Importance of Initial Concentration of Factor VIII in a Mechanistic Model of In Vitro Coagulation

Critical evaluation of kinetic schemes for coagulation

Two well-established numerical representations of the coagulation cascade either initiated by the intrinsic system (Chatterjee et al., PLOS Computational Biology 2010) or the extrinsic system (Butenas et al., Journal of Biological Chemistry, 2004) were compared with thrombin generation assays under realistic pathological conditions. Biochemical modifications such as the omission of reactions not relevant to the case studied, the modification of reactions related to factor XI activation and auto-activation, the adaptation of initial conditions to the thrombin assay system, and the adjustment of some of the model parameters were necessary to align in vitro and in silico data. The modified models are able to reproduce thrombin generation for a range of factor XII, XI, and VIII deficiencies, with the coagulation cascade initiated either extrinsically or intrinsically. The results emphasize that when existing models are extrapolated to experimental parameters for which they have not been calibrated, careful adjustments are required.

Sensitivity analysis of a reduced model of thrombosis under flow: Roles of Factor IX, Factor XI, and γ'-Fibrin

A highly reduced extrinsic pathway coagulation model (8 ODEs) under flow considered a thin 15-micron platelet layer where transport limitations were largely negligible (except for fibrinogen) and where cofactors (FVIIa, FV, FVIII) were not rate-limiting. By including thrombin feedback activation of FXI and the antithrombin-I activities of fibrin, the model accurately simulated measured fibrin formation and thrombin fluxes. Using this reduced model, we conducted 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for ±50% variation of 5 plasma zymogens and 2 fibrin binding sites for thrombin. A sensitivity analysis of zymogen concentrations indicated that FIX activity most influenced thrombin generation, a result expected from hemophilia A and B. Averaging all MC simulations confirmed both the mean and standard deviation of measured fibrin generation on 1 tissue factor (TF) molecule per μm2. Across all simulations, free thrombin in the layer ranged from 20 to 300 nM (mean: 50 nM). The top 2% of simulations that produced maximal fibrin were dominated by conditions with low antithrombin-I activity (decreased weak and strong sites) and high FIX concentration. In contrast, the bottom 2% of simulations that produced minimal fibrin were dominated by low FIX and FX. The percent reduction of fibrin by an ideal FXIa inhibitor (FXI = 0) ranged from 71% fibrin reduction in the top 2% of MC simulations to only 34% fibrin reduction in the bottom 2% of MC simulations. Thus, the antithrombotic potency of FXIa inhibitors may vary depending on normal ranges of zymogen concentrations. This reduced model allowed efficient multivariable sensitivity analysis.

A local and global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model of coagulation and platelet deposition under flow

The hemostatic response involves blood coagulation and platelet aggregation to stop blood loss from an injured blood vessel. The complexity of these processes make it difficult to intuit the overall hemostatic response without quantitative methods. Mathematical models aim to address this challenge but are often accompanied by numerous parameters choices and thus need to be analyzed for sensitivity to such choices. Here we use local and global sensitivity analyses to study a model of coagulation and platelet deposition under flow. To relate with clinical assays, we measured the sensitivity of three specific thrombin metrics: lag time, maximum relative rate of generation, and final concentration after 20 minutes. In addition, we varied parameters of three different classes: plasma protein levels, kinetic rate constants, and platelet characteristics. In terms of an overall ranking of the model’s sensitivities, we found that the local and global methods provided similar information. Our local analysis, in agreement with previous findings, shows that varying parameters within 50-150% of baseline values, in a one-at-a-time (OAT) fashion, always leads to significant thrombin generation in 20 minutes. Our global analysis gave a different and novel result highlighting groups of parameters, still varying within the normal 50-150%, that produced little or no thrombin in 20 minutes. Variations in either plasma levels or platelet characteristics, using either OAT or simultaneous variations, always led to strong thrombin production and overall, relatively low output variance. Simultaneous variation in kinetics rate constants or in a subset of all three parameter classes led to the highest overall output variance, incorporating instances with little to no thrombin production. The global analysis revealed multiple parameter interactions in the lag time and final concentration leading to relatively high variance; high variance was also observed in the thrombin generation rate, but parameters attributed to that variance acted independently and additively.