 3-D cases, with predictions based on point-wise descriptions shown to have greater sensitivity to vessel network morphology.

CONCLUSION

The predicted RT response is relatively insensitive to the morphology of the microvessel network when 3-D representations are adopted, however, sensitivity is greater in certain 2-D representations.

SIGNIFICANCE

By using realistic 3-D vessel network geometries this study shows that real and artificial network descriptions and assumptions of spatially uniform oxygen distributions lead to similar RT response predictions in relatively small tissue volumes. This suggests that either a more detailed description of oxygen transport in the microvasculature is required or that the oxygen enhancement ratio used in the well known linear-quadratic RT response model is relatively insensitive to microvascular structure.

Optimal treatment and stochastic modeling of heterogeneous tumors

In this work we review past articles that have mathematically studied cancer heterogeneity and the impact of this heterogeneity on the structure of optimal therapy. We look at past works on modeling how heterogeneous tumors respond to radiotherapy, and take a particularly close look at how the optimal radiotherapy schedule is modified by the presence of heterogeneity. In addition, we review past works on the study of optimal chemotherapy when dealing with heterogeneous tumors.

REVIEWERS

This article was reviewed by Thomas McDonald, David Axelrod, and Leonid Hanin.

Treatment Analysis in a Cancer Stem Cell Context Using a Tumor Growth Model Based on Cellular Automata

Cancer can be viewed as an emergent behavior in terms of complex system theory and artificial life, Cellular Automata (CA) being the tool most used for studying and characterizing the emergent behavior. Different approaches with CA models were used to model cancer growth. The use of the abstract model of acquired cancer hallmarks permits the direct modeling at cellular level, where a cellular automaton defines the mitotic and apoptotic behavior of cells, and allows for an analysis of different dynamics of the cellular system depending on the presence of the different hallmarks. A CA model based on the presence of hallmarks in the cells, which includes a simulation of the behavior of Cancer Stem Cells (CSC) and their implications for the resultant growth behavior of the multicellular system, was employed. This modeling of cancer growth, in the avascular phase, was employed to analyze the effect of cancer treatments in a cancer stem cell context. The model clearly explains why, after treatment against non-stem cancer cells, the regrowth capability of CSCs generates a faster regrowth of tumor behavior, and also shows that a continuous low-intensity treatment does not favor CSC proliferation and differentiation, thereby allowing an unproblematic control of future tumor regrowth. The analysis performed indicates that, contrary to the current attempts at CSC control, trying to make CSC proliferation more difficult is an important point to consider, especially in the immediate period after a standard treatment for controlling non-stem cancer cell proliferation.

Biphasic modulation of cancer stem cell-driven solid tumour dynamics in response to reactivated replicative senescence

OBJECTIVES

Cell senescence is a physiological programme of irreversible mitotic arrest that is triggered after a variety of intracellular and extracellular events. Its purpose is to protect tissue integrity by disabling mitosis in stressed or damaged cells. The senescence program serves as a tumour suppressor, and cancer cells are believed to bypass senescence to advance to malignancy. Recent studies have shown that senescence can be reactivated in cancer cells through a number of external perturbations, including oncogene activation, tumour suppressor gene withdrawal and irradiation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We have developed an agent-based model of solid tumour growth whose input population composition is based on the cancer stem-cell hypothesis. It is used to show how cancer stem cells can drive tumour progression, while non-stem cancer cells (CCs) interfere with this by impeding cancer stem-cell dynamics.

RESULTS

Here we show that intratumoural competition between the two cell types may arise to modulate tumour progression and ultimately cancer presentation risk. Model simulations reveal that reactivation of the replicative senescence programme in CCs initially increases total tumour burden, as attrition from cell death is partially averted, but evolves to provide tumour control in the long-term through increasing constraints on stem-cell compartment kinetics.

CONCLUSIONS

Reactivation of replicative senescence can prolong CC competition with cancer stem cells, thereby ultimately inhibiting malignant progression regardless of tumour size.

Selecting radiotherapy dose distributions by means of constrained optimization problems

The main steps in planning radiotherapy consist in selecting for any patient diagnosed with a solid tumor (i) a prescribed radiation dose on the tumor, (ii) bounds on the radiation side effects on nearby organs at risk and (iii) a fractionation scheme specifying the number and frequency of therapeutic sessions during treatment. The goal of any radiotherapy treatment is to deliver on the tumor a radiation dose as close as possible to that selected in (i), while at the same time conforming to the constraints prescribed in (ii). To this day, considerable uncertainties remain concerning the best manner in which such issues should be addressed. In particular, the choice of a prescription radiation dose is mostly based on clinical experience accumulated on the particular type of tumor considered, without any direct reference to quantitative radiobiological assessment. Interestingly, mathematical models for the effect of radiation on biological matter have existed for quite some time, and are widely acknowledged by clinicians. However, the difficulty to obtain accurate in vivo measurements of the radiobiological parameters involved has severely restricted their direct application in current clinical practice.In this work, we first propose a mathematical model to select radiation dose distributions as solutions (minimizers) of suitable variational problems, under the assumption that key radiobiological parameters for tumors and organs at risk involved are known. Second, by analyzing the dependence of such solutions on the parameters involved, we then discuss the manner in which the use of those minimizers can improve current decision-making processes to select clinical dosimetries when (as is generally the case) only partial information on model radiosensitivity parameters is available. A comparison of the proposed radiation dose distributions with those actually delivered in a number of clinical cases strongly suggests that solutions of our mathematical model can be instrumental in deriving good quality tests to select radiotherapy treatment plans in rather general situations.

Estimating dose painting effects in radiotherapy: a mathematical model

Tumor heterogeneity is widely considered to be a determinant factor in tumor progression and in particular in its recurrence after therapy. Unfortunately, current medical techniques are unable to deduce clinically relevant information about tumor heterogeneity by means of non-invasive methods. As a consequence, when radiotherapy is used as a treatment of choice, radiation dosimetries are prescribed under the assumption that the malignancy targeted is of a homogeneous nature. In this work we discuss the effects of different radiation dose distributions on heterogeneous tumors by means of an individual cell-based model. To that end, a case is considered where two tumor cell phenotypes are present, which we assume to strongly differ in their respective cell cycle duration and radiosensitivity properties. We show herein that, as a result of such differences, the spatial distribution of the corresponding phenotypes, whence the resulting tumor heterogeneity can be predicted as growth proceeds. In particular, we show that if we start from a situation where a majority of ordinary cancer cells (CCs) and a minority of cancer stem cells (CSCs) are randomly distributed, and we assume that the length of CSC cycle is significantly longer than that of CCs, then CSCs become concentrated at an inner region as tumor grows. As a consequence we obtain that if CSCs are assumed to be more resistant to radiation than CCs, heterogeneous dosimetries can be selected to enhance tumor control by boosting radiation in the region occupied by the more radioresistant tumor cell phenotype. It is also shown that, when compared with homogeneous dose distributions as those being currently delivered in clinical practice, such heterogeneous radiation dosimetries fare always better than their homogeneous counterparts. Finally, limitations to our assumptions and their resulting clinical implications will be discussed.

Towards predicting the response of a solid tumour to chemotherapy and radiotherapy treatments: clinical insights from a computational model

In this paper we use a hybrid multiscale mathematical model that incorporates both individual cell behaviour through the cell-cycle and the effects of the changing microenvironment through oxygen dynamics to study the multiple effects of radiation therapy. The oxygenation status of the cells is considered as one of the important prognostic markers for determining radiation therapy, as hypoxic cells are less radiosensitive. Another factor that critically affects radiation sensitivity is cell-cycle regulation. The effects of radiation therapy are included in the model using a modified linear quadratic model for the radiation damage, incorporating the effects of hypoxia and cell-cycle in determining the cell-cycle phase-specific radiosensitivity. Furthermore, after irradiation, an individual cell's cell-cycle dynamics are intrinsically modified through the activation of pathways responsible for repair mechanisms, often resulting in a delay/arrest in the cell-cycle. The model is then used to study various combinations of multiple doses of cell-cycle dependent chemotherapies and radiation therapy, as radiation may work better by the partial synchronisation of cells in the most radiosensitive phase of the cell-cycle. Moreover, using this multi-scale model, we investigate the optimum sequencing and scheduling of these multi-modality treatments, and the impact of internal and external heterogeneity on the spatio-temporal patterning of the distribution of tumour cells and their response to different treatment schedules.

Anti-cancer treatments such as radiotherapy and chemotherapy have evolved through clinical trial-and-error over decades, and although they cure some cases and are partially effective in many, the majority of such cancers ultimately recur. Doctors turn to new, expensive drugs as they emerge, but perhaps fail to study and learn how to use the therapies they already have most effectively. This is partly because clinical trials are expensive to conduct, both in terms of time and money. The cancer cell is complicated, but many mechanisms that control its response to treatment are now understood. We show here how a mathematical model accurately reproduces the results of previous biological experiments of cancer treatment, opening up the possibility of using it to predict which combinations of drugs and radiotherapy would be best for patients.

From patient-specific mathematical neuro-oncology to precision medicine

Gliomas are notoriously aggressive, malignant brain tumors that have variable response to treatment. These patients often have poor prognosis, informed primarily by histopathology. Mathematical neuro-oncology (MNO) is a young and burgeoning field that leverages mathematical models to predict and quantify response to therapies. These mathematical models can form the basis of modern “precision medicine” approaches to tailor therapy in a patient-specific manner. Patient-specific models (PSMs) can be used to overcome imaging limitations, improve prognostic predictions, stratify patients, and assess treatment response in silico. The information gleaned from such models can aid in the construction and efficacy of clinical trials and treatment protocols, accelerating the pace of clinical research in the war on cancer. This review focuses on the growing translation of PSM to clinical neuro-oncology. It will also provide a forward-looking view on a new era of patient-specific MNO.

Acute and fractionated irradiation differentially modulate glioma stem cell division kinetics

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is one of the most aggressive human malignancies with a poor patient prognosis. Ionizing radiation either alone or adjuvant after surgery is part of standard treatment for GBM but remains primarily noncurative. The mechanisms underlying tumor radioresistance are manifold and, in part, accredited to a special subpopulation of tumorigenic cells. The so-called glioma stem cells (GSC) are bestowed with the exclusive ability to self-renew and repopulate the tumor and have been reported to be less sensitive to radiation-induced damage through preferential activation of DNA damage checkpoint responses and increased capacity for DNA damage repair. During each fraction of radiation, non-stem cancer cells (CC) die and GSCs become enriched and potentially increase in number, which may lead to accelerated repopulation. We propose a cellular Potts model that simulates the kinetics of GSCs and CCs in glioblastoma growth and radiation response. We parameterize and validate this model with experimental data of the U87-MG human glioblastoma cell line. Simulations are conducted to estimate GSC symmetric and asymmetric division rates and explore potential mechanisms for increased GSC fractions after irradiation. Simulations reveal that in addition to their higher radioresistance, a shift from asymmetric to symmetric division or a fast cycle of GSCs following fractionated radiation treatment is required to yield results that match experimental observations. We hypothesize a constitutive activation of stem cell division kinetics signaling pathways during fractionated treatment, which contributes to the frequently observed accelerated repopulation after therapeutic irradiation.

Multispecies model of cell lineages and feedback control in solid tumors

We develop a multispecies continuum model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of cell lineages in solid tumors. The model accounts for protein signaling factors produced by cells in lineages, and nutrients supplied by the microenvironment. Together, these regulate the rates of proliferation, self-renewal and differentiation of cells within the lineages, and control cell population sizes and distributions. Terminally differentiated cells release proteins (e.g., from the TGFβ superfamily) that feedback upon less differentiated cells in the lineage both to promote differentiation and decrease rates of proliferation (and self-renewal). Stem cells release a short-range factor that promotes self-renewal (e.g., representative of Wnt signaling factors), as well as a long-range inhibitor of this factor (e.g., representative of Wnt inhibitors such as Dkk and SFRPs). We find that the progression of the tumors and their response to treatment is controlled by the spatiotemporal dynamics of the signaling processes. The model predicts the development of spatiotemporal heterogeneous distributions of the feedback factors (Wnt, Dkk and TGFβ) and tumor cell populations with clusters of stem cells appearing at the tumor boundary, consistent with recent experiments. The nonlinear coupling between the heterogeneous expressions of growth factors and the heterogeneous distributions of cell populations at different lineage stages tends to create asymmetry in tumor shape that may sufficiently alter otherwise homeostatic feedback so as to favor escape from growth control. This occurs in a setting of invasive fingering, and enhanced aggressiveness after standard therapeutic interventions. We find, however, that combination therapy involving differentiation promoters and radiotherapy is very effective in eradicating such a tumor.

Non-stem cancer cell kinetics modulate solid tumor progression

BACKGROUND

Solid tumors are heterogeneous in composition. Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are believed to drive tumor progression, but the relative frequencies of CSCs versus non-stem cancer cells span wide ranges even within tumors arising from the same tissue type. Tumor growth kinetics and composition can be studied through an agent-based cellular automaton model using minimal sets of biological assumptions and parameters. Herein we describe a pivotal role for the generational life span of non-stem cancer cells in modulating solid tumor progression in silico.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that although CSCs are necessary for progression, their expansion and consequently tumor growth kinetics are surprisingly modulated by the dynamics of the non-stem cancer cells. Simulations reveal that slight variations in non-stem cancer cell proliferative capacity can result in tumors with distinctly different growth kinetics. Longer generational life spans yield self-inhibited tumors, as the emerging population of non-stem cancer cells spatially impedes expansion of the CSC compartment. Conversely, shorter generational life spans yield persistence-limited tumors, with symmetric division frequency of CSCs determining tumor growth rate. We show that the CSC fraction of a tumor population can vary by multiple orders of magnitude as a function of the generational life span of the non-stem cancer cells.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that variability in the growth rate and CSC content of solid tumors may be, in part, attributable to the proliferative capacity of the non-stem cancer cell population that arises during asymmetric division of CSCs. In our model, intermediate proliferative capacities give rise to the fastest-growing tumors, resulting in self-metastatic expansion driven by a balance between symmetric CSC division and expansion of the non-stem cancer population. Our results highlight the importance of non-stem cancer cell dynamics in the CSC hypothesis, and may offer a novel explanation for the large variations in CSC fractions reported in vivo.