The distribution of an invasive fish species is highly affected by the presence of native fish species: evidence based on species distribution modelling

Testing spatial transferability of species distribution models reveals differing habitat preferences for an endangered delphinid (Cephalorhynchus hectori) in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict distributions in novel times or space (termed transferability) and fill knowledge gaps for areas that are data poor. In conservation, this can be used to determine the extent of spatial protection required. To understand how well a model transfers spatially, it needs to be independently tested, using data from novel habitats. Here, we test the transferability of SDMs for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori), a culturally important (taonga) and endangered, coastal delphinid, endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected summer distribution data from three populations from 2021 to 2023. Using Generalised Additive Models, we built presence/absence SDMs for each population and validated the predictive ability of the top models (with TSS and AUC). Then, we tested the transferability of each top model by predicting the distribution of the remaining two populations. SDMs for two populations showed useful performance within their respective areas (Banks Peninsula and Otago), but when used to predict the two areas outside the models' source data, performance declined markedly. SDMs from the third area (Timaru) performed poorly, both for prediction within the source area and when transferred spatially. When data for model building were combined from two areas, results were mixed. Model interpolation was better when presence/absence data from Otago, an area of low density, were combined with data from areas of higher density, but was otherwise poor. The overall poor transferability of SDMs suggests that habitat preferences of Hector's dolphins vary between areas. For these dolphins, population-specific distribution data should be used for conservation planning. More generally, we demonstrate that a one model fits all approach is not always suitable. When SDMs are used to predict distribution in data-poor areas an assessment of performance in the new habitat is required, and results should be interpreted with caution.

Response of fish communities to multiple pressures: Development of a total anthropogenic pressure intensity index

Lakes in Europe are subject to multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as eutrophication, habitat degradation and introduction of alien species, which are frequently inter-related. Therefore, effective assessment methods addressing multiple pressures are needed. In addition, these systems have to be harmonised (i.e. intercalibrated) to achieve common management objectives across Europe. Assessments of fish communities inform environmental policies on ecological conditions integrating the impacts of multiple pressures. However, the challenge is to ensure consistency in ecological assessments through time, across ecosystem types and across jurisdictional boundaries. To overcome the serious comparability issues between national assessment systems in Europe, a total anthropogenic pressure intensity (TAPI) index was developed as a weighted combination of the most common pressures in European lakes that is validated against 10 national fish-based water quality assessment systems using data from 556 lakes. Multi-pressure indices showed significantly higher correlations with fish indices than single-pressure indices. The best-performing index combines eutrophication, hydromorphological alterations and human use intensity of lakes. For specific lake types also biological pressures may constitute an important additional pressure. The best-performing index showed a strong correlation with eight national fish-based assessment systems. This index can be used in lake management for assessing total anthropogenic pressure on lake ecosystems and creates a benchmark for comparison of fish assessments independent of fish community composition, size structure and fishing-gear. We argue that fish-based multiple-pressure assessment tools should be seen as complementary to single-pressure tools offering the major advantage of integrating direct and indirect effects of multiple pressures over large scales of space and time.

Application of environmental DNA analysis to inform invasive fish eradication operations

Environmental DNA (eDNA) detection of non-native species has considerable potential to inform management decisions, including identifying the need for population control and/or eradication. An invasive species of European concern is the Asian cyprinid fish, topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva). Here, eDNA analyses were applied at a commercial angling venue in southern England to inform operations aiming to eradicate P. parva, which had only ever been observed in one of the venue's seven unconnected angling ponds. Eradication of P. parva was initially attempted by repeated depletion of the population using fish traps (crayfish traps fitted with 5 mm mesh netting) and the introduction of native predators over a 4-year period. The very low number of P. parva captured following these eradication efforts suggested a possible population crash. Conventional PCR analysis of water samples using species-specific primers was applied to all seven ponds to confirm that P. parva was present in only one pond, that the eradication attempt had indeed failed and that the species' distribution in the pond appeared to be restricted to three bankside locations. The continued presence of P. parva at these locations was confirmed by subsequent trapping. Water samples from an adjacent, unconnected stream were also analysed using the eDNA methodology, but no DNA of P. parva was detected. The results suggest that further management action to eradicate P. parva be focused on the pond shown to contain the isolated P. parva population and thereby eliminate the risk of further dispersal. This study is the first to apply eDNA analysis to assess the efficacy of an eradication attempt and to provide evidence that the species was unlikely to be present in the other ponds, thus reducing the resources needed to control the species.