On the Transformation of Genetic Effect Size from Logit to Liability Scale

Bayesian estimation of shared polygenicity identifies drug targets and repurposable medicines for human complex diseases

Background

Complex diseases may share portions of their polygenic architectures which can be leveraged to identify drug targets with low off-target potential or repurposable candidates. However, the literature lacks methods which can make these inferences at scale using publicly available data.

Methods

We introduce a Bayesian model to estimate the polygenic structure of a trait using only gene-based association test statistics from GWAS summary data and returns gene-level posterior risk probabilities (PRPs). PRPs were used to infer shared polygenicity between 496 trait pairs and we introduce measures that can prioritize drug targets with low off-target effects or drug repurposing potential.

Results

Across 32 traits, we estimated that 69.5 to 97.5% of disease-associated genes are shared between multiple traits, and the estimated number of druggable genes that were only associated with a single disease ranged from 1 (multiple sclerosis) to 59 (schizophrenia). Estimating the shared genetic architecture of ALS with all other traits identified the KIT gene as a potentially harmful drug target because of its deleterious association with triglycerides, but also identified TBK1 and SCN11B as putatively safer because of their non-association with any of the other 31 traits. We additionally found 21 genes which are candidate repourposable targets for Alzheimer's disease (AD) (e.g., PLEKHA1, PPIB) and 5 for ALS (e.g., GAK, DGKQ).

Conclusions

The sets of candidate drug targets which have limited off-target potential are generally smaller compared to the sets of pleiotropic and putatively repurposable drug targets, but both represent promising directions for future experimental studies.

DINGO: increasing the power of locus discovery in maternal and fetal genome-wide association studies of perinatal traits

Perinatal traits are influenced by fetal and maternal genomes. We investigate the performance of three strategies to detect loci in maternal and fetal genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of the same quantitative trait: (i) the traditional strategy of analysing maternal and fetal GWASs separately; (ii) a two-degree-of-freedom test which combines information from maternal and fetal GWASs; and (iii) a one-degree-of-freedom test where signals from maternal and fetal GWASs are meta-analysed together conditional on estimated sample overlap. We demonstrate that the optimal strategy depends on the extent of sample overlap, correlation between phenotypes, whether loci exhibit fetal and/or maternal effects, and whether these effects are directionally concordant. We apply our methods to summary statistics from a recent GWAS meta-analysis of birth weight. Both the two-degree-of-freedom and meta-analytic approaches increase the number of genetic loci for birth weight relative to separately analysing the scans. Our best strategy identifies an additional 62 loci compared to the most recently published meta-analysis of birth weight. We conclude that whilst the two-degree-of-freedom test may be useful for the analysis of certain perinatal phenotypes, for most phenotypes, a simple meta-analytic strategy is likely to perform best, particularly in situations where maternal and fetal GWASs only partially overlap.

Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization study of differential white blood cell counts and schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia and white blood cell counts (WBC) are both complex and polygenic traits. Previous evidence suggests that increased WBC are associated with higher all-cause mortality, and other studies have found elevated WBC in first-episode psychosis and chronic schizophrenia. However, these observational findings may be confounded by antipsychotic exposures and their effects on WBC. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a useful method for examining the directions of genetically-predicted relationships between schizophrenia and WBC.

METHODS

We performed a two-sample MR using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Schizophrenia Workgroup (N = 130,644) and the Blood Cell Consortium (N = 563,946). The MR methods included inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR Egger, weighted median, MR-PRESSO, contamination mixture, and a novel approach called mixture model reciprocal causal inference (MRCI). False discovery rate was employed to correct for multiple testing.

RESULTS

Multiple MR methods supported bidirectional genetically-predicted relationships between lymphocyte count and schizophrenia: IVW (b = 0.026; FDR p-value = 0.008), MR Egger (b = 0.026; FDR p-value = 0.008), weighted median (b = 0.013; FDR p-value = 0.049), and MR-PRESSO (b = 0.014; FDR p-value = 0.010) in the forward direction, and IVW (OR = 1.100; FDR p-value = 0.021), MR Egger (OR = 1.231; FDR p-value < 0.001), weighted median (OR = 1.136; FDR p-value = 0.006) and MRCI (OR = 1.260; FDR p-value = 0.026) in the reverse direction. MR Egger (OR = 1.171; FDR p-value < 0.001) and MRCI (OR = 1.154; FDR p-value = 0.026) both suggested genetically-predicted eosinophil count is associated with schizophrenia, but MR Egger (b = 0.060; FDR p-value = 0.010) and contamination mixture (b = -0.013; FDR p-value = 0.045) gave ambiguous results on whether genetically predicted liability to schizophrenia would be associated with eosinophil count. MR Egger (b = 0.044; FDR p-value = 0.010) and MR-PRESSO (b = 0.009; FDR p-value = 0.045) supported genetically predicted liability to schizophrenia is associated with elevated monocyte count, and the opposite direction was also indicated by MR Egger (OR = 1.231; FDR p-value = 0.045). Lastly, unidirectional genetic liability from schizophrenia to neutrophil count were proposed by MR-PRESSO (b = 0.011; FDR p-value = 0.028) and contamination mixture (b = 0.011; FDR p-value = 0.045) method.

CONCLUSION

This MR study utilised multiple MR methods to obtain results suggesting bidirectional genetic genetically-predicted relationships for elevated lymphocyte counts and schizophrenia risk. In addition, moderate evidence also showed bidirectional genetically-predicted relationships between schizophrenia and monocyte counts, and unidirectional effect from genetic liability for eosinophil count to schizophrenia and from genetic liability for schizophrenia to neutrophil count. The influence of schizophrenia to eosinophil count is less certain. Our findings support the role of WBC in schizophrenia and concur with the hypothesis of neuroinflammation in schizophrenia.

Direct and INdirect effects analysis of Genetic lOci (DINGO): A software package to increase the power of locus discovery in GWAS meta-analyses of perinatal phenotypes and traits influenced by indirect genetic effects

Perinatal traits are influenced by genetic variants from both fetal and maternal genomes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of these phenotypes have typically involved separate fetal and maternal scans, however, this approach may be inefficient as it does not utilize the information shared across the individual GWAS. In this manuscript we investigate the performance of three strategies to detect loci in maternal and fetal GWAS of the same trait: (i) the traditional strategy of analysing maternal and fetal GWAS separately; (ii) a novel two degree of freedom test which combines information from maternal and fetal GWAS; and (iii) a novel one degree of freedom test where signals from maternal and fetal GWAS are meta-analysed together conditional on the estimated sample overlap. We demonstrate through a combination of analytical formulae and data simulation that the optimal strategy depends on the extent of sample overlap/relatedness between the maternal and fetal GWAS, the correlation between own and offspring phenotypes, whether loci jointly exhibit fetal and maternal effects, and if so, whether these effects are directionally concordant. We apply our methods to summary results statistics from a recent GWAS meta-analysis of birth weight from deCODE, the UK Biobank and the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) consortium. Both the two degree of freedom (213 loci) and meta-analytic approach (226 loci) dramatically increase the number of robustly associated genetic loci for birth weight relative to separately analysing the scans (183 loci). Our best strategy identifies an additional 62 novel loci compared to the most recent published meta-analysis of birth weight and implicates both known and new biological pathways in the aetiology of the trait. We implement our methods in the online DINGO (Direct and INdirect effects analysis of Genetic lOci) software package, which allows users to perform one and/or two degree of freedom tests easily and computationally efficiently across the genome. We conclude that whilst the novel two degree of freedom test may be particularly useful for the analysis of certain perinatal phenotypes where many loci exhibit discordant maternal and fetal genetic effects, for most phenotypes, a simple meta-analytic strategy is likely to perform best, particularly in situations where maternal and fetal GWAS only partially overlap.

Preliminary Evidence for Genetic Nurture in Depression and Neuroticism Through Polygenic Scores

Importance

Modeling genetic nurture (ie, the effects of parental genotypes through influences on the environment experienced by their children) is essential to accurately disentangle genetic and environmental influences on phenotypic variance. However, these influences are often ignored in both epidemiologic and genetic studies of depression.

Objective

To estimate the association of genetic nurture with depression and neuroticism.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study jointly modeled parental and offspring polygenic scores (PGSs) across 9 traits to test for the association of genetic nurture with lifetime broad depression and neuroticism using data from nuclear families in the UK Biobank, with data collected between 2006 and 2019. A broad depression phenotype was measured in 38 702 offspring from 20 905 independent nuclear families, with most of these participants also reporting neuroticism scores. Parental genotypes were imputed from sibships or parent-offspring duos and used to calculate parental PGSs. Data were analyzed between March 2021 and January 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimates of genetic nurture and direct genetic regression coefficients on broad depression and neuroticism.

Results

This study of 38 702 offspring with data on broad depression (mean [SD] age, 55.5 [8.2] years at study entry; 58% female) found limited preliminary evidence for a statistically significant association of genetic nurture with lifetime depression and neuroticism in adults. The estimated regression coefficient of the parental depression PGS on offspring neuroticism (β = 0.04, SE = 0.02, P = 6.63 × 10-3) was estimated to be approximately two-thirds (66%) that of the offspring's depression PGS (β = 0.06, SE = 0.01, P = 6.13 × 10-11). Evidence for an association between parental cannabis use disorder PGS and offspring depression was also found (β = 0.08, SE = 0.03, P = .02), which was estimated to be 2 times greater than the association between the offspring's cannabis use disorder PGS and their own depression status (β = 0.04, SE = 0.02, P = .07).

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this cross-sectional study highlight the potential for genetic nurture to bias results from epidemiologic and genetic studies on depression or neuroticism and, with further replication and larger samples, identify potential avenues for future prevention and intervention efforts.

Time-varying effects are common in genetic control of gestational duration

Preterm birth is a major burden to neonatal health worldwide, determined in part by genetics. Recently, studies discovered several genes associated with this trait or its continuous equivalent-gestational duration. However, their effect timing, and thus clinical importance, is still unclear. Here, we use genotyping data of 31 000 births from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child cohort (MoBa) to investigate different models of the genetic pregnancy 'clock'. We conduct genome-wide association studies using gestational duration or preterm birth, replicating known maternal associations and finding one new fetal variant. We illustrate how the interpretation of these results is complicated by the loss of power when dichotomizing. Using flexible survival models, we resolve this complexity and find that many of the known loci have time-varying effects, often stronger early in pregnancy. The overall polygenic control of birth timing appears to be shared in the term and preterm, but not very preterm, periods and exploratory results suggest involvement of the major histocompatibility complex genes in the latter. These findings show that the known gestational duration loci are clinically relevant and should help design further experimental studies.

Reciprocal causation mixture model for robust Mendelian randomization analysis using genome-scale summary data

Mendelian randomization using GWAS summary statistics has become a popular method to infer causal relationships across complex diseases. However, the widespread pleiotropy observed in GWAS has made the selection of valid instrumental variables problematic, leading to possible violations of Mendelian randomization assumptions and thus potentially invalid inferences concerning causation. Furthermore, current MR methods can examine causation in only one direction, so that two separate analyses are required for bi-directional analysis. In this study, we propose a ststistical framework, MRCI (Mixture model Reciprocal Causation Inference), to estimate reciprocal causation between two phenotypes simultaneously using the genome-scale summary statistics of the two phenotypes and reference linkage disequilibrium information. Simulation studies, including strong correlated pleiotropy, showed that MRCI obtained nearly unbiased estimates of causation in both directions, and correct Type I error rates under the null hypothesis. In applications to real GWAS data, MRCI detected significant bi-directional and uni-directional causal influences between common diseases and putative risk factors.

Time-varying effects are common in genetic control of gestational duration

Preterm birth is a major burden to neonatal health worldwide, determined in part by genetics. Recently, studies discovered several genes associated with this trait or its continuous equivalent - gestational duration. However, their effect timing, and thus clinical importance, is still unclear. Here, we use genotyping data of 31,000 births from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child cohort (MoBa) to investigate different models of the genetic pregnancy "clock". We conduct genome-wide association studies using gestational duration or preterm birth, replicating known maternal associations and finding one new foetal variant. We illustrate how the interpretation of these results is complicated by the loss of power when dichotomizing. Using flexible survival models, we resolve this complexity and find that many of the known loci have time-varying effects, often stronger early in pregnancy. The overall polygenic control of birth timing appears to be shared in the term and preterm, but not very preterm periods, and exploratory results suggest involvement of the major histocompatibility complex genes in the latter. These findings show that the known gestational duration loci are clinically relevant, and should help design further experimental studies.

Polygenic power calculator: Statistical power and polygenic prediction accuracy of genome-wide association studies of complex traits

Power calculation is a necessary step when planning genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to ensure meaningful findings. Statistical power of GWAS depends on the genetic architecture of phenotype, sample size, and study design. While several computer programs have been developed to perform power calculation for single SNP association testing, it might be more appropriate for GWAS power calculation to address the probability of detecting any number of associated SNPs. In this paper, we derive the statistical power distribution across causal SNPs under the assumption of a point-normal effect size distribution. We demonstrate how key outcome indices of GWAS are related to the genetic architecture (heritability and polygenicity) of the phenotype through the power distribution. We also provide a fast, flexible and interactive power calculation tool which generates predictions for key GWAS outcomes including the number of independent significant SNPs, the phenotypic variance explained by these SNPs, and the predictive accuracy of resulting polygenic scores. These results could also be used to explore the future behaviour of GWAS as sample sizes increase further. Moreover, we present results from simulation studies to validate our derivation and evaluate the agreement between our predictions and reported GWAS results.